morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 11, 2023

[ Tuesday, October 10, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 12, 2023 ]

DAY 11 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/12/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 37.79°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 32.00°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 34.90°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.193 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 303 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.78 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 2.57 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 7.31 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 9.88 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 83 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 349.80 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 91 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 4 D₂: 2 D₃: 5 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 87.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-12 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2024	11	91	37.79006	32	34.89503	0	0.77999999999997	2.57	7.31	9.88	T	T	5.79006	302.79006	83	349.7980644861	0	0.19306079173091	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.058	30.272	33.665	2.1750265049986	0.90944931	2.69944931	7.31	10.00944931	T	T	5.058	302.058	82	350.22556424478	0.76174988496048	0.17467983339926	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.894	31.55	35.222	1.8760891982131	0.96456745	2.75456745	7.31	10.06456745	T	T	6.894	303.894	82	350.03743344277	0.6567014478522	0.22291168025338	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.588	31.478	35.033	1.7905862807481	0.81889808	2.60889808	7.31	9.91889808	T	T	6.588	303.588	82	349.98359744667	0.62667582807487	0.21438478927501	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.282	31.064	34.673	1.6364858643576	0.84645715	2.63645715	7.31	9.94645715	T	T	6.282	303.282	82	349.88654024009	0.57258437723191	0.20605032635187	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.624	30.83	34.727	2.9334702074572	0.79527602	2.43527602	7.31	9.74527602	T	T	6.624	302.624	83	351.63980562161	1.031524893547	0.21537801627242	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-10 20:00:01	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.192	29.39	33.791	0	0.84645715	2.50645715	7.31	9.81645715	T	T	6.192	301.192	83	349.7980644861	0	0.203635999103	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-10 16:00:01	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.994	29.876	33.935	1.8300969479617	1.00787456	2.66787456	7.31	9.97787456	T	T	5.994	300.994	83	350.94867664606	0.64227010202114	0.19838409394049	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.796	30.488	34.142	3.4788531243048	1.16535496	2.82535496	7.31	10.13535496	T	T	5.796	300.796	83	351.98070694837	1.2244891820624	0.19321459819248	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.994	30.866	34.43	0	1.19291403	2.81291403	7.31	10.12291403	T	T	5.994	300.994	83	349.7980644861	0	0.19838409394049	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-10 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.282	32.486	35.384	0.23387083748387	1.20866207	2.92866207	7.31	10.23866207	T	T	6.282	301.282	83	349.94540119131	0.081842024050241	0.20605032635187	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.94	31.874	34.907	0.32326258129495	1.18504001	2.62504001	7.31	9.93504001	T	T	5.94	293.94	83	350.00169413896	0.11314245110497	0.1969660372408	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.732	31.928	35.33	2.0171655534709	1.18504001	2.68504001	7.31	9.99504001	T	T	6.732	295.732	83	351.06598874599	0.70815821949359	0.21837363657698	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	39.02	33.854	36.437	0	1.3779535	2.6979535	7.31	10.0079535	T	T	7.02	297.02	83	349.7980644861	0	0.22647803897523	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	40.352	32.432	36.392	1.5162228118063	0.91732333	2.12732333	7.31	9.43732333	T	T	8.352	299.352	83	350.75171859648	0.53181775701625	0.26608423481358	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.624	31.874	35.249	0	0.77165396	2.03165396	7.31	9.34165396	T	T	6.624	293.624	83	349.7980644861	0	0.21537801627242	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-09 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.354	31.856	35.105	1.3027630674727	0.91732333	2.21732333	7.31	9.52732333	T	T	6.354	291.354	83	350.61768149237	0.45677176625117	0.20799392952433	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.814	32.666	35.24	4.1209794213431	1.16535496	2.35535496	7.31	9.66535496	T	T	5.814	286.814	83	352.3814745957	1.4521568052714	0.19368113390906	