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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 10, 2023

[ Monday, October 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 11, 2023 ]

DAY 10 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/11/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.29°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.174
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 311

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.29 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 84
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 90

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 87.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-11 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024109038.5199632.0500435.28501.11.797.59.29TT6.51996310.5199684350.7390628119 00.1736467626943616 14255287.5WETH
2023-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024109037.95831.69434.8261.28674664573180.952756421.642756427.59.14275642TT5.958309.95883350.607621419870.451143180830040.16094582183981614254270WETH
2023-10-10 12:00:01FORECAST2024109037.20230.75833.980.986967198771020.968504461.658504467.59.15850446TT5.202309.20283350.419251454650.345852307003640.14483857546191614254270WETH
2023-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024109037.41830.84834.13300.933071371.623071377.59.12307137TT5.418309.41883349.798064486100.149326058272321614255287.5WETH
2023-10-10 04:00:03FORECAST2024109037.45432.10834.78101.027559611.717559617.59.21755961TT5.454309.45483349.798064486100.150082876505751614255287.5WETH
2023-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2024109039.27232.1835.72601.125984861.435984867.58.93598486TT7.272302.27284350.739062811900.191610477644681614245270WETH
2023-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2024109039.25432.25235.7530.355382950167651.149606921.499606927.58.99960692TT7.254303.25484350.962067575480.124725934971910.191167677582291614244256WETH
2023-10-09 16:00:02FORECAST2024109040.24434.0737.15700.968504461.318504467.58.81850446TT8.244304.24484350.739062811900.216443066479411614245270WETH
2023-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST2024109040.58633.45837.0220.337375573725440.862205191.212205197.58.71220519TT8.586304.58684350.950772688240.118402218285080.2256039509051614244256WETH
2023-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2024109039.50632.59436.0500.909449311.259449317.58.75944931TT7.506300.50684350.739062811900.197423764751681614245270WETH
2023-10-09 04:00:05FORECAST2024109038.76832.34235.5550.0848466730916170.86614221.29614227.58.7961422TT6.768298.76884350.792322862070.0297635615409270.17944974343161614244256WETH
2023-10-09 00:00:03FORECAST2024109038.62432.86435.7441.40414147320230.775590971.185590977.58.68559097TT6.624294.62484351.618996991080.493722816440960.176066158679071614244256WETH
2023-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2024109038.2132.52235.3660.719047326207450.7874021.0774027.58.577402TT6.21293.2184351.190060683750.252522274125280.166564601776831614244256WETH
2023-10-08 16:00:02FORECAST2024109037.74231.40634.57400.834646121.174646127.58.67464612TT5.742291.74284350.739062811900.156229112286951614245270WETH
2023-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST2024109035.92430.23633.082.125992548980.771653961.091653967.58.59165396TT3.924288.92484352.070139924720.74849849419830.120149272300821614244256WETH
2023-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST2024109037.97631.80234.88900.759842931.139842937.58.63984293TT5.976297.97684350.739062811900.161343022798981614245270WETH
2023-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST2024109038.15632.19835.1770.319682912228050.740157881.140157887.58.64015788TT6.156295.15684350.939674698590.112189417224010.165350069496661614244256WETH
2023-10-08 00:00:02FORECAST2024109038.17432.46835.3210.424976726359330.740157881.180157887.58.68015788TT6.174290.17484351.005714489410.149169259477130.165754276953341614244256WETH
