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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 7, 2022

[ Monday, June 6, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 8, 2022 ]

DAY 250 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/08/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.755
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 265

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.75 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 134 in
SWE DAY: 157
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 62.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -35

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-08 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022250-3559.4600833.1800846.32008134.289358260870.0199999999999821.042.753.79TF27.46008265.46008157464.74089092747 62.4097560002350.7553039596137916 41241214DRYL
2022-06-08 00:00:01FORECAST2022250-3443.0443.0443.04134.9396480.0111.0312.753.781TF11.04249.04158465.4648639797262.8096649017910.22365221989664161124128DRYL
2022-06-07 12:00:01FORECAST2022250-3456.0141.1648.585134.784705333330.05431.07432.753.8243TF24.01262.01158465.412733295362.7305181155880.650381154566541631241212DRYL
2022-06-07 08:00:02FORECAST2022250-3452.6142.747.655134.5700840.04571.06572.753.8157TF20.61258.61158465.340489737462.6209087925630.534216684281311631241212DRYL
2022-06-07 04:00:05FORECAST2022250-3454.4137.0445.725134.535924666670.04011.06012.753.8101TF22.41260.41158465.328987751462.6034656413380.59675190669251631241212DRYL
2022-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2022250-3553.4236.9345.175135.323974666670.04491.06492.753.8149TF21.42258.42157465.0903637730462.9378766049340.562557850845491631241212DRYL
2022-06-06 20:00:01FORECAST2022250-3554.7536.2245.485135.338133333330.04811.08812.753.8381TF22.75265.75157465.0951399218862.9451080594330.608340422313371631241212DRYL
2022-06-06 16:00:01FORECAST2022250-3553.6335.3344.48135.370277333330.07881.11882.753.8688TF21.63264.63157465.1059824329862.9615258313450.569859397814451631241212DRYL
2022-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2022250-3555.0236.645.81134.8593080.10081.14082.753.8908TF23.02266.02157464.9335222190162.7006130724580.617475627080721631241212DRYL
2022-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2022250-3554.8736.2445.555134.8616040.10951.15952.753.9095TF22.87264.87157464.9342976559762.7017851364980.61240822139281631241212DRYL
2022-06-06 04:00:07FORECAST2022250-3555.3336.9546.14135.122979173330.08191.14192.753.8919TF23.33264.33157465.0225433509762.8352314403410.627883890535561631241212DRYL
2022-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2022250-3555.3137.0346.17136.730677333330.05710.12712.752.8771FF23.31258.31157465.5640491446963.6568877816030.6272151089109163122126DRYL
2022-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2022250-3554.9436.8845.91136.784360.04920.67922.753.4292TF22.94259.94157465.5820924472463.6843485428570.61477545170947163123129DRYL
2022-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2022250-3554.5337.0245.775136.927313333330.06190.68192.753.4319TF22.53257.53157465.6301285520263.7574825096830.60085225023446163123129DRYL
2022-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2022250-3554.4935.4744.98136.468660.06390.67392.753.4239TF22.49261.49157465.4759470760463.5228787596980.59948668053841163123129DRYL
2022-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2022250-3553.9136.9145.41136.152960.05930.80932.753.5593TF21.91264.91157465.3697165550663.3614644033330.57955733853053163123129DRYL
2022-06-05 04:00:05FORECAST2022250-3554.5736.3945.48135.872105333330.09691.20692.753.9569TF22.57260.57157465.2751395834563.2179127744640.602216587159021631241212DRYL
2022-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2022250-3554.4436.7145.575136.929810666670.10081.39082.293.6808TF22.44257.44157465.6309675671463.7587602295050.597778009142551631241212DRYL
2022-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2022250-3556.2136.8746.54137.763077333330.04621.55622.84.3562TF24.21264.21157465.9106185768664.1852805774260.656902854101561631251215WETL
2022-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2022250-3555.8637.1746.515138.297778020380.00311.43312.84.2331TF23.86263.86157466.0897569267164.4591777410210.645460474754491631241212WETL
2022-06-04 12:00:04FORECAST2022250-3556.5637.246.88137.367293272060.00551.41552.84.2155TF24.56264.56157465.7778640542563.9826444511730.668203219849361631241212WETL
