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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 26, 2023

[ Thursday, May 25, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 27, 2023 ]

DAY 238 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/27/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.729
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 459

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 87 in
SWE DAY: 145
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -47

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-27 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023238-4756.5899843.3700649.9800286.53772062500.041.051.09FF24.58998458.58998145440.55609591748 38.1247203481480.7294503734494816 4131124DRYL
2023-05-27 00:00:01FORECAST2023238-4653.09638.37245.73484.18461840.051181130.091181131.051.14118113FF21.096455.096146440.2132040926937.0591806011840.59778731121381163132127DRYL
2023-05-26 12:00:01FORECAST2023238-4652.64637.47245.05986.30023840.074803190.114803191.051.16480319FF20.646454.646146441.0582890147938.0634354902730.57957486565243163132127DRYL
2023-05-26 08:00:02FORECAST2023238-4653.0639.05646.05886.17359760.027559070.067559071.051.11755907FF21.06455.06146441.0078299979438.0032312806920.59633754389234163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 04:00:07FORECAST2023238-4653.58240.22646.90486.1966750.031496080.071496081.051.12149608FF21.582455.582146441.0170262133638.0142012779790.61721996163384163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2023238-4753.45640.71247.08484.42483280.043307110.053307111.051.10330711FF21.456451.456145439.709402912237.122392821450.61220796000625163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2023238-4753.58240.17246.87788.06575120.066929170.066929171.051.11692917FF21.582452.582145441.1655951512938.8515795405940.61721996163384163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 16:00:01FORECAST2023238-4753.02440.60446.81488.04410320.094488240.094488241.051.14448824FF21.024452.024145441.156976728938.841270386520.59488645200084163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2023238-4753.67241.66647.66986.2726080.200787510.200787511.051.25078751FF21.672452.672145440.4501070429637.9987794284750.62078804092119163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2023238-4754.0541.6347.8486.2573560.161417410.171417411.051.22141741FF22.05452.05145440.4440073033637.9915355360320.63565871035883163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 04:00:15FORECAST2023238-4752.8841.50447.19286.3176610285710.102362260.102362261.051.15236226FF20.88451.88145440.4681237421738.0201781990670.58906922257432163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 00:00:04FORECAST2023238-4753.92442.31448.11986.24708320.098425250.108425251.051.15842525FF21.924450.924145440.4398987643937.9866565933320.6307232003335163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 20:00:03FORECAST2023238-4754.39241.01847.70588.34168480.137795350.157795351.051.20779535FF22.392451.392145441.2754073176838.983012943250.64894015172542163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 16:00:03FORECAST2023238-4754.75241.5448.14688.16358080.094488240.114488241.051.16448824FF22.752451.752145441.2045368037438.8981718298230.66272653164605163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 12:00:05FORECAST2023238-4756.49841.43248.96587.05864720.114173290.164173291.051.21417329FF24.498453.498145440.7641483819338.3723304923910.7262734098648164132128DRYL
2023-05-24 08:00:03FORECAST2023238-4753.74440.69447.21987.20408240.188976480.228976481.051.27897648FF21.744451.744145440.8221844952238.4414941004690.62363513292993163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 04:00:10FORECAST2023238-4753.11441.52247.31887.7440764347830.066929170.096929171.051.14692917FF21.114449.114145441.0374823635838.6984265631140.59851169219092163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2023238-4756.46243.44849.95586.03135120.019685050.039685051.051.08968505FF24.462458.462145440.3535933969437.8842146457140.72502498085351164131124DRYL
2023-05-23 20:00:03FORECAST2023238-4755.81442.8949.35287.52856640.102362260.132362261.051.18236226FF23.814460.814145440.9515930235638.5958607891480.70208656509166164132128DRYL
