Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 13, 2022

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DAY 256 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/14/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.94°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.39°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.16°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.033 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 247 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.43 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.90 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.11 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.01 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 122 in SWE DAY: 163 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 463.70 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 56.68 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -29 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-06-14 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	256	-29	32.93996	29.39	31.16498	122.23728833333	0.43000000000006	0.90000000000006	6.11	7.0100000000001	T	T	0.93996	246.93996	163	463.69654361988	56.681008101633	0.032670027548486	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-14 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	256	-28	31.6	31.6	31.6	122	0.0085	0.4785	6.11	6.5885	T	T	-0.4	245.6	164	464.12494544443	56.623243344221	0.024041676096671	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-06-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	256	-28	37.26	26.24	31.75	122.10747739681	0.1587	0.6287	6.11	6.7387	T	T	5.26	251.26	164	464.16146005844	56.677584992556	0.078901517471792	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	256	-28	37.26	24.6	30.93	122.0466026359	0.235	0.705	6.11	6.815	T	T	5.26	251.26	164	464.14077955347	56.64680528928	0.078901517471792	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	256	-28	34.14	24.59	29.365	122.37131776273	0.3433	0.8133	6.11	6.9233	T	T	2.14	248.14	164	464.25105552198	56.811013436965	0.042420824101154	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	37.58	22.8	30.19	125.62867067625	0.4553	0.5553	6.11	6.6653	T	T	5.58	243.58	163	464.84762223265	58.398188848105	0.08369266489879	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.99	23.03	29.51	124.97316744585	0.5203	1.0303	6.11	7.1403	T	T	3.99	249.99	163	464.62590840039	58.065771450203	0.061910278876649	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-12 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.85	24.5	30.175	124.76854145833	0.4954	1.0054	6.11	7.1154	T	T	3.85	249.85	163	464.55662118572	57.962052050154	0.060226377301394	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.91	24.78	30.345	125.38618541264	0.441	0.951	6.11	7.061	T	T	3.91	249.91	163	464.765648359	58.275191758565	0.060943621577797	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.94	24.02	29.98	125.20001681002	0.4232	0.8732	6.11	6.9832	T	T	3.94	251.94	163	464.70267846398	58.180783155352	0.061304730697718	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-12 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.88	24.13	30.005	125.08592459303	0.3954	0.7854	6.11	6.8954	T	T	3.88	250.88	163	464.66407305505	58.122935203255	0.060584171916946	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.13	24.43	29.78	124.84170575258	0.3986	0.7386	6.11	6.8486	T	T	3.13	241.13	163	464.5813990578	57.999134319294	0.052124198644909	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.66	24.62	30.14	127.18788714226	0.4364	0.8364	6.11	6.9464	T	T	3.66	251.66	163	465.37352209974	59.189875007815	0.057998492518956	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.44	24.56	30	127.4088951777	0.4346	0.8846	6.11	6.9946	T	T	3.44	251.44	163	465.44789634038	59.30220223551	0.05550006098709	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.53	24.56	30.045	126.63599184772	0.4612	0.8912	6.11	7.0012	T	T	3.53	251.53	163	465.18761434766	58.909494938192	0.056511714610562	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	31.93	24.3	28.115	126.44373597515	0.4692	0.8492	6.11	6.9592	T	T	-0.07	242.93	163	465.1227910932	58.811863393015	0.025966188931928	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.62	24.41	30.015	126.49288558102	0.4619	0.9219	6.11	7.0319	T	T	3.62	246.62	163	465.13936596519	58.836820598263	0.057537794526608	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.92	24.56	30.24	129.83505334242	0.4177	0.9877	5.58	6.5677	T	T	3.92	239.92	163	466.2616148906	60.537101640844	0.061063806682394	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	36.34	24.01	30.175	130.8743729837	0.4543	1.0643	6.3	7.3643	T	T	4.34	248.34	163	466.60866507739	61.067116470766	0.066280226101017	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	36.74	24.15	30.445	131.1942303784	0.5453	1.2153	6.3	7.5153	T	T	4.74	248.74	163	466.71528780037	61.230352988801	0.071561760544453	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	32.6	24.4	28.5	130.27858621071	0.4478	1.0978	6.3	7.3978	T	T	0.6	245.6	163	466.4098317007	60.76321346874	0.030270132835938	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	33.44	27.02	30.23	129.42574627786	0.363	1.073	6.44	7.513	T	T	1.44	