Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 21, 2022

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DAY 52 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/22/2022 07:00:20 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.68°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.66°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.17°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.709 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 87 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.92 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.92 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 24 in SWE DAY: 41 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.08 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 7.78 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 132 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-22 07:00:20	OBSERVATION	2023	52	132	42.67994	35.65994	39.16994	24.0058575	0	0	9.92	9.92	T	T	10.67994	86.67994	41	324.08168186367	7.7798586731795	0.70870745188568	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-22 03:00:10	OBSERVATION	2023	52	132	42.67994	35.65994	39.16994	24.0058575	0	0	9.92	9.92	T	T	10.67994	86.67994	41	324.08168186367	7.7798586731795	0.70870745188568	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-21 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	52	132	46.3	33.73	40.015	23.529374666667	0.0058	0.0058	9.92	9.9258	T	T	14.3	90.3	41	323.75008813654	7.6176371221309	0.81416120312192	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	M
2022-11-21 07:00:12	FORECAST	2023	52	132	38.41	33.43	35.92	23.891019416667	0.0114	0.0114	9.92	9.9314	T	T	6.41	82.41	41	324.00180049606	7.7407333066863	0.55735896693054	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-21 03:00:08	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.72	33.4	38.06	23.661802083333	0.0254	0.0254	9.92	9.9454	T	T	10.72	86.72	41	323.84228723946	7.6626921068742	0.71001059226121	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-20 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.84	33.25	38.545	24.456066666667	0.0326	0.0326	9.92	9.9526	T	T	11.84	89.84	41	324.39462271348	7.933416519389	0.74529133823239	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-20 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.84	33.06	38.45	24.466836	0.0315	0.0315	9.92	9.9515	T	T	11.84	89.84	41	324.40210410642	7.9370930792266	0.74529133823239	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-20 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.66	33.47	38.565	24.436113333333	0.0412	0.0412	9.92	9.9612	T	T	11.66	89.66	41	324.38076070854	7.9266050318269	0.73977631860847	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-20 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.9	33.08	38.49	24.046490214285	0.0245	0.0245	9.92	9.9445	T	T	11.9	89.9	41	324.10994039838	7.7937065101421	0.74711600207318	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-20 07:00:14	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.63	32.84	38.235	23.405908929101	0.029	0.039	9.92	9.959	T	T	11.63	87.63	41	323.66410042672	7.5756524582072	0.73885121025212	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-20 03:00:14	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.07	32.98	38.025	23.455544639829	0.0314	0.0414	9.92	9.9614	T	T	11.07	88.07	41	323.69867245755	7.5925286616813	0.72127817510781	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-19 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.86	32.84	37.85	23.975441155763	0.0251	0.0351	9.92	9.9551	T	T	10.86	88.86	41	324.06052652382	7.7694940845774	0.71454317215303	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-19 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.65	32.51	37.58	24.043026466629	0.0312	0.0312	9.92	9.9512	T	T	10.65	88.65	41	324.107531605	7.7925259604129	0.7077317329085	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-19 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.8	33.6	38.7	23.79788	0.113	0.123	9.92	10.043	T	T	11.8	89.8	41	323.93699560572	7.7090137489855	0.74407108218359	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-19 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.64	34.44	39.04	23.583094666667	0.1079	0.1179	9.92	10.0379	T	T	11.64	89.64	41	323.78749301105	7.6359110995622	0.7391597671519	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-19 07:00:24	FORECAST	2023	52	132	37.17	32.56	34.865	23.687226416667	0.0847	0.0847	9.92	10.0047	T	T	5.17	82.17	41	323.85998471402	7.6713447852191	0.51059815238437	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-19 03:00:39	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.64	32.82	37.73	23.541688843583	0.0737	0.0737	9.92	9.9937	T	T	10.64	87.64	41	323.75866286595	7.6218257016047	0.70740550346887	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-18 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	52	132	36.25	32.36	34.305	23.781831281635	0.1272	0.1372	9.92	10.0572	T	T	4.25	83.25	41	323.92582762014	7.7035493802264	0.47577403649536	16	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-18 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	52	132	41.81	33.16	37.485	23.638933108836	0.0922	0.0922	9.92	10.0122	T	T	9.81	88.81	41	323.82636753324	7.6549098409954	0.67976005876394	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-18 15:00:08	FORECAST	2023	52	132	41.22	31.51	36.365	23.641697333333	0.078	0.078	9.92	9.998	T	T	9.22	88.22	41	323.82829183315	7.6558504634896	0.65947102124082	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-18 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	52	132	38.02	31.63	34.825	23.586031484906	0.1017	0.1017	9.92	10.0217	T	T	6.02	86.02	41	323.78953775069	7.6369102318711	0.54270688407534	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-18 07:00:36	FORECAST	2023	52	132	39.59	31.68	35.635	23.51826906903	0.1063	0.1063	9.92	10.0263	T	T	7.59	87.59	41	323.74235474699	