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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 27, 2023

[ Thursday, October 26, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 28, 2023 ]

DAY 27 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/28/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.065
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 248

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.67 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 67
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 337.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 107

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 32.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-28 04:00:03OBSERVATION20242710727.2800418.1599822.720015.19355916666670.0299999999999730.349999999999974.324.67TF-4.71996248.2800467337.70065423268 1.75386832837950.06474296871049816 15224232WETL
2023-10-28 00:00:01FORECAST20242710727.03216.68221.857400.324.324.64TF-4.968248.03266335.91698012771.34366792051080.0618152832017131615224232WETL
2023-10-27 12:00:01FORECAST20242710729.19217.9623.576400.324.324.64TF-2.808250.19266335.91698012771.34366792051080.0910257238853441615224232WETL
2023-10-27 08:00:01FORECAST20242710730.1118.44624.278400.324.324.64TF-1.89251.1166335.91698012771.34366792051080.106144806623881615224232WETL
2023-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20242710728.36417.11422.7394.401237916666700.324.324.64TF-3.636249.36466336.183842622491.47962507512080.0788103794033351615224232WETL
2023-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20242710729.04816.17822.613400.124.324.44TF-2.952250.04867336.910626479461.34764250591780.0888063488063691615224232WETL
2023-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20242710730.52417.47423.999400.124.324.44TF-1.476253.52467336.910626479461.34764250591780.113525146436291615224232WETL
2023-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20242710730.12818.19424.161400.124.324.44TF-1.872253.12867336.910626479461.34764250591780.106458328851491615224232WETL
2023-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20242710730.68618.53624.611400.124.324.44TF-1.314253.68667336.910626479461.34764250591780.116510165573171615224232WETL
2023-10-26 08:00:02FORECAST20242710729.51618.24823.882400.124.324.44TF-2.484252.51667336.910626479461.34764250591780.0961687496704241615224232WETL
2023-10-26 04:00:04FORECAST20242710728.14817.92423.0364.2765662500.124.324.44TF-3.852250.14867337.093901463481.44160440207950.0758372106165341615224232WETL
2023-10-26 00:00:03FORECAST20242710728.09415.92622.011.695201482418100.174.324.49TF-3.906246.09467335.378264568450.568533731267250.0751073929799691615224232WETL
2023-10-25 20:00:02FORECAST20242710729.15617.7823.4680.08979531376900500.194.324.51TF-2.844248.15667334.305585812550.0300190749727680.0904670734694811615224232WETL
2023-10-25 16:00:02FORECAST20242710728.9418.35623.648000.174.324.49TF-3.06246.9467334.2454583163100.0871683562540831615225240WETL
2023-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20242710729.76819.14824.4580.6993077421094800.174.324.49TF-2.232248.76867334.713356824980.234067641815160.100313729450621615224232WETL
2023-10-25 08:00:03FORECAST20242710729.2120.85825.0340.840043510076920.015748040.215748044.324.53574804TF-2.79247.2167334.80742103830.281252801168810.0913060036040991615224232WETL
2023-10-25 04:00:06FORECAST20242710729.58820.10224.8451.12276500095410.011811030.291811034.324.61181103TF-2.412247.58867334.996283310450.376122102350690.0973400107997131615224232WETL
2023-10-25 00:00:04FORECAST20242710728.65220.06624.3596.67282969037120.011811030.411811034.274.68181103TF-3.348248.65267338.676479093382.25993046512470.0829104307422641615224232WETL
2023-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20242710728.72419.88624.3051.51783966108300.44.144.54TF-3.276250.72467335.259972138970.508870882486120.0839600011643921615224232WETL
2023-10-24 16:00:03FORECAST20242710728.32819.16623.7471.812046409875400.474.144.61TF-3.672250.32867335.456165814030.60786214093390.0783088307942871615224232WETL
