Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 4, 2022
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Monday, December 5, 2022 ]
DAY 65
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/05/2022 07:00:17 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.34°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.289
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 45
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.34 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.74 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 65 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.62 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.99 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 145
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-12-05 07:00:17 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 29.03 | 21.65 | 25.34 | 64.932612916667 | 0.23000000000002 | 0.34000000000002 | 6.4 | 6.74 | T | T | -2.97 | 45.03 | 28 | 338.61940459611 | 21.987442724711 | 0.28887046576454 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-05 03:00:25 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 29.03 | 21.65 | 25.34 | 64.932612916667 | 0.23000000000002 | 0.34000000000002 | 6.4 | 6.74 | T | T | -2.97 | 45.03 | 28 | 338.61940459611 | 21.987442724711 | 0.28887046576454 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 31.75 | 22.01 | 26.88 | 67.540316352623 | 0.1853 | 0.2953 | 6.4 | 6.6953 | T | T | -0.25 | 47.75 | 28 | 340.33109192537 | 22.986069613273 | 0.41296619335985 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 07:00:23 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 31.1 | 21.54 | 26.32 | 67.307745711206 | 0.1896 | 0.2996 | 6.4 | 6.6996 | T | T | -0.9 | 47.1 | 28 | 340.17889344169 | 22.896674456093 | 0.38193731252639 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 33.59 | 19.46 | 26.525 | 67.438111981002 | 0.1759 | 0.2859 | 6.4 | 6.6859 | T | T | 1.59 | 49.59 | 28 | 340.26421858789 | 22.946776476258 | 0.50314546178279 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 29.57 | 19.43 | 24.5 | 66.62109607921 | 0.1307 | 0.1707 | 6.4 | 6.5707 | T | F | -2.43 | 53.57 | 28 | 339.72901241766 | 22.633119177172 | 0.31212818991752 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 30.82 | 22.98 | 26.9 | 66.631967229474 | 0.1622 | 0.2022 | 6.4 | 6.6022 | T | F | -1.18 | 54.82 | 28 | 339.73614112286 | 22.637287421966 | 0.3687887491403 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 30.22 | 21.86 | 26.04 | 66.735223066621 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 6.4 | 6.61 | T | F | -1.78 | 54.22 | 28 | 339.80384083512 | 22.676885117026 | 0.3411417949529 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 31.51 | 22.77 | 27.14 | 66.598666915271 | 0.1476 | 0.1876 | 6.4 | 6.5876 | T | F | -0.49 | 55.51 | 28 | 339.71430397781 | 22.624519776971 | 0.40143470909628 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 07:00:20 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 31.46 | 23.27 | 27.365 | 66.501772373491 | 0.2022 | 0.2422 | 6.4 | 6.6422 | T | T | -0.54 | 54.46 | 28 | 339.65075352469 | 22.587377097384 | 0.39904272437299 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 03:00:25 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 27.49 | 21.78 | 24.635 | 66.632885825925 | 0.2117 | 0.2617 | 6.4 | 6.6617 | T | T | -4.51 | 49.49 | 28 | 339.73674347911 | 22.637639639115 | 0.22741645942151 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 31.8 | 23.73 | 27.765 | 69.308186988481 | 0.2118 | 0.4818 | 6.4 | 6.8818 | T | T | -0.2 | 64.8 | 28 | 341.48508426129 | 23.667712073759 | 0.41537842233465 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 32.05 | 23.84 | 27.945 | 68.862157122913 | 0.1239 | 0.3939 | 6.4 | 6.7939 | T | T | 0.049999999999997 | 63.05 | 28 | 341.19442312066 | 23.495383974397 | 0.42748569050094 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 32.28 | 23.65 | 27.965 | 69.038014714842 | 0.1748 | 0.4048 | 6.4 | 6.8048 | T | T | 0.28 | 63.28 | 28 | 341.30906232178 | 23.56330006688 | 0.43868529665889 