Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 6, 2022

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DAY 249 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/07/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.03°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.01°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.02°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.095 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 247 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.53 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.24 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.77 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 136 in SWE DAY: 156 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.82 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 63.23 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -36 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-07 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	249	-36	38.03	34.01006	36.02003	136.02335	0	1.53	2.24	3.77	T	F	6.03	247.03	156	464.82133986094	63.226555799374	0.094605914202687	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-07 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	249	-35	36.89	36.89	36.89	136.973268	0.0001	1.5301	2.24	3.7701	T	F	4.89	245.89	157	465.64556683233	63.780995018737	0.078543930468667	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	249	-35	42.81	35.17	38.99	136.54003466667	0.0192	1.5492	2.24	3.7892	T	F	10.81	251.81	157	465.4999522755	63.559379621028	0.18792349374145	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	249	-35	41.91	33.72	37.815	136.51510666667	0.0316	1.5616	2.24	3.8016	T	F	9.91	250.91	157	465.49156882038	63.546631169948	0.16702339130092	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-06 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	249	-35	41.07	32.31	36.69	136.83683383999	0.044	1.574	2.24	3.814	T	F	9.07	250.07	157	465.59972707293	63.711192489426	0.14892197417078	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.94	32.56	36.25	138.45136533333	0.0708	0.5808	2.24	2.8208	F	F	7.94	243.94	156	465.63953155806	64.468428897387	0.12670926320081	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-06-05 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.12	33.06	36.09	138.479628	0.1349	1.1449	2.24	3.3849	T	F	7.12	246.12	156	465.64902582245	64.482903874455	0.11210456708309	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-06-05 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	36.61	32.88	34.745	138.57748133333	0.1193	1.1293	2.24	3.3693	T	F	4.61	243.61	156	465.68189238242	64.533023748897	0.074933853169985	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-06-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	41.24	32.72	36.98	138.06530933333	0.1067	1.1167	2.24	3.3567	T	F	9.24	248.24	156	465.5097756839	64.270751177488	0.15247561588021	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-06-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	40.96	33.8	37.38	137.79744266667	0.1293	1.2593	2.24	3.4993	T	F	8.96	251.96	156	465.41966919665	64.133640182064	0.14665220153485	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-06-05 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	37.29	33.61	35.45	137.497236	0.1264	1.6164	2.24	3.8564	T	F	5.29	247.29	156	465.31861111648	63.980022887874	0.083927013165144	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	40.94	33.42	37.18	138.55658133333	0.1504	1.3404	2.24	3.5804	T	F	8.94	243.94	156	465.67487326566	64.522318452523	0.14624201609323	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-06-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.65	33.8	36.725	139.53783066667	0.2558	2.0658	2.24	4.3058	T	F	7.65	248.65	156	466.00401729672	65.025189655536	0.12140023351188	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	38.07	32.05	35.06	140.05662335371	0.2092	1.9892	2.24	4.2292	T	F	6.07	249.07	156	466.17770657854	65.291275466166	0.095210362352049	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	38.1	32.81	35.455	139.14696660539	0.2444	1.9744	2.24	4.2144	T	F	6.1	249.1	156	465.87300663949	64.824815697219	0.095665555039629	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.2	31.65	35.425	139.2460628194	0.1849	1.6749	2.24	3.9149	T	F	7.2	246.2	156	465.90623423053	64.875608759613	0.11347421623517	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-04 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	38.55	32.34	35.445	139.23913709129	0.243	1.743	2.24	3.983	T	F	6.55	244.55	156	465.90391226165	64.872058710768	0.10268596063574	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	37.99	34.86	36.425	140.69352984443	0.2717	1.9917	1.88	3.8717	T	F	5.99	236.99	156	466.39062705733	65.618143607053	0.094004290101898	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	41.43	31.39	36.41	141.6745221937	0.3375	2.3375	2.13	4.4675	T	F	9.43	245.43	156	466.71790375629	66.122036013918	0.15651321779379	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	37.37	34.81	36.09	141.3394000367	0.3665	2.4665	2.13	4.5965	T	F	5.37	246.37	156	466.60619266951	65.94983932532	0.085036005532398	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.62	35.24	37.43	140.56094298217	0.3391	2.3491	2.13	4.4791	T	F	7.62	246.62	156	466.34633110457	65.550080056333	0.12086005733667	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	37.43	33.06	35.245	141.10647763309	0.2056	2.1956	2.32	4.5156	T	F	5.43	244.43	156	466.52849326368	