Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 12, 2022

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DAY 255 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/13/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.90°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.47°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.68°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.086 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 260 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.39 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.03 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.92 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.95 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 122 in SWE DAY: 162 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 463.08 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 56.46 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -30 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-13 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	255	-30	38.89994	30.47	34.68497	121.92724958333	0.38999999999999	1.03	5.92	6.95	T	T	6.89994	259.89994	162	463.0794711478	56.462006255556	0.085926786638832	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-13 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	255	-29	30.71	30.71	30.71	125	0.0159	0.6559	5.92	6.5759	T	T	-1.29	251.71	163	464.63499134493	58.079373918117	0.016198646370089	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	255	-29	39.2	27.2	33.2	124.63861699696	0.4316	1.0716	5.92	6.9916	T	T	7.2	260.2	163	464.51260952467	57.896209228804	0.090447917885977	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	255	-29	41.28	27.07	34.175	124.28320722028	0.372	1.012	5.92	6.932	T	T	9.28	262.28	163	464.39214091293	57.716144680549	0.12670080125482	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-12 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	255	-29	39.59	29.27	34.43	124.25778604264	0.3073	0.9473	5.92	6.8673	T	T	7.59	260.59	163	464.38352006002	57.703268077345	0.09658419123325	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.99	29.47	34.73	124.12806774832	0.3415	0.9015	5.92	6.8215	T	T	7.99	251.99	162	463.83102585695	57.574449001346	0.10318887284483	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.12	29.81	34.465	125.4926128503	0.3006	0.9606	5.92	6.8806	T	T	7.12	262.12	162	464.29489714797	58.265579776158	0.089225663330533	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.62	29.39	34.005	125.65483012887	0.3526	1.0126	5.92	6.9326	T	T	6.62	261.62	162	464.34993537115	58.347812249412	0.081862816579078	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-11 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.12	29.78	34.45	124.75103561319	0.3298	0.9898	5.92	6.9098	T	T	7.12	262.12	162	464.04300058777	57.889844892379	0.089225663330533	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.72	29.82	34.27	124.2882246057	0.281	0.941	5.92	6.861	T	T	6.72	256.72	162	463.88555381181	57.655511903503	0.083297640146738	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.2	29.68	34.44	124.47102512148	0.3185	1.0185	5.92	6.9385	T	T	7.2	257.2	162	463.94776405928	57.748053795276	0.090447917885977	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.26	29.55	34.405	127.98236763163	0.2568	0.5968	5.92	6.5168	T	T	7.26	250.26	162	465.13714677412	59.529353317572	0.091372707926931	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.1	29.38	34.24	128.95644836223	0.2463	1.3563	5.92	7.2763	T	T	7.1	258.1	162	465.46521796777	60.024741345274	0.088922022374241	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.19	28.98	34.085	129.09872625216	0.3775	1.4175	5.92	7.3375	T	T	7.19	258.19	162	465.51306937585	60.097144310158	0.090294462005559	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.31	29.17	34.24	128.18021519002	0.3358	1.3958	5.92	7.3158	T	T	7.31	259.31	162	465.20384770116	59.629929305558	0.092148687653989	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.33	30.19	34.26	127.87623179302	0.1904	1.6004	5.92	7.5204	T	T	6.33	253.33	162	465.10135107157	59.475408176876	0.07780683384848	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-10 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.11	29.97	34.04	127.26072353958	0.1928	1.5628	5.92	7.4828	T	T	6.11	254.11	162	464.89357248658	59.16269240354	0.074832683580463	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.12	29.4	34.26	127.79776807904	0.3094	1.9094	3.68	5.5894	T	F	7.12	255.12	162	465.07488195101	59.435531902963	0.089225663330533	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	40.36	30.67	35.515	128.4502369111	0.3054	2.1554	4.87	7.0254	T	T	8.36	252.36	162	465.29482684064	59.767230741192	0.10958376925903	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.56	32.42	35.99	127.84110456644	0.1689	1.8889	4.87	6.7589	T	T	7.56	251.56	162	465.08950182846	59.457555636007	0.096101614249522	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.43	32.23	35.33	127.53533410149	0.2755	1.9955	4.87	6.8655	T	T	6.43	251.43	162	464.98631356215	59.302184852769	0.079187917286155	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.74	