2023-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST2024109038.31831.65834.98800.696850771.106850777.58.60685077TT6.318291.31884350.739062811900.16901085047331614245270WETH
2023-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST2024109037.18430.3833.7820.687052296898090.767716951.157716957.58.65771695TT5.184287.18484351.170010400030.241272162247070.144468749666861614244256WETH
2023-10-07 12:00:03FORECAST2024109038.91231.96435.43800.779527981.149527987.58.64952798TT6.912292.91284350.739062811900.182873819768731614245270WETH
2023-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST2024109038.44431.51434.9790.838412681978430.779527981.159527987.58.65952798TT6.444289.44484351.264848839730.294504904000470.171893745556421614244256WETH
2023-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST2024109039.07433.56636.320.715271992241280.602362530.942362537.58.44236253TT7.074292.07484351.187694884880.251194722170930.186774182371111614234242WETH
2023-10-07 00:00:03FORECAST2024109039.54233.92636.73400.566929440.916929447.58.41692944TT7.542291.54284350.739062811900.198327469087941614235252.5WETH
2023-10-06 20:00:03FORECAST2024109037.81432.16234.98800.527559340.867559347.58.36755934TT5.814284.81484350.739062811900.15779115325651614235252.5WETH
2023-10-06 16:00:03FORECAST2024109037.72432.46835.0961.49823567338380.759842931.319842937.58.81984293TT5.724286.72484351.677850937330.526896301813270.155840195034491614244256WETH
2023-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST2024109039.54233.24236.39201.066929711.496929717.58.99692971TT7.542286.54284350.739062811900.198327469087941614245270WETH
2023-10-06 08:00:03FORECAST2024109038.6633.38636.02301.070866721.550866727.59.05086672TT6.66284.6684350.739062811900.176908253940091614255287.5WETH
2023-10-06 04:00:04FORECAST2024109039.54234.39436.96801.22047311.81047317.59.3104731TT7.542290.54284350.739062811900.198327469087941614255287.5WETH
2023-10-06 00:00:03FORECAST2024109039.95634.44837.2022.11118051361790.968504461.508504467.59.00850446TT7.956286.95684352.060890999660.743264092685440.208898082576981614254270WETH
2023-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST2024109039.27234.98837.1300.889764261.399764267.58.89976426TT7.272286.27284350.739062811900.191610477644681614245270WETH
2023-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST2024109040.3735.13237.75100.82677211.35677217.58.8567721TT8.37289.3784350.739062811900.219792870733311614245270WETH
2023-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST2024109042.09836.66239.3800.362204921.032204927.58.53220492TT10.098288.09884350.739062811900.268622581411631624245280WETH
2023-10-05 08:00:04FORECAST2024109041.91835.79838.85800.377952960.957952967.58.45795296TT9.918287.91884350.739062811900.263293838917861624235260WETH
2023-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST2024109042.02634.57438.300.299212761.079212767.58.57921276TT10.026286.02684350.739062811900.266484605103551624245280WETH
2023-10-05 00:00:04FORECAST2024109039.41634.39436.90501.232284132.312284137.59.81228413TT7.416290.41684350.739062811900.195175400515261614255287.5WETH
2023-10-04 20:00:03FORECAST2024109039.2933.96236.62601.236221142.326221147.59.82622114TT7.29287.2984350.739062811900.192053903998881614255287.5WETH
2023-10-04 16:00:04FORECAST2024109039.99233.5336.7611.16828785816191.177165992.357165997.59.85716599TT7.992282.99284351.471413676480.410619785089240.209832660652421614254270WETH
2023-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST2024109037.36434.30435.8341.57808287225030.51181131.63181137.59.1318113TT5.364282.36484351.7277826520.55505558949770.148195603117661614254270WETH
2023-10-04 08:00:04FORECAST2024109035.25832.73833.99800.503937281.533937287.59.03393728TT3.258278.25884350.739062811900.108526361317851614255287.5WETH
2023-10-04 04:00:06FORECAST2024109039.00235.20437.10300.429134090.989134097.58.48913409TT7.002286.00284350.739062811900.185034386404331614235252.5WETH
