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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 26, 2023

[ Saturday, March 25, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, March 27, 2023 ]

DAY 177 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/23/2023 12:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.95°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.091
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -28

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.84 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 158 in
SWE DAY: 84
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 68.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -108

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2023177-10825.73614.16219.949157.5568375015600.845.266.1TF-6.264-28.26484432.2552682466268.1047730583240.091360026565163171113124.5WETL
2023-03-23 08:00:05FORECAST2023177-10825.59214.64820.12157.283500837020.059055150.859055155.216.06905515TF-6.408-25.40884432.1402252981967.96852748740.088494697976774171113124.5WETL
2023-03-23 04:00:15FORECAST2023177-10826.11416.01621.065159.519412983660.090551231.220551235.236.45055123TT-5.886-22.88684433.0789428906769.0844987455050.099206647023679171114126WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:05FORECAST2023177-10824.45815.7120.084161.457686205950.106299270.916299275.266.17629927TF-7.542-29.54284433.888398028670.0546168173060.068220291663255171113124.5WETL
2023-03-22 20:00:05FORECAST2023177-10825.75415.20620.48161.319296940880.082677210.862677215.326.18267721TF-6.246-31.24684433.8307363844569.9852693848850.09172295787197171113124.5WETL
2023-03-22 16:00:04FORECAST2023177-10825.73614.21619.976162.841800731140.070866181.060866185.366.42086618TT-6.264-34.26484434.4639931750570.7488990014680.091360026565163171114126WETL
2023-03-22 12:00:05FORECAST2023177-10826.38413.31619.85163.927330745590.023622061.233622065.326.55362206TT-5.616-34.61684434.9140058068971.2942920757940.1051046782535171114126WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023177-10826.34814.25220.3163.947675281850.035433091.385433095.26.58543309TT-5.652-30.65284434.9224279104371.3045209838510.1043039765497171114126WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:17FORECAST2023177-10825.17813.51419.346164.966441573370.051181131.401181135.296.69118113TT-6.822-34.82284435.3436143145271.8170869151580.080629054701911171114126WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:06FORECAST2023177-10826.56416.08821.326165.59278127801.355.116.46TT-5.436-32.43684435.6020201279872.1325500433070.10917472912601171114126WETL
2023-03-21 20:00:05FORECAST2023177-10827.57215.15221.362164.3937144235301.185.076.25TT-4.428-29.42884435.1069670708271.5288504883280.13405606063582171114126WETL
2023-03-21 16:00:04FORECAST2023177-10827.39216.35821.875164.7034947690401.125.166.28TT-4.608-31.60884435.2350090980371.684727044280.12934944624007171114126WETL
2023-03-21 12:00:06FORECAST2023177-10824.33214.91819.625162.6502665374700.815.095.9TF-7.668-41.66884434.3844627281570.652748642470.06620851243976171113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:05FORECAST2023177-10825.5215.24220.381161.9688114108900.675.045.71TF-6.48-40.4884434.1011892474870.3108536544670.087087305255633171113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 04:00:15FORECAST2023177-10826.40214.91820.66161.4445756285900.655.025.67TF-5.598-34.59884433.882936209270.0480465087790.10550668781768171113124.5WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:06FORECAST2023177-10826.81616.12421.47164.504885840.066929170.826929174.665.48692917TF-5.184-32.18484435.1529293286571.5847829621510.11506062104946171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 20:00:08FORECAST2023177-10828.56216.8822.721161.785417777390.066929170.816929174.915.72692917TF-3.438-30.43884434.0248707394970.2188950383680.16202583729111171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023177-10828.07615.36821.722161.689128773170.035433090.845433094.825.66543309TF-3.924-33.92484433.9847862304270.1706219864050.1478530911917171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:06FORECAST2023177-10826.8713.11819.994165.7042329502401.084.976.05TF-5.13-39.1384435.6479581138472.1887107355920.11635061543926171114126WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023177-10826.8713.11819.994165.7042329502401.084.976.05TF-5.13-39.1384435.6479581138472.1887107355920.11635061543926171114126WETL
2023-03-20 04:00:16FORECAST2023177-10828.6719.1323.9165.023447645830.090551230.760551234.925.68055123TF-3.33-30.3384435.3671500313571.8457880899150.16529140313486171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:05FORECAST2023177-10826.72614.19820.462169.682712885640.173228441.233228444.615.84322844TF-5.274-32.27484437.279313424674.1987401906570.11293322121657171114126WETL
2023-03-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023177-10829.46213.15421.308169.618060994250.125984321.245984324.565.80598432TF-2.538-32.53884437.2529348035674.1659949654240.19052393147914171114126WETL
2023-03-19 16:00:04FORECAST2023177-10828.99413.51421.254170.386457854840.090551231.290551234.716.00055123TF-3.006-37.00684437.5661684101574.5553495125210.17534102001841171114126WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:06FORECAST2023177-10826.83415.58421.209167.613215258380.110236280.700236284.925.62023628TF-5.166-39.16684436.4327839830773.1519021675670.11548948783343171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:06FORECAST2023177-10825.55613.20819.382167.026924748260.102362260.682362264.845.52236226TF-6.444-39.44484436.1921514462472.8558336553950.087788904930353171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:14FORECAST2023177-10826.63620.06623.351167.002498700870.307086780.627086784.915.53708678TF-5.364-33.36484436.1821184307472.8435036665710.11083395961519171113124.5WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:07FORECAST2023177-10827.69817.92422.811171.046015436130.114173290.654173294.915.56417329TF-4.302-38.30284437.834547004474.8898546853850.13741967889469171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 20:00:06FORECAST2023177-10829.58819.3124.449170.6877901580.007874020.597874024.935.52787402TF-2.412-34.41284437.688838416774.708140606170.19474533169221171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 16:00:06FORECAST2023177-10828.6719.1323.9171.65573556250.090551230.760551234.925.68055123TF-3.33-31.3384438.0822467756375.1993303071440.16529140313486171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:06FORECAST2023177-10826.90618.39222.649177.271077612410.649606651.459606654.916.36960665TT-5.094-32.09484440.3455433714378.0605289952770.11721627430374171114126WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:07FORECAST2023177-10827.96820.19224.08174.092010431950.374015951.154015954.845.99401595TF-4.032-29.03284439.0681674614776.4382599900390.14481956252244171114126WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:14FORECAST2023177-10834.6119.05826.834175.695486043040.535433361.295433364.856.14543336TT2.61-31.3984439.713746645777.2557204367210.40287470945752172114128WETL
2023-03-18 00:00:07FORECAST2023177-10827.0517.34822.199180.804300023330.846457151.346457154.045.38645715TF-4.95-51.9584441.7531719637879.8708730399980.12072435883826171114126WETL
2023-03-17 20:00:08FORECAST2023177-10827.0517.29422.172180.542621898570.850394161.370394164.065.43039416TF-4.95-47.9584441.6493525339379.736532066280.12072435883826171114126WETL
2023-03-17 16:00:05FORECAST2023177-10827.46420.98424.224180.090378576880.740157881.500157883.995.49015788TF-4.536-40.53684441.4697645954879.5044570362490.13121820623696171115127.5WETL
2023-03-17 12:00:08FORECAST2023177-10824.31416.23220.273181.159400184210.62992161.18992164.465.6499216TF-7.686-46.68684441.8939457883980.0532421640580.065924892872499171114126WETL
2023-03-17 08:00:06FORECAST2023177-10833.99818.60826.303169.584602927310.055118140.335118144.074.40511814TF1.998-35.00284437.2392818751774.1490500010240.37417912512028172112124WETL
2023-03-17 04:00:18FORECAST2023177-10833.63819.29226.465170.188118606640.035433090.305433094.114.41543309TF1.638-32.36284437.4853748119874.4548128571720.35760828411231172112124WETL
2023-03-17 00:00:08FORECAST2023177-10821.1121.1121.11176.145090538300.434.454.88TF-10.89-38.8984439.8942915118977.4852198056410.028688458930619171112123WETL
2023-03-16 20:00:19FORECAST2023177-10820.60620.60620.606174.5023350405600.364.114.47TF-11.394-46.39484439.2336196555176.6472922582040.024857097275377171112123WETL
2023-03-16 16:00:07FORECAST2023177-10828.54428.54428.544177.1771527877100.514.424.93TF-3.456-26.45684440.3079512696678.012509155750.16148567924011171113124.5WETL
2023-03-16 12:00:05FORECAST2023177-10825.0725.0725.07178.0878062756700.464.565.02TF-6.93-42.9384440.6720498584978.4783186463030.07866640923398171112123WETL
2023-03-16 08:00:08FORECAST2023177-10825.0725.0725.07176.8663112932200.464.484.94TF-6.93-40.9384440.1834773219277.853627926150.07866640923398171112123WETL
2023-03-16 04:00:11FORECAST2023177-10826.94226.94226.942174.2561558746100.753.674.42TF-5.058-46.05884439.1343753230276.5218681561850.11808647135593171113124.5WETL