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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 26, 2023

[ Wednesday, October 25, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, October 27, 2023 ]

DAY 26 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/27/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.38°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.039
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 279

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.20 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.09 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.33 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 4 in
SWE DAY: 68
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.49 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 106

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 64.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-27 04:00:04OBSERVATION20242610627.3799422.9899225.184934.40123791666670.200000000000051.244.095.33TF-4.62006279.3799468338.16534616746 1.48834614365490.03913662876769616 15244264WETL
2023-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20242610627.12219.27423.198401.044.095.13TF-4.878279.12267336.910626479461.34764250591780.0368990132202651615244264WETL
2023-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20242610628.83219.45424.143401.044.095.13TF-3.168280.83267336.910626479461.34764250591780.05386479576821615244264WETL
2023-10-26 08:00:02FORECAST20242610628.63419.34623.99401.044.095.13TF-3.366280.63467336.910626479461.34764250591780.0516307062637951615244264WETL
2023-10-26 04:00:04FORECAST20242610627.66220.33623.9994.2765662501.044.095.13TF-4.338279.66267337.093901463481.44160440207950.0417082321998631615244264WETL
2023-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20242610628.99419.88624.441.69520148241810.023622061.093622064.095.18362206TF-3.006275.99468336.373954154730.570221625729940.05574885115661615244264WETL
2023-10-25 20:00:02FORECAST20242610629.73219.95824.8450.0897953137690050.023622061.113622064.095.20362206TF-2.268276.73268335.305343843160.030108848558820.0649950970716331615244264WETL
2023-10-25 16:00:01FORECAST20242610629.35420.58824.971001.094.095.18TF-2.646276.35468335.2454443978400.0601210314595521615245280WETL
2023-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20242610629.80419.79624.80.6993077421094801.094.095.18TF-2.196276.80468335.711568266120.234765698804210.0659572205336021615244264WETL
2023-10-25 08:00:03FORECAST20242610629.49822.56826.0330.7656501258760901.124.095.21TF-2.502276.49868335.755745825960.257071429055270.0619430618051551615244264WETL
2023-10-25 04:00:06FORECAST20242610629.89420.2125.0521.082183840924801.24.095.29TF-2.106275.89468335.966423958880.363577435101580.067175297676541615244264WETL
2023-10-25 00:00:04FORECAST20242610629.4819.65224.5666.6139804173380.011811031.271811034.095.36181103TF-2.52278.4868339.621055331262.24624700927660.0617129866305521615244264WETL
2023-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20242610629.89420.13825.0161.51783966108301.144.095.23TF-2.106279.89468336.256110383490.510382860621570.067175297676541615244264WETL
2023-10-24 16:00:02FORECAST20242610629.85820.73225.2951.812046409875401.214.095.3TF-2.142279.85868336.451559937310.60966584128140.0666860029280781615244264WETL
2023-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20242610629.80421.4725.6374.4467170781560.023622061.283622064.095.37362206TF-2.196280.80468338.195348220791.50385903068630.0659572205336021615244264WETL
2023-10-24 08:00:03FORECAST20242610628.59820.24624.4224.67745298173030.015748041.315748044.095.40574804TF-3.402277.59868338.347508524421.58260456260860.0512325108248461615244264WETL
2023-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST20242610628.74219.95824.354.28965432947550.007874021.187874024.095.27787402TF-3.258279.74268338.091721138511.45029661534160.0528400204620321615244264WETL
2023-10-24 00:00:03FORECAST20242610628.65220.0324.3414.168506830203801.144.085.22TF-3.348276.65268338.011762023731.40900433868510.0518307215801621615244264WETL