2023-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20242710728.4919.52624.0084.52577249196810.015748040.555748044.144.69574804TF-3.51251.4967337.258935275651.5263572119410.0805849084721981615234248WETL
2023-10-24 08:00:03FORECAST20242710726.25818.55422.4064.83587152381940.031496080.511496084.244.75149608TF-5.742246.25867337.464148782931.63193326740930.0533384863493381615234248WETL
2023-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST20242710725.50218.17621.8394.79988392883360.098425250.568425254.124.68842525TF-6.498247.50267337.440341646631.61967447280980.045972458853621615234248WETL
2023-10-24 00:00:03FORECAST20242710724.85418.82421.8394.65639276657870.086614220.486614224.134.61661422TF-7.146243.85467337.345395251131.5708126582860.0403281746473751615224232WETL
2023-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20242710726.65418.6822.6674.82443464393340.122047310.502047314.164.66204731TF-5.346245.65467337.456583096231.62803723031280.0575530030981241615234248WETL
2023-10-23 16:00:03FORECAST20242710726.88819.25623.0724.416231160648600.364.254.61TF-5.112244.88867337.186405724161.48909311190610.0601634829115061615224232WETL
2023-10-23 12:00:02FORECAST20242710725.62819.54422.5864.04681438436020.015748040.285748044.174.45574804TF-6.372240.62867336.941658498831.36354035030320.047140180599691615224232WETL
2023-10-23 08:00:04FORECAST20242710726.79819.27423.0364.03255069632070.015748040.195748044.274.46574804TF-5.202242.79867336.932203867491.35869619331870.0591487266450081615224232WETL
2023-10-23 04:00:05FORECAST20242710726.65418.73422.6944.16410185415190.027559070.207559074.284.48755907TF-5.346242.65467337.019389064621.40338306288910.0575530030981241615224232WETL
2023-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20242710727.33819.72423.5314.85013715980440.015748040.215748044.384.59574804TF-4.662240.33867337.473585430911.63679317715090.0654423131108441615224232WETL
2023-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20242710725.89818.5922.2444.852542488965900.194.384.57TF-6.102231.89867337.475176510621.63761263298910.0497222305806281615224232WETL
2023-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20242710730.43423.25226.84312.1143186745591.06299271.61299274.355.9629927TT-1.566241.43467342.234660270414.14593973599520.111890487281881615253260WETL
2023-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20242710731.02824.36827.69812.6288988515931.118110841.828110844.316.13811084TT-0.972244.02867342.568605186334.32626426462930.122993071178361615253260WETL
2023-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20242710732.32426.6929.50711.4183132492171.06299271.73299274.346.0729927TT0.324255.32467341.782281581193.90257715412610.149826656395051615253260WETL
2023-10-22 04:00:04FORECAST20242710730.75823.39627.07713.3457706452931.14173291.83173294.396.2217329TT-1.242245.75867343.033103448624.57804112236820.117854500649951615253260WETL
2023-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20242710733.72828.8531.28915.8261665231431.047244662.527244664.36.82724466TT1.728242.72867344.633769721825.45423142911590.182997614714831615252240WETL
2023-10-21 20:00:04FORECAST20242710734.66429.82232.2437.16407517106610.370078941.080078944.075.15007894TF2.664254.66467338.999727036112.42861952745760.207468287781941615244264WETM
2023-10-21 16:00:02FORECAST20242710733.4428.61631.02813.5722487179191.22047312.44047314.026.4604731TT1.44247.4467343.179674566054.65771989814510.175845270279321615253260WETL
2023-10-21 12:00:04FORECAST20242710742.72832.75637.7421.84563655557871.039370641.309370643.945.24937064TF10.728280.72867335.478556296490.619171487113580.479749283619971625244272WETM
2023-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20242710741.88233.58437.7332.01237640883161.153543931.403543933.855.25354393TF9.882279.88267335.589673291790.67533274157990.447897221397131625244272WETM
2023-10-21 04:00:06FORECAST20242710742.20636.2339.21801.114173831.234173833.574.80417383TF10.206286.20667334.2454583163100.460067525264871625245290WETM
