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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 27, 2023

[ Sunday, March 26, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 28, 2023 ]

DAY 178 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/28/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.235
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -14

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.48 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 162 in
SWE DAY: 85
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 70.31 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -107

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-28 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023178-10730.214.3499222.27496161.7680491666700.315.485.79TF-1.8-13.885434.63921225119 70.3107374572130.2351866958666317 1112123WETL
2023-03-28 00:00:03FORECAST2023178-10628.0412.00220.02116500.315.355.66TF-3.96-5.9686436.5881106417872.0370382558930.16764918606062161112123WETL
2023-03-27 12:00:03FORECAST2023178-10627.5913.08220.33616500.315.355.66TF-4.41-6.4186436.5881106417872.0370382558930.15532708383399161112123WETL
2023-03-27 08:00:01FORECAST2023178-10628.14813.51420.83116500.315.355.66TF-3.852-5.85286436.5881106417872.0370382558930.17069747507591161112123WETL
2023-03-27 04:00:12FORECAST2023178-10627.93213.58620.759164.6765079166700.315.355.66TF-4.068-6.06886436.4555110500471.8739694207040.16463609425147161112123WETL
2023-03-27 00:00:03FORECAST2023178-10728.3112.99220.651169.3625346998700.295.485.77TF-3.69-19.6985437.7583311353774.1398605470740.17533581814722171112123WETL
2023-03-26 20:00:01FORECAST2023178-10728.77812.84820.81316900.275.485.75TF-3.222-19.22285437.6107986629173.9562249740320.1891780268226171112123WETL
2023-03-26 16:00:02FORECAST2023178-10728.45412.8320.64216900.275.485.75TF-3.546-19.54685437.6107986629173.9562249740320.17952506229662171112123WETL
2023-03-26 12:00:04FORECAST2023178-10729.53414.12621.83169.2587955917800.275.485.75TF-2.466-18.46685437.716128672674.087304750220.21291078613272171112123WETL
2023-03-26 08:00:05FORECAST2023178-10728.68814.59421.641169.2362437873900.265.485.74TF-3.312-18.31285437.7069528240674.0758805755690.18646518570152171112123WETL
2023-03-26 04:00:08FORECAST2023178-10728.45413.89221.173169.1510290878100.295.485.77TF-3.546-19.54685437.6722760333174.0327158942350.17952506229662171112123WETL
2023-03-26 00:00:04FORECAST2023178-10728.00413.7320.867165.4827867897300.115.485.59TF-3.996-24.99685436.1724040281472.1790249393520.16664090977121171112123WETL
2023-03-25 20:00:05FORECAST2023178-10729.51615.2622.388165.4385323008500.155.485.63TF-2.484-22.48485436.1542237892572.1567146405110.21232630408371171112123WETL
2023-03-25 16:00:04FORECAST2023178-10729.7515.2622.505165.4545700551400.145.485.62TF-2.25-22.2585436.1608125141572.1647997094310.21999733033672171112123WETL
2023-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2023178-10728.20214.03621.119165.597196666100.135.485.61TF-3.798-25.79885436.2193954149672.2367090120970.17223480719501171112123WETL
2023-03-25 08:00:04FORECAST2023178-10728.59814.97221.785165.4490089536800.15.485.58TF-3.402-22.40285436.1585279000172.1619961877550.18377651793884171112123WETL
2023-03-25 04:00:12FORECAST2023178-10728.47214.16221.317165.5268961425400.135.485.61TF-3.528-22.52885436.190522610172.2012633344440.18005309566071171112123WETL
2023-03-25 00:00:05FORECAST2023178-10728.41814.34221.38163.1897797188600.235.285.51TF-3.582-23.58285435.2277156571.0247150444670.17847191220176171112123WETL
2023-03-24 20:00:06FORECAST2023178-10729.0314.37821.704156.6709025654200.155.365.51TF-2.97-21.9785432.5117732644867.7620098875150.19690206015779171112123WETL
2023-03-24 16:00:03FORECAST2023178-10728.41814.61221.515157.1565448937900.235.365.59TF-3.582-23.58285432.7156590785768.0040979022260.17847191220176171112123WETL
2023-03-24 12:00:04FORECAST2023178-10728.07615.49421.785160.6458507775100.275.365.63TF-3.924-24.92485434.173192476869.7481218902230.16866137323769171112123WETL
2023-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2023178-10729.96615.06222.514161.1833182414700.375.345.71TF-2.034-22.03485434.396554472270.0174780824920.22721706837308171112123WETL
