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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 25, 2023

[ Tuesday, October 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 26, 2023 ]

DAY 25 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/26/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.07°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.134
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 316

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 4 in
SWE DAY: 69
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.45 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 105

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 64.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-26 04:00:04OBSERVATION20242510534.0722.6999428.384974.276566250.121.054.085.13TF2.07316.0769339.0685147773 1.45004896673420.134416614589916 15244264WETL
2023-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20242510529.44420.62425.0341.5932778807540.145669371.075669374.085.15566937TF-2.556311.44468336.306239971620.535829293306340.0598770616552981615244264WETL
2023-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20242510529.26420.53424.8990.699307742109480.173228441.103228444.085.18322844TF-2.736311.26468335.711568266120.234765698804210.0578203231073471615244264WETL
2023-10-25 08:00:02FORECAST20242510528.95821.2925.1240.765650125876090.204724521.134724524.085.21472452TF-3.042310.95868335.755745825960.257071429055270.0544513728890181615244264WETL
2023-10-25 04:00:06FORECAST20242510528.2220.22824.2241.08218384092480.27559071.20559074.085.2855907TF-3.78310.2268335.966423958880.363577435101580.0469620831258791615244264WETL
2023-10-25 00:00:03FORECAST20242510530.0219.95824.9896.55098940054190.385826981.265826984.085.34582698TF-1.98313.0269340.559482442692.23100155973610.0668438248196281615244264WETL
2023-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20242510530.39821.63226.0151.5178396610830.401575021.151575024.085.23157502TF-1.602314.39869337.24847048570.511889104142780.0717449703910211615244264WETL
2023-10-24 16:00:02FORECAST20242510530.36222.126.2311.81204640987540.47244121.22244124.085.3024412TF-1.638314.36269337.443178740580.611462700573820.0712666790011791615244264WETL
2023-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20242510531.1922.83827.0144.317082944230.519685321.269685324.085.34968532TF-0.81315.1969339.095150376921.46390189016330.0828986391732731615244264WETL
2023-10-24 08:00:02FORECAST20242510529.67821.88425.7814.58268577184030.456693161.306693164.085.38669316TF-2.322312.67869339.269689317231.55476637805080.0626356781601081615244264WETL
2023-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST20242510530.68620.96625.8264.24854042153540.460630171.190630174.085.27063017TF-1.314314.68669339.05008904581.44046800823620.0756600489061581615244264WETL
2023-10-24 00:00:02FORECAST20242510529.82220.78625.3044.16850683020380.397638011.137638014.085.21763801TF-2.178311.82269338.997463309471.41311324122730.0643817388167821615244264WETL
2023-10-23 20:00:02FORECAST20242510530.18221.32625.7544.16984147546780.381889971.151889974.085.23188997TF-1.818312.18269338.998340987311.41356934236370.0689117382630061615244264WETL
2023-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20242510529.26421.3825.3224.37260630961620.350393891.210393894.085.29039389TF-2.736311.26469339.131646882541.48288917894910.0578203231073471615244264WETL
2023-10-23 12:00:02FORECAST20242510528.70620.76824.7373.95322146336920.271653691.051653694.085.13165369TF-3.294309.70669338.855850258161.33957222022880.0517947940202951615244264WETL
2023-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20242510529.10220.10224.6023.92951226599160.181102461.061102464.085.14110246TF-2.898310.10269338.840249797081.33147691778930.0560169676926481615244264WETL
2023-10-23 04:00:05FORECAST20242510528.72420.80424.7643.99247211208140.181102461.071102464.085.15110246TF-3.276309.72469338.881674804171.35297563595110.0519810794639671615244264WETL
