Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 12, 2023

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DAY 12 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/13/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.90°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.57°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.73°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.421 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 305 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.88 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.98 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.86 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 82 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 348.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 92 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-13 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2024	12	92	45.89996	33.56996	39.73496	0	0	1.88	6.98	8.86	T	T	13.89996	304.89996	82	348.85348356404	0	0.42086308365086	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	45.32	31.838	38.579	0	0	1.88	6.98	8.86	T	T	13.32	304.32	81	347.90530640596	0	0.39840914971249	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	45.608	31.406	38.507	0	0	1.88	6.98	8.86	T	T	13.608	304.608	81	347.90530640596	0	0.40952239034206	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-12 08:00:01	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.094	33.116	39.605	0	0	1.88	6.98	8.86	T	T	14.094	305.094	81	347.90530640596	0	0.42843734795713	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-12 04:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.13	32.486	39.308	0	0	1.88	6.98	8.86	T	T	14.13	305.13	81	347.90530640596	0	0.42984558260495	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.022	30.884	38.453	1.4626105049986	0	2.01	6.98	8.99	T	T	14.022	304.022	82	349.77698253837	0.51158748906734	0.42562362775065	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.274	31.37	38.822	0	0	2.06	6.98	9.04	T	T	14.274	306.274	82	348.85348356404	0	0.43548727536212	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-11 16:00:01	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.454	31.136	38.795	0	0	2.06	6.98	9.04	T	T	14.454	306.454	82	348.85348356404	0	0.44255776458793	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.76	33.044	39.902	0.91521319821305	0	2.06	6.98	9.04	T	T	14.76	306.76	82	349.43175504007	0.31980455408742	0.45461849453024	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.598	33.458	40.028	0.85795108074808	0	1.92	6.98	8.9	T	T	14.598	306.598	82	349.39561375455	0.29976434442935	0.44822746958801	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.112	31.208	38.66	0.85676426435763	0	1.95	6.98	8.93	T	T	14.112	305.112	82	349.39486463356	0.2993490341681	0.42914135255959	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.292	33.836	40.064	2.0093958074572	0	1.75	6.98	8.73	T	T	14.292	305.292	82	350.12134520026	0.70353236314667	0.4361934354762	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.238	31.91	39.074	0	0	1.82	6.98	8.8	T	T	14.238	303.238	82	348.85348356404	0	0.43407557424673	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-10 16:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.076	33.548	39.812	0.9095649479617	0	1.98	6.98	8.96	T	T	14.076	303.076	82	349.428190351	0.31782763377295	0.42773357098793	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	45.986	31.496	38.741	2.6669547243048	0	2.14	6.98	9.12	T	T	13.986	302.986	82	350.53483961725	0.93486054655063	0.42421817714948	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	45.626	32.09	38.858	0	0	2.12	6.98	9.1	T	T	13.626	302.626	82	348.85348356404	0	0.41021948760898	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-10 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.526	32.108	39.317	0	0.00787402	2.24787402	6.98	9.22787402	T	T	14.526	303.526	82	348.85348356404	0	0.44539122103771	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.256	32.648	39.452	0	0	2.32	6.6	8.92	T	T	14.256	296.256	82	348.85348356404	0	0.43478132088259	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	47.174	33.17	40.172	1.0241127534709	0	2.34	6.64	8.98	T	T	15.174	299.174	82	349.50047306244	0.35792789180734	0.47100069709154	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	47.228	34.826	41.027	0	0.00787402	2.35787402	6.64	8.99787402	T	T	15.228	300.228	82	348.85348356404	0	0.4731417287572	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	48.344	33.44	40.892	