2023-03-24 04:00:14FORECAST2023178-10729.28214.82822.055161.2029664136300.255.365.61TF-2.718-24.71885434.4047141299670.0273285418150.20481360032313171112123WETL
2023-03-24 00:00:08FORECAST2023178-10728.9414.61221.776160.5463596185900.195.455.64TF-3.06-21.0685434.1318122491169.6982820512160.19412186549618171112123WETL
2023-03-23 20:00:04FORECAST2023178-10728.36414.93621.65154.9757013599400.225.645.86TF-3.636-22.63685431.7981074558466.9182145488650.17689948356322171112123WETL
2023-03-23 16:00:04FORECAST2023178-10727.84215.20621.524154.593794636670.023622060.203622065.565.76362206TF-4.158-25.15885431.6369032900366.7283867848280.16215209099756171112123WETL
2023-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2023178-10726.94215.63821.29157.5568375015600.195.55.69TF-5.058-26.05885432.8835237857668.2037590142140.13865722920274171112123WETL
2023-03-23 08:00:05FORECAST2023178-10727.53614.2720.903157.2835008370200.265.45.66TF-4.464-22.46485432.7689171709768.0674103460990.15388954756081171112123WETL
2023-03-23 04:00:16FORECAST2023178-10729.55214.93622.244159.5194129836600.495.556.04TF-2.448-18.44885433.7040744055769.1842193577980.21349620426608171112123WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023178-10725.95215.42220.687161.826561119140.055118140.435118145.395.82511814TF-6.048-29.04885434.6634743251670.340095294140.11561404648192171112123WETL
2023-03-22 20:00:05FORECAST2023178-10727.87816.53822.208161.678795803740.055118140.375118145.455.82511814TF-4.122-28.12285434.602196256770.2659597444450.16314275616298171112123WETL
2023-03-22 16:00:05FORECAST2023178-10727.89615.04421.47162.8418007311400.295.726.01TF-4.104-31.10485435.0838714862770.8498411019010.16363955689455171112123WETL
2023-03-22 12:00:05FORECAST2023178-10728.1317.76222.946165.743118131760.311023790.531023795.926.45102379TF-3.87-31.8785436.2793096947572.3102931651810.17018698412127171113124.5WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023178-10728.86817.11422.991165.434782442030.263779670.653779675.796.44377967TT-3.132-27.13285436.1526832113972.1548242585860.19191498216702171113124.5WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:18FORECAST2023178-10727.73416.89822.316167.096374065530.374015950.584015956.076.65401595TT-4.266-32.26685436.8338899893772.9933590861630.15920359011459171113124.5WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:06FORECAST2023178-10729.49817.7823.639165.59278127800.355.76.05TF-2.502-27.50285436.2175821429472.2344826694130.21174275897922171112123WETL
2023-03-21 20:00:05FORECAST2023178-10730.12816.9723.549164.3937144235300.275.575.84TF-1.872-23.87285435.7244067176471.6303536853010.23271822076361171112123WETL
2023-03-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023178-10727.98618.21223.099164.7034947690400.185.695.87TF-4.014-29.01485435.8519631084471.7863415259050.16613823856807171112123WETL
2023-03-21 12:00:06FORECAST2023178-10729.98416.95223.468165.493615617890.452756150.472756155.475.94275615TF-2.016-37.01685436.1768523206472.1844843393730.22782467119134171112123WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:06FORECAST2023178-10730.57816.71823.648164.460330141540.385826980.405826985.285.68582698TF-1.422-34.42285435.7518451429571.6638923119940.24838004873188171112123WETL
2023-03-21 04:00:15FORECAST2023178-10731.04617.09624.071163.782792535160.385826980.405826985.245.64582698TF-0.954-28.95485435.4725567511171.3229114171210.26524508610815172112124WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:06FORECAST2023178-10729.04819.20224.125167.567688203710.385826980.485826984.985.46582698TF-2.952-27.95285437.026592966873.2315358669910.19746097194238171112123WETL
2023-03-20 20:00:08FORECAST2023178-10729.1219.74224.431164.761642468250.385826980.485826985.225.70582698TF-2.88-25.8885435.8758950511771.8156283809490.19970617462997171112123WETL
