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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 24, 2023

[ Monday, October 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 25, 2023 ]

DAY 24 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/25/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.22°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.053
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 352

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.92 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.94 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 70
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 337.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 104

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-25 04:00:06OBSERVATION20242410429.2200825.8699227.54500.920000000000070.940000000000074.075.0100000000001TF-2.77992352.2200870337.2340527369 00.05330833868087116 15235260WETL
2023-10-25 00:00:02FORECAST20242410429.69625.28627.4915.00033981087650.86614220.88614224.074.9561422TF-2.304352.69669339.543909543891.6978349284330.0585420661856581615234248WETL
2023-10-24 12:00:02FORECAST20242410431.04625.98828.5172.42358690501540.744094890.764094894.074.83409489TF-0.954354.04669337.847435619920.818802620861480.0755853029391891615234248WETL
2023-10-24 08:00:02FORECAST20242410430.21824.72827.4732.8432669166610.838583130.858583134.074.92858313TF-1.782353.21869338.124500632450.961378206360750.0647359417263971615234248WETL
2023-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST20242410430.81224.60227.7072.39743504302540.720472830.740472834.074.81047283TF-1.188353.81269337.830160864890.80992586624840.0723879723074281615234248WETL
2023-10-24 00:00:02FORECAST20242410431.76625.59228.6792.54675616467060.744094890.754094894.074.82409489TF-0.234351.76670338.91479633660.863133346868330.0860962838816791615234248WETL
2023-10-23 20:00:02FORECAST20242410432.07225.1628.6162.61869728756840.771653960.781653964.074.85165396TF0.072000000000003352.07270338.962116496420.887639175057620.0908796959120131615234248WETL
2023-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20242410431.80224.8928.3462.92191881950550.858268180.868268184.074.93826818TF-0.198351.80270339.161469193520.991002279687690.0866490934660411615234248WETL
2023-10-23 12:00:02FORECAST20242410430.66825.12427.8962.7917999776580.775590970.785590974.074.85559097TF-1.332350.66870339.075941495520.946632205891550.0704723522798291615234248WETL
2023-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20242410430.7425.2527.9953.10218616269090.877953230.887953234.074.95795323TF-1.26350.7470339.279913028091.05250945147470.0714252504048571615234248WETL
2023-10-23 04:00:04FORECAST20242410430.7426.22228.4813.1922430601520.893701270.903701274.074.97370127TF-1.26350.7470339.339064190121.08325277269940.0714252504048571615234248WETL
2023-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20242410430.93826.13228.5353.84605362850081.003937551.003937554.075.07393755TF-1.062348.93870339.768094526611.30676631280280.0740965336126431615244264WETL
2023-10-22 20:00:02FORECAST20242410430.16424.47627.323.92605324565620.996063530.996063534.075.06606353TF-1.836345.16470339.820541350031.33415353930790.0640725854516591615244264WETL
2023-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20242410429.73223.64826.693.87000631015260.968504460.968504464.075.03850446TF-2.268344.73270339.783798745321.3149654452320.0589537694675191615234248WETL
2023-10-22 12:00:02FORECAST20242410429.44424.69227.0683.681539242970.925197350.925197354.074.99519735TF-2.556344.44470339.660207300931.25047238245370.0557228251636911615234248WETL
2023-10-22 08:00:02FORECAST20242410430.18226.5128.3463.67228784303880.960630440.960630444.075.03063044TF-1.818346.18270339.654138967451.2473077653680.0642931164804071615234248WETL
2023-10-22 04:00:03FORECAST20242410429.33624.92627.1314.08616102043061.011811571.011811574.075.08181157TF-2.664342.33670339.925474152591.38899022233370.0545477558171941615244264WETL
