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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 27, 2023

[ Friday, May 26, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 28, 2023 ]

DAY 239 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/28/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.703
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 472

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 84 in
SWE DAY: 146
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.98 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -46

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-05-28 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023239-4654.8299443.1648.9949784.0193295238100.040.720.76FF22.82994471.82994146440.14698795563 36.9808548199560.7028266050205916 4131124DRYL
2023-05-28 00:00:01FORECAST2023239-4551.3538.71445.03284.37315280.023622060.063622060.720.78362206FF19.35468.35147440.8864850855437.1989827735770.57318293978391163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 12:00:02FORECAST2023239-4549.42437.90443.66485.5515520.015748040.055748040.720.77574804FF17.424466.424147441.3557449413237.7586689638460.49674829443266162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 08:00:01FORECAST2023239-4549.83837.45443.64685.55233920.015748040.055748040.720.77574804FF17.838466.838147441.3560579493737.7590431776590.51326497611467163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-27 04:00:11FORECAST2023239-4549.47837.43643.45785.0731350250.015748040.055748040.720.77574804FF17.478466.478147441.1654000035937.5313236428640.4989029332306162131123DRYL
2023-05-27 00:00:03FORECAST2023239-4650.55838.1244.33982.61671280.015748040.105748040.720.82574804FF18.558463.558146439.5839674167436.3169823875540.54191896519123163132127DRYL
2023-05-26 20:00:02FORECAST2023239-4650.21639.244.70886.3965720.019685050.129685050.720.84968505FF18.216463.216146441.0966615016638.1092394743880.52832629217544163132127DRYL
2023-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2023239-4650.59438.53444.56486.37610480.023622060.133622060.720.85362206FF18.594463.594146441.0885096035338.099507331590.54334720344218163132127DRYL
2023-05-26 12:00:03FORECAST2023239-4650.3638.91244.63684.68480560.031496080.141496080.720.86149608FF18.36463.36146440.4134140937937.2963243561650.53405446841863163132127DRYL
2023-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2023239-4651.33239.50645.41984.47137600.070.720.79FF19.332464.332146440.3280157086237.1951133782570.57247671633986163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 04:00:08FORECAST2023239-4651.18839.54245.36584.47201820.011811030.081811030.720.80181103FF19.188465.188146440.3282727379437.1954178686940.56681875298091163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-26 00:00:02FORECAST2023239-4651.02639.88445.45582.72713760.011811030.061811030.720.78181103FF19.026460.026146439.6283655113236.3691962865180.56043719194729163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 20:00:03FORECAST2023239-4651.33239.52445.42886.37730560.011811030.081811030.720.80181103FF19.332462.332146441.0889878828638.1000783031530.57247671633986163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-25 16:00:02FORECAST2023239-4649.29838.91244.10586.4964680.011811030.101811030.720.82181103FF17.298459.298146441.1364430812538.1567442326110.49172128138036162132126DRYL
2023-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2023239-4650.9939.16445.07784.61466640.015748040.215748040.720.93574804FF18.99461.99146440.3853547972437.2630598836140.55901687170607163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2023239-4650.70239.54245.12284.558873600.170.720.89FF18.702460.702146440.3630312304437.2366018959270.5476284866776163132127DRYL
2023-05-25 04:00:15FORECAST2023239-4649.13638.26443.784.8369378285710.007874020.107874020.720.82787402FF17.136459.136146440.474257652237.3684872115260.48526002210676162132126DRYL
2023-05-25 00:00:04FORECAST2023239-4649.15437.79643.47584.804145600.110.720.83FF17.154458.154146440.4611447601537.3529310513830.48597777978069162132126DRYL