2023-03-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023178-10727.30219.423.351164.467340255010.374015950.454015955.185.63401595TF-4.698-31.69885435.7547322767371.6674218210890.14776198132028171112123WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023178-10729.04817.74423.396165.815168669010.015748040.085748045.575.65574804TF-2.952-34.95285436.3088849266372.3466313458950.19746097194238171111121.5WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023178-10729.04817.74423.396165.815168669010.015748040.085748045.575.65574804TF-2.952-34.95285436.3088849266372.3466313458950.19746097194238171111121.5WETL
2023-03-20 04:00:16FORECAST2023178-10731.69420.06625.88168.222696910150.326771830.496771835.15.59677183TF-0.306-23.30685437.2940190886373.5627792337710.28951812205815172113126WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:05FORECAST2023178-10729.13819.77824.458169.904243839850.027559070.297559075.165.45755907TF-2.862-27.86285437.9785251361574.4144101313510.20026986097473171112123WETL
2023-03-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023178-10730.3821.09225.736169.842190603110.027559070.237559075.195.42755907TF-1.62-27.6285437.9533170909674.3829507566280.24142056870161171112123WETL
2023-03-19 16:00:05FORECAST2023178-10730.79420.22825.511170.670281153680.03937010.21937015.415.6293701TF-1.206-31.20685438.2893873855874.8029729717720.25609230663774172112124WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:06FORECAST2023178-10726.72618.71622.721169.875279995580.251968640.441968645.025.46196864TF-5.274-37.27485437.9667595740174.3997259113910.13338118108781171112123WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:06FORECAST2023178-10726.07817.90621.992169.095674522670.224409570.434409574.95.33440957TF-5.922-37.92285437.649746336174.0046790613780.11838607212401171112123WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:15FORECAST2023178-10729.51619.61624.566168.324374464680.181102460.511102464.85.31110246TF-2.484-28.48485437.3354919923873.6142231208210.21232630408371171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:08FORECAST2023178-10730.32623.19826.762176.455395548250.59055150.76055154.985.7405515TF-1.674-32.67485440.6175887341477.7493509055980.23954105129771171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 20:00:06FORECAST2023178-10731.3723.19827.284172.695713853070.232283590.282283595.075.35228359TF-0.63-27.6385439.1084114111175.8321405675290.27725182961033172112124WETL
2023-03-18 16:00:06FORECAST2023178-10731.69420.06625.88174.854984826820.326771830.496771835.15.59677183TF-0.306-24.30685439.9769276573876.9321590096830.28951812205815172113126WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:07FORECAST2023178-10725.39416.80821.101185.762315118150.755905921.605905925.116.71590592TT-6.606-31.60685444.2920754334382.5327245211630.10389085968768171115127.5WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:08FORECAST2023178-10725.4318.46421.947177.627097131350.338582860.9185828655.91858286TF-6.57-28.5785441.084984523478.3486453891170.10462023314866171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:14FORECAST2023178-10732.66620.24626.456181.099996977580.66929171.39929175.016.4092917TT0.666-23.33485442.4621925246680.1299017289110.32776209584856172114128WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:08FORECAST2023178-10723.41423.41423.414181.790417762030.082677211.082677213.985.06267721TF-8.586-53.58685442.734540083380.4848969994220.069229410465836171114126WETL
2023-03-17 20:00:08FORECAST2023178-10723.37823.37823.378181.530453432430.082677211.082677214.025.10267721TF-8.622-49.62285442.6320490378280.3511965655610.068693694419405171114126WETL
2023-03-17 16:00:05FORECAST2023178-10721.32621.32621.326180.426282429480.027559071.057559074.055.10755907TF-10.674-44.67485442.1959741995379.7837757301050.043100193089699171114126WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:09FORECAST2023178-10716.26816.26816.268181.328037628570.011811030.881811034.375.25181103TF-15.732-55.73285442.552199647680.2471219103090.011174899860569171113124.5WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023178-10729.46229.46229.462169.775176949810.019685050.099685053.924.01968505TF-2.538-30.53885437.9260895004174.3489793358690.21057848299986171112123WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:18FORECAST2023178-10729.60629.60629.606170.353671219710.015748040.085748043.944.02574804TF-2.394-27.39485438.1609786240174.642331293820.21525806643641171111121.5WETL