Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 11, 2022

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DAY 254 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/12/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.22°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.40°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.81°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.372 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 271 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.08 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.99 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.67 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.66 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 124 in SWE DAY: 161 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 463.33 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 57.53 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -31 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-12 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	254	-31	48.21998	39.39998	43.80998	124.1558626087	0.080000000000041	2.99	3.67	6.66	T	T	16.21998	271.21998	161	463.33009537866	57.525147664307	0.37214155117702	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	254	-30	38.84	38.84	38.84	123.962608	0.003	2.913	3.67	6.583	T	T	6.84	261.84	162	463.77466914778	57.490717511896	0.11714404079686	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-11 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	254	-30	49.96	36.92	43.44	124.31672133333	0.0978	3.0078	3.67	6.6778	T	T	17.96	272.96	162	463.89525365262	57.669936976188	0.43402899910031	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-11 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	254	-30	44.62	38.6	41.61	124.159172	0.1033	3.0133	3.67	6.6833	T	T	12.62	267.62	162	463.84161753094	57.590191171782	0.25547424574838	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-11 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	254	-30	44.56	38.73	41.645	124.19722991667	0.1424	3.0524	3.67	6.7224	T	T	12.56	267.56	162	463.85457594079	57.609453416016	0.25370316821698	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.06	38.49	41.275	127.780168	0.3058	2.6858	3.67	6.3558	T	T	12.06	261.06	161	464.5632257085	59.361967027654	0.23919815764565	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	45.13	39.12	42.125	128.77382666667	0.3556	3.4556	3.67	7.1256	T	T	13.13	269.13	161	464.89932913859	59.866865627942	0.27078479130763	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-10 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.9	39.34	42.12	128.716044	0.2874	3.3874	3.67	7.0574	T	T	12.9	268.9	161	464.87980746713	59.83748975265	0.26382377973299	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	45.55	39.4	42.475	127.93830133333	0.3098	3.4098	3.67	7.0798	T	T	13.55	269.55	161	464.61677082533	59.442280430371	0.28372798598801	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-10 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	45.46	38.48	41.97	127.72165733333	0.5189	3.7589	3.67	7.4289	T	T	13.46	265.46	161	464.54340811209	59.332253987351	0.28092968895751	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-10 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.96	38.37	41.665	127.08368739394	0.5266	3.7166	3.67	7.3866	T	T	12.96	265.96	161	464.32713608911	59.008404611272	0.2656308738991	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.1	38.21	41.155	127.29394533333	0.397	1.707	3.67	5.377	T	F	12.1	266.1	161	464.39845232203	59.115111202766	0.24034166090533	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.35	38.65	41.5	128.29651466667	0.3885	3.1485	3.67	6.8185	T	T	12.35	262.35	161	464.73798500058	59.624263708784	0.24755546105861	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.05	38.62	41.335	128.239552	0.546	3.016	3.67	6.686	T	T	12.05	262.05	161	464.7187170375	59.595320078903	0.23891274631654	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.29	38.45	41.37	127.52560533333	0.582	3.022	3.67	6.692	T	T	12.29	263.29	161	464.47698371527	59.23270851169	0.24581368357377	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.12	39.15	41.635	127.19104533333	0.555	3.175	3.67	6.845	T	T	12.12	264.12	161	464.36355499624	59.062885974674	0.24091452561148	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.49	38.88	41.685	127.32307625	0.6456	3.3756	3.67	7.0456	T	T	12.49	263.49	161	464.40833007364	59.129897221101	0.25164507745598	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	45.65	39.27	42.46	128.579872	1.1102	3.9802	3.67	7.6502	T	T	13.65	251.65	161	464.83379090038	59.768269335246	0.28685275646406	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	48.26	39.87	44.065	129.524768	0.8505	3.6705	3.67	7.3405	T	T	16.26	261.26	161	465.1527716356	60.248804830658	0.37353495448089	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	47.33	40.01	43.67	129.56800933333	0.6693	2.8893	3.67	6.5593	T	T	15.33	260.33	161	465.16735085951	60.270807657727	0.34161655360756	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-08 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	47.17	39.01	43.09	128.83870133333	0.5318	2.7918	3.67	6.4618	T	T	15.17	260.17	161	464.92124340344	59.899849222378	0.3362301958637	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.91	