MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 20, 2023

[ Thursday, October 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 21, 2023 ]

DAY 20 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/21/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 47.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.936
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 402

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 74
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 100

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 32.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-21 04:00:04OBSERVATION20242010061.6699447.4099854.539960004.354.35TF29.66994401.6699474341.1662149952 00.9364057603481516 55315232.5WETMH
2023-10-21 00:00:02FORECAST20242010056.343.10649.7030004.354.35TF24.3396.373340.1887706441100.83704359113131645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-20 12:00:01FORECAST20242010056.51644.70850.6120004.354.35TF24.516396.51673340.1887706441100.842358188892441645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-20 08:00:02FORECAST20242010055.56242.7149.1360004.354.35TF23.562395.56273340.1887706441100.818020119803511645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-20 04:00:05FORECAST20242010055.9443.73649.8380004.354.35TF23.94395.9473340.1887706441100.827930818114311645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-20 00:00:02FORECAST20242010056.17444.67250.4230004.354.35TF24.174392.17474341.166214995200.833890372603361645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-19 20:00:02FORECAST20242010056.1244.02450.0720004.354.35TF24.12390.1274341.166214995200.832527036820711645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-19 16:00:02FORECAST20242010056.24644.20450.2250004.354.35TF24.246390.24674341.166214995200.835696995461421645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-19 12:00:02FORECAST20242010054.89643.0748.9830004.354.35TF22.896388.89674341.166214995200.79971211269211645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-19 08:00:01FORECAST20242010054.8641.97248.4160004.354.35TF22.86388.8674341.166214995200.79869200978091645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-19 04:00:04FORECAST20242010055.16642.9849.0730004.354.35TF23.166390.16674341.166214995200.807263627933121645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-19 00:00:02FORECAST20242010055.56243.98849.7750004.354.35TF23.562385.56274341.166214995200.818020119803511645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-18 20:00:02FORECAST20242010055.92244.88850.4050004.354.35TF23.922386.92274341.166214995200.827466819433371645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-18 16:00:02FORECAST20242010055.77843.46649.6220004.354.35TF23.778385.77874341.166214995200.823726218819461645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-18 12:00:03FORECAST20242010057.7446.11251.9260004.354.35TF25.74390.7474341.166214995200.870309309657481655215230WETMH
2023-10-18 08:00:03FORECAST20242010057.39846.16651.7820004.354.35TF25.398389.39874341.166214995200.862868608337381655215230WETMH
2023-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST20242010058.6446.90452.7720004.354.35TF26.64391.6474341.166214995200.888542067395351655215230WETMH
2023-10-18 00:00:02FORECAST20242010057.86645.66251.7640004.314.31TF25.866391.86674341.166214995200.872979011875121655215230WETMH
2023-10-17 20:00:02FORECAST20242010057.16447.51652.340004.284.28TF25.164389.16474341.166214995200.85761314455061655215230WETMH
2023-10-17 16:00:02FORECAST20242010057.50647.7552.6280004.284.28TF25.506391.50674341.166214995200.865249073682131655215230WETMH
2023-10-17 12:00:04FORECAST20242010056.46246.45451.4580004.284.28TF24.462389.46274341.166214995200.841040308832571645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-17 08:00:03FORECAST20242010056.3946.86851.6290004.34.3TF24.39390.3974341.166214995200.839271966709711645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-17 04:00:04FORECAST20242010058.11847.5752.8440004.284.28TF26.118395.11874341.166214995200.878203423322981655215230WETMH
2023-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST20242010057.09246.52651.8090004.374.37TF25.092382.09274341.166214995200.855969098907171655215230WETMH
2023-10-16 20:00:03FORECAST20242010057.59647.19252.3940004.324.32TF25.596386.59674341.166214995200.867211076356481655215230WETMH
2023-10-16 16:00:03FORECAST20242010058.06447.24652.6550004.34.3TF26.064388.06474341.166214995200.877096775458241655215230WETMH
2023-10-16 12:00:03FORECAST20242010060.0849.1954.6350004.34.3TF28.08395.0874341.166214995200.913780744231321655215230WETMH
2023-10-16 08:00:03FORECAST20242010057.05646.5851.8180004.194.19TF25.056380.05674341.166214995200.855142307580381655215230WETMH
2023-10-16 04:00:05FORECAST20242010057.50647.58852.5470004.084.08TF25.506385.50674341.166214995200.865249073682131655215230WETMH
2023-10-16 00:00:03FORECAST20242010059.4548.14653.7980004.124.12TF27.45383.4574341.166214995200.903319329286931655215230WETMH
2023-10-15 20:00:05FORECAST20242010056.85847.2152.0340004.064.06TF24.858373.85874341.166214995200.8505380669811655215230WETMH