65.830192399909	0.085874906607421	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	40.54	32.94	36.74	140.33335985763	0.1919	2.2419	2.35	4.5919	T	F	8.54	246.54	156	466.27026305736	65.43327261654	0.13819959664655	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.6	34.53	37.065	141.9530677587	0.3247	1.8447	2	3.8447	T	F	7.6	232.6	156	466.81068301693	66.265208516787	0.12050087805968	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-06-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.43	35.01	37.22	143.0254777106	0.3605	1.9705	2.23	4.2005	T	F	7.43	241.43	156	467.16727411323	66.816822550805	0.11747809402037	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	40.17	35.03	37.6	143.27209491518	0.2903	1.9903	2.29	4.2803	T	F	8.17	242.17	156	467.24914045579	66.943763200417	0.13103293085258	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	40.03	32.8	36.415	142.04055959996	0.1683	1.8383	2.28	4.1183	T	F	8.03	240.03	156	466.8398116643	66.310188092335	0.1283891871718	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	36.7	31.77	34.235	142.14304395543	0.1922	1.7622	2.35	4.1122	T	F	4.7	232.7	156	466.87392353635	66.362880634869	0.07608021240904	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	37.55	33.07	35.31	140.79011159554	0.2595	1.8395	2.4	4.2395	T	F	5.55	232.55	156	466.42288467052	65.667729983478	0.087571201992372	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	38.51	34.69	36.6	141.52660004022	0.4373	1.8873	2.21	4.0973	T	F	6.51	229.51	156	466.66860646086	66.046021217913	0.10204721061435	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.07	34.86	36.965	142.73148809849	0.4031	1.8831	2.45	4.3331	T	F	7.07	236.07	156	467.06961513418	66.665541213689	0.11125454146026	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.06	35.24	37.15	143.53900286066	0.4037	1.7537	2.4	4.1537	T	F	7.06	236.06	156	467.33768468963	67.081185259558	0.11108508975537	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	42.03	34.84	38.435	141.77693905506	0.0996	1.4296	2.4	3.8296	T	F	10.03	241.03	156	466.75202487474	66.174673384493	0.16972027929704	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-06-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	42.96	34.89	38.925	141.49496586799	0.1111	1.7011	2.37	4.0711	T	F	10.96	235.96	156	466.6580614901	66.029766482566	0.19155723242934	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	42.96	34.89	38.925	140.54540973051	0.1111	1.4611	2.45	3.9111	T	F	10.96	237.96	156	466.34114062331	65.542106683097	0.19155723242934	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-06-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	43.13	34.69	38.91	139.99430401801	0.0654	1.1454	2.39	3.5354	T	F	11.13	228.13	156	466.15685445984	65.259304403331	0.19572699371837	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-31 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	43.29	33.46	38.375	141.30099207832	0.0636	1.1636	2.4	3.5636	T	F	11.29	232.29	156	466.59338351791	65.930107988262	0.19970127471766	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-31 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	43.32	33.49	38.405	141.10804832908	0.0636	1.1136	2.44	3.5536	T	F	11.32	236.32	156	466.52901737817	65.830999131117	0.20045181012672	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-31 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	41.15	34.22	37.685	139.75342077275	0.0301	0.9201	2.43	3.3501	T	F	9.15	235.15	156	466.07622361588	65.135746591164	0.15058734390117	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-05-31 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	47.02	36.36	41.69	139.07001866667	0.0384	1.2284	2.27	3.4984	T	F	15.02	239.02	156	465.84719973694	64.78537876323	0.30519550285297	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-05-31 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	47	36.36	41.68	139.56037730782	0.0384	1.2284	2.34	3.5684	T	F	15	240	156	466.01157056137	65.036750617356	0.30456993917685	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-05-31 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	43.96	37.83	40.895	139.71484933333	0.0717	1.7517	2.34	4.0917	T	F	11.96	238.96	156	466.06330801588	65.115964859234	0.21686258664553	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-05-30 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	44.58	36.82	40.7	139.91175866667	0.0523	1.6223	2.46	4.0823	T	F	12.58	238.58	156	466.129229612	65.216960280953	0.23347551467561	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-05-30 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	43.38	36.89	40.135	140.06050666667	0.038	1.608	2.39	3.998	T	F	11.38	238.38	156	466.17900583011	65.293267753928	0.20195794377747	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2022-05-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.48	37.07	38.275	139.75841053552	0.0259	0.9159	2.35	3.2659	F	F	7.48	235.48	156	466.07789433949	65.138305698629	0.11836153845746	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-05-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39.25	37.32	38.285	140.3290846737	0.0217	1.0917	2.33	3.4217	T	F	7.25	226.25	156	466.26883368661	65.431078643115	0.11433626433881	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2022-05-30 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	249	-36	39	37.33	38.165	140.26650298341	0.0183	1.0883	2.24	3.3283	T	F	7	234	156	466.24790826328	65.39896361542	0.11007224798848	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L