2023-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20242410430.23625.35827.7973.81741084255750.917323330.917323334.074.98732333TF-1.764336.23670339.749314056491.29696271523070.0649582376970171615234248WETL
2023-10-21 20:00:03FORECAST20242410431.83826.88829.3632.61647105342560.681102730.691102734.074.76110273TF-0.162343.83870338.960652293130.886880734975250.0872045427171121615234248WETL
2023-10-21 16:00:01FORECAST20242410430.5625.728.132.46683854327820.625984590.635984594.074.70598459TF-1.44339.5670338.862219397580.835918383670720.0690613074721831615234248WETL
2023-10-21 12:00:03FORECAST20242410436.66227.39232.0271.29886958729190.397638010.557638014.074.62763801TF4.662349.66270338.092606240110.439138203933550.187208613828911615234248WETM
2023-10-21 08:00:02FORECAST20242410438.3928.59833.4940.315128473771870.212598540.462598544.084.54259854TF6.39351.3970337.442613142950.106337775665330.235753212101161615224232WETM
2023-10-21 04:00:05FORECAST20242410439.59630.50635.05100.011811030.171811034.094.26181103TF7.596354.59670337.234052736900.273366708282341625225245WETM
2023-10-21 00:00:03FORECAST20242410441.82830.14635.98700.035433090.105433094.114.21543309TF9.828354.82870337.234052736900.349945502115191625225245WETM
2023-10-20 20:00:03FORECAST20242410440.1929.98435.08700.066929170.176929174.074.24692917TF8.19352.1970337.234052736900.292925510250811625225245WETM
2023-10-20 16:00:03FORECAST20242410440.13630.84835.492000.164.074.23TF8.136350.13670337.234052736900.291120914621161625225245WETM
2023-10-20 12:00:03FORECAST20242410439.30831.58635.44700.015748040.125748044.074.19574804TF7.308352.30870337.234052736900.264121865209841625225245WETM
2023-10-20 08:00:03FORECAST20242410437.43628.56232.99900.007874020.137874024.074.20787402TF5.436345.43670337.234052736900.208142069759071615225240WETM
2023-10-20 04:00:06FORECAST20242410437.59828.7633.1790.281163862359580.125984320.145984324.074.21598432TF5.598348.59870337.42014248550.094870350499140.212691799372571615224232WETM
2023-10-20 00:00:03FORECAST20242410431.85626.90629.3811.06908801993860.232283590.242283594.074.31228359TF-0.144334.85670337.940926647510.36128859612580.0874832590054781615224232WETL
2023-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20242410435.47428.18431.8291.25543854706550.326771830.346771834.094.43677183TF3.474336.47470338.063944047570.424418506730320.157713828144181615224232WETL
2023-10-19 16:00:03FORECAST20242410433.8929.24631.5683.38195249088510.795276020.815276024.084.89527602TF1.89336.8970339.463624854971.14804985164310.123395361876751615234248WETL
2023-10-19 12:00:03FORECAST20242410432.46823.14427.8063.92339709763530.818898080.818898084.084.89889808TF0.468331.46870339.818800181161.33324409435270.097358047254671615234248WETL
2023-10-19 08:00:02FORECAST20242410431.94623.8127.8784.10821832624840.842520140.862520144.084.94252014TF-0.053999999999998328.94670339.939926914171.39654743757230.0888867854458041615234248WETL
2023-10-19 04:00:05FORECAST20242410435.18626.61830.9023.30706594660680.736220870.756220874.084.83622087TF3.186338.18670339.414462525581.12246601080420.151049147078941615234248WETL
2023-10-19 00:00:03FORECAST20242410430.75826.25828.5084.44096176387690.830709110.860709114.084.94070911TF-1.242326.75870340.157854493041.5106280254860.0716650078194621615234248WETL
2023-10-18 20:00:03FORECAST20242410433.90826.52830.2183.99480734500960.7874020.8374024.074.907402TF1.908330.90870339.865607227551.35769762406880.12375346819561615234248WETL
2023-10-18 16:00:03FORECAST20242410433.29627.6830.4882.68458983054640.531496350.631496354.074.70149635TF1.296327.29670339.005450542040.910090585024980.111981843746311615234248WETL
2023-10-18 12:00:04FORECAST20242410434.10629.01231.5592.2008655533870.452756150.512756154.074.58275615TF2.106338.10670338.687161757640.745404907686790.127740548345961615234248WETL
2023-10-18 08:00:05FORECAST20242410432.0928.8530.472.54073892667550.488189240.558189244.074.62818924TF0.090000000000003329.0970338.910838032310.86108395886090.0911670735364831615234248WETL