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 31.67 | 23.93 | 27.8 | 69.232789456628 | 0.1667 | 0.3767 | 6.4 | 6.7767 | T | T | -0.33 | 65.67 | 28 | 341.43597360734 | 23.638564873676 | 0.40911348830167 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 07:00:26 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 32.51 | 24.79 | 28.65 | 68.824140304807 | 0.0791 | 0.4091 | 6.4 | 6.8091 | T | T | 0.51 | 64.51 | 28 | 341.16963373559 | 23.480706739958 | 0.44993421314978 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 32.62 | 24.61 | 28.615 | 68.88431197971 | 0.0598 | 0.4598 | 6.4 | 6.8598 | T | T | 0.62 | 65.62 | 28 | 341.20886839347 | 23.503938140659 | 0.45532895470894 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 23:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 32.52 | 23.78 | 28.15 | 65.628242789778 | 0.1053 | 0.5353 | 6.03 | 6.5653 | T | T | 0.52 | 60.52 | 28 | 339.07712295808 | 22.253035749952 | 0.45042427733363 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 19:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 30.96 | 23.42 | 27.19 | 65.766767314846 | 0.0959 | 0.4059 | 6.03 | 6.4359 | T | F | -1.04 | 55.96 | 28 | 339.16817436176 | 22.305994403851 | 0.37534493492012 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 15:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 32.36 | 22.63 | 27.495 | 64.875464329203 | 0.024 | 0.324 | 6.03 | 6.354 | T | F | 0.36 | 66.36 | 28 | 338.58176536412 | 21.965649241398 | 0.44259282355937 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 35.2 | 21.81 | 28.505 | 65.869743229616 | 0.0232 | 0.3832 | 6.03 | 6.4132 | T | F | 3.2 | 69.2 | 28 | 339.23583910414 | 22.345377616073 | 0.58207894131889 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 35.72 | 21.48 | 28.6 | 66.073416489883 | 0.0023 | 0.4923 | 6.09 | 6.5823 | T | T | 3.72 | 73.72 | 28 | 339.36961924824 | 22.423310196602 | 0.60703324560044 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 03:00:27 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 35.72 | 19 | 27.36 | 66.848960355474 | 0.0026 | 0.4926 | 6.22 | 6.7126 | T | T | 3.72 | 73.72 | 28 | 339.87839216574 | 22.72051716357 | 0.60703324560044 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 23:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 35.29 | 22.01 | 28.65 | 52.253821967569 | 0.0013 | 0.6313 | 5.32 | 5.9513 | T | F | 3.29 | 64.29 | 28 | 330.13359314617 | 17.250742001774 | 0.58642470771736 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 19:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 36.45 | 22.49 | 29.47 | 50.745073902339 | 0.0016 | 0.8916 | 5.34 | 6.2316 | T | F | 4.45 | 71.45 | 28 | 329.10548463273 | 16.700482139353 | 0.64131475833085 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 37.34 | 22.58 | 29.96 | 51.201998190114 | 0.0017 | 0.8817 | 5.31 | 6.1917 | T | F | 5.34 | 73.34 | 28 | 329.41726328043 | 16.866822118277 | 0.68159627306627 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 11:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 35.12 | 20.94 | 28.03 | 54.629258426304 | 0.0013 | 0.9513 | 5.33 | 6.2813 | T | T | 3.12 | 66.12 | 28 | 331.74432668838 | 18.12294655412 | 0.57820758982338 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 33.48 | 23.47 | 28.475 | 56.092954174517 | 0.0013 | 0.9813 | 5.43 | 6.4113 | T | T | 1.48 | 65.48 | 28 | 332.73199972722 | 18.663920813095 | 0.49771238026525 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 03:00:18 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 34.61 | 17.06 | 25.835 | 56.868785288515 | 0.004 | 1.014 | 5.83 | 6.844 | T | T | 2.61 | 77.61 | 28 | 333.25402818679 | 18.951751775488 | 0.55336524574923 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 34.12 | 16.9 | 25.51 | 55.020683845322 | 0.0606 | 0.9906 | 5.91 | 6.9006 | T | T | 2.12 | 77.12 | 28 | 332.00881263162 | 18.267351913665 | 0.52929690413032 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 19:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 35.91 | 22.21 | 29.06 | 54.566766702145 | 0.0027 | 0.7727 | 5.85 | 6.6227 | T | T | 3.91 | 80.91 | 28 | 331.70207671694 | 18.09990983483 | 0.61604831795079 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 38.02 | 22.21 | 30.115 | 52.610479865092 | 0.0027 | 0.6127 | 5.86 | 6.4727 | T | T | 6.02 | 87.02 | 28 | 330.37605585415 | 17.381242834423 | 0.71101819300972 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 36.64 | 24.66 | 30.65 | 56.786101500646 | 0.0439 | 0.7139 | 5.86 | 6.5739 | T | T | 4.64 | 83.64 | 28 | 333.19844224427 | 18.92104056114 | 0.65006618817395 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 10:15:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 36.64 | 24.66 | 30.65 | 56.786101500646 | 0.0439 | 0.7139 | 5.86 | 6.5739 | T | T | 4.64 | 83.64 | 28 | 333.19844224427 | 18.92104056114 | 0.65006618817395 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 35.34 | 23.2 | 29.27 | 129.00595589886 | 0.0439 | 0.8839 | 5.84 | 6.7239 | T | T | 3.34 | 90.34 | 28 | 377.56159611115 | 48.70769461702 | 0.58883449274779 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 03:00:12 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 37.19 | 24.3 | 30.745 | 130.4561005099 | 0.0557 | 0.9157 | 5.8 | 6.7157 | T | T | 5.19 | 94.19 | 28 | 378.37169053207 | 49.360895290151 | 0.67493992552134 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 23:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 37.33 | 24.3 | 30.815 | 49.799010130864 | 0.1625 | 1.1725 | 5.51 | 6.6825 | T | T | 5.33 | 102.33 | 28 | 328.4587941922 | 16.356922819549 | 0.68115430348762 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 19:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 36.49 | 22.04 | 29.265 | 53.719861033339 | 0.1951 | 1.2351 | 5.6 | 6.8351 | T | T | 4.49 | 101.49 | 28 | 331.12883126543 | 17.788194799711 | 0.6431635217588 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 15:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 32.59 | 23 | 27.795 | 52.239453255376 | 0.1951 | 1.0451 | 5.58 | 6.6251 | T | T | 0.59 | 90.59 | 28 | 330.12382042341 | 17.245487885495 | 0.45385680181836 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 27.84 | 20.94 | 24.39 | 60.586679306396 | 0.3096 | 1.5396 | 5.68 | 7.2196 | T | T | -4.16 | 72.84 | 28 | 335.74143606022 | 20.341458716449 | 0.24070414366644 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 07:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 31.39 | 22.89 | 27.14 | 57.16898928871 | 0.1897 | 1.4197 | 5.51 | 6.9297 | T | T | -0.61 | 76.39 | 28 | 333.45574862888 | 19.063328121623 | 0.39570032227071 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 03:00:26 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 32.83 | 22.05 | 27.44 | 58.187982064629 | 0.3117 | 1.6217 | 5.57 | 7.1917 | T | T | 0.83 | 78.83 | 28 | 334.13930926295 | 19.44289213448 | 0.46565008155064 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 27.53 | 19.97 | 23.75 | 52.976311673575 | 0.1075 | 1.6275 | 5.04 | 6.6675 | T | T | -4.47 | 70.53 | 28 | 330.62452706644 | 17.5152679928 | 0.228913859347 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 28.75 | 19.58 | 24.165 | 53.458255377379 | 0.052 | 1.602 | 5.04 | 6.642 | T | T | -3.25 | 71.75 | 28 | 330.95150868811 | 17.692090268978 | 0.27714062209985 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 27.87 | 20.5 | 24.185 | 51.618164847537 | 0.0156 | 1.5656 | 4.69 | 6.2556 | T | T | -4.13 | 73.87 | 28 | 329.70091658459 | 17.018556262647 | 0.24186239265848 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 23.83 | 18.45 | 21.14 | 60.880849934267 | 0.1419 | 2.1519 | 4.44 | 6.5919 | T | T | -8.17 | 63.83 | 28 | 335.93724604451 | 20.452145063767 | 0.11490469533045 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 24.43 | 17.94 | 21.185 | 61.535301430246 | 0.1274 | 2.1374 | 4.67 | 6.8074 | T | T | -7.57 | 67.43 | 28 | 336.37234677606 | 20.698773751664 | 0.12998290677683 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 65 | 145 | 22.77 | 19.6 | 21.185 | 64.380542265506 | 0.0553 | 2.0253 | 4.96 | 6.9853 | T | T | -9.23 | 65.77 | 28 | 338.25557089497 | 21.777077078547 | 0.091380214522415 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |