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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 2, 2022

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DAY 63 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/29/2022 03:00:11 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.331
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 125

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.18 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.37 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 129 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 379.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 143

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-29 03:00:11FORECAST20236314330.7414.7222.73129.012341152690.56852.18854.186.3685TT-1.26124.7430379.2333671808948.9257845432250.330839398546971623151215WETL
2022-11-28 23:00:07FORECAST20236314335.0715.3325.247.7894589160940.66472.40473.776.1747TT3.07137.0730329.1304109251815.7289642509460.532388425879561633151217.5WETL
2022-11-28 19:00:06FORECAST20236314335.0715.425.23550.7073683843720.6742.5243.756.274TT3.07137.0730331.1150304815316.789971828230.532388425879561633151217.5WETL
2022-11-28 15:00:09FORECAST20236314333.7313.7623.74548.3656718722420.46772.30773.746.0477TT1.73131.7330329.5234892434415.9376249549440.468397584131011623151215WETL
2022-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20236314332.8711.422.13552.8509605139840.49772.48773.696.1777TT0.87117.8730332.5636537547117.5763085329760.427652727532781623151215WETL
2022-11-28 07:00:09FORECAST20236314332.8811.4122.14550.2469262573290.49772.39773.616.0077TT0.88120.8830330.8028367996516.6218257463870.428122953564991623151215WETL
2022-11-28 03:00:23FORECAST20236314331.8311.4121.6250.9721136470770.52032.39033.76.0903TT-0.17118.8330331.2943705202816.8867743047970.37943000431051623151215WETL
2022-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20236314331.829.3220.5746.7524218321960.78482.60483.225.8248TT-0.18117.8230328.4215186591815.3545013791240.37897403008761623151215WETL
2022-11-27 19:00:04FORECAST20236314330.1811.4820.8347.2982227264780.80112.75113.095.8411TT-1.82119.1830328.794847074515.5514119082480.30688303180211623151215WETL
2022-11-27 15:00:04FORECAST20236314332.7311.4922.1145.978571102580.80112.51112.985.4911TT0.73120.7330327.8913160085115.0759741870160.421080645648791623151215WETL
2022-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20236314331.5812.822.1950.1506921854970.96962.409635.4096TF-0.42113.5830330.7375410468316.5867166152280.368082489548741623151215WETL
2022-11-27 07:00:07FORECAST20236314329.7714.4722.1250.918097622980.96962.50963.135.6396TT-2.23118.7730331.2577895315616.8670164657410.289844444698911623151215WETL
2022-11-27 03:00:15FORECAST20236314327.1717.0322.154.5775998501391.01212.51213.465.9721TT-4.83120.1730333.7247817737418.2138975997220.193389716659021613151212.5WETL
2022-11-26 23:00:05FORECAST20236314328.9319.1724.0561.0785787676111.53473.09474.117.2047TT-3.07127.9330338.0511536043820.6476840129070.256391869231631623151215WETL
2022-11-26 19:00:04FORECAST20236314334.5718.2526.4157.4553819235561.6493.1993.877.069TT2.57139.5730335.6487478448119.2848269995870.508520593461171633151217.5WETL
2022-11-26 15:00:04FORECAST20236314334.4618.6226.5456.0452644693671.6493.1294.017.139TT2.46134.4630334.707758808518.7587848623710.503262578889411633151217.5WETL
2022-11-26 11:00:13FORECAST20236314326.7415.6421.1946.5989988420610.02721.42723.975.3972TF-5.26130.7430328.3164839410515.2992194549980.179564569412211613141210WETL
2022-11-26 07:00:19FORECAST20236314326.8512.6919.7746.4554687084330.02721.42723.995.4172TF-5.15125.8530328.2181848943315.2475296178980.183040856528571613141210WETL
2022-11-26 03:00:37FORECAST20236314328.4420.9224.6850.0427605933150.17921.36924.145.5092TF-3.56129.4430330.6642894217616.5473538722920.237849370119241613141210WETL
2022-11-25 23:00:04FORECAST20236314323.6713.5718.6253.7405890357180.12851.52854.536.0585TT-8.3398.6730333.1625458396417.9043514580610.0993430296927171613151212.5WETL
2022-11-25 19:00:04FORECAST20236314327.773.7615.76554.8868842957460.04751.78754.376.1575TT-4.23103.7730333.9322317047718.32849976420.21372982770031613151212.5WETL
2022-11-25 15:00:04FORECAST20236314326.475.1215.79553.2578323671770.00541.88544.376.2554TT-5.53108.4730332.8377251530817.7262157716750.171208803102061613151212.5WETL
2022-11-25 11:00:05FORECAST20236314313.116.619.8653.20828232637301.374.515.88TF-18.8983.1130332.804363083517.7079485103960.00528257045041171613141210WETL
2022-11-25 07:00:31FORECAST20236314319.0813.916.4952.98376577589101.374.65.97TF-12.92112.0830332.6531433402117.6252162313520.0331027844653041613141210WETL
2022-11-25 03:00:31FORECAST20236314314.1612.2313.19551.12769733749200.894.745.63TF-17.8487.1630331.3997076040316.9437039481120.0075479974609327161313127.5WETL