240.44	163	466.12468720187	60.328535499636	0.036482288238517	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	36.23	25.05	30.64	129.10923622782	0.428	1.148	6.39	7.538	T	T	4.23	244.23	163	466.0187057509	60.167319167375	0.064881885464399	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.76	24.77	30.265	130.26679761819	0.5451	1.2551	4.51	5.7651	T	F	3.76	244.76	163	466.40589442836	60.757202257431	0.059162879454552	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	32.73	26.65	29.69	130.22291052629	0.4046	1.1046	5.96	7.0646	T	T	0.73	238.73	163	466.39123554084	60.734824136083	0.031170055872833	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	36.72	26.15	31.435	129.07824576903	0.3198	1.0398	5.67	6.7098	T	T	4.72	242.72	163	466.0083242053	60.151537002183	0.071290260882955	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	33.07	27.27	30.17	129.13334913008	0.3443	1.2043	5.64	6.8443	T	T	1.07	238.07	163	466.02678280708	60.179599248196	0.033628455826731	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	31.81	25.17	28.49	129.38813120779	0.4044	1.2544	5.82	7.0744	T	T	-0.19	238.81	163	466.11209648684	60.309373097776	0.025251996816022	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-09 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	32.54	27.29	29.915	129.70044277575	0.4264	1.3864	5.93	7.3164	T	T	0.54	238.54	163	466.21659860452	60.468499268411	0.029862085386062	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-09 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	33.67	26.19	29.93	130.05337082233	0.234	1.834	6.07	7.904	T	T	1.67	229.67	163	466.33459161464	60.648385570538	0.038353798131667	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	33.67	26.23	29.95	130.71406458792	0.2408	1.5708	6.02	7.5908	T	T	1.67	238.67	163	466.55519454964	60.985325834193	0.038353798131667	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2022-06-08 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.3	27.11	31.205	131.14356965957	0.2461	1.4261	5.42	6.8461	T	T	3.3	239.3	163	466.69840609821	61.20449493015	0.053954764165041	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-08 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	39.11	29.69	34.4	128.45129413271	0.151	0.871	5.46	6.331	T	T	7.11	242.11	163	465.79812504017	59.832371965998	0.10963755726775	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	39.27	29.72	34.495	128.00503430526	0.151	1.301	5.39	6.691	T	T	7.27	239.27	163	465.64830267418	59.605326957994	0.11265142690446	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-08 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	40.8	32.01	36.405	127.1981075942	0.1153	0.8253	5.14	5.9653	T	F	8.8	249.8	163	465.37696243555	59.19506893974	0.14446989088901	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-08 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	42.81	31	36.905	127.88575405224	0.0806	0.9706	5.25	6.2206	T	F	10.81	234.81	163	465.60822806331	59.544659338803	0.19469131878467	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	41.5	31.4	36.45	128.94096201721	0.0878	0.7878	4.94	5.7278	T	F	9.5	241.5	163	465.96232546229	60.081630508885	0.16087026609831	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	41.34	31.39	36.365	128.977684	0.0878	0.8578	4.82	5.6778	T	F	9.34	241.34	163	465.97463122143	60.100328737694	0.15701872002684	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	38.79	32.37	35.58	127.97046813281	0.1144	0.8044	4.96	5.7644	T	F	6.79	242.79	163	465.63669071959	59.587745291196	0.10378388211735	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	38.83	32.37	35.6	127.42899206493	0.1144	0.8544	4.58	5.4344	T	F	6.83	241.83	163	465.45465733029	59.312417835525	0.10450297805545	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-07 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	37.64	31.51	34.575	127.33167919153	0.127	0.767	4.77	5.537	T	F	5.64	242.64	163	465.42191614643	59.262954115467	0.084614759850059	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	34.9	26.73	30.815	131.55402948437	0.7288	1.3988	4.45	5.8488	T	F	2.9	243.9	163	466.83512139578	61.414041324438	0.049726215699726	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.71	25.78	30.745	131.43214981124	0.6661	1.3561	4.34	5.6961	T	F	3.71	252.71	163	466.79454078756	61.351810015862	0.058578422282489	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-06-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	33.81	26.85	30.33	129.79579516661	0.4505	0.9105	4.7	5.6105	T	F	1.81	250.81	163	466.24848781365	60.517093221001	0.039530685342368	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-06 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	36.94	28.83	32.885	126.86883198808	0.2484	0.7084	4.72	5.4284	T	F	4.94	253.94	163	465.26607909988	59.027764019077	0.074320403176842	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	36.96	30.75	33.855	126.53915066667	0.2288	0.6888	4.7	5.3888	T	F	4.96	257.96	163	465.1549661911	58.860314350204	0.074600658426653	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-06-06 04:00:09	FORECAST	2022	256	-29	35.07	34.78	34.925	127.29487650666	0.0112	0.2412	4.38	4.6212	T	F	3.07	252.07	163	465.4095316727	59.244248859299	0.051489982999292	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	WET	L