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.714	32.378	35.546	2.920435223964	1.1417329	2.2217329	7.31	9.5317329	T	T	6.714	285.714	83	351.63165209281	1.0269174626325	0.21787270941028	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.652	31.316	34.484	0	1.20866207	2.37866207	7.31	9.68866207	T	T	5.652	283.652	83	349.7980644861	0	0.18950700293935	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.292	30.452	33.872	4.9161160303856	0.99212652	2.08212652	7.31	9.39212652	T	T	5.292	280.292	83	352.87683495087	1.7347834650537	0.18043085779747	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.516	31.622	35.069	0	1.04724466	2.18724466	7.31	9.49724466	T	T	6.516	290.516	83	349.7980644861	0	0.21240633090617	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-08 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.778	31.352	34.565	3.4011997266715	1.11417383	2.25417383	7.31	9.56417383	T	T	5.778	286.778	83	351.93219713413	1.1969916926995	0.19274874755845	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.768	32.36	35.564	3.6835577322265	1.38582752	2.56582752	7.31	9.87582752	T	T	6.768	282.768	83	352.10853937594	1.2970121328012	0.21937747492987	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.112	31.676	34.394	0.6050360460072	1.38189051	2.49189051	7.31	9.80189051	T	T	5.112	282.112	83	350.17905262118	0.21187094939247	0.17599657875054	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	36.5	31.154	33.827	3.5514955495996	1.31889835	2.47889835	7.31	9.78889835	T	T	4.5	277.5	83	352.02607776416	1.2502190485224	0.1614404499048	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.346	33.278	35.312	0	1.19685104	2.34685104	7.31	9.65685104	T	T	5.346	284.346	83	349.7980644861	0	0.18177465986116	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.184	30.956	34.07	3.8826124508691	1.21653609	2.37653609	7.31	9.68653609	T	T	5.184	280.184	83	352.23277987845	1.3675833767603	0.17776196418751	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.318	33.89	36.104	4.1183159859719	1.45275669	2.39275669	7.31	9.70275669	T	T	6.318	284.318	83	352.37981362636	1.4512114195912	0.20702078103525	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	39.146	34.232	36.689	0	1.18897702	2.10897702	7.31	9.41897702	T	T	7.146	285.146	83	349.7980644861	0	0.23007633577785	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.102	32.054	35.078	0	1.19685104	2.06685104	7.31	9.37685104	T	T	6.102	277.102	83	349.7980644861	0	0.20123858676014	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.13	30.596	33.863	6.3501847248335	1.28346526	2.60346526	7.31	9.91346526	T	T	5.13	278.13	83	353.76771676004	2.2464903511088	0.17643688349525	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-06 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.31	32.36	34.835	4.2493949484257	1.22834712	2.72834712	7.31	10.03834712	T	T	5.31	278.31	83	352.46154364947	1.4977483030984	0.18087809933064	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	36.68	33.026	34.853	0	1.24409516	2.79409516	7.31	10.10409516	T	T	4.68	275.68	83	349.7980644861	0	0.16563801049665	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	11	91	39.218	32.522	35.87	0	0.78346499	2.59346499	7.31	9.90346499	T	T	7.218	284.218	83	349.7980644861	0	0.23214675828985	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	40.298	32.576	36.437	3.5313411323251	0.46456718	1.97456718	7.31	9.28456718	T	T	8.298	281.298	83	352.01349061009	1.2430797185248	0.26441311271332	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	11	91	40.55	33.71	37.13	1.5184280040628	0.53543336	1.93543336	7.31	9.24543336	T	T	8.55	280.55	83	350.75310291668	0.53259333398059	0.27225703888822	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-05 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	40.28	33.602	36.941	0	0.46456718	1.82456718	7.31	9.13456718	T	T	8.28	283.28	83	349.7980644861	0	0.26385725994316	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	42.296	33.476	37.886	0	0.06692917	1.09692917	7.31	8.40692917	T	T	10.296	284.296	83	349.7980644861	0	0.3295609767174	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	41.432	31.928	36.68	0	0.06299216	1.02299216	7.31	8.33299216	T	T	9.432	283.432	83	349.7980644861	0	0.30058741079344	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	40.298	32.468	36.383	0	0	1.08	7.31	8.39	T	T	8.298	280.298	83	349.7980644861	0	0.26441311271332	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	40.298	30.704	35.501	0	0.22047256	2.53047256	7.31	9.84047256	T	T	8.298	284.298	83	349.7980644861	0	0.26441311271332	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	39.542	30.452	34.997	0	0.22834658	2.55834658	7.31	9.86834658	T	T	7.542	280.542	83	349.7980644861	0	0.24159060075388	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-10-04 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	