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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 8, 2022

[ Tuesday, June 7, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 9, 2022 ]

DAY 251 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/09/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.96°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.563
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 272

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 131 in
SWE DAY: 158
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.28 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -34

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-09 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022251-3453.4799439.9599646.71995131.4285429166700.023.773.79TF21.47994272.47994158464.27849776771 61.0194464691480.5625799628576516 3121123DRYL
2022-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2022251-3341.8741.8741.87132.9460440.00040.02043.773.7904TF9.87260.87159465.2973927266861.8594476465270.18017754545744161121122DRYL
2022-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2022251-3347.4541.1644.305133.090510666670.00340.02343.773.7934TF15.45266.45159465.3460417083161.933142327670.34483219843213162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-08 08:00:01FORECAST2022251-3348.3439.8744.105132.904206666670.01190.03193.773.8019TF16.34267.34159465.2833007196661.8381079573940.37557473641038162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-08 04:00:05FORECAST2022251-3345.5540.843.175133.081826260870.00990.02993.773.7999TF13.55264.55159465.3431177490561.9287119479710.28272288804244162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-08 00:00:02FORECAST2022251-3448.3540.2344.29133.4647960.0170.0273.773.797TF16.35251.35158464.9678151055362.0568345896250.37592511962982162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-07 20:00:02FORECAST2022251-3447.6841.6244.65134.4916920.03580.08583.773.8558TF15.68263.68158465.314092432462.5808796026780.35268884188229162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-07 16:00:01FORECAST2022251-3448.0340.3344.18134.558221333330.02620.07623.773.8462TF16.03264.03158465.3364955036462.6148511564570.36476504493062162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2022251-3447.8840.3344.105133.330462666670.03550.08553.773.8555TF15.88263.88158464.9224500188361.9883253651310.35957227322986162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2022251-3447.8440.4544.145133.0821120.0580.1083.773.878TF15.84260.84158464.8385398954161.8616946282780.35819185389486162122125DRYL
2022-06-07 04:00:06FORECAST2022251-3448.3541.1344.74132.987983333330.04270.08273.773.8527TF16.35262.35158464.8067228515761.8137087118060.37592511962982162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2022251-3448.4541.3644.905133.758758666670.04150.08153.773.8515TF16.45260.45158465.0670338921962.2067891502080.37943453311339162121122.5DRYL
2022-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2022251-3447.9640.8644.41133.8605480.05810.12813.773.8981TF15.96267.96158465.1013727397662.2587246304960.36233859729719162122125DRYL
2022-06-06 16:00:02FORECAST2022251-3447.9840.7244.35133.911770666670.09670.19673.773.9667TF15.98266.98158465.1186494573762.2848619189250.36303130911032162122125DRYL
2022-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2022251-3448.1440.6344.385133.378114666670.08970.20973.773.9797TF16.14268.14158464.9385441262162.0126264514190.36858896371082162122125DRYL
2022-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2022251-3448.0140.3944.2133.365377333330.080.223.773.99TF16.01267.01158464.9342423776962.0061306698880.3640712165352162122125DRYL
2022-06-06 04:00:08FORECAST2022251-3448.3539.5143.93133.684808506660.08580.20583.773.9758TF16.35266.35158465.0420810802762.1690615567550.37592511962982162122125DRYL
2022-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2022251-3448.339.3843.84135.295786666670.14770.27772.753.0277FF16.3260.3158465.5846096038962.9916360162510.37417423175803162122125DRYL
2022-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2022251-3449.8239.1144.465135.288297333330.18260.36263.253.6126TF17.82263.82158465.5820925566262.9878085708760.42839730964098162122125DRYL
2022-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2022251-3450.6440.2545.445135.395225333330.18990.36993.253.6199TF18.64262.64158465.6180248394463.0424573923970.458293146563162122125DRYL
2022-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2022251-3452.3938.3145.35134.910714666670.22990.39993.253.6499TF20.39267.39158465.4551308756462.7948843516990.52267377731883163122126DRYL
