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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 25, 2023

[ Wednesday, May 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, May 26, 2023 ]

DAY 237 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/26/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.709
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 443

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.14 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 88 in
SWE DAY: 144
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -48

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-26 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023237-4856.4499438.9600647.70588.1218710.0400000000000770.0400000000000771.11.1400000000001FF24.44994443.44994144440.59129641174 38.8257293861180.7090417529556916 4131124DRYL
2023-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2023237-4752.44835.90644.17786.38732240.011811030.011811031.11.11181103FF20.448439.448145440.4959772557338.0532680030940.57138775972176163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 12:00:01FORECAST2023237-4752.64636.03244.33988.32060720.003937010.003937011.11.10393701FF20.646439.646145441.267021866138.972971308550.57857436018072163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 08:00:01FORECAST2023237-4751.9835.54643.76388.3611480.007874020.007874021.11.10787402FF19.98438.98145441.2831501023538.99228573610.55431110634491163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 04:00:14FORECAST2023237-4752.8835.65444.26788.323249828571001.11.1FF20.88439.88145441.2680732264438.9742302729520.58703381568456163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 00:00:03FORECAST2023237-4853.72636.5945.15888.3072840.007874020.007874021.11.10787402FF21.726437.726144440.6653633492838.9139613902480.61725542761013163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-24 20:00:02FORECAST2023237-4853.74434.82644.28590.35258720.019685050.019685051.11.11968505FF21.744437.744144441.480090199339.8888683467960.61789145309444163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-24 16:00:02FORECAST2023237-4853.85236.48245.16790.2676680.019685050.019685051.11.11968505FF21.852437.852144441.4463476042339.8483323453510.62170087449573163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-24 12:00:04FORECAST2023237-4854.03237.59845.81589.1823160.051181130.051181131.11.15118113FF22.032438.032144441.0144420376939.3306893303690.62802354414282163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-24 08:00:03FORECAST2023237-4853.67236.8645.26689.166080.035433090.035433091.11.13543309FF21.672438.672144441.0079720317339.3229521148190.61534545999431163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-24 04:00:10FORECAST2023237-4853.1537.00445.07789.7168980347830.027559070.027559071.11.12755907FF21.15437.15144441.2273227062639.5855467213970.59674451258947163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2023237-4855.2238.69646.95888.33223840.015748040.015748041.11.11574804FF23.22443.22144440.6753292213238.9258382377760.66882139729735163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-23 20:00:02FORECAST2023237-4855.27437.92246.59889.8157760.031496080.031496081.11.13149608FF23.274446.274144441.2666661133639.6327080399040.67063338527601163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-23 16:00:04FORECAST2023237-4855.3138.60646.95889.79009360.086614220.086614221.11.18661422FF23.31446.31144441.2564480714539.6204577739390.67183915969843163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-23 12:00:04FORECAST2023237-4852.41237.68845.0589.38911360.07874020.08874021.11.1887402FF20.412441.412144441.0968270332139.4292543802710.57007848511697163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-23 08:00:03FORECAST2023237-4852.10635.56443.83589.5825680.059055150.119055151.11.21905515FF20.106441.106144441.1738571362739.5214870567320.55891995073203163132127DRYL
2023-05-23 04:00:12FORECAST2023237-4855.38238.76847.07589.40152228333300.111.11.21FF23.382444.382144441.1017690864639.4351696382010.67424533804488163132127DRYL
2023-05-23 00:00:05FORECAST2023237-4856.8440.11848.47989.600929600.030.840.87FF24.84450.84144441.1811664323939.5302426343550.72130384413589164131124DRYL