2022-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2022250-3555.3236.645.96137.517940152730.00241.24242.673.9124TF23.32260.32157465.8284100037364.0597634083340.627549547781071631241212DRYL
2022-06-04 04:00:07FORECAST2022250-3556.8236.7646.79137.461213091290.00441.26442.723.9844TF24.82260.82157465.8093788683664.0307222885450.676500567591551631241212DRYL
2022-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2022250-3556.0334.8745.45138.989679177760.0041.4642.413.874TF24.03252.03157466.3212006299564.8138340693460.651035362970961631241212DRYL
2022-06-03 20:00:03FORECAST2022250-3556.134.4145.255139.96006619370.00411.86412.614.4741TF24.1260.1157466.6451144678465.3116811098850.653321549945071631251215WETL
2022-06-03 16:00:03FORECAST2022250-3556.2436.7546.495139.569402703370.00461.95462.654.6046TF24.24261.24157466.5148075387865.1111930404650.657877150261331631251215WETL
2022-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2022250-3556.3836.6846.53138.79247631550.00481.87482.614.4848TF24.38262.38157466.2552769226364.7127244792630.662409899640511631251215WETL
2022-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2022250-3552.7737.144.935139.403501633090.00621.67622.854.5262TF20.77255.77157466.4594316343265.0260781396040.539833353650481631251215WETL
2022-06-03 04:00:06FORECAST2022250-3555.8437.2846.56138.615131857630.00561.71562.884.5956TF23.84261.84157466.1959635510464.6218149591220.644802525448131631251215WETL
2022-06-03 00:00:04FORECAST2022250-3554.1137.8345.97140.341986425370.01161.37162.483.8516TF22.11246.11157466.7723801256765.5077630353320.586455352048231631241212DRYL
2022-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2022250-3553.2236.3644.79141.524604377270.01341.47342.744.2134TF21.22253.22157467.1656767761766.1154375843860.555584096950651631241212WETL
2022-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2022250-3553.1538.2445.695141.692173581840.01811.51812.784.2981TF21.15254.15157467.2213088343566.2016027924940.553139098427391631251215WETL
2022-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2022250-3554.1836.1345.155140.567128933290.0091.3592.774.129TF22.18253.18157466.8473455877165.6233910193920.588863483017891631241212WETL
2022-06-02 08:00:04FORECAST2022250-3554.0936.1345.11140.674314622090.0091.2892.834.119TF22.09246.09157466.8830200326265.6784488517820.585766712801721631241212WETL
2022-06-02 04:00:07FORECAST2022250-3549.2135.5242.365139.548412928880.00891.27892.974.2489TF17.21241.21157466.5078026783265.1004234826970.415039476368491621241210WETL
2022-06-02 00:00:04FORECAST2022250-3555.4436.6446.04139.927381373550.01651.41652.74.1165TF23.44244.44157466.63421730865.2949040872050.631555250677351631241212WETL
2022-06-01 20:00:04FORECAST2022250-3554.5936.4145.5141.156486765150.01581.52582.824.3458TF22.59249.59157467.0433805689665.9262027680350.602898288358811631251215WETL
2022-06-01 16:00:04FORECAST2022250-3554.4336.4445.435141.967500193990.01581.36582.84.1658TF22.43249.43157467.3126643629766.3432107686050.597436049459321631241212WETL
2022-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2022250-3545.8736.541.185140.735265721730.03681.18682.683.8668TF13.87245.87157466.9033019602665.709760267730.305103416932951621241210DRYL
2022-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2022250-3546.8936.7341.81140.358992534660.03651.47652.634.1065TF14.89241.89157466.7780441287565.516496011210.337377124729831621241210WETL
2022-06-01 04:00:08FORECAST2022250-3546.936.7341.815139.408780397180.03651.25652.693.9465TF14.9243.9157466.4611939856465.028786156150.33770004361311621241210DRYL
2022-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2022250-3555.7137.9146.81138.200854684680.10760.95762.693.6476TF23.71242.71157466.0573031914364.4095176330910.64051541034017163123129DRYL
2022-05-31 20:00:03FORECAST2022250-3557.437.0447.22139.758189411660.00030.78032.783.5603TF25.4248.4157466.5777940321165.2080677136120.69469233300522163123129DRYL
2022-05-31 16:00:03FORECAST2022250-3557.4337.0447.235140.057081662410.00030.82032.733.5503TF25.43252.43157466.6774542188865.3614823155410.69562085171657163123129DRYL
2022-05-31 12:00:04FORECAST2022250-3543.5635.8839.72139.3482314394200.662.693.35FF11.56237.56157466.4409778850364.9977253391510.23762896189308161123126DRYL
2022-05-31 08:00:04FORECAST2022250-3538.7336.7237.725138.823800.862.643.5TF6.73236.73157466.2657504443264.7287832865320.12692165789748161123126DRYL
2022-05-31 04:00:06FORECAST2022250-3537.7736.7237.245139.4477639744900.862.713.57TF5.77236.77157466.4742081866465.0487852833980.11009619730826161123126DRYL