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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 3, 2022

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DAY 64 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/28/2022 11:00:08 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.404
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 119

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 50 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 329.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.33 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 144

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-28 23:00:08FORECAST20236414431.7420.2125.97549.5861703712240.35251.39255.136.5225TT-0.26118.7429329.3355776939116.3304900648360.404455567554451623141212WETL
2022-11-28 19:00:06FORECAST20236414431.7421.226.4752.9088061620040.36661.44665.196.6366TT-0.26118.7429331.5925883572917.5441679821530.404455567554451623141212WETL
2022-11-28 15:00:09FORECAST20236414430.0821.225.6450.8821251294670.38111.22115.216.4311TT-1.92112.0829330.2181645264616.8022019674580.32698541135531623141212WETL
2022-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20236414431.1121.2526.1857.8262165119820.73431.63435.286.9143TT-0.8999.1129334.8981406110519.3658923884350.37441934627511623151215WETL
2022-11-28 07:00:09FORECAST20236414427.5419.8723.70555.8194030280970.73251.52255.226.7425TT-4.4698.5429333.5541170499218.6187916912910.222391937278081613151212.5WETL
2022-11-28 03:00:25FORECAST20236414431.4822.7127.09555.9785986155780.78541.54545.336.8754TT-0.52100.4829333.6609854952318.6778743807160.391980169789021623151215WETL
2022-11-27 23:00:04FORECAST20236414429.3219.824.5651.7061005013110.73751.73754.826.5575TT-2.6897.3229330.77780931217.103230651890.293646551224711623151215WETL
2022-11-27 19:00:04FORECAST20236414428.2318.4723.3552.7896400178830.74651.70654.886.5865TT-3.7797.2329331.5119696954117.500397541840.248784526417321613151212.5WETL
2022-11-27 15:00:04FORECAST20236414429.4221.7625.5951.4515608835850.74651.68654.556.2365TT-2.58100.4229330.6050507932117.0101458993080.297942593474421623151215WETL
2022-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20236414429.9516.5423.24559.2963534497291.03552.09554.356.4455TT-2.0593.9529335.8783970811119.916364149450.321173910725871623151215WETL
2022-11-27 07:00:07FORECAST20236414428.2620.8124.53559.8536090346641.03552.07554.66.6755TT-3.7497.2629336.2490077567220.1257166485640.249968618989451623151215WETL
2022-11-27 03:00:16FORECAST20236414426.9919.2123.163.62876612660.96472.04474.896.9347TT-5.0196.9929338.7459620446221.5539875952670.202548007015061613151212.5WETL
2022-11-26 23:00:05FORECAST20236414430.6520.8425.74572.8598129478231.23713.01715.428.4371TT-1.35108.6529344.7516280758925.1185391350670.352948536272711623151215WETL
2022-11-26 19:00:04FORECAST20236414433.0120.4826.74569.8522618279941.31243.22245.168.3824TT1.01123.0129342.8103767920823.9460801970340.466564704959961623151215WETL
2022-11-26 15:00:05FORECAST20236414433.1123.4328.2766.2709744074071.13143.08145.198.2714TT1.11117.1129340.4793758079722.563900000420.471510512527091623151215WETL
2022-11-26 11:00:14FORECAST20236414427.8324.4626.14548.5299156972010.2050.3955.215.605TF-4.17108.8329328.6140823185515.9476137118320.23328554062838161312125WETL
2022-11-26 07:00:19FORECAST20236414428.0524.5126.2847.9688186320060.15720.34725.235.5772TF-3.95104.0529328.2300260408315.7448065887310.24174303533484161312125WETL
2022-11-26 03:00:38FORECAST20236414427.3425.3826.3650.8594774044350.07730.55735.035.5873TF-4.66106.3429330.2027656266516.7939400972710.21505099973936161313127.5WETL