0.4668852118063	0	1.78	6.64	8.42	T	T	16.344	303.344	82	349.14864989664	0.16301234135888	0.51747259895154	16	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.436	33.332	39.884	0	0	1.68	6.64	8.32	T	T	14.436	296.436	82	348.85348356404	0	0.44184985349347	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	12	92	47.408	32.162	39.785	0.38656066747273	0	1.79	6.72	8.51	T	T	15.408	294.408	82	349.09789338836	0.13494751468153	0.48028375993793	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	45.41	33.332	39.371	3.2636202213431	0	1.95	6.7	8.65	T	T	13.41	288.41	82	350.90944509374	1.1452351608682	0.40187365384023	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.256	34.754	40.505	1.930236023964	0	1.93	6.58	8.51	T	T	14.256	288.256	82	350.07152036553	0.67572065957341	0.43478132088259	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	44.906	33.008	38.957	0	0	2.04	6.63	8.67	T	T	12.906	284.906	82	348.85348356404	0	0.38257928012715	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	44.546	31.118	37.832	4.2793696303856	0	1.76	6.61	8.37	T	T	12.546	280.546	82	351.54586025991	1.504394678084	0.36897081397296	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	47.138	33.026	40.082	0	0.00787402	1.81787402	6.67	8.48787402	T	T	15.138	294.138	82	348.85348356404	0	0.46957380431874	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-08 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.796	33.314	40.055	2.4679741266715	0	1.85	6.69	8.54	T	T	14.796	289.796	82	350.40978701513	0.86480228808581	0.45604037850355	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.814	33.332	40.073	2.7192377322265	0	2.13	6.73	8.86	T	T	14.814	285.814	82	350.56768724252	0.95327688284925	0.45675153281029	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	45.518	32.306	38.912	0	0.00787402	2.08787402	6.7	8.78787402	T	T	13.518	283.518	82	348.85348356404	0	0.40604123459607	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	45.644	32.072	38.858	2.7442219495996	0	2.09	6.68	8.77	T	T	13.644	279.644	82	350.58338243134	0.96207861323294	0.41091686863166	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	47.156	32.81	39.983	0	0	1.98	6.66	8.64	T	T	15.156	287.156	82	348.85348356404	0	0.4702872030164	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.076	29.444	37.76	3.0762244508691	0	2	6.67	8.67	T	T	14.076	282.076	82	350.79185324721	1.0791144761248	0.42773357098793	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-07 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	12	92	48.146	34.574	41.36	2.9594591859719	0	2.05	6.63	8.68	T	T	16.146	288.146	82	350.71855411162	1.0379372466564	0.50960750833859	16	3	4	2	5	4	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	48.2	34.232	41.216	0	0	1.76	6.64	8.4	T	T	16.2	289.2	82	348.85348356404	0	0.51175303242865	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.688	32.99	39.839	0	0	1.73	6.63	8.36	T	T	14.688	279.688	82	348.85348356404	0	0.45177648831842	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	45.5	30.146	37.823	5.5395655248335	0	2.04	6.85	8.89	T	T	13.5	279.5	82	352.33315393223	1.9517725927788	0.40534588437637	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-06 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.328	32.666	39.497	3.3065261484257	0	2.3	6.72	9.02	T	T	14.328	280.328	82	350.93636091825	1.1603802538096	0.43760636376161	16	2	4	2	5	4	2	80	WET	H
2023-10-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	46.238	32.792	39.515	0	0	2.31	6.77	9.08	T	T	14.238	278.238	82	348.85348356404	0	0.43407557424673	16	2	4	2	5	5	2	100	WET	H
2023-10-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2024	12	92	48.002	32.918	40.46	0	0	2	6.88	8.88	T	T	16.002	288.002	82	348.85348356404	0	0.50388492015628	16	3	4	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2023-10-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	49.964	33.872	41.918	2.2364955323251	0	1.43	6.83	8.26	T	T	17.964	286.964	82	350.26423096507	0.78336438768668	0.58129611554237	16	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	WET	H
2023-10-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2024	12	92	50.72	35.114	42.917	0.064764804062765	0	1.43	6.8	8.23	T	T	18.72	287.72	82	348.89444899454	0.022596080627718	0.61046460203525	16	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	WET	H
