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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 22, 2022

[ Monday, November 21, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 23, 2022 ]

DAY 53 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/23/2022 07:00:29 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.610
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 86

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.49 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.49 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.28 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 40
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 323.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 133

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 32.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-23 07:00:29OBSERVATION20235313339.2799228.1333.7049624.9425354166671.491.491.793.28TF7.2799286.2799240323.69235384652 8.0737079999210.6098502336623516 34142232DRYL
2022-11-23 03:00:07OBSERVATION20235313339.2799228.1333.7049624.9425354166671.491.491.793.28TF7.2799286.2799240323.69235384652 8.0737079999210.6098502336623516 34142232DRYL
2022-11-22 11:00:01FORECAST20235313335.7728.4932.1324.8615269023691.09941.09941.792.8894FF3.7782.7740323.635926630228.04608329649030.468839748606591624142228DRYL
2022-11-22 07:00:21FORECAST20235313336.5128.9232.71524.8269214344731.36821.36821.793.1582TF4.5183.5140323.611818337778.03428518913890.498844742267271624142228DRYL
2022-11-22 03:00:11FORECAST20235313333.8128.9531.3825.1787722737391.3571.3571.793.147TF1.8180.8140323.856840491558.15431763602930.390657282385671624142228DRYL
2022-11-21 23:00:02FORECAST20235313336.6428.932.7725.3814416732931.41111.42111.793.2111TF4.6486.6440323.997876200218.22353319704660.504121392467411634142232DRYL
2022-11-21 19:00:02FORECAST20235313333.5929.1431.36525.8794192336031.51271.52271.793.3127TF1.5983.5940324.34410585048.39383709125080.38209228366721624152235DRYL
2022-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20235313336.229.1332.66525.2639604333541.31591.32591.793.1159TF4.286.240323.916130967078.18340431647730.486264495561061624142228DRYL
2022-11-21 11:00:04FORECAST20235313334.329.1931.74524.6884053277111.23241.24241.793.0324FF2.384.340323.515298298527.98707681410930.409919784365211624142228DRYL
2022-11-21 07:00:13FORECAST20235313336.6629.8433.2525.1546324877111.27261.28261.793.0726FF4.6678.6640323.840037004598.14607711565710.504933143919951634142232DRYL
2022-11-21 03:00:09FORECAST20235313335.5629.9232.7425.023932622041.32341.35341.793.1434TF3.5682.5640323.749040116078.10147416631490.460349561806491624142228DRYL
2022-11-20 23:00:04FORECAST20235313338.3531.9835.16525.2031708131431.05631.08631.792.8763FF6.3588.3540323.87382304758.16264728417180.573116498158271634142232DRYL
2022-11-20 19:00:04FORECAST20235313336.2431.3833.8126.3262461324760.97561.00561.792.7956FF4.2486.2440324.65439934978.54693162527110.487887250109481624142228DRYL
2022-11-20 15:00:02FORECAST20235313336.3129.9733.1426.707512056681.1171.1571.792.947FF4.3186.3140324.918886522928.67777507925370.490727537013641624142228DRYL
2022-11-20 11:00:04FORECAST20235313335.0829.9132.49526.6044647872041.09331.11331.792.9033FF3.0885.0840324.847427077198.64239193488880.441017301656931624142228DRYL
2022-11-20 07:00:16FORECAST20235313335.2130.2732.7425.64268308641.08461.12461.792.9146FF3.2183.2140324.179564541418.31283383662250.44624122406051624142228DRYL
2022-11-20 03:00:15FORECAST20235313337.531.5834.5424.6239225607311.16131.20131.792.9913FF5.585.540323.470354182667.96510895208620.538966864426271634142232DRYL