2023-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20242510527.91419.63423.7744.74436613736650.19685051.19685054.075.2668505TF-4.086306.91469339.375878737081.61012342691920.0441089145073651615244264WETL
2023-10-22 20:00:02FORECAST20242510527.519.02223.2614.85254248896590.192913491.192913494.075.26291349TF-4.5302.569339.446903117471.64718052012540.0404723087764831615244264WETL
2023-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20242510528.1318.53623.3334.79927877620310.181102461.151102464.075.22110246TF-3.87303.1369339.411934676441.62893249448260.0461080045887721615244264WETL
2023-10-22 12:00:02FORECAST20242510527.91419.29223.6035.0303738064150.271653691.201653694.075.27165369TF-4.086301.91469339.563617834941.70813192876840.0441089145073651615244264WETL
2023-10-22 08:00:02FORECAST20242510534.5219.63427.0774.82313830076180.255905651.215905654.075.28590565TF2.52310.5269339.427599403721.63710625501970.144114038885471615244264WETL
2023-10-22 04:00:04FORECAST20242510532.9919.97626.4835.72563767878670.338582861.348582864.075.41858286TF0.99304.9969340.019429603211.94682805765570.112996037382151615244264WETL
2023-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20242510533.0820.64226.8617.05781547099930.633858611.553858614.075.62385861TF1.08299.0869340.890553580252.40594262297620.114682392321131615254280WETL
2023-10-21 20:00:04FORECAST20242510534.37628.20231.2894.7906366133920.543307381.223307384.085.30330738TF2.376308.37669339.406260518461.62597205845420.140960973872761615244264WETL
2023-10-21 16:00:02FORECAST20242510533.45826.7830.1194.45188058827070.47244121.10244124.085.1824412TF1.458303.45869339.183746370381.51000553632320.121959822268941615244264WETL
2023-10-21 12:00:03FORECAST20242510540.94632.52236.7341.0222573771370.070866180.470866184.234.70086618TF8.946320.94669336.920161222660.344419120316040.330742186444381625224236WETM
2023-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20242510541.23432.91837.07600.023622060.233622064.334.56362206TF9.234322.23469336.2416377430200.340939620482321625225245WETM
2023-10-21 04:00:05FORECAST20242510541.88233.837.841000.014.254.26TF9.882326.88269336.2416377430200.364303024764251625215222.5WETM
2023-10-21 00:00:04FORECAST20242510544.7833.74639.26300.311023790.351023794.184.53102379TF12.78329.7869336.2416377430200.473850523280971625225245WETM
2023-10-20 20:00:03FORECAST20242510542.832.55837.6790.717097059957270.421260070.491260074.184.67126007TF10.8324.869336.717795451650.241459341153670.39826320942791625234254WETM
2023-10-20 16:00:03FORECAST20242510542.56633.06237.8140004.234.23TF10.566322.56669336.2416377430200.389521716172191625215222.5WETM
2023-10-20 12:00:03FORECAST20242510540.69434.21437.4540.511875689033651.216536091.236536094.185.41653609TF8.694322.69469336.581615530.172287946365480.321920942687051625244272WETM
2023-10-20 08:00:03FORECAST20242510539.21832.19835.7081.52488941708321.051181671.061181674.25.26118167TF7.218314.21869337.253137769310.514273740662530.272370595548681625244272WETM
2023-10-20 04:00:06FORECAST20242510534.9727.4131.194.86274997266131.078740741.208740744.095.29874074TF2.97313.9769339.453603946261.65067800330950.154271096883691615244264WETL
2023-10-20 00:00:03FORECAST20242510533.06226.67229.8672.76357265930920.346456880.576456884.084.65645688TF1.062298.06269338.071910666540.934286289198470.114343701137261615234248WETL
2023-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20242510532.70228.29230.4974.27911660714080.62992160.95992164.115.0699216TF0.702298.70269339.07019145821.45092088725520.107718465017351615234248WETL
2023-10-19 16:00:04FORECAST20242510532.43226.45629.4446.46720200176250.602362531.402362534.15.50236253TF0.432299.43269340.504709407382.2021127382890.102933694646791615244264WETL
2023-10-19 12:00:03FORECAST20242510530.07423.66626.876.12767518676050.397638011.217638014.085.29763801TF-1.926291.07469340.282636451342.08514146786830.0675277453670551615244264WETL
2023-10-19 08:00:02FORECAST20242510529.76819.61624.6926.11056062571570.366141931.206141934.15.30614193TF-2.232288.76869340.271437327362.07924924698830.0637226004641571615244264WETL
2023-10-19 04:00:05FORECAST20242510537.63425.30431.4694.33686712277440.204724520.944724524.15.04472452TF5.634305.63469339.108155463191.4706670104930.223780027651081615234248WETL
