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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 19, 2023

[ Wednesday, October 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, October 20, 2023 ]

DAY 19 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/20/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.13°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.920
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 384

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.74 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 75
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 99

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-20 04:00:05OBSERVATION2024199961.1099649.1599455.13495000.075.745.81TF29.10996384.1099675342.13995210598 00.9198255771008916 54215227.5WETMH
2023-10-20 00:00:01FORECAST2024199957.21847.8452.529000.075.745.81TF25.218380.21874341.166214995200.843478481797351644215225WETMH
2023-10-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024199955.23845.62650.432000.075.745.81TF23.238378.23874341.166214995200.7904735221551644215225WETMH
2023-10-19 08:00:01FORECAST2024199955.09445.51850.306000.075.745.81TF23.094378.09474341.166214995200.786246613630361644215225WETMH
2023-10-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024199955.77846.16650.972000.075.745.81TF23.778378.77874341.166214995200.805881423384311644215225WETMH
2023-10-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024199956.8446.16651.503000.075.745.81TF24.84373.8475342.1399521059800.834105679574051644215225WETMH
2023-10-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024199957.39847.85852.628000.075.745.81TF25.398375.39875342.1399521059800.847817045060341644215225WETMH
2023-10-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024199956.15645.24850.702000.075.745.81TF24.156374.15675342.1399521059800.816245534424051644215225WETMH
2023-10-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024199958.6448.21853.429000.075.745.81TF26.64376.6475342.1399521059800.875570767393421654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024199958.06448.99253.528000.075.745.81TF26.064376.06475342.1399521059800.863171697242761654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024199958.56847.73253.15000.075.745.81TF26.568376.56875342.1399521059800.874065207681361654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024199958.4646.70652.583000.035.745.77TF26.46378.4675342.1399521059800.871783200795191654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024199957.39847.96652.6820005.745.74TF25.398376.39875342.1399521059800.847817045060341644215225WETMH
2023-10-17 16:00:02FORECAST2024199958.8247.26453.0420005.745.74TF26.82377.8275342.1399521059800.879279629546361654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024199958.62247.3953.0060005.745.74TF26.622376.62275342.1399521059800.87519555908581654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024199958.69447.78653.24000.025.745.76TF26.694377.69475342.1399521059800.876691671464541654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024199960.13447.98454.0590005.745.74TF28.134381.13475342.1399521059800.904015978090721654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024199959.66646.88653.2760005.835.83TF27.666368.66675342.1399521059800.895670918312461654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024199960.24247.35453.798000.025.765.78TF28.242373.24275342.1399521059800.905870291814511654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024199960.40447.94854.1760005.765.76TF28.404374.40475342.1399521059800.90860216890951654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024199963.19449.92856.5610005.765.76TF31.194379.19475342.1399521059800.946922448867681654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024199960.22446.90453.5640005.655.65TF28.224367.22475342.1399521059800.905563082476371654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-16 04:00:05FORECAST2024199962.00648.68655.3460005.545.54TF30.006372.00675342.1399521059800.932535430886671654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024199963.57249.02856.30005.585.58TF31.572367.57275342.1399521059800.950952868294741654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-15 20:00:05FORECAST2024199961.44849.53255.49000.015.515.52TF29.448361.44875342.1399521059800.924817282329151654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024199961.55648.32654.941000.025.745.76TF29.556361.55675342.1399521059800.926361249522011654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024199960.47647.94854.212000.015.835.84TF28.476361.47675342.1399521059800.909797357178941654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024199959.46848.25453.861000.025.95.92TF27.468362.46875342.1399521059800.891986859943421654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024199959.37847.91253.6450005.965.96TF27.378363.37875342.1399521059800.890281772384681654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024199960.56650.34255.4540005.545.54TF28.566368.56675342.1399521059800.911275021655311654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024199960.1748.41654.2930005.445.44TF28.17367.1775342.1399521059800.904637034297121654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024199959.3649.13654.248000.015.535.54TF27.36363.3675342.1399521059800.889938456173921654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024199960.4451.33255.886000.015.65.61TF28.44366.4475342.1399521059800.909201217405051654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024199962.04251.58456.8130005.715.71TF30.042372.04275342.1399521059800.933011598987661654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-14 