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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 18, 2023

[ Tuesday, October 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 19, 2023 ]

DAY 18 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/19/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.950
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 31
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 373

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.96 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.85 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 76
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 98

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 82.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-19 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024189862.8199645.3254.06998000.964.855.81TF30.81996372.8199676343.10999603722 00.9504570356641916 54235282.5WETMH
2023-10-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024189857.25442.54849.901000.964.855.81TF25.254367.25475342.1399521059800.85435086327871654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024189857.57843.08850.333000.964.855.81TF25.578367.57875342.1399521059800.862103190742771654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024189857.75842.87250.315000.964.855.81TF25.758367.75875342.1399521059800.866286535212371654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024189857.88444.04250.963000.964.855.81TF25.884367.88475342.1399521059800.869162594010141654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024189857.93844.0650.999000.924.855.77TF25.938369.93876343.1099960372200.870382045482681654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-17 20:00:02FORECAST2024189856.87645.19451.035000.894.855.74TF24.876368.87676343.1099960372200.844943792526771644235275WETMH
2023-10-17 16:00:01FORECAST2024189857.23643.50250.369000.894.855.74TF25.236369.23676343.1099960372200.853911775254511654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024189856.46244.2450.351000.894.855.74TF24.462368.46276343.1099960372200.834191560515661644235275WETMH
2023-10-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024189856.67844.1550.414000.914.855.76TF24.678368.67876343.1099960372200.839860036438581644235275WETMH
2023-10-17 04:00:04FORECAST2024189857.5643.9750.765000.894.855.74TF25.56370.5676343.1099960372200.861680012823871654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024189857.0241.88249.451000.984.855.83TF25.02359.0276343.1099960372200.84857357645421644235275WETMH
2023-10-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024189857.52443.12450.324000.934.855.78TF25.524362.52476343.1099960372200.860831011270811654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024189857.57844.25850.918000.914.855.76TF25.578363.57876343.1099960372200.862103190742771654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-16 12:00:03FORECAST202418985945.6852.34000.914.855.76TF2736676343.1099960372200.89278110455531654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024189856.96643.0750.018000.84.855.65TF24.966356.96676343.1099960372200.847219066005931644235275WETMH
2023-10-16 04:00:04FORECAST2024189858.04643.44850.747000.694.855.54TF26.046360.04676343.1099960372200.872797343175271654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-16 00:00:02FORECAST2024189857.7443.71850.729000.774.815.58TF25.74353.7476343.1099960372200.865872158936281654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024189855.68842.65649.172000.734.795.52TF23.688349.68876343.1099960372200.812832382762831644235275WETMH
2023-10-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024189855.5843.57449.577000.974.795.76TF23.58349.5876343.1099960372200.809722576247711644235275WETMH
2023-10-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024189856.1242.67449.397001.054.795.84TF24.12351.1276343.1099960372200.8249552416268916442452100WETMH
2023-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST2024189856.82243.91650.369001.144.785.92TF24.822352.82276343.1099960372200.8435679720472216442452100WETMH
2023-10-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024189857.25443.91650.585001.164.85.96TF25.254354.25476343.1099960372200.854350863278716542452110WETMH
2023-10-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024189858.49644.09651.296000.894.655.54TF26.496358.49676343.1099960372200.882524257965991654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024189858.4643.73651.098000.814.635.44TF26.46357.4676343.1099960372200.881765988671221654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024189857.72243.77250.747000.94.645.54TF25.722353.72276343.1099960372200.865456903931361654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024189857.90245.5951.746000.974.645.61TF25.902355.90276343.1099960372200.869569953170051654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024189859.8146.4953.15001.024.695.71TF27.81359.8176343.1099960372200.907889531119316542452110WETMH
2023-10-14 04:00:06FORECAST2024189859.25244.22251.737001.194.735.92TF27.252356.25276343.1099960372200.8976610565026616542452110WETMH
2023-10-14 00:00:02FORECAST2024189860.42244.25852.34000.874.655.52TF28.422358.42276343.1099960372200.918217907793031654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024189858.87443.17851.026000.834.685.51TF26.874350.87476343.1099960372200.890279355711081654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024189859.21641.7250.468000.954.85.75TF27.216355.21676343.1099960372200.896973951478421654235282.5WETMH