2023-05-23 16:00:05FORECAST2023238-4756.1242.74649.43387.54381840.074803190.164803191.051.21480319FF24.12461.12145440.9576730996338.603118455920.71302710276933164132128DRYL
2023-05-23 12:00:04FORECAST2023238-4753.8743.26848.56987.25609680.082677210.172677211.051.22267721FF21.87453.87145440.8429357075538.4662338716940.62860131533534163132127DRYL
2023-05-23 08:00:05FORECAST2023238-4753.92441.8147.86787.59036160.090551230.210551231.051.26055123FF21.924453.924145440.9762256821638.6252670645040.6307232003335163132127DRYL
2023-05-23 04:00:13FORECAST2023238-4752.71843.46648.09287.3490950833330.133858340.243858341.051.29385834FF20.718455.718145440.8800306610838.5104717185570.58250141186454163132127DRYL
2023-05-23 00:00:05FORECAST2023238-4755.77844.65450.21687.30014080.090551230.120551230.790.91055123FF23.778465.778145440.8605049749838.4871841574750.70078705098394164132128DRYL
2023-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2023238-4755.90443.749.80287.54082720.094488240.184488240.790.97448824FF23.904466.904145440.9564807025438.6016950799010.70532404872009164132128DRYL
2023-05-22 16:00:05FORECAST2023238-4754.26641.23447.7588.13014480.027559070.157559070.790.94755907FF22.266460.266145441.1912284940838.8822468516730.64406710311218163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 12:00:06FORECAST2023238-4757.0243.93450.47787.48011440.027559070.127559070.790.91755907FF25.02465.02145440.9322764958538.572805990510.74405479487121164132128DRYL
2023-05-22 08:00:04FORECAST2023238-4756.33644.63650.48687.4141835484550.023622060.113622060.790.90362206FF24.336461.336145440.9059877948938.5414369447150.72063353921987164132128DRYL
2023-05-22 04:00:08FORECAST2023238-4755.68843.50249.59587.12310540.074803190.114803190.790.90480319FF23.688464.688145440.7898731591338.4029825784960.69752707873755163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2023238-4759.34243.46651.40485.839294400.070.790.86FF27.342472.342145440.2767196869237.7930429586720.81528798646654164131124DRYL
2023-05-21 20:00:05FORECAST2023238-4760.31443.82652.0788.10776880.007874020.097874020.790.88787402FF28.314469.314145441.1823216916738.8715899982570.84104028451262164132128DRYL
2023-05-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023238-4760.6245.93253.27687.88064977925600.080.80.88FF28.62471.62145441.0918879526738.7634417256390.84863668055627164131124DRYL
2023-05-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023238-4754.08638.6646.37387.3008888000.790.79FF22.086464.086145440.8608033371738.4875399684170.6370647775787163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023238-4753.74437.99445.86987.8996528000.790.79FF21.744461.744145441.0994565326338.7724890794870.62363513292993163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-21 04:00:19FORECAST2023238-4753.07839.07446.07687.870631726316000.790.79FF21.078462.078145441.087897785538.7586722252450.59706259431916163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-21 00:00:06FORECAST2023238-4749.0137.83243.42197.2268136000.830.83FF17.01455.01145444.7705586720443.2436242027740.42956483011328162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 20:00:04FORECAST2023238-4750.16237.18443.673102.9665648000.830.83FF18.162455.162145446.9868331520146.0246987204930.47702227542036162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023238-4747.78635.00641.396103.474604000.830.83FF15.786449.786145447.1814488606146.2719233369980.38024890042884162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023238-4749.78437.14843.466100.3866152000.830.83FF17.784454.784145445.9946409033344.7718923976240.46138087599345162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 08:00:06FORECAST2023238-4746.79635.38441.09102.0175952000.820.82FF14.796436.796145446.622635901745.5633672765770.34169997862561162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 04:00:14FORECAST2023238-4748.03835.7841.909102.35469758907000.910.91FF16.038433.038145446.752110203845.7271771371890.39027245807974162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 00:00:10FORECAST2023238-4756.13839.30847.72387.225712000.870.87FF24.138453.138145440.8308139851738.4517816213960.71366469905671164131124DRYL