2023-10-21 00:00:04FORECAST20242710741.95432.75637.35501.287402271.907402273.535.43740227TF9.954293.95467334.2454583163100.4505979083751716252552112.5WETM
2023-10-20 20:00:04FORECAST20242710741.84631.40636.6260.937938687764451.240158152.000158153.565.56015815TF9.846286.84667334.872831862340.314090184484930.44654777502621625254290WETM
2023-10-20 16:00:03FORECAST20242710741.39630.97436.1851.11354703343491.385827521.705827523.545.24582752TF9.396283.39667334.990127706070.373027262937080.429736860638151625254290WETM
2023-10-20 12:00:03FORECAST20242710740.3734.37637.3731.68820133321581.472441743.172441743.516.68244174TT8.37282.3767335.373596791010.566178153227960.391927158256891625254290WETH
2023-10-20 08:00:04FORECAST20242710739.6532.64836.1493.11797836178011.582678023.192678023.526.71267802TT7.65270.6567336.325267406121.04865490629220.365968651859971625254290WETH
2023-10-20 04:00:07FORECAST20242710736.8628.6732.7658.70230563893260.606299541.906299543.535.43629954TF4.86263.8667340.009304141282.95886488471820.271915567572371625253267.5WETM
2023-10-20 00:00:03FORECAST20242710736.26628.61632.4416.2963777130220.488189241.008189243.624.62818924TF4.266247.26667338.428494126322.13087362786850.253555282125141625244272WETM
2023-10-19 20:00:04FORECAST20242710737.97631.2834.6287.24078228387890.484252231.284252233.755.03425223TF5.976253.97667339.050165233172.45498842976660.308103128188041625244272WETM
2023-10-19 16:00:04FORECAST20242710739.14625.89832.5226.058448401762500.64.214.81TF7.146254.14667338.271637606942.04940126222140.348148130783591625234254WETM
2023-10-19 12:00:03FORECAST20242710737.7628.3133.0358.03208587139380.181102461.021102464.215.23110246TF5.76241.7667339.569907899242.72745465958790.300936011885181625243254WETM
2023-10-19 08:00:03FORECAST20242710737.16628.11232.6397.75160957208990.122047310.832047314.255.08204731TF5.166239.16667339.385805439522.63078625807640.28162508231221625233240.5WETM
2023-10-19 04:00:05FORECAST20242710738.71428.11233.4133.977720347890200.244.154.39TF6.714258.71467336.895856590331.34007750387930.333133975485241625224236WETM
2023-10-19 00:00:04FORECAST20242710736.48222.74829.6156.901953764629100.414.254.66TF4.482235.48267338.827296850142.33857033705390.260155690527781625224236WETL
2023-10-18 20:00:04FORECAST20242710738.31824.8931.6046.111515226632800.384.224.6TF6.318243.31867338.306630486762.06756612349070.319601223209041625224236WETL
2023-10-18 16:00:04FORECAST20242710739.41628.2233.8183.078672287020300.24.014.21TF7.416249.41667336.299151153431.03535487680450.357656113563691625224236WETM
2023-10-18 12:00:05FORECAST20242710741.21625.66433.442.657047687812900.23.894.09TF9.216262.21667336.018845810270.892818097321760.423046250346651625224236WETM
2023-10-18 08:00:06FORECAST20242710741.23425.8833.5573.015326008939800.233.944.17TF9.234253.23467336.25705630911.01392464757840.423714346921061625224236WETM
2023-10-18 04:00:06FORECAST20242710744.09630.61437.3550.3761489953077900.63.393.99TF12.096271.09667334.497238432520.125820800169620.531440297795841635234260DRYH
2023-10-18 00:00:04FORECAST20242710735.52834.23234.8800.043307110.043307113.623.66330711FF3.528262.52867334.2454583163100.231683659360111615215220DRYL
2023-10-17 20:00:04FORECAST20242710739.18234.39436.78800.043307110.043307113.563.60330711FF7.182261.18267334.2454583163100.349410519063091625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-17 16:00:04FORECAST20242710740.47835.34837.9133.688156619497300.363.924.28TF8.478261.47867336.70381955261.24181642089290.395865977013821625224236WETM
2023-10-17 12:00:05FORECAST20242710734.91633.85434.3854.578695418379100.463.934.39TF2.916247.91667337.293969396121.54436635232090.214372307843981615224232WETM
2023-10-17 08:00:04FORECAST20242710734.91633.85434.3854.553321943680600.473.944.41TF2.916249.91667337.277173154351.53573155362620.214372307843981615224232WETM
2023-10-17 04:00:06FORECAST20242710732.03630.05631.0460.91339517630461003.683.68FF0.036000000000001243.03667334.856434101030.305856251662440.143550849689621615214216DRYL