32.42	35.58	127.31023900291	0.2931	2.2131	4.83	7.0431	T	T	6.74	252.74	162	464.91029955689	59.1878413515	0.083586852325268	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.42	31.75	35.585	127.62813477178	0.3126	2.4226	4.84	7.2626	T	T	7.42	252.42	162	465.01763944719	59.349333958622	0.093872938424205	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.52	31.17	35.345	129.0101275897	0.4881	3.2381	4.8	8.0381	T	T	7.52	241.52	162	465.48327358869	60.052056516548	0.095460929959925	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	40.4	30.83	35.615	129.54837515282	0.4834	2.8134	4.91	7.7234	T	T	8.4	251.4	162	465.66418326527	60.32603830888	0.11029173706525	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	40.42	31.07	35.745	130.23311994152	0.5079	2.2279	4.74	6.9679	T	T	8.42	250.42	162	465.89397475215	60.674825893926	0.11064694452231	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-08 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.98	33.42	36.2	128.35762130659	0.1934	1.8334	4.72	6.5534	T	T	6.98	248.98	162	465.26362864818	59.720132653752	0.087116260688014	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.81	32.03	35.42	128.17609730743	0.1956	2.1656	4.74	6.9056	T	T	6.81	245.81	162	465.20245976888	59.62783575099	0.08460501751441	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-08 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	43.54	34.63	39.085	127.63183292754	0.2362	1.7062	4.51	6.2162	T	T	11.54	254.54	162	465.01888764727	59.351212976346	0.17632862043567	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	43.35	32.4	37.875	128.33229802182	0.261	1.921	4.59	6.511	T	T	11.35	238.35	162	465.25509705075	59.707255770887	0.17173713360183	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	39.83	32.68	36.255	129.42011535055	0.2272	1.6672	4.34	6.0072	T	T	7.83	245.83	162	465.62109647639	60.260736015622	0.10050881259191	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.84	33.81	36.325	129.4523	0.221	1.491	4.47	5.961	T	F	6.84	245.84	162	465.63190970375	60.277121664543	0.085044201140541	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	42.6	33.41	38.005	128.39714146614	0.2186	1.5486	4.47	6.0186	T	T	10.6	249.6	162	465.27694217877	59.74022936586	0.1543647897106	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	42.63	32.02	37.325	127.85582939826	0.2664	1.5764	4.11	5.6864	T	F	10.63	248.63	162	465.09446899068	59.465039081348	0.15503661369263	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-07 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	38.9	31.67	35.285	127.60949519153	0.2705	1.7905	3.99	5.7805	T	F	6.9	250.9	162	465.01134804484	59.339863382337	0.085927673517289	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	42.29	32.36	37.325	127.7660844598	0.3294	1.5694	3.92	5.4894	T	F	10.29	255.29	162	465.0641922345	59.419430864261	0.14753513889088	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	42.3	32.36	37.33	127.84680087671	0.3294	1.4994	3.9	5.3994	T	F	10.3	263.3	162	465.09142340026	59.460450596919	0.14775224922704	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	43.05	32.91	37.98	128.13082533333	0.3413	1.5113	4.02	5.5313	T	F	11.05	263.05	162	465.18719989333	59.604819856835	0.16464405618448	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-06 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	43.46	37.59	40.525	126.954016	0.3282	1.5282	4.02	5.5482	T	F	11.46	263.46	162	464.78991516708	59.00694632676	0.1743859990338	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	43.46	37.64	40.55	126.61595733333	0.3282	1.4482	4.08	5.5282	T	F	11.46	267.46	162	464.67556857596	58.835341964656	0.1743859990338	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-06 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	42.52	34.98	38.75	127.36025783999	0.0274	1.1174	3.86	4.9774	T	F	10.52	262.52	162	464.92719453864	59.213247373266	0.15258265776628	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	46.84	37.35	42.095	128.39958666667	0.2035	0.6935	2.9	3.5935	T	F	14.84	266.84	162	465.27776587274	59.74147282325	0.26793602625368	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-06-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	45.42	39.87	42.645	128.55489466667	0.0971	1.0671	3.54	4.6071	T	F	13.42	267.42	162	465.33007268161	59.820458478816	0.2258427002445	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	42.21	39.87	41.04	128.66499333333	0.026	0.936	3.68	4.616	T	F	10.21	271.21	162	465.36714075979	59.876460063411	0.14580593119321	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	40.48	37.68	39.08	128.23186933333	0.4093	1.4993	3.71	5.2093	T	F	8.48	268.48	162	465.22125649652	59.656191374151	0.11171746849532	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	41.7	39.66	40.68	128.483172	0.2549	1.2449	3.68	4.9249	T	F	9.7	268.7	162	465.3059194791	59.783980485051	0.13510227003674	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-05 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	255	-30	41.5	41.27	41.385	128.07505333333	0.1221	1.1121	4.03	5.1421	T	F	9.5	268.5	162	465.16839834959	59.576467427605	0.13105521564571	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L