2023-10-19 00:00:03FORECAST20242510531.11823.9927.5547.07346496462910.405512031.235512034.115.34551203TF-0.882288.11869340.900769429152.41134964897220.0818338833123811615244264WETL
2023-10-18 20:00:03FORECAST20242510530.61423.66627.146.45188082663280.381889971.171889974.125.29188997TF-1.386291.61469340.494692472732.1968311779350.0746663967842911615244264WETL
2023-10-18 16:00:03FORECAST20242510535.72626.13230.9293.76520908702030.200787510.730787514.174.90078751TF3.726292.72669338.732113809581.27539723298140.172373076560651615234248WETL
2023-10-18 12:00:04FORECAST20242510536.71628.07632.3963.14629248781290.204724520.654724524.134.78472452TF4.716304.71669338.324368997171.06446742061990.198036833926871615234248WETM
2023-10-18 08:00:05FORECAST20242510536.82429.40833.1163.51569000893980.228346580.718346584.144.85834658TF4.824295.82469338.567806724571.19029945545020.20096940683561615234248WETM
2023-10-18 04:00:05FORECAST20242510539.4728.43633.9531.56875699530780.598425520.598425524.084.67842552TF7.47308.4769337.282178375790.529113776719670.280556858985861625234254WETM
2023-10-18 00:00:04FORECAST20242510538.22829.80434.0160.1147126800129900.194.124.31TF6.228306.22869336.317866088380.0385799237552490.241401991882551615224232WETM
2023-10-17 20:00:04FORECAST20242510537.83229.87633.8540.03501239240766300.184.074.25TF5.832301.83269336.26490637290.0117734388548540.229571466829321615224232WETM
2023-10-17 16:00:04FORECAST20242510534.62827.28430.9563.90798527688430.287401730.807401734.094.89740173TF2.628298.62869338.82608439771.32412734925060.146509729185731615234248WETL
2023-10-17 12:00:05FORECAST20242510535.38427.82431.6044.23280900120980.358267910.848267914.134.97826791TF3.384296.38469339.039745764211.43509048763860.164022874841071615234248WETL
2023-10-17 08:00:04FORECAST20242510535.67228.45432.0634.24585865549560.374015950.864015954.145.00401595TF3.672297.67269339.048325835551.43955126888020.171036939227441615234248WETM
2023-10-17 04:00:06FORECAST20242510536.71622.26229.4891.159690376304600.254.124.37TF4.716293.71669337.011248118030.390828701148890.198036833926871615224232WETL
2023-10-17 00:00:03FORECAST20242510532.55820.96626.7622.223142095675400.384.314.69TF0.558271.55869337.715001395490.750788435943410.105147080991371615224232WETL
2023-10-16 20:00:04FORECAST20242510535.22221.36228.2922.173142038046900.374.254.62TF3.222278.22269337.681955764230.733830853561150.160160453450181615224232WETL
2023-10-16 16:00:04FORECAST20242510530.48821.3825.9341.533772392248500.274.194.46TF-1.512277.48869337.259018614760.517278571788140.072951431664391615224232WETL
2023-10-16 12:00:05FORECAST20242510539.88424.00831.9460.174597797076500.084.054.13TF7.884298.88469336.357651849280.0587273050427080.294258418442831625214218WETL
2023-10-16 08:00:04FORECAST20242510539.88423.41431.6490.3298689261204100.093.934.02TF7.884274.88469336.460780849740.110987956460540.294258418442831625224236WETL
2023-10-16 04:00:06FORECAST20242510533.826.65430.2271.19074079451610.098425250.198425253.894.08842525TF1.8275.869337.031823096990.401317540811710.128817538265231615224232WETL
2023-10-16 00:00:04FORECAST20242510529.49827.80628.6528.12772776173870.23622060.99622063.844.8362206TF-2.502273.49869341.588048419462.7763346642170.0605050933154891615243248WETL
2023-10-15 20:00:07FORECAST20242510536.12231.29833.716.05633965410740.232283590.882283593.784.66228359TF4.122275.12269340.235953951722.06058449967080.1823734949931615234248WETM
2023-10-15 16:00:04FORECAST20242510530.32618.89624.61114.2164749251710.220472561.990472564.526.51047256TT-1.674269.32669345.521525006984.91209809636880.0707908309093741615253260WETL
2023-10-15 12:00:04FORECAST20242510524.74623.64824.1973.882788220081601.054.595.64TF-7.254267.74669338.809503000671.31552554710270.0220094187165561615244264WETL
2023-10-15 08:00:03FORECAST20242510524.74623.64824.197001.154.725.87TF-7.254263.74669336.2416377430200.0220094187165561615245280WETL
2023-10-15 04:00:07FORECAST20242510539.12837.88638.507000.074.234.3TF7.128298.12869336.2416377430200.269475921404131625215222.5WETM