2023-10-04 00:00:04FORECAST2024109041.4535.67238.56100.358267910.928267917.268.18826791TT9.45290.4584350.739062811900.249695921848361624235260WETH
2023-10-03 20:00:03FORECAST2024109042.29635.38438.8400.35433090.96433097.268.2243309TT10.296297.29684350.739062811900.274546059610511624235260WETH
2023-10-03 16:00:04FORECAST2024109043.21434.53838.87600.377952960.997952967.268.25795296TT11.214298.21484350.739062811900.302820969903291624245280WETH
2023-10-03 12:00:03FORECAST2024109041.16235.47438.31800.137795351.307795357.268.56779535TT9.162290.16284350.739062811900.241516896558551614245270WETH
2023-10-03 08:00:04FORECAST2024109041.10835.02438.06600.141732361.481732367.268.74173236TT9.108291.10884350.739062811900.239999665525491614245270WETH
2023-10-03 04:00:08FORECAST2024109043.64635.13239.38900.267716680.707716687.287.98771668TT11.646285.64684350.739062811900.316562571400161624235260WETH
2023-10-03 00:00:04FORECAST2024109041.21636.46438.8400.496063261.646063266.528.16606326TT9.216281.21684350.739062811900.243039313365421614255287.5WETH
2023-10-02 20:00:04FORECAST2024109042.60236.37439.48800.47244121.78244126.588.3624412TT10.602283.60284350.739062811900.283825289120516242552100WETH
2023-10-02 16:00:04FORECAST2024109041.9935.40238.69600.507874291.857874296.598.44787429TT9.99285.9984350.739062811900.2654188497779216242552100WETH
2023-10-02 15:53:56FORECAST2024109041.9935.40238.69600.507874291.857874296.598.44787429TT9.99285.9984350.739062811900.2654188497779216242552100WETH
2023-10-02 15:52:45FORECAST2024109041.9935.40238.69600.507874291.857874296.598.44787429TT9.99285.9984350.739062811900.2654188497779216242552100WETH
2023-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST2024109044.36637.81441.0900.362204920.812204926.587.39220492TT12.366283.36684350.739062811900.340029833682391624235260WETH
2023-10-02 08:00:04FORECAST2024109043.5236.82440.17200.358267910.818267916.817.62826791TT11.52287.5284350.739062811900.312527258441631624235260WETH
2023-10-02 04:00:06FORECAST2024109046.79639.50643.15100.031496080.911496086.857.76149608TT14.796291.79684350.739062811900.423409984367081624235260WETH
2023-10-02 00:00:04FORECAST2024109043.7936.19439.99200.200787511.160787516.687.84078751TT11.79283.7984350.739062811900.321201193976181624245280WETH
2023-10-01 20:00:04FORECAST2024109042.58435.38438.98400.19685051.08685056.517.5968505TT10.584279.58484350.739062811900.283275325505121624245280WETH
2023-10-01 16:00:04FORECAST2024109047.51636.5942.05300.736220871.256220876.287.53622087TT15.516296.51684350.739062811900.448983997997881624245280WETH
2023-10-01 12:00:05FORECAST2024109053.90638.1246.01301.342520411.832520416.218.04252041TT21.906303.90684350.739062811900.6729937157082316342552112.5WETH
2023-10-01 08:00:03FORECAST2024109052.55637.88645.22101.055118681.555118686.157.70511868TT20.556304.55684350.739062811900.6279441571821116342552112.5WETH
2023-10-01 04:00:05FORECAST2024109053.27640.17246.72402.031497162.221497166.098.31149716TT21.276305.27684350.739062811900.6522355544130416342552112.5WETH
2023-10-01 00:00:04FORECAST2024109040.67634.08837.38200.334645850.674645856.076.74464585TT8.676292.67684350.739062811900.228050613326211614235252.5WETH
2023-09-30 20:00:05FORECAST2024109041.16230.18235.67200.322834820.662834826.126.78283482TT9.162284.16284350.739062811900.241516896558551614235252.5WETH
2023-09-30 16:00:04FORECAST2024109049.24444.40246.82300.523622330.683622336.176.85362233TT17.244312.24484350.739062811900.511028680001851634235267.5WETH
2023-09-30 12:00:04FORECAST2024109049.47846.97648.2270006.126.12TF17.478316.47884350.739062811900.519443392487371634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-30 08:00:05FORECAST2024109049.4646.59848.0290006.226.22TF17.46313.4684350.739062811900.518796366554341634215222.5WETMH
2023-09-30 04:00:06FORECAST2024109044.34842.74643.54700.03937010.18937016.086.2693701TF12.348317.34884350.739062811900.339435049738411624225240WETMH