2023-10-23 20:00:02FORECAST20242610629.28219.41824.354.169841475467801.154.085.23TF-2.718277.28268338.012643043091.40945913819360.0592258365140331615244264WETL
2023-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20242610628.65219.59824.1254.41623116064860.007874021.217874024.085.29787402TF-3.348275.65268338.17523741231.493460021220.0518307215801621615244264WETL
2023-10-23 12:00:02FORECAST20242610627.08619.0423.0633.953221463369201.054.085.13TF-4.914273.08668337.869609819081.3356733933570.036595176319941615244264WETL
2023-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20242610628.09417.34822.7213.929512265991601.064.085.14TF-3.906274.09468337.853949963471.32760124049520.0459096465678371615244264WETL
2023-10-23 04:00:05FORECAST20242610628.14817.52822.8383.992472112081401.074.085.15TF-3.852274.14868337.895532685061.3490384910420.0464578595027831615244264WETL
2023-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20242610627.64418.01422.8294.744366137366501.24.075.27TF-4.356270.64468338.391618165591.60545373439350.0415401455154411615244264WETL
2023-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20242610626.18616.64621.4164.852542488965901.194.075.26TF-5.814264.18668338.462912952071.64240566603910.0296390765600311615244264WETL
2023-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20242610630.39822.06426.2316.52621782942980.374015951.524015954.075.59401595TF-1.602269.39868339.563474152972.21606519924030.0743192473418641615254280WETL
2023-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20242610632.52221.84827.1856.98628099615730.440945121.640945124.075.71094512TF0.522270.52268339.865179683282.37439364607690.110861674079621615254280WETL
2023-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20242610634.19624.2629.2286.44111440541260.405512031.625512034.075.69551203TF2.196281.19668339.507625396822.18680745669090.147592281415951615254280WETL
2023-10-22 04:00:04FORECAST20242610631.96422.69427.3297.30594108784660.350393891.700393894.075.77039389TF-0.036000000000001272.96468340.074602575892.48456501189230.100208514465421615254280WETL
2023-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20242610632.2726.88829.57910.9838193902350.854331172.404331174.076.47433117TT0.27267.2768342.47194349353.76164997355550.105954459839841615253260WETL
2023-10-21 20:00:04FORECAST20242610633.7127.35630.5335.5223647799120.165354421.385354424.085.46535442TF1.71277.7168338.903930613061.87155113019130.13617799384741615244264WETL
2023-10-21 16:00:02FORECAST20242610632.75625.89829.3277.75153117402180.74803191.84803194.085.9280319TT0.756271.75668340.366243985342.63835955083710.115561778014991615253260WETL
2023-10-21 12:00:03FORECAST20242610638.80426.31232.5581.13108616659620.19685050.66685054.234.8968505TF6.804295.80468335.998957207370.380043772488010.286011879731681625234254WETM
2023-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20242610638.46230.23634.3490.0508696159020470.228346580.458346584.334.78834658TF6.462296.46268335.279379491790.0170555332546240.273980792102581625224236WETM
2023-10-21 04:00:06FORECAST20242610639.05628.50833.78200.122047310.132047314.254.38204731TF7.056302.05668335.2454443978400.295034375701581625225245WETM
2023-10-21 00:00:04FORECAST20242610643.84436.35640.100.311023790.661023794.184.84102379TF11.844309.84468335.2454443978400.484698547511411625235267.5WETMH
2023-10-20 20:00:04FORECAST20242610642.00835.8738.9390.230209715421150.338582860.828582864.185.00858286TF10.008303.00868335.398982205650.0772121042461040.408955226544661625234254WETM
2023-10-20 16:00:03FORECAST20242610641.43235.2438.33600.318897810.318897814.234.54889781TF9.432300.43268335.2454443978400.385744514872041625225245WETM
2023-10-20 12:00:03FORECAST20242610640.96435.79838.3811.18959934216260.484252231.724252234.185.90425223TT8.964299.96468336.037878955670.399750439747380.367178345531231625254290WETH
2023-10-20 08:00:03FORECAST20242610639.18232.70235.9422.46305530648220.555118411.615118414.25.81511841TF7.182289.18268336.883524060660.829762751604040.299594201266881625254290WETM