2023-10-15 16:00:03FORECAST20242010057.61448.21852.9160004.34.3TF25.614375.61474341.166214995200.867601111031281655215230WETMH
2023-10-15 12:00:03FORECAST20242010057.5648.21852.8890004.384.38TF25.56374.5674341.166214995200.866428642034061655215230WETMH
2023-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST20242010056.37246.86851.620004.464.46TF24.372374.37274341.166214995200.838827886863811645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-15 04:00:06FORECAST20242010057.25447.3952.3220004.54.5TF25.254376.25474341.166214995200.85965033487971655215230WETMH
2023-10-15 00:00:04FORECAST20242010057.4748.41652.9430004.084.08TF25.47382.4774341.166214995200.864458746858521655215230WETMH
2023-10-14 20:00:03FORECAST20242010056.76846.23851.5030003.983.98TF24.768379.76874341.166214995200.848413373560991645215227.5DRYL
2023-10-14 16:00:04FORECAST20242010055.1346.41850.7740004.084.08TF23.13374.1374341.166214995200.806266909060151645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-14 12:00:03FORECAST20242010056.26448.66852.4660004.154.15TF24.264378.26474341.166214995200.836146658085021645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-14 08:00:04FORECAST20242010058.08248.48853.2850004.254.25TF26.082386.08274341.166214995200.877466436374451655215230WETMH
2023-10-14 04:00:06FORECAST20242010056.69646.88651.7910004.464.46TF24.696377.69674341.166214995200.846699270990251645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-14 00:00:03FORECAST20242010056.9347.96652.4480004.064.06TF24.93379.9374341.166214995200.852223481180791655215230WETMH
2023-10-13 20:00:04FORECAST20242010056.40845.46450.9360004.054.05TF24.408371.40874341.166214995200.839715248852011645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-13 16:00:03FORECAST20242010054.60842.90848.7580004.294.29TF22.608375.60874341.166214995200.791464674374561645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-13 12:00:03FORECAST20242010051.22440.0145.61700.059055150.059055154.414.46905515TF19.224370.22474341.166214995200.680787714701351635215225WETMH
2023-10-13 08:00:03FORECAST20242010050.7240.31645.51800.086614220.086614224.324.40661422TF18.72365.7274341.166214995200.662403234177791635215225WETMH
2023-10-13 04:00:05FORECAST20242010054.35645.3249.83800.074803190.074803194.454.52480319TF22.356377.35674341.166214995200.784086866149511645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-13 00:00:04FORECAST20242010056.24646.4951.3680004.744.74TF24.246368.24674341.166214995200.835696995461421645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-12 20:00:04FORECAST20242010054.2345.5949.910004.714.71TF22.23368.2374341.166214995200.780342064389631645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-12 16:00:04FORECAST20242010051.2641.3646.3100.023622060.023622064.654.67362206TF19.26365.2674341.166214995200.682084723226771635215225WETMH
2023-10-12 12:00:04FORECAST20242010050.2741.73846.00400.023622060.023622064.844.86362206TF18.27359.2774341.166214995200.645652877530831635215225WETMH
2023-10-12 08:00:04FORECAST20242010052.743.1647.9300.015748040.015748044.884.89574804TF20.7368.774341.166214995200.732005877020771645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-12 04:00:05FORECAST20242010048.57838.91243.74500.023622060.023622064.874.89362206TF16.578366.57874341.166214995200.580366646751591635215225WETMH
2023-10-12 00:00:04FORECAST20242010044.04235.07839.5600.133858340.133858345.095.22385834TF12.042339.04274341.166214995200.39936241760851625225245WETM
2023-10-11 20:00:04FORECAST20242010044.8735.90640.38800.149606380.149606385.155.29960638TF12.87354.8774341.166214995200.431944558917621625225245WETMH
2023-10-11 16:00:04FORECAST20242010052.5244.65448.58700.098425250.098425255.65.69842525TF20.52363.5274341.166214995200.725987035914911645225255WETMH
2023-10-11 12:00:04FORECAST20242010055.52643.0749.2980006.566.56TF23.526367.52674341.166214995200.81705802122611645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-11 08:00:04FORECAST20242010055.74243.0749.4060006.166.16TF23.742369.74274341.166214995200.82278312813831645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-11 04:00:05FORECAST20242010055.59829.01242.305000.317.237.54TT23.598348.59874341.166214995200.818979055574911645225255WETH
2023-10-11 00:00:05FORECAST20242010043.64630.03836.84200.027559070.247559076.566.80755907TT11.646332.64674341.166214995200.384009479153781625225245WETH
2023-10-10 20:00:03FORECAST20242010043.7930.03836.91400.023622060.323622066.66.92362206TT11.79331.7974341.166214995200.389572729197291625225245WETH
2023-10-10 16:00:04FORECAST20242010038.78629.71434.2500.059055150.509055155.826.32905515TF6.786320.78674341.166214995200.216065701337531615235260WETM
2023-10-10 12:00:04FORECAST20242010052.93451.72852.331001.026.237.25TT20.934349.93474341.166214995200.7397297017880616452452110WETH
2023-10-10 08:00:04FORECAST20242010052.93451.72852.331001.016.237.24TT20.934352.93474341.166214995200.7397297017880616452452110WETH
2023-10-10 04:00:06FORECAST20242010049.0148.7448.875000.9677.96TT17.01341.0174341.166214995200.597327013741851635235275WETH