2023-10-05 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	51.116	33.854	42.485	0	0	1.29	6.82	8.11	T	T	19.116	290.116	82	348.85348356404	0	0.62550959586739	16	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	51.044	33.656	42.35	0	0	0.43	6.96	7.39	T	T	19.044	291.044	82	348.85348356404	0	0.62278756134277	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2023-10-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	51.296	33.062	42.179	0	0	0.44	6.87	7.31	T	T	19.296	290.296	82	348.85348356404	0	0.63228711572369	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2023-10-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	52.106	36.428	44.267	0	0	0.3	7.07	7.37	T	T	20.106	288.106	82	348.85348356404	0	0.6622523399008	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2023-10-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	50.018	34.502	42.26	0	0	1.45	7.37	8.82	T	T	18.018	290.018	82	348.85348356404	0	0.58339652614716	16	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	49.244	32.324	40.784	0	0	1.47	7.38	8.85	T	T	17.244	286.244	82	348.85348356404	0	0.55309209297221	16	3	4	2	4	5	2	90	WET	H
2023-10-04 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	48.704	35.78	42.242	0.27452688735728	0	1.41	7.47	8.88	T	T	16.704	280.704	82	349.02708274281	0.095817318628776	0.53175322668117	16	3	4	2	4	4	2	72	WET	H
2023-10-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	50.792	39.236	45.014	0	0	0.51	7.41	7.92	T	T	18.792	285.792	82	348.85348356404	0	0.61321313851648	16	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-10-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	52.304	37.598	44.951	0	0	0.5	7.32	7.82	T	T	20.304	284.304	82	348.85348356404	0	0.66943195739711	16	3	4	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	H
2023-10-04 04:00:07	FORECAST	2024	12	92	54.95	38.912	46.931	0	0	0.48	6.85	7.33	T	T	22.95	293.95	82	348.85348356404	0	0.75865749782326	16	4	4	2	2	5	2	50	WET	H
2023-10-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	50.9	34.916	42.908	0	0	0.38	6.62	7	T	T	18.9	293.9	82	348.85348356404	0	0.61732528140835	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2023-10-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	50.126	34.646	42.386	0	0	0.38	6.66	7.04	T	T	18.126	300.126	82	348.85348356404	0	0.58759015557064	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	WET	H
2023-10-03 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	47.858	30.002	38.93	0	0	0.39	6.67	7.06	T	T	15.858	296.858	82	348.85348356404	0	0.49816153243027	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2024	12	92	47.318	29.192	38.255	0	0	0.2	7.22	7.42	T	T	15.318	289.318	82	348.85348356404	0	0.47671180925651	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-03 08:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	47.336	29.444	38.39	0	0	0.2	7.39	7.59	T	T	15.336	289.336	82	348.85348356404	0	0.47742605893478	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2023-10-03 04:00:08	FORECAST	2024	12	92	58.208	35.726	46.967	0	0.05905515	0.58905515	6.51	7.09905515	T	T	26.208	302.208	82	348.85348356404	0	0.8477272383855	16	4	4	2	3	5	2	75	WET	H
2023-10-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	36.122	32.666	34.394	0	0	0.91	6.46	7.37	T	T	4.122	270.122	82	348.85348356404	0	0.12015915826577	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-02 20:00:05	FORECAST	2024	12	92	35.456	32.576	34.016	0	0	0.77	6.68	7.45	T	T	3.456	274.456	82	348.85348356404	0	0.10736962336459	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-02 16:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	40.37	32.864	36.617	0	0.05905515	0.93905515	6.73	7.66905515	T	T	8.37	278.37	82	348.85348356404	0	0.22642505543787	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-02 15:53:57	FORECAST	2024	12	92	40.37	32.864	36.617	0	0.05905515	0.93905515	6.73	7.66905515	T	T	8.37	278.37	82	348.85348356404	0	0.22642505543787	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-02 15:52:45	FORECAST	2024	12	92	40.37	32.864	36.617	0	0.05905515	0.93905515	6.73	7.66905515	T	T	8.37	278.37	82	348.85348356404	0	0.22642505543787	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2023-10-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2024	12	92	32.018	29.462	30.74	0	0	0.79	5.82	6.61	T	T	0.018000000000001	267.018	82	348.85348356404	0	0.056601320749443	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2023-10-02 08:00:05	FORECAST	2024	12	92	32.198	30.614	31.406	0	0	0.79	6.06	6.85	T	T	0.198	272.198	82	348.85348356404	0	0.05867766878863	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2023-10-02 04:00:06	FORECAST	2024	12	92	40.424	39.164	39.794	0	0	0.11	6.52	6.63	T	F	8.424	293.424	82	348.85348356404	0	0.22804804165356	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M