2023-05-19 20:00:05FORECAST2023238-4754.33839.09246.71592.9678248000.860.86FF22.338448.338145443.1050377500441.1945115175430.64685464332152163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 16:00:06FORECAST2023238-4753.09640.146.59892.693584000.880.88FF21.096452.096145442.9971744076541.0629957977180.59778731121381163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 12:00:06FORECAST2023238-4758.02840.06449.04689.2971112000.870.87FF26.028455.028145441.6550403954839.4385192542350.77660922964693164131124DRYL
2023-05-19 08:00:05FORECAST2023238-4757.9239.41648.66889.625885376576000.890.89FF25.92451.92145441.7854639725839.5954133550440.7732377995336164131124DRYL
2023-05-19 04:00:20FORECAST2023238-4755.16640.08247.62489.4021183000.890.89FF23.166452.166145441.696708186939.4886213580460.67831414470837163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 00:00:06FORECAST2023238-4752.66440.5546.60787.2466554402240.062992160.112992160.870.98299216FF20.664442.664145440.8391692684738.4617431057210.58030692130763163132127DRYL
2023-05-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023238-4752.740.76646.73392.51368960.062992160.062992160.90.96299216FF20.7441.7145442.9263782111640.976753469480.58177019687106163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-18 16:00:05FORECAST2023238-4756.15639.1147.63392.8835752000.940.94FF24.156444.156145443.0719090148241.1541029799850.7143016227905164131124DRYL
2023-05-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023238-4756.64240.94648.79489.34078160.098425250.098425251.061.15842525FF24.642458.642145441.6723705652139.459354797420.73123894901877164132128DRYL
2023-05-18 08:00:05FORECAST2023238-4754.89639.5647.22889.01586480.03937010.03937010.940.9793701FF22.896455.896145441.5433844543139.304366213920.66818176912984163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023238-4765.33647.356.31884.8434346315790.051181130.091181130.981.07118113FF33.336488.336145439.8775094659737.3207187202780.9360094330696165132129DRYL
2023-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023238-4765.33647.356.31882.017460.051181130.091181130.981.07118113FF33.336480.336145438.7391472097735.9842704567120.9360094330696165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 20:00:04FORECAST2023238-4765.33647.356.31887.70604320.051181130.091181130.981.07118113FF33.336479.336145441.0223280196438.6803233534550.9360094330696165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 16:00:08FORECAST2023238-4760.2639.34449.80291.49995360.110236280.320236280.961.28023628FF28.26448.26145442.5268240858540.491183870610.83967431714926164132128DRYL
2023-05-17 12:00:05FORECAST2023238-4763.73438.62451.17989.34027040.098425250.298425250.961.25842525FF31.734453.734145441.6721677116239.4591108915110.91229650244955165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023238-4764.09437.07650.58590.66739120.086614220.266614220.931.19661422FF32.094444.094145442.1979074518740.092930662760.91812462842291165132129DRYL
2023-05-17 04:00:11FORECAST2023238-4759.91838.44449.18190.9346343453730.086614220.266614221.011.27661422FF27.918434.918145442.3035617939140.2207126613860.83084610262234164132128DRYL
2023-05-17 00:00:04FORECAST2023238-4752.50238.98445.743107.39055280.192913490.422913491.11.52291349FF20.502420.502145448.6731415631948.1832566989840.57370871696005163132127DRYL
2023-05-16 20:00:07FORECAST2023238-4752.55637.99445.275111.486792565740.15748040.33748041.261.5974804FF20.556425.556145450.2177156471850.1933290737790.57591050719687163132127DRYL
2023-05-16 16:00:08FORECAST2023238-4736.0533.834.925113.670838365850.169291430.429291431.141.56929143FF4.05399.05145451.0347113968151.2694937765770.06339391666374161132125DRYL
2023-05-16 12:00:07FORECAST2023238-4732.21630.43431.325113.89503412020.350393890.840393891.252.09039389FF0.216412.216145451.1183210868651.3801365724370.026967395732144161133127.5DRYL
2023-05-16 08:00:04FORECAST2023238-4732.21630.43431.325113.673916909680.350393890.840393891.412.25039389FF0.216414.216145451.0358598056451.2710128508350.026967395732144161133127.5DRYL
2023-05-16 04:00:21FORECAST2023238-4729.49828.88629.192110.615084234060.035433090.565433091.131.69543309FF-2.502421.498145449.8903642507549.764660537690.013492030381595161133127.5DRYL