2023-05-24 20:00:04FORECAST2023239-4649.4636.98643.22386.96536400.160.720.88FF17.46458.46146441.3230366872438.3798185270910.49818471363845162132126DRYL
2023-05-24 16:00:03FORECAST2023239-4649.1937.95843.57486.696338400.110.720.83FF17.19459.19146441.2160071662238.2518122647790.48741342909259162132126DRYL
2023-05-24 12:00:05FORECAST2023239-4649.74838.26444.00685.55922800.160.720.88FF17.748460.748146440.7628088295437.7113256545670.5096753502772163132127DRYL
2023-05-24 08:00:04FORECAST2023239-4647.82236.89642.35985.837404800.230.720.95FF15.822457.822146440.8737978935437.8434626555010.43314233925513162132126DRYL
2023-05-24 04:00:11FORECAST2023239-4648.99237.63443.31386.33528363478300.10.720.82FF16.992455.992146441.0722496420838.080097776280.47951987486148162132126DRYL
2023-05-24 00:00:02FORECAST2023239-4650.50437.97644.2484.412966400.040.720.76FF18.504466.504146440.304636534337.1674204895340.53977559834961163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-23 20:00:04FORECAST2023239-4649.5537.47243.51185.96144800.130.720.85FF17.55468.55146440.9232643032337.9024022563930.5017758238781163132127DRYL
2023-05-23 16:00:05FORECAST2023239-4647.04836.541.77486.225947200.160.720.88FF15.048466.048146441.0286902465938.0281165588870.40292102414496162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 12:00:05FORECAST2023239-4649.26238.28243.77285.740835200.160.730.89FF17.262461.262146440.8352767172537.797584811360.49028519849329162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 08:00:05FORECAST2023239-4648.36237.5842.97186.197312800.150.780.93FF16.362460.362146441.0172803654538.0145044658660.45447228854415162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 04:00:14FORECAST2023239-4647.6637.8542.75585.97582468333300.130.830.96FF15.66461.66146440.9289964828237.9092340994050.42677826350593162132126DRYL
2023-05-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023239-4650.43240.92845.6885.49036800.090.490.58FF18.432474.432146440.7353224397237.678624905970.5369159878081163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-22 20:00:02FORECAST2023239-4650.30640.56845.43785.74325600.170.470.64FF18.306475.306146440.8362424788837.7987347929440.53190716473511163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 16:00:06FORECAST2023239-4650.68440.65845.67186.399190400.150.470.62FF18.684468.684146441.097704355838.110484543640.54691531024028163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 12:00:06FORECAST2023239-4651.7143.5247.61585.49617360.19685050.31685050.470.7868505FF19.71474.71146440.7376400081737.6813817821930.58725524256427163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023239-4651.78244.81648.29985.3284971484550.208661530.318661530.460.77866153FF19.782470.782146440.6706905881937.6017677652620.59005690583703163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 04:00:08FORECAST2023239-4650.91842.02646.47285.2046990.181102460.291102460.460.75110246FF18.918473.918146440.6212424828237.5430003387550.55617397086567163132127DRYL
2023-05-22 00:00:04FORECAST2023239-4657.6545.46451.55783.30854480.007874020.077874020.460.53787402FF25.65487.65146439.8619244922636.6442568423770.7923658692795164131124DRYL
2023-05-21 20:00:06FORECAST2023239-4658.24446.14852.19685.49564240.031496080.131496080.460.59149608FF26.244485.244146440.7374279570337.681129532910.8089661363114164132128DRYL
2023-05-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023239-4658.56846.74252.65585.19492017925600.080.470.55FF26.568488.568146440.6173359123437.5383587626480.8176682575735164131124DRYL
2023-05-21 12:00:05FORECAST2023239-4640.65831.38836.02386.80957760.015748040.015748040.460.47574804FF8.658462.658146441.2610673214438.3056868654990.18807863285567161131122.5DRYL
2023-05-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023239-4642.90830.09236.587.32519360.015748040.015748040.460.47574804FF10.908462.908146441.4660775162138.5511106869360.25466229290667162131123DRYL
2023-05-21 04:00:19FORECAST2023239-4641.25231.35236.30287.7590457558970.165354420.165354420.460.62535442FF9.252461.252146441.6383703208738.7577619485490.20452613079639161132125DRYL