39.488	31.55	35.519	1.6934548873573	0.23228359	2.59228359	7.31	9.90228359	T	T	7.488	276.488	83	350.86295216895	0.59417058114311	0.2400023055101	16	1	4	2	5	4	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	43.358	32.27	37.814	0.80269087225032	0	1.63	7.31	8.94	T	T	11.358	279.358	83	350.30338803935	0.28118533209755	0.36660988536721	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	43.718	30.704	37.211	0	0	1.53	7.31	8.84	T	T	11.718	275.718	83	349.7980644861	0	0.37947770115857	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-04 04:00:07	FORECAST	2024	11	91	43.214	32.27	37.742	0	0.05118113	1.04118113	7.31	8.35118113	T	T	11.214	283.214	83	349.7980644861	0	0.36150351384595	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	43.196	31.19	37.193	0	0.01574804	0.94574804	7.07	8.01574804	T	T	11.196	287.196	83	349.7980644861	0	0.36086692593849	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	42.728	31.874	37.301	0	0.02755907	0.98755907	7.07	8.05755907	T	T	10.728	293.728	83	349.7980644861	0	0.34445541669235	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2023-10-03 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	41.126	31.874	36.5	0	0.00787402	1.00787402	7.07	8.07787402	T	T	9.126	293.126	83	349.7980644861	0	0.29060861833861	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	41.522	32.054	36.788	0	0.05905515	1.36905515	7.07	8.43905515	T	T	9.522	285.522	83	349.7980644861	0	0.30355149512698	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-03 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	41.45	32.216	36.833	0	0.05511814	1.53511814	7.07	8.60511814	T	T	9.45	286.45	83	349.7980644861	0	0.30117918255625	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-03 04:00:08	FORECAST	2024	11	91	47.822	34.952	41.387	0	0.26377967	0.97377967	7.09	8.06377967	T	T	15.822	287.822	83	349.7980644861	0	0.5321446666757	16	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-10-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	43.142	34.862	39.002	0	0.40944904	2.05944904	6.33	8.38944904	T	T	11.142	278.142	83	349.7980644861	0	0.35895947886743	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-02 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	45.032	34.124	39.578	0	0.30314977	2.08314977	6.39	8.47314977	T	T	13.032	283.032	83	349.7980644861	0	0.42748542144058	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-02 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	42.494	33.062	37.778	0	0.36614193	2.22614193	6.4	8.62614193	T	T	10.494	282.494	83	349.7980644861	0	0.3363558502726	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-02 15:53:57	FORECAST	2024	11	91	42.494	33.062	37.778	0	0.36614193	2.22614193	6.4	8.62614193	T	T	10.494	282.494	83	349.7980644861	0	0.3363558502726	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-02 15:52:45	FORECAST	2024	11	91	42.494	33.062	37.778	0	0.36614193	2.22614193	6.4	8.62614193	T	T	10.494	282.494	83	349.7980644861	0	0.3363558502726	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	11	91	42.44	31.73	37.085	0	0.4330711	1.2430711	6.39	7.6330711	T	T	10.44	279.44	83	349.7980644861	0	0.33449728117667	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-02 08:00:05	FORECAST	2024	11	91	41.846	32.828	37.337	0	0.42913409	1.24913409	6.62	7.86913409	T	T	9.846	283.846	83	349.7980644861	0	0.31432844128319	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-02 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	11	91	51.008	36.914	43.961	0	0.0787402	0.9887402	6.66	7.6487402	T	T	19.008	297.008	83	349.7980644861	0	0.648582823524	16	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-10-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	38.336	34.988	36.662	0	0	1.16	6.49	7.65	T	T	6.336	276.336	83	349.7980644861	0	0.20750701878773	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-01 20:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	37.256	33.692	35.474	0	0	1.09	6.32	7.41	T	T	5.256	271.256	83	349.7980644861	0	0.17953845327554	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	H
2023-10-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	45.014	40.676	42.845	0	0.27952771	1.53952771	6.09	7.62952771	T	T	13.014	296.014	83	349.7980644861	0	0.42681870472935	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-01 12:00:05	FORECAST	2024	11	91	46.778	44.42	45.599	0	0	1.83	6.02	7.85	T	T	14.778	304.778	83	349.7980644861	0	0.49285288661809	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	11	91	45.248	43.718	44.483	0	0	1.56	5.96	7.52	T	T	13.248	304.248	83	349.7980644861	0	0.43550164401035	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	11	91	47.174	46.13	46.652	0	0.21259854	2.43259854	5.9	8.33259854	T	T	15.174	306.174	83	349.7980644861	0	0.5077691599542	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H