38.42	41.665	128.65545866667	0.9535	3.1335	3.68	6.8135	T	T	12.91	256.91	161	464.85933584734	59.806691068922	0.26412452680037	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-08 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	47.94	40.02	43.98	128.40148492754	0.4739	2.4039	3.68	6.0839	T	T	15.94	260.94	161	464.77348451854	59.677605567125	0.36244098759814	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	45.52	40.13	42.825	128.87700533333	0.6301	2.6701	3.68	6.3501	T	T	13.52	244.52	161	464.93418056455	59.919324868267	0.28279374011017	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.73	38.43	41.58	129.98524533333	0.4728	2.1428	3.74	5.8828	T	T	12.73	255.73	161	465.30794368024	60.483167214824	0.2587378972633	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	44.99	38.88	41.935	130.06571466667	0.5545	2.1145	3.73	5.8445	T	T	12.99	256.99	161	465.33504168055	60.524134755624	0.2665367660241	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	45.33	38.88	42.105	128.92755466667	0.472	2.162	3.74	5.902	T	T	13.33	257.33	161	464.95125165577	59.945027915184	0.27691138055317	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	46.27	38.88	42.575	128.29227333333	0.4652	1.7552	3.76	5.5152	T	F	14.27	256.27	161	464.73655044024	59.62210855707	0.30658064264366	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-07 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	46.23	39.34	42.785	127.94793533333	0.3664	1.8764	3.73	5.6064	T	F	14.23	262.23	161	464.62003227402	59.447173843968	0.30528996324752	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	47.77	42.36	45.065	128.51130533333	0.3367	1.5267	3.73	5.2567	T	F	15.77	262.77	161	464.81061415995	59.733418758484	0.35659326997606	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2022-06-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	47.59	42.36	44.975	128.59062666667	0.3631	1.3931	3.78	5.1731	T	F	15.59	270.59	161	464.83742580085	59.773735881852	0.35043810963341	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	46.18	42.58	44.38	128.835588	0.1182	1.4382	3.85	5.2882	T	F	14.18	270.18	161	464.92019182101	59.898266286332	0.30368001037572	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	51.66	43.33	47.495	128.12049333333	0.1329	1.4629	3.86	5.3229	T	F	19.66	269.66	161	464.67843572671	59.534830426668	0.49611166185469	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	51.68	43.33	47.505	127.78576933333	0.1329	1.4329	3.87	5.3029	T	F	19.68	273.68	161	464.56512272885	59.36481161334	0.49684558812446	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	49.01	40.95	44.98	128.25493250666	0.1996	1.1896	3.86	5.0496	T	F	17.01	270.01	161	464.72391986072	59.603134975967	0.39993546487749	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	52.64	42.32	47.48	129.42688266667	0.005	0.575	2.91	3.485	T	F	20.64	269.64	161	465.11976275528	60.199000960076	0.53204086965385	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-06-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	51.42	41.95	46.685	129.67523333333	0.1138	1.1238	3.49	4.6138	T	F	19.42	272.42	161	465.20349553626	60.325371831146	0.48730628334057	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	51.4	41.91	46.655	129.47367733333	0.1138	1.1938	3.5	4.6938	T	F	19.4	279.4	161	465.13554387104	60.222809323423	0.48657272182652	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	49.58	40.8	45.19	128.67942533333	0.7477	1.3677	3.53	4.8977	T	F	17.58	277.58	161	464.86743449561	59.818874327077	0.42031759122195	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	49.15	38.25	43.7	128.88404266667	0.3179	1.1079	3.66	4.7679	T	F	17.15	277.15	161	464.93655728428	59.922903086321	0.40491868638661	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-05 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	47.41	40.8	44.105	128.2806	0.3179	1.1179	4	5.1179	T	F	15.41	277.41	161	464.73260204991	59.616177030524	0.34432195366871	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	53.25	43.91	48.58	128.582976	0.0487	0.8687	3.69	4.5587	T	F	21.25	282.25	161	464.83484001153	59.769847077167	0.55429234002341	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-06-04 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	53.63	45.89	49.76	129.45713333333	0.0657	0.8057	4.39	5.1957	T	F	21.63	295.63	161	465.1299647577	60.214391864967	0.56807244077297	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-06-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	53.29	45.88	49.585	130.48110068704	0.0565	0.7965	4.23	5.0265	T	F	21.29	293.29	161	465.47483462259	60.735668763675	0.55574626758022	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-06-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	48.4	45.76	47.08	129.07955327206	0.1267	0.8867	4.21	5.0967	T	F	16.4	294.4	161	465.00257013052	60.022324022807	0.37842233666666	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	50.09	47.75	48.92	129.49254548606	0.0511	0.5411	3.89	4.4311	T	F	18.09	290.09	161	465.14190646946	60.232409480971	0.43873889562469	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-06-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	254	-31	50.09	49.69	49.89	129.53197709129	0.0293	0.5193	3.9	4.4193	T	F	18.09	296.09	161	465.15520236004	60.252473015994	0.43873889562469	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L