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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 28, 2023

[ Monday, March 27, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 29, 2023 ]

DAY 179 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/23/2023 12:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.25°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.131
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -20

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.21 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.77 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 159 in
SWE DAY: 86
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 68.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -106

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2023179-10627.7720.24624.008158.76449315750.212598540.212598545.565.77259854TF-4.23-20.2386434.0128830755168.905835405310.13105178240473171112123WETL
2023-03-23 08:00:05FORECAST2023179-10628.52620.78624.656158.429864830740.208661530.268661535.475.73866153TF-3.474-15.47486433.8735270304968.7385242410760.15051280566396171112123WETL
2023-03-23 04:00:16FORECAST2023179-10628.9421.6525.295160.642220638260.204724520.294724525.826.11472452TF-3.06-11.0686434.7926698007969.8460599940370.16194505328558171112123WETL
2023-03-23 00:00:06FORECAST2023179-10629.60619.68824.647162.624670623410.129921330.299921335.535.82992133TF-2.394-21.39486435.6119198303570.841244982040.18148873533829171112123WETL
2023-03-22 20:00:05FORECAST2023179-10630.9220.17425.547162.286005903850.110236280.250236285.565.81023628TF-1.08-19.0886435.4722582021370.6710534655530.22415435020433171112123WETL
2023-03-22 16:00:05FORECAST2023179-10630.5619.52625.043162.8418007311400.075.815.88TF-1.44-22.4486435.7013987297770.9504003502330.21193300950785171111121.5WETL
2023-03-22 12:00:06FORECAST2023179-10632.3621.43426.897167.031352981860.208661530.538661535.996.52866153TT0.36-21.6486437.4182778436873.0625667672260.27683146458916172113126WETL
2023-03-22 08:00:05FORECAST2023179-10631.83821.50626.672166.42607414790.161417410.461417416.016.47141741TF-0.162-17.16286437.1713621654872.7567135350890.25705973918944172112124WETL
2023-03-22 04:00:18FORECAST2023179-10629.24620.73224.989168.723014987540.251968640.671968646.16.77196864TT-2.754-24.75486438.1063598155473.9186259132930.17074835072829171113124.5WETL
2023-03-22 00:00:06FORECAST2023179-10635.18621.8328.508165.503434078005.925.92TF3.186-14.81486436.7942519667272.2909486860220.39487485014644172111122WETL
2023-03-21 20:00:06FORECAST2023179-10635.13221.1128.121164.30023442353005.715.71TF3.132-10.86886436.3011391967471.6843794492770.39248120676291172111122WETL
2023-03-21 16:00:05FORECAST2023179-10634.6122.128.355164.65478676904005.745.74TF2.61-16.3986436.4466036349971.863022457590.36956451659278172111122WETL
2023-03-21 12:00:06FORECAST2023179-10632.37820.96626.672167.826459326770.377952960.827952965.366.18795296TF0.378-26.62286437.7420548786673.4646991687110.27752629065858172113126WETL
2023-03-21 08:00:06FORECAST2023179-10632.37821.14626.762166.47763960340.322834820.712834825.175.88283482TF0.378-23.62286437.1924124222872.7827608725790.27752629065858172113126WETL
2023-03-21 04:00:15FORECAST2023179-10631.53220.98426.258164.142643535150.062992160.452992165.135.58299216TF-0.468-19.46886436.2364413185371.6050026843910.24582012088498171112123WETL
2023-03-21 00:00:06FORECAST2023179-10629.96619.2224.593168.102233287980.074803190.534803194.885.41480319TF-2.034-20.03486437.8542007698973.6042690039420.19264135306257171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 20:00:08FORECAST2023179-10630.36218.78824.575165.215840092410.066929170.526929175.125.64692917TF-1.638-17.63886436.6765230399272.1458786026740.20538050055171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 16:00:04FORECAST2023179-10626.40218.17622.289165.980171604840.177165450.587165455.095.67716545TF-5.598-27.59886436.9892189947472.5315455582130.10039850930643171113124.5WETL
2023-03-20 12:00:07FORECAST2023179-10629.73219.34624.539166.075458948950.027559070.047559075.515.55755907TF-2.268-27.26886437.0281594950172.5796521617480.18534543376995171111121.5WETL
2023-03-20 08:00:05FORECAST2023179-10629.73219.34624.539166.075458948950.027559070.047559075.515.55755907TF-2.268-27.26886437.0281594950172.5796521617480.18534543376995171111121.5WETL
2023-03-20 04:00:17FORECAST2023179-10626.65426.65426.654168.461942715370.023622060.443622065.055.49362206TF-5.346-18.34686438.0003617451773.7863918496260.10561341655629171112123WETL
2023-03-20 00:00:05FORECAST2023179-10629.06620.17424.62172.412157342770.251968640.451968645.135.58196864TF-2.934-20.93486439.5967001268375.7918154296290.1655335865099171112123WETL
2023-03-19 20:00:06FORECAST2023179-10630.5621.2925.925172.093257586140.232283590.392283595.145.53228359TF-1.44-19.4486439.4684216558575.6295522889960.21193300950785171112123WETL
2023-03-19 16:00:05FORECAST2023179-10629.06619.72424.395171.945880259840.133858340.263858345.375.63385834TF-2.934-23.93486439.4091035290875.5545851004930.1655335865099171112123WETL
2023-03-19 12:00:06FORECAST2023179-10628.09416.80822.451170.349242902930.055118140.415118144.975.38511814TF-3.906-30.90686438.7650451210774.7432932486440.13916904368074171112123WETL
2023-03-19 08:00:07FORECAST2023179-10626.94215.72821.335169.47996814880.035433090.355433094.885.23543309TF-5.058-33.05886438.4132936608874.3022710456570.11180910946758171112123WETL
2023-03-19 04:00:15FORECAST2023179-10633.65620.33626.996168.676187832140.051181130.541181134.695.23118113TF1.656-16.34486438.0873526738873.8949045865030.32890602636022172113126WETL
2023-03-19 00:00:08FORECAST2023179-10624.92624.92624.926176.907837472150.03937010.73937014.915.6493701TF-7.074-30.07486441.3940881237478.0860736029640.073569068508034171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 20:00:06FORECAST2023179-10624.96224.96224.962172.830418153140.011811030.251811034.985.23181103TF-7.038-25.03886439.7647894723276.0047324535290.074150876502151171112123WETL
2023-03-18 16:00:07FORECAST2023179-10626.65426.65426.654175.094230632040.023622060.443622065.055.49362206TF-5.346-19.34686440.6714709229277.1590321627360.10561341655629171112123WETL
2023-03-18 12:00:07FORECAST2023179-10618.93218.93218.932185.7623151181501.415.186.59TT-13.068-35.06886444.8746779010382.6409501043380.016041983530352171114126WETL
2023-03-18 08:00:08FORECAST2023179-10618.96818.96818.968177.6270971313500.715.085.79TF-13.032-32.03286441.6797508105678.4542919981780.016210148772627171113124.5WETL
2023-03-18 04:00:14FORECAST2023179-10620.67820.67820.678181.0999969775801.215.076.28TT-11.322-24.32286443.0517353522880.2366679332110.02612582052713171114126WETL