2023-10-20 04:00:06FORECAST20242610635.22225.30430.2635.94285916350610.224409571.434409574.095.52440957TF3.222285.22268339.180405178732.01570137899820.17373293193071615244264WETL
2023-10-20 00:00:03FORECAST20242610635.29426.52830.9113.6201362944510.169291430.749291434.084.82929143TF3.294269.29468337.649521574131.22233728785450.175671545594761615234248WETL
2023-10-19 20:00:04FORECAST20242610639.23627.89633.5664.9453960552360.169291431.129291434.115.23929143TF7.236274.23668338.524093470371.67413571645070.301558130332961625244272WETM
2023-10-19 16:00:04FORECAST20242610638.26426.31232.2886.367522801762501.44.15.5TF6.264273.26468339.4593214892.1615149698520.267131495102041625244272WETM
2023-10-19 12:00:03FORECAST20242610635.27624.3529.8137.72019926069530.440945121.660945124.085.74094512TF3.276262.27668340.345747845462.62753699089730.175185614980571615253260WETL
2023-10-19 08:00:03FORECAST20242610634.91623.0929.0037.73441299256390.342519871.552519874.15.65251987TF2.916259.91668340.35504612762.6324464908540.165646032275011615253260WETL
2023-10-19 04:00:05FORECAST20242610635.83427.62631.734.30421154789020.043307110.983307114.15.08330711TF3.834277.83468338.1013274591.4552596380060.190643983885411615234248WETL
2023-10-19 00:00:04FORECAST20242610633.45823.37828.4187.048274564629101.244.115.35TF1.458257.45868339.905807592712.39574945802540.130503028224971615244264WETL
2023-10-18 20:00:04FORECAST20242610634.82625.1629.9936.377490426632801.174.125.29TF2.826262.82668339.46586454712.16494030131770.163314501464091615244264WETL
2023-10-18 16:00:04FORECAST20242610639.14625.46632.3063.445015487020300.734.174.9TF7.146268.14668337.533734628881.16280894318830.298288140754581625234254WETM
2023-10-18 12:00:04FORECAST20242610637.61625.5231.5682.935814887812900.654.134.78TF5.616278.61668337.196766971820.989947288598270.245335815235181615234248WETL
2023-10-18 08:00:05FORECAST20242610637.86825.75431.8113.290846008939800.724.144.86TF5.868269.86868337.431757714241.11043595316340.25369688043781625234254WETL
2023-10-18 04:00:05FORECAST20242610641.25230.09235.6721.099979395307800.64.084.68TF9.252285.25268335.978263274420.369569166873160.378570039817851625234254WETM
2023-10-18 00:00:04FORECAST20242610642.51230.39836.455000.14.214.31TF10.512284.51268335.2454443978400.42953293553291625225245WETM
2023-10-17 20:00:04FORECAST20242610642.18831.53236.86000.094.164.25TF10.188280.18868335.2454443978400.416278746497011625215222.5WETM
2023-10-17 16:00:04FORECAST20242610643.93430.1137.0223.91870781949730.066929170.766929174.24.96692917TF11.934278.93468337.846813345321.32392294924850.488448592785481625234254WETM
2023-10-17 12:00:05FORECAST20242610639.0229.85834.4394.68614821837910.102362260.942362264.145.08236226TF7.02271.0268338.353240911781.58557343708150.293737458648721625234254WETM
2023-10-17 08:00:04FORECAST20242610639.0230.61434.8174.66077474368060.102362260.962362264.145.10236226TF7.02273.0268338.33651294081.57691027437940.293737458648721625234254WETM
2023-10-17 04:00:06FORECAST20242610639.03823.46831.2530.9135919763046100.064.314.37TF7.038269.03868335.854233869610.306833733271210.29438558776251625214218WETL
2023-10-17 00:00:03FORECAST20242610623.25220.76822.012.223142095675400.14.594.69TF-8.748231.25268336.724417483360.748586227149060.0141018313164761615224232WETL
2023-10-16 20:00:04FORECAST20242610629.10222.78425.9432.173142038046900.084.544.62TF-2.898243.10268336.691246039810.731677900611510.0570334171325711615214216WETL
2023-10-16 16:00:04FORECAST20242610621.95620.76821.3621.63550071981860.007874020.077874024.394.46787402TF-10.044234.95668336.334293354610.550074978881150.00988326854746081615214216WETL
2023-10-16 12:00:05FORECAST20242610630.30827.3228.8140.174597797076500.024.114.13TF-1.692265.30868335.361900196390.0585534489976780.0730028170786961615214216WETL
2023-10-16 08:00:05FORECAST20242610630.30827.3228.8140.3298689261204100.0244.02TF-1.692241.30868335.465421832590.110659618450450.0730028170786961615214216WETL
2023-10-16 04:00:06FORECAST20242610630.90229.60630.2541.66156846490250.047244120.217244123.924.13724412TF-1.098242.90268336.35161158880.558871230935090.0820271784482571615224232WETL