7.6138598079808	0.60113618030873	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-18 03:00:25	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.85	31.67	37.26	23.447135499058	0.1126	0.1126	9.92	10.0326	T	T	10.85	88.85	41	323.69281566919	7.5896693090672	0.71422053671583	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-17 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.48	32.41	37.445	23.396845333333	0.1264	0.1264	9.92	10.0464	T	T	10.48	84.48	41	323.65778702316	7.5725711839099	0.70216300171578	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-17 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	52	132	35.57	33.28	34.425	23.392253333333	0.159	0.159	9.92	10.079	T	T	3.57	79.57	41	323.6545883311	7.5710101227367	0.4501381531822	16	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-17 15:00:08	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.93	32.74	38.335	23.389764923969	0.122	0.122	9.92	10.042	T	T	11.93	86.93	41	323.6528549411	7.5701641940437	0.74802575091782	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-17 11:00:11	FORECAST	2023	52	132	39.77	31.7	35.735	23.791625610094	0.284	0.284	9.92	10.204	T	T	7.77	75.77	41	323.93264335367	7.7068841735585	0.60771780988928	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-17 07:00:21	FORECAST	2023	52	132	39.77	31.7	35.735	23.744556448877	0.284	0.284	9.92	10.204	T	T	7.77	80.77	41	323.89988704487	7.6908591517217	0.60771780988928	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-17 03:00:39	FORECAST	2023	52	132	41.94	31.78	36.86	23.671290333333	0.2844	0.2844	9.92	10.2044	T	T	9.94	76.94	41	323.84889199323	7.6659211465001	0.68416187483042	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-16 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	52	132	35.66	32.34	34	24.196765333333	0.337	0.347	9.92	10.267	T	T	3.66	77.66	41	324.21442579399	7.8449403786185	0.45352155522717	16	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-16 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	52	132	35.76	32.88	34.32	24.436150666667	0.4009	0.4509	9.92	10.3709	T	T	3.76	72.76	41	324.38078664546	7.9266177758403	0.45728484062245	16	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-16 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.99	32.9	37.945	24.393182666667	0.4376	0.4876	9.92	10.4076	T	T	10.99	78.99	41	324.35093347958	7.9119515684713	0.7187215877456	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-16 11:00:12	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.37	32.99	37.68	23.679454666667	0.2143	0.2143	9.92	10.1343	T	T	10.37	82.37	41	323.85457504358	7.6686997283371	0.69853414396804	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-16 07:00:11	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.34	32.86	37.6	23.822686583333	0.2143	0.2143	9.92	10.1343	T	T	10.34	68.34	41	323.95425712059	7.7174607347205	0.69754101616309	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-16 03:00:33	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.78	32.92	37.85	23.70056125	0.3768	0.3768	9.92	10.2968	T	T	10.78	74.78	41	323.86926642277	7.6758833858454	0.71195725172635	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-15 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.61	32.21	37.91	24.450868604735	0.8661	0.8861	9.92	10.8061	T	T	11.61	77.61	41	324.391011577	7.9316420006263	0.73823353492728	16	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2022-11-15 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.56	32.19	37.875	24.404012248527	0.8661	0.8861	9.92	10.8061	T	T	11.56	77.56	41	324.35845792799	7.9156477801881	0.73668607873449	16	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2022-11-15 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.09	33	38.045	24.190625333333	0.9059	0.9159	9.92	10.8359	T	T	11.09	79.09	41	324.21015746996	7.8428464486169	0.72191555192879	16	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2022-11-15 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.09	32.46	37.275	23.79134	0.2373	0.2573	9.92	10.1773	T	T	10.09	74.09	41	323.93244460408	7.7067869266068	0.68920862491873	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-15 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	52	132	42.2	32.46	37.33	24.0182965	0.2373	0.2573	9.92	10.1773	T	T	10.2	68.2	41	324.09033303319	7.7840977115749	0.69288717210426	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-15 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	52	132	43.53	33.23	38.38	23.795967166667	0.0084	0.0284	9.92	9.9484	T	T	11.53	74.53	41	323.93566452675	7.7083624371908	0.73575537081996	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-14 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	52	132	37.64	32.34	34.99	25.278346332423	0.2519	0.3619	9.92	10.2819	T	T	5.64	80.64	41	324.96526727663	8.214584572227	0.5283742688619	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-14 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	52	132	38.03	32.43	35.23	25.280839622118	0.4196	0.5096	9.92	10.4296	T	T	6.03	82.03	41	324.96699575476	8.2154385021576	0.54308339152431	16	3	4	1	3	2	2	24	WET	L
2022-11-14 15:00:18	FORECAST	2023	52	132	40.05	34.32	37.185	23.684888949072	0.351	0.441	9.92	10.361	T	T	8.05	105.05	41	323.85835768766	7.670549237061	0.61789430561828	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-14 11:00:19	FORECAST	2023	52	132	36.67	31.14	33.905	23.571611432119	0.211	0.411	9.92	10.331	T	T	4.67	91.67	41	323.77949774099	7.6320045104374	0.49166507574029	16	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-14 07:00:11	FORECAST	2023	52	132	36.55	32.6	34.575	22.888940166667	0.1406	0.3406	9.92	10.2606	T	T	4.55	85.55	41	323.30376456007	7.4000805226736	0.48712232325785	16	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-14 03:00:15	FORECAST	2023	52	132	33.63	33.09	33.36	23.099155116265	0.004	0.174	9.92	10.094	T	T	1.63	80.63	41	323.45034497741	7.4714296910426	0.37848253687163	16	2	4	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L