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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 21, 2023

[ Friday, October 20, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 22, 2023 ]

DAY 21 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/22/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.884
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 418

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 73
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 101

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 32.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-22 04:00:03OBSERVATION20242110158.8245.2400852.030040004.074.07TF26.82417.8273340.18877064411 00.8840070199523816 55315232.5WETMH
2023-10-22 00:00:02FORECAST20242110152.37642.58447.480004.074.07TF20.376411.37672339.2076049383800.718627812848181645315230WETMH
2023-10-21 12:00:02FORECAST20242110153.4243.98848.7040004.074.07TF21.42412.4272339.2076049383800.751305779878381645315230WETMH
2023-10-21 08:00:01FORECAST20242110154.03245.03249.53200.011811030.011811034.074.08181103TF22.032413.03272339.2076049383800.769479192938161645315230WETMH
2023-10-21 04:00:05FORECAST20242110153.67243.8848.77600.019685050.019685054.074.08968505TF21.672412.67272339.2076049383800.758879868629891645315230WETMH
2023-10-21 00:00:02FORECAST20242110155.70643.9749.83800.043307110.043307114.074.11330711TF23.706408.70673340.1887706441100.815207078811431645315230WETMH
2023-10-20 20:00:02FORECAST20242110154.9544.47449.7120004.074.07TF22.95408.9573340.1887706441100.795295308198381645315230WETMH
2023-10-20 16:00:02FORECAST20242110154.93244.2449.5860004.074.07TF22.932408.93273340.1887706441100.794806202763761645315230WETMH
2023-10-20 12:00:02FORECAST20242110155.81445.75250.7830004.074.07TF23.814409.81473340.1887706441100.817950207427611645315230WETMH
2023-10-20 08:00:02FORECAST20242110155.23844.25849.7480004.074.07TF23.238408.23873340.1887706441100.803026477376511645315230WETMH
2023-10-20 04:00:05FORECAST20242110154.87845.35650.1170004.074.07TF22.878407.87873340.1887706441100.793334734502751645315230WETMH
2023-10-20 00:00:02FORECAST20242110154.51844.54649.5320004.074.07TF22.518403.51873340.1887706441100.783366700506651645315230WETMH
2023-10-19 20:00:02FORECAST20242110154.5943.75449.17200.015748040.015748044.074.08574804TF22.59401.5973340.1887706441100.785382218720071645315230WETMH
2023-10-19 16:00:02FORECAST20242110154.35644.20449.2800.011811030.011811034.074.08181103TF22.356401.35673340.1887706441100.778792043327551645315230WETMH
2023-10-19 12:00:02FORECAST20242110152.95243.08848.0200.011811030.011811034.074.08181103TF20.952398.95273340.1887706441100.736910679759521645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-19 08:00:02FORECAST20242110153.22242.76447.99300.011811030.011811034.074.08181103TF21.222399.22273340.1887706441100.745267115832321645315230WETMH
2023-10-19 04:00:04FORECAST20242110154.46444.29449.37900.011811030.011811034.074.08181103TF22.464401.46473340.1887706441100.781847916512861645315230WETMH
2023-10-19 00:00:02FORECAST20242110154.0544.13249.09100.011811030.011811034.074.08181103TF22.05397.0573340.1887706441100.770002245995721645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-18 20:00:03FORECAST20242110153.8743.32248.5960004.074.07TF21.87397.8773340.1887706441100.764741965597371645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-18 16:00:03FORECAST20242110153.47443.05248.2630004.074.07TF21.474396.47473340.1887706441100.752939376569721645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-18 12:00:03FORECAST20242110155.02243.749.3610004.074.07TF23.022403.02273340.1887706441100.79724479766671645315230WETMH
2023-10-18 08:00:03FORECAST20242110153.27642.15247.7140004.074.07TF21.276399.27673340.1887706441100.746921591812091645315230WETMH
2023-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST20242110154.4142.1748.290004.074.07TF22.41403.4173340.1887706441100.780323025408041645315230WETMH
2023-10-18 00:00:03FORECAST20242110151.7142.847.25500.007874020.007874024.034.03787402TF19.71400.7173340.1887706441100.696753568255961635315227.5WETMH
2023-10-17 20:00:03FORECAST20242110150.64842.7146.67900.007874020.0078740244.00787402TF18.648396.64873340.1887706441100.660394430422251635215225WETMH
2023-10-17 16:00:03FORECAST20242110152.01643.747.85800044TF20.016401.01673340.1887706441100.706898294797931645315230WETMH
2023-10-17 12:00:04FORECAST20242110150.25242.94446.59800044TF18.252396.25273340.1887706441100.646421081706881635215225WETMH
2023-10-17 08:00:03FORECAST20242110150.48643.75447.120004.024.02TF18.486397.48673340.1887706441100.654703342016561635215225WETMH
2023-10-17 04:00:05FORECAST20242110150.4542.36846.40900044TF18.45402.4573340.1887706441100.653433838023411635315227.5WETMH
2023-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST20242110149.40642.22445.81500.043307110.043307114.094.13330711TF17.406388.40673340.1887706441100.615921197640471635215225WETMH