04:00:06FORECAST2024199959.19850.16254.68000.075.855.92TF27.198365.19875342.1399521059800.886814002531661654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024199959.23450.0954.6620005.525.52TF27.234367.23475342.1399521059800.887513719315831654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-13 20:00:04FORECAST2024199957.8348.23653.0330005.515.51TF25.83358.8375342.1399521059800.857901809168131654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024199959.5449.02854.2840005.755.75TF27.54364.5475342.1399521059800.893337172810541654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024199958.7349.67654.203000.025.855.87TF26.73362.7375342.1399521059800.877435010921161654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024199958.20848.79453.501000.015.775.78TF26.208359.20875342.1399521059800.866347664802721654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024199960.36848.70454.536000.035.885.91TF28.368367.36875342.1399521059800.908000205555041654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024199960.13450.03655.085000.096.116.2TF28.134356.13475342.1399521059800.904015978090721654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024199958.04648.50653.276000.086.096.17TF26.046358.04675342.1399521059800.862771114367751654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024199957.86648.95653.411000.076.046.11TF25.866357.86675342.1399521059800.858721356967791654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024199958.35248.6553.501000.136.176.3TF26.352353.35275342.1399521059800.869472721842161654225255WETMH
2023-10-12 08:00:04FORECAST2024199960.31449.15454.734000.16.246.34TF28.314360.31475342.1399521059800.907091781854761654225255WETMH
2023-10-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024199958.74849.29854.023000.036.36.33TF26.748361.74875342.1399521059800.877805502930591654215227.5WETMH
2023-10-12 00:00:04FORECAST2024199955.34644.45649.901000.785.776.55TT23.346339.34675342.1399521059800.793611250312671644235275WETH
2023-10-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024199956.53445.60851.071000.735.886.61TT24.534353.53475342.1399521059800.826258587205031644235275WETH
2023-10-11 16:00:04FORECAST2024199958.49647.08452.79000.826.247.06TT26.496355.49675342.1399521059800.872547029454851654235282.5WETH
2023-10-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024199961.37649.6455.508001.396.638.02TT29.376356.37675342.1399521059800.923774385663416542452110WETH
2023-10-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024199960.58449.08254.833001.36.327.62TT28.584357.58475342.1399521059800.9115683862459616542452110WETH
2023-10-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024199956.64244.02450.33300.102362261.832362267.179.00236226TT24.642336.64275342.1399521059800.8290546351440616442552125WETH
2023-10-11 00:00:04FORECAST2024199954.10443.23248.66800.03937011.65937016.588.2393701TT22.104333.10475342.1399521059800.7558759554046216442552125WETH
2023-10-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024199953.1542.27847.71400.062992161.712992166.658.36299216TT21.15332.1575342.1399521059800.7245428476316516442552125WETH
2023-10-10 16:00:04FORECAST2024199950.41439.72245.06800.03937011.54937016.187.7293701TT18.414326.41475342.1399521059800.6251634287022316342552112.5WETH
2023-10-10 12:00:04FORECAST2024199963.26643.82653.54600.35433091.61433097.18.7143309TT31.266341.26675342.1399521059800.9477096903366516542552137.5WETH
2023-10-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024199962.20446.9454.57200.381889971.611889977.098.70188997TT30.204344.20475342.1399521059800.9351223571547616542552137.5WETH
2023-10-10 04:00:06FORECAST2024199957.70442.85450.27900.507874292.207874297.219.41787429TT25.704335.70475342.1399521059800.8550081607730616542552137.5WETH
2023-10-10 00:00:06FORECAST2024199942.42240.33441.37800.145669371.725669376.758.47566937TT10.422315.42275342.1399521059800.3117258026647716242552100WETH
2023-10-09 20:00:04FORECAST2024199942.56640.38841.47700.173228441.963228446.868.82322844TT10.566322.56675342.1399521059800.3169059048322616242552100WETH
2023-10-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024199943.71837.50840.61300.334645852.104645856.388.48464585TT11.718333.71875342.1399521059800.359571552184216242552100WETH
2023-10-09 12:00:04FORECAST2024199944.38440.85642.62003.225.778.99TT12.384343.38475342.1399521059800.3851046583634916242552100WETH
2023-10-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024199943.28640.58641.936003.115.618.72TT11.286324.28675342.1399521059800.343330499849716242552100WETH
2023-10-09 04:00:08FORECAST2024199949.31648.95649.13600.15748044.03748044.999.0274804TT17.316329.31675342.1399521059800.5823004348291516342552112.5WETH