2023-10-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024189858.22642.69250.459001.154.725.87TF26.226354.22676343.1099960372200.8767531130454416542452110WETMH
2023-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024189857.99241.97249.982001.154.635.78TF25.992350.99276343.1099960372200.8715936248742916542452110WETMH
2023-10-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024189857.88442.0849.982001.114.85.91TF25.884356.88476343.1099960372200.8691625940101416542452110WETMH
2023-10-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024189855.18438.06646.625001.035.176.2TF23.184346.18476343.1099960372200.7980515131791116442452100WETMH
2023-10-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024189855.0439.7447.39001.025.156.17TF23.04350.0476343.1099960372200.7937036596364516442452100WETMH
2023-10-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024189854.8639.45247.1560015.116.11TF22.86349.8676343.1099960372200.7881916997413416442452100WETMH
2023-10-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024189854.4136.80645.608001.285.026.3TT22.41345.4176343.1099960372200.7740413591373516442452100WETH
2023-10-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024189854.48237.99446.238001.295.056.34TT22.482350.48276343.1099960372200.7763406292528616442452100WETH
2023-10-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024189856.04838.58847.318001.275.066.33TT24.048353.04876343.1099960372200.8229700325035216442452100WETH
2023-10-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024189855.0435.52845.284001.495.066.55TT23.04334.0476343.1099960372200.7937036596364516442452100WETH
2023-10-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024189855.18437.23846.211001.55.116.61TT23.184347.18476343.1099960372200.7980515131791116442452100WETH
2023-10-11 16:00:04FORECAST2024189855.9438.51647.228001.895.177.06TT23.94346.9476343.1099960372200.819965726579916442552125WETH
2023-10-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024189854.89639.88447.39002.895.138.02TT22.896344.89676343.1099960372200.7893009199637616442552125WETH
2023-10-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024189855.11239.39847.255002.664.967.62TT23.112347.11276343.1099960372200.7958844680368716442552125WETH
2023-10-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024189849.1935.81642.50300.212598543.662598545.248.90259854TT17.19330.1976343.1099960372200.5777900012905816342552112.5WETH
2023-10-11 00:00:04FORECAST2024189848.90235.27642.08900.181102463.151102465.058.20110246TT16.902328.90276343.1099960372200.5657525268402716342552112.5WETH
2023-10-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024189847.96634.01640.99100.23622063.13622065.168.2962206TT15.966328.96676343.1099960372200.5262653695145216342552112.5WETH
2023-10-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024189848.07433.65640.86500.405512032.395512035.297.68551203TT16.074326.07476343.1099960372200.5308422816815316342552112.5WETH
2023-10-10 12:00:04FORECAST2024189847.89435.13241.51300.66929172.32929176.038.3592917TT15.894327.89476343.1099960372200.5232121298840116342552112.5WETH
2023-10-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024189849.58637.72443.65500.633858612.333858615.998.32385861TT17.586331.58676343.1099960372200.5942214025397916342552112.5WETH
2023-10-10 04:00:06FORECAST2024189847.46238.19242.82700.448819143.058819145.858.90881914TT15.462328.46276343.1099960372200.5048703371332616342552112.5WETH
2023-10-10 00:00:06FORECAST2024189848.16437.14842.65601.06299272.86299275.478.3329927TT16.164323.16476343.1099960372200.5346532900738416342552112.5WETH
2023-10-09 20:00:04FORECAST2024189848.72237.443.06101.196851043.056851045.598.64685104TT16.722329.72276343.1099960372200.5581972862566616342552112.5WETH
2023-10-09 16:00:04FORECAST2024189850.97235.88843.4301.25984322.13984326.018.1498432TT18.972339.97276343.1099960372200.6502628066882416342552112.5WETH
2023-10-09 12:00:04FORECAST2024189851.11636.93244.02401.086614764.176614764.818.98661476TT19.116349.11676343.1099960372200.6559248951520416342552112.5WETH
2023-10-09 08:00:04FORECAST2024189849.29834.66441.98101.078740744.058740744.668.71874074TT17.298331.29876343.1099960372200.5822860161121216342552112.5WETH
2023-10-09 04:00:07FORECAST2024189851.60239.16445.38302.16535554.46535554.48.8653555TT19.602329.60276343.1099960372200.6747716898221416342552112.5WETH
2023-10-09 00:00:05FORECAST2024189837.83236.53637.18400.303149772.423149774.847.26314977TT5.832297.83276343.1099960372200.155393387777961614255287.5WETH
2023-10-08 20:00:03FORECAST2024189838.46236.82437.64300.326771832.676771835.097.76677183TT6.462303.46276343.1099960372200.171964763532531614255287.5WETH
2023-10-08 16:00:04FORECAST2024189840.08238.6639.37100.728346853.858346855.319.16834685TT8.082310.08276343.1099960372200.219518518315851614255287.5WETH
2023-10-08 12:00:05FORECAST2024189847.15644.70845.93200.047244122.037244124.956.98724412TT15.156308.15676343.1099960372200.4918697154353216242552100WETH
2023-10-08 08:00:04FORECAST2024189847.46246.34646.90400.047244122.047244125.237.27724412TT15.462333.46276343.1099960372200.5048703371332616342552112.5WETH
2023-10-08 04:00:06FORECAST2024189848.93847.40848.173001.885.227.1TT16.938341.93876343.1099960372200.5672607884480116342552112.5WETH