2023-10-16 20:00:03FORECAST20242110150.21642.24246.22900.03937010.03937014.044.0793701TF18.216394.21673340.1887706441100.645140596869441635215225WETMH
2023-10-16 16:00:03FORECAST20242110150.73842.7146.72400.043307110.043307114.024.06330711TF18.738395.73873340.1887706441100.663540526175751635215225WETMH
2023-10-16 12:00:04FORECAST20242110150.86442.24246.5530004.024.02TF18.864402.86473340.1887706441100.667925864167341635315227.5WETMH
2023-10-16 08:00:03FORECAST20242110148.1138.87643.4930003.913.91TF16.11385.1173340.1887706441100.567836938128981635215225DRYL
2023-10-16 04:00:05FORECAST20242110147.44439.48843.4660003.83.8TF15.444390.44473340.1887706441100.542681280608111635215225DRYL
2023-10-16 00:00:03FORECAST20242110147.33638.19242.7640003.843.84TF15.336387.33673340.1887706441100.538583091244361635215225DRYL
2023-10-15 20:00:06FORECAST20242110146.65237.99442.3230003.783.78TF14.652377.65273340.1887706441100.512550608898021635215225DRYL
2023-10-15 16:00:03FORECAST20242110148.23639.05643.6460004.024.02TF16.236381.23673340.1887706441100.572568495956681635215225WETMH
2023-10-15 12:00:03FORECAST20242110148.70439.8344.2670004.14.1TF16.704380.70473340.1887706441100.590046464039241635215225WETMH
2023-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST20242110149.11840.58644.8520004.184.18TF17.118380.11873340.1887706441100.605361178049991635215225WETMH
2023-10-15 04:00:06FORECAST20242110146.50837.61642.0620004.224.22TF14.508379.50873340.1887706441100.50705952061071635215225WETMH
2023-10-15 00:00:04FORECAST20242110150.34240.22645.28400.137795350.137795353.83.93779535TF18.342389.34273340.1887706441100.64961502955311635225250DRYMH
2023-10-14 20:00:03FORECAST20242110150.68440.7345.70700.110236280.110236283.73.81023628TF18.684387.68473340.1887706441100.661654224600141635225250DRYMH
2023-10-14 16:00:04FORECAST20242110148.12836.69842.41300.618110570.618110573.84.41811057TF16.128379.12873340.1887706441100.568513487387781635235275WETMH
2023-10-14 12:00:03FORECAST20242110148.99238.08443.53800.539370370.539370373.874.40937037TF16.992383.99273340.1887706441100.600716209539431635235275WETMH
2023-10-14 08:00:04FORECAST20242110150.0938.46244.27600.531496350.531496353.974.50149635TF18.09393.0973340.1887706441100.640646063988251635235275WETMH
2023-10-14 04:00:07FORECAST20242110150.14440.6445.39200.074803190.074803194.184.25480319TF18.144385.14473340.1887706441100.642574717626771635215225WETMH
2023-10-14 00:00:03FORECAST20242110148.16438.6643.41200.059055150.059055153.783.83905515TF16.164385.16473340.1887706441100.569865981239741635215225DRYL
2023-10-13 20:00:04FORECAST20242110146.29236.69841.49500.043307110.043307113.773.81330711TF14.292374.29273340.1887706441100.498820704622141625215222.5DRYL
2023-10-13 16:00:04FORECAST20242110147.31839.9243.6190004.014.01TF15.318380.31873340.1887706441100.537899649269351635215225WETMH
2023-10-13 12:00:04FORECAST20242110146.34636.01441.1800.015748040.075748044.134.20574804TF14.346373.34673340.1887706441100.500880498733711635215225WETMH
2023-10-13 08:00:03FORECAST20242110145.89635.8740.88300.015748040.105748044.044.14574804TF13.896368.89673340.1887706441100.483720049309261625225245WETMH
2023-10-13 04:00:06FORECAST20242110148.59640.1944.39300.027559070.097559074.174.26755907TF16.596382.59673340.1887706441100.586027600814131635225250WETMH
2023-10-13 00:00:04FORECAST20242110147.31838.04842.68300.165354420.165354424.464.62535442TF15.318372.31873340.1887706441100.537899649269351635225250WETMH
2023-10-12 20:00:04FORECAST20242110145.39237.441.39600.169291430.169291434.434.59929143TF13.392370.39273340.1887706441100.464537591443011625225245WETMH
2023-10-12 16:00:04FORECAST20242110148.18237.25642.719000.024.374.39TF16.182370.18273340.1887706441100.570541921949861635215225WETMH
2023-10-12 12:00:04FORECAST20242110156.1239.34447.732000.024.564.58TF24.12372.1273340.1887706441100.825583537424681645215227.5WETMH
2023-10-12 08:00:04FORECAST20242110161.41240.53250.972000.024.64.62TF29.412387.41273340.1887706441100.925568427883021655215230WETMH
2023-10-12 04:00:06FORECAST20242110150.41436.9543.682000.024.594.61TF18.414374.41473340.1887706441100.652162609461021635215225WETMH
2023-10-12 00:00:04FORECAST20242110134.57433.40433.989000.134.814.94TF2.574330.57473340.1887706441100.130584020064921615225240WETM
2023-10-11 20:00:04FORECAST20242110135.49233.3534.421000.154.875.02TF3.492347.49273340.1887706441100.150153525824941615225240WETM
2023-10-11 16:00:04FORECAST20242110147.42634.86241.144000.15.325.42TF15.426368.42673340.1887706441100.541998552212471635225250WETMH
2023-10-11 12:00:05FORECAST20242110142.49435.5139.0020006.286.28TF10.494367.49473340.1887706441100.357145809217181625215222.5WETM
2023-10-11 08:00:04FORECAST20242110142.49435.5139.0020005.885.88TF10.494369.49473340.1887706441100.357145809217181625215222.5WETM
2023-10-11 04:00:06FORECAST20242110129.53428.9429.237000.17.167.26TT-2.466335.53473340.1887706441100.0540761163319221615225240WETL