2023-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2023237-4855.8539.7447.79589.78907040.07874020.08874020.840.9287402FF23.85451.85144441.2560409656139.6199697266870.68970549804548163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-22 16:00:05FORECAST2023237-4852.64638.22845.43790.19428160.122047310.132047310.840.97204731FF20.646446.646144441.4171816974339.8133055890960.57857436018072163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 12:00:06FORECAST2023237-4853.65439.45246.55389.84781520.086614220.096614220.840.93661422FF21.654448.654144441.2794123477639.6479910921860.61470817911237163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 08:00:04FORECAST2023237-4852.48440.04646.26589.8111091484550.094488240.094488240.840.93448824FF20.484446.484144441.2648094016939.6304819605470.57269624923986163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 04:00:08FORECAST2023237-4853.5139.09246.30189.37626860.03937010.03937010.840.8793701FF21.51449.51144441.0917110423939.4231312433580.60959891537429163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2023237-4856.53438.96647.7588.34652640.074803190.074803190.840.91480319FF24.534453.534144440.6810350400738.9326386961470.71170548429387164131124DRYL
2023-05-21 20:00:05FORECAST2023237-4856.37239.41647.89490.68781680.086614220.086614220.840.92661422FF24.372450.372144441.6132224341740.0489390125680.70656173841562164131124DRYL
2023-05-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023237-4857.59639.75848.67790.6302409792560.082677210.082677210.850.93267721FF25.596451.596144441.5903649805440.0214411923040.74432950266052164131124DRYL
2023-05-21 12:00:04FORECAST2023237-4855.439.8347.61589.2866992000.840.84FF23.4451.4144441.0560321140939.3804372697160.6748457559947163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-21 08:00:04FORECAST2023237-4854.64438.40846.52689.787752000.840.84FF22.644448.644144441.2555164054739.6193408756460.64925467579941163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-21 04:00:18FORECAST2023237-4856.26439.32647.79589.824462126316000.840.84FF24.264450.264144441.2701218390239.6368513466040.70310915236032164131124DRYL
2023-05-21 00:00:05FORECAST2023237-4853.20437.54445.37498.7497504000.880.88FF21.204447.204144444.7810108501143.9220138041090.59867971995402163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-20 20:00:03FORECAST2023237-4853.34837.59845.473104.5305344000.880.88FF21.348446.348144447.0128608304446.7264932262790.60382833345435163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023237-4853.22236.71644.969104.7510488000.880.88FF21.222443.222144447.0973500456346.8339163329810.59932425419114163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023237-4853.29435.88844.591101.917916000.880.88FF21.294446.294144446.0082364370145.4562299764950.60189967199372163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023237-4849.76632.9941.378103.24484000.870.87FF17.766430.766144446.5193087167946.1008145853750.47269170108508162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 04:00:13FORECAST2023237-4849.53232.70241.117103.6423599890700.10.860.96FF17.532425.532144446.6720807776746.2941485930260.46407249592981162132126DRYL
2023-05-20 00:00:09FORECAST2023237-4854.01435.43844.72689.3026408000.920.92FF22.014438.014144441.0623828587639.3880355468280.62739279587063163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 20:00:05FORECAST2023237-4853.13236.48244.80794.970264800.010.90.91FF21.132435.132144443.3040066748742.1006989008140.59609891419059163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 16:00:06FORECAST2023237-4853.20437.90445.55494.580108800.050.880.93FF21.204440.204144443.1507266893741.913243945080.59867971995402163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 12:00:05FORECAST2023237-4853.09637.1345.11391.5574576000.920.92FF21.096438.096144441.9580613687440.4645564647460.59480693359226163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 08:00:04FORECAST2023237-4853.45637.0445.24891.828569376576000.940.94FF21.456435.456144442.0654097510740.5942341483110.60767799979544163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 04:00:20FORECAST2023237-4851.54837.8544.69991.4875095000.940.94FF19.548437.548144441.9303529878840.4311073673170.53845735348854163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 