2023-10-18 04:00:05FORECAST20242410434.50229.1231.811000.014.074.08TF2.502338.50270337.234052736900.135979551608851615215220WETL
2023-10-18 00:00:03FORECAST20242410435.58230.63233.1070.385804680012990.102362260.272362264.044.31236226TF3.582337.58270337.489365621950.130204976711570.160262012185491615224232WETM
2023-10-17 20:00:03FORECAST20242410435.88830.93833.4130.309253192407660.094488240.244488244.014.25448824TF3.888333.88870337.438726252450.104354003335550.167626780316321615224232WETM
2023-10-17 16:00:03FORECAST20242410433.6228.6731.1452.15381223137060.413386050.6133860544.61338605TF1.62333.6270338.65617997040.72940182264950.118110477669311615234248WETL
2023-10-17 12:00:04FORECAST20242410436.9528.7632.8552.0822300996240.484252230.6242522344.62425223TF4.95330.9570338.609040332890.705061935785930.194841293483831615234248WETM
2023-10-17 08:00:04FORECAST20242410437.1329.64233.3862.07502173931490.488189240.608189244.024.62818924TF5.13332.1370338.604292870260.702611268731150.199706219117381615234248WETM
2023-10-17 04:00:05FORECAST20242410432.91825.08829.0031.21558157630460.055118140.3651181444.36511814TF0.918326.91870338.037637769680.410912324570350.10512239158731615224232WETL
2023-10-17 00:00:03FORECAST20242410431.20823.86427.5362.22619249567540.098425250.558425254.134.68842525TF-0.792309.20870338.703836495520.754019939062810.0778608943340691615234248WETL
2023-10-16 20:00:04FORECAST20242410430.0222.67626.3482.20777883804690.07874020.53874024.084.6187402TF-1.98313.0270338.691713428510.747756397529320.0623293792628231615234248WETL
2023-10-16 16:00:03FORECAST20242410430.88424.22427.5541.53377239224850.070866180.400866184.064.46086618TF-1.116316.88470338.247574897530.518794792122830.0733605710998261615224232WETL
2023-10-16 12:00:05FORECAST20242410435.29426.31230.8030.31599859707650.023622060.113622064.024.13362206TF3.294329.29470337.443188782620.106631574248330.153526166925371615224232WETL
2023-10-16 08:00:04FORECAST20242410433.92625.28629.6060.445292126120410.019685050.109685053.914.01968505TF1.926304.92670337.528710204920.150298876993830.124112299251591615224232WETL
2023-10-16 04:00:06FORECAST20242410435.54625.9730.7580.463721542926650.066929170.186929173.83.98692917TF3.546311.54670337.540898086860.156524986061680.159409651760821615224232DRYL
2023-10-16 00:00:03FORECAST20242410433.06226.99630.0295.90159268540410.763779940.763779943.844.60377994TF1.062314.06270341.112306902512.01310589531720.10769887859011615234248WETL
2023-10-15 20:00:07FORECAST20242410435.83430.7433.2874.2897082122780.645669640.645669643.784.42566964TF3.834308.83470340.058815055711.4587530916020.166311556009171615234248WETM
2023-10-15 16:00:04FORECAST20242410434.10630.05632.08112.3235348720191.629922142.269922144.026.28992214TT2.106309.10670345.266982132664.25490969446870.127740548345961615253260WETH
2023-10-15 12:00:04FORECAST20242410436.33823.57629.9573.88278822008160.929134361.539134364.15.63913436TF4.338313.33870339.79217862311.31934106843360.178845793976231615254280WETL
2023-10-15 08:00:03FORECAST20242410434.98823.57629.28201.015748581.685748584.185.86574858TF2.988308.98870337.234052736900.1465771891934116152552100WETL
2023-10-15 04:00:06FORECAST20242410452.736.12244.41100.070866180.080866184.224.30086618TF20.7328.770337.234052736900.749349523259321645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-15 00:00:05FORECAST20242410443.95237.6740.811000.283.944.22TF11.952332.95270337.234052736900.429050119558561625225245WETMH
2023-10-14 20:00:03FORECAST20242410443.91637.59840.757000.293.814.1TF11.916332.91670337.234052736900.427675242382881625225245WETMH
2023-10-14 16:00:05FORECAST20242410442.92639.5641.243000.324.424.74TF10.926325.92670337.234052736900.39026559363681625225245WETMH
2023-10-14 12:00:04FORECAST20242410446.99445.3246.157000.184.414.59TF14.994335.99470337.234052736900.546651141606971635225250WETMH
2023-10-14 08:00:04FORECAST20242410446.99445.3246.157000.194.54.69TF14.994345.99470337.234052736900.546651141606971635225250WETMH
2023-10-14 04:00:07FORECAST20242410443.71843.05243.385000.074.254.32TF11.718339.71870337.234052736900.420129540178841625215222.5WETMH