2023-05-21 00:00:06FORECAST2023239-4643.68231.42437.55396.60089120.062992160.062992160.50.56299216FF11.682456.682146445.1086250670842.9978898622870.28012650756162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 20:00:04FORECAST2023239-4643.57430.61437.094102.37281920.062992160.062992160.50.56299216FF11.574456.574146447.3323129015345.7946699909860.27650063495574162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023239-4639.05627.7733.413103.263069302910.110236280.110236280.50.61023628FF7.056447.056146447.6723972145946.2280257785680.14793414599544161132125DRYL
2023-05-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023239-4647.46232.3639.91199.342296000.50.5FF15.462460.462146446.1688415922644.3234371274350.4190259157225162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 08:00:06FORECAST2023239-4647.1232.50439.812100.9894136000.490.49FF15.12442.12146446.8023099703645.1223032790330.40571089073346162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 04:00:14FORECAST2023239-4649.47833.58441.531101.151462389070.051181130.051181130.580.63118113FF17.478440.478146446.8644895749645.2009966102530.4989029332306162131123DRYL
2023-05-20 00:00:10FORECAST2023239-4651.74637.79644.77185.57829920.074803190.074803190.540.61480319FF19.746462.746146440.7704205039737.7203829243990.58865663923896163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 20:00:05FORECAST2023239-4650.34237.70644.02491.41891040.074803190.074803190.530.60480319FF18.342456.342146443.0842562807140.5062799245770.53333880755766163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-19 16:00:07FORECAST2023239-4644.92434.39439.65991.58432080.035433090.035433090.550.58543309FF12.924454.924146443.1492872792140.5855264884710.32339177043823162131123DRYL
2023-05-19 12:00:06FORECAST2023239-4653.70841.28847.49887.28168240.173228440.173228440.540.71322844FF21.708466.708146441.4487877264838.5303928862080.66287711762084163132127DRYL
2023-05-19 08:00:05FORECAST2023239-4653.13240.40646.76987.7074789765760.185039470.185039470.560.74503947FF21.132463.132146441.6179018916338.733192845840.64159168637979163132127DRYL
2023-05-19 04:00:20FORECAST2023239-4650.84639.2945.06887.73591110.169291430.169291430.560.72929143FF18.846460.846146441.6291878011438.7467391600860.55332817651096163132127DRYL
2023-05-19 00:00:06FORECAST2023239-4649.67639.244.43885.6101650402240.248031630.308031630.590.89803163FF17.676450.676146440.7831379371237.7355171857450.5068030713061163132127DRYL
2023-05-18 20:00:05FORECAST2023239-4650.03639.48844.76290.85545280.232283590.292283590.570.86228359FF18.036450.036146442.8625280990440.2364755185910.52115796219342163132127DRYL
2023-05-18 16:00:06FORECAST2023239-4653.45640.49646.97691.05048160.114173290.114173290.610.72417329FF21.456455.456146442.9393104806440.3298375388340.65362393369001163132127DRYL
2023-05-18 12:00:05FORECAST2023239-4654.69833.45844.07888.1169939967820.208661530.308661530.731.03866153FF22.698471.698146441.7803770373238.9283588312940.69824176625143163132127DRYL
2023-05-18 08:00:06FORECAST2023239-4653.09637.00445.0587.404860.173228440.213228440.610.82322844FF21.096467.096146441.4977291334138.5890472052240.64024579143358163132127DRYL
2023-05-18 04:00:14FORECAST2023239-4655.05839.88447.47182.54353143157900.090.650.74FF23.058501.058146439.5545367904136.2823837234520.7106755916885164141124.5DRYL
2023-05-18 00:00:03FORECAST2023239-4653.22239.88446.55381.278377600.090.650.74FF21.222491.222146439.0448766564235.6848552682260.64494870918615163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-17 20:00:04FORECAST2023239-4653.22239.88446.55386.966960800.090.650.74FF21.222490.222146441.3236717420738.3805784605050.64494870918615163131123.5DRYL
2023-05-17 16:00:08FORECAST2023239-4646.54434.46640.50591.0567600.220.730.95FF14.544452.544146442.9417816401240.3328435047770.38353759616325162132126DRYL
2023-05-17 12:00:05FORECAST2023239-4637.59829.1233.35989.247774400.190.740.93FF5.598449.598146442.228137710339.4678770677010.11676354923547161132125DRYL
2023-05-17 08:00:05FORECAST2023239-4637.59829.1233.35990.574895200.180.690.87FF5.598439.598146442.7520064937640.1022165877620.11676354923547161132125DRYL
2023-05-17 04:00:11FORECAST2023239-4641.01838.6639.83990.80602554537300.180.770.95FF9.018434.018146442.843062662640.2128184607320.19794729553611161132125DRYL