00:00:05FORECAST2023237-4851.74638.08444.91589.15354904022400.050.920.97FF19.746430.746144441.0029782927239.3169806521050.54573279086335163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023237-4851.92639.07445.594.4313088000.950.95FF19.926429.926144443.0922278378441.8417789938350.5523336012132163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-18 16:00:05FORECAST2023237-4852.30436.33844.32194.947613600.040.950.99FF20.304429.304144443.295111885742.0898129940920.56614609180358163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023237-4858.58637.61648.10191.4556928001.111.11FF26.586442.586144441.917747882340.4158937931910.77291061502516164131124DRYL
2023-05-18 08:00:05FORECAST2023237-4856.78637.83247.30990.946768000.990.99FF24.786441.786144441.7159840828740.1726411262770.71962136232375164131124DRYL
2023-05-18 04:00:13FORECAST2023237-4860.60243.68252.14288.0957514315790.03937010.03937011.031.0693701FF28.602463.602144440.580859623538.8133018949030.82517564172516164131124DRYL
2023-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023237-4860.60243.68252.14285.26977680.03937010.03937011.031.0693701FF28.602455.602144439.4475641604537.4715957112650.82517564172516164131124DRYL
2023-05-17 20:00:03FORECAST2023237-4860.60243.68252.14290.958360.03937010.03937011.031.0693701FF28.602454.602144441.7205826473640.1781797758480.82517564172516164131124DRYL
2023-05-17 16:00:07FORECAST2023237-4850.93636.21243.57493.69260080.110236280.210236281.011.22023628FF18.936428.936144442.801486502541.4872229085260.51589885630278163132127DRYL
2023-05-17 12:00:04FORECAST2023237-4852.12435.56443.84491.46452960.094488240.204488241.011.21448824FF20.124431.124144441.9212489382840.4201191543840.55957772114386163132127DRYL
2023-05-17 08:00:04FORECAST2023237-4849.9134.2542.0892.60400160.086614220.176614220.981.15661422FF17.91420.91144442.3720391571540.9654210219040.47800244970452162132126DRYL
2023-05-17 04:00:11FORECAST2023237-4849.6433.72841.68492.9648231453730.086614220.196614221.041.23661422FF17.64415.64144442.5145131709341.1382834561960.46804874249747162132126DRYL
2023-05-17 00:00:04FORECAST2023237-4849.13636.17642.656107.85421360.232283590.252283591.131.38228359FF17.136409.136144448.2813102128848.3490281845880.44952658952464162132126DRYL
2023-05-16 20:00:07FORECAST2023237-4849.80234.28642.044111.912667765740.181102460.241102461.251.49110246FF17.802413.802144449.8157281823850.340078143880.47401897026617162132126DRYL
2023-05-16 16:00:07FORECAST2023237-4843.39432.01837.706112.93885680.263779670.263779671.191.45377967FF11.394404.394144450.2012102187450.8452100120810.25503833614949162132126DRYL
2023-05-16 12:00:07FORECAST2023237-4845.89632.37839.137110.975558491780.468504190.488504191.31.78850419FF13.896420.896144449.462829647449.8793885414140.33470525360941162132126DRYL
2023-05-16 08:00:04FORECAST2023237-4849.24432.6340.937110.754441281260.468504190.488504191.461.94850419FF17.244423.244144449.379438318649.7707686142620.45348776831869162132126DRYL
2023-05-16 04:00:21FORECAST2023237-4848.59629.94839.272110.290331021120.531496350.531496351.181.71149635FF16.596432.596144449.2042530932549.542885769750.42980379553173162133129DRYL
2023-05-16 00:00:05FORECAST2023237-4837.79635.92436.8695.8205216000.780.78FF5.796393.796144443.6375199970742.509578567450.11949027218638161121122DRYL
2023-05-15 20:00:07FORECAST2023237-4836.28434.91635.699.2940224001.171.17FF4.284405.284144444.9925440805744.1850996397690.093784372208487161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 16:00:04FORECAST2023237-4840.92833.00836.96899.0640616001.191.19FF8.928415.928144444.9032046804644.0739184745030.18748679316022161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-15 12:00:05FORECAST2023237-4831.49627.57229.53499.70854718241600.221.161.38FF-0.504384.496144445.153454536944.3856042251080.038983868747356161122124DRYL
2023-05-15 08:00:06FORECAST2023237-4826.52821.50624.017100.5240833234800.111.031.14FF-5.472375.528144445.4695356826144.7804167230310.013034006171602161122124DRYL
2023-05-15 04:00:18FORECAST2023237-4834.19631.78432.9999.6883139483650.15748040.16748040.891.0574804FF2.196390.196144445.145604321444.3758147563260.065311274513159161122124DRYL