2022-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2022251-3447.8740.6744.27134.6251360.21540.40543.373.7754TF15.87266.87158465.3590245135362.6490219639620.35922699582427162122125DRYL
2022-06-05 04:00:06FORECAST2022251-3451.2341.8246.525134.177766666670.16450.39453.734.1245TF19.23266.23158465.2083302010962.4206147811110.47996061983341162122125WETL
2022-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2022251-3453.0139.3446.175135.173862666670.12530.37533.433.8053TF21.01264.01158465.543626907362.9293302889090.54542786353826163122126DRYL
2022-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2022251-3453.1140.5246.815135.979850666670.15290.46294.054.5129TF21.11271.11158465.814310966363.3413604435930.54908592388475163122126WETL
2022-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2022251-3451.3240.6846136.652092687040.1180.3284.024.348TF19.32269.32158466.0396541435763.6852940138640.48327264396908162122125WETL
2022-06-04 12:00:04FORECAST2022251-3451.7841.3746.575135.542137272060.11340.36343.974.3334TF19.78270.78158465.6673774863763.1175516023770.50021390672695163122126WETL
2022-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2022251-3448.1942.2645.225135.81091881940.09930.27933.734.0093TF16.19262.19158465.7576225672563.2549706679960.37033144441328162122125WETL
2022-06-04 04:00:07FORECAST2022251-3453.1843.8448.51135.498461091290.04360.28363.744.0236TF21.18268.18158465.6527071161963.0952252172360.55164410671341163122126WETL
2022-06-04 00:00:03FORECAST2022251-3454.8941.9648.425137.034143177760.04610.31613.63.9161TF22.89260.89158466.1675504447263.8808708524690.61322061982307163122126DRYL
2022-06-03 20:00:03FORECAST2022251-3457.6641.1649.41137.88235019370.01980.35984.134.4898TF25.66271.66158466.4510553624364.3153677637030.70661450706699164122127WETL
2022-06-03 16:00:03FORECAST2022251-3457.6741.2149.44137.462549370040.02230.39234.234.6223TF25.67272.67158466.3108173751764.1002737552170.70693226036927164122127WETL
2022-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2022251-3458.0745.851.935136.444761648840.00460.34464.144.4846TF26.07274.07158465.9701954502763.5791922536740.71950956522799164122127WETL
2022-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2022251-3458.0345.5851.805137.065626966420.00290.22294.314.5329TF26.03268.03158466.1780845124863.8969914317070.71826366024237164122127WETL
2022-06-03 04:00:06FORECAST2022251-3458.0545.5851.815136.276601190960.00290.20294.44.6029TF26.05274.05158465.9138325581563.493153548880.71888694576814164122127WETL
2022-06-03 00:00:04FORECAST2022251-3448.9241.2645.09138.675309092030.01560.34563.523.8656TF16.92248.92158466.7155422896264.721922085070.39605764324194162122125DRYL
2022-06-02 20:00:03FORECAST2022251-3450.2941.1345.71139.889907043940.0420.4123.844.252TF18.29257.29158467.1196330323265.3453220432890.4454937516747162122125WETL
2022-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2022251-3450.3641.1545.755140.051736248510.0420.3523.994.342TF18.36258.36158467.1733787557965.4284428238310.44804952477439162122125WETL
2022-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2022251-3457.7244.0550.885138.2621635999600.183.954.13TF25.72264.72158466.5778064339564.510057005280.7085186296679164122127WETL
2022-06-02 08:00:04FORECAST2022251-3457.8244.0250.92138.3679826220900.23.924.12TF25.82257.82158466.6130985115564.5643131060860.7116793068638164122127WETL
2022-06-02 04:00:07FORECAST2022251-3458.1245.0351.575137.2158955955400.273.984.25TF26.12253.12158466.2283508450163.9739407132320.72106319063907164122127WETL
2022-06-02 00:00:04FORECAST2022251-3451.4841.5546.515138.081178706890.03290.49293.664.1529TF19.48249.48158466.5174235297364.4172757282850.48916339162013162123127.5WETL
2022-06-01 20:00:04FORECAST2022251-3452.8941.8947.39139.546498765150.03070.45073.934.3807TF20.89256.89158467.0055091726665.1689837090820.54103312744545163122126WETL
2022-06-01 16:00:04FORECAST2022251-3452.8541.7247.285140.783256193990.03070.45073.754.2007TF20.85255.85158467.4160512282365.8043536892490.5395670733911163122126WETL
2022-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2022251-3443.738.741.2140.203577721730.01430.15433.733.8843TF11.7243.7158467.2237873302565.5064465803970.22794399989915161122124DRYL
2022-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2022251-3441.0840.140.59139.9796058679900.153.964.11TF9.08237.08158467.1494259848765.3913925308220.16165331557141161122124WETL
2022-06-01 04:00:08FORECAST2022251-3441.0540.140.575139.1729483971800.153.83.95TF9.05239.05158466.8812551943464.9772408367710.16097517195123161122124DRYL