2022-11-19 23:00:02FORECAST20235313337.6330.6134.1225.7702854917760.96551.00551.792.7955FF5.6386.6340324.268265726518.35648578369530.544214849590781634142232DRYL
2022-11-19 19:00:06FORECAST20235313338.5431.3234.9325.9159304889750.99751.02751.792.8175FF6.5487.5440324.369473861638.40633673734340.580684791241931634142232DRYL
2022-11-19 15:00:07FORECAST20235313336.3930.8533.6225.4523712959250.98971.10971.792.8997FF4.3986.3940324.047218301988.24777011763370.493974146607961624142228DRYL
2022-11-19 11:00:04FORECAST20235313337.6332.435.01524.8384955750261.15651.27651.793.0665FF5.6387.6340323.619881830168.03823100282880.544214849590781634142232DRYL
2022-11-19 07:00:25FORECAST20235313337.0531.0134.0325.6948433976990.91490.99491.792.7849FF5.0579.0540324.215826590768.33067489130520.520754074822161634142232DRYL
2022-11-19 03:00:40FORECAST20235313337.0930.4333.7626.7887646587361.03681.10681.792.8968FF5.0985.0940324.975218991218.7056846614770.522375308848191634142232DRYL
2022-11-18 23:00:03FORECAST20235313337.231.1234.1626.1168391254151.05081.19081.792.9808FF5.280.240324.509023050458.47514994975420.526831713062831634142232DRYL
2022-11-18 19:00:06FORECAST20235313337.2231.1534.18526.0037956840191.02591.11591.792.9059FF5.2286.2240324.430512935198.43642477202830.52764162412181634142232DRYL
2022-11-18 15:00:08FORECAST20235313340.5731.3535.9624.5757470636650.85630.93631.792.7263FF8.5788.5740323.436771335137.94870028342070.659166398307821634132224DRYL
2022-11-18 11:00:03FORECAST20235313340.5930.5935.5925.0902484251410.66230.76231.792.5523FF8.5986.5940323.795214801418.12410237823940.65991240877311634132224DRYL
2022-11-18 07:00:37FORECAST20235313340.5930.6235.60525.04667548960.66230.77231.792.5623FF8.5988.5940323.764876505258.10923379675720.65991240877311634132224DRYL
2022-11-18 03:00:26FORECAST20235313335.4630.0932.77527.859284516610.96031.07031.792.8603FF3.4684.4640325.716326304929.07422380623380.456312720829941624142228DRYL
2022-11-17 23:00:07FORECAST20235313334.827.8731.33529.3493624279251.10661.23661.793.0266FF2.878.840326.744539483169.5897439106370.429801725426891624142228DRYL
2022-11-17 19:00:08FORECAST20235313334.7827.1330.95529.85245935981.22681.38681.793.1768TF2.7874.7840327.090818586699.76446536882270.429002665465741624142228DRYL
2022-11-17 15:00:09FORECAST20235313335.1527.2831.21530.0053977015621.23821.35821.793.1482TF3.1582.1540327.19599760849.81764603459930.443828967197351624142228DRYL
2022-11-17 11:00:12FORECAST20235313334.4727.3130.8937.9247498911312.6172.8971.794.687TF2.4770.4740332.5868497755712.6132730948180.416656394957631624151217.5WETL
2022-11-17 07:00:22FORECAST20235313335.9227.3631.6438.1312009740952.6172.8971.794.687TF3.9276.9240332.7259397394412.6872396774990.474913083177731624151217.5WETL
2022-11-17 03:00:40FORECAST20235313336.9328.6732.833.5740412722012.77743.05741.794.8474TF4.9373.9340329.6386673593911.0673022228370.515888419299591634151220WETL
2022-11-16 23:00:10FORECAST20235313333.3429.0631.227.0518210068670.83391.18391.792.9739FF1.3471.3440325.157516356618.79610293151620.372429096320571624142228DRYL
2022-11-16 19:00:06FORECAST20235313333.3729.0731.2227.2670374361190.83391.28391.793.0739FF1.3766.3740325.306570217898.87014642834670.373584584401921624142228DRYL
2022-11-16 15:00:04FORECAST20235313339.1528.7533.9526.7127599435650.78691.27691.793.0669FF7.1578.1540324.922525236648.67957741690340.604768717641961634142232DRYL
2022-11-16 11:00:13FORECAST20235313333.4529.5631.50529.0399714321381.63991.84991.793.6399TF1.4575.4540326.531367365979.48246158000470.376671418990661624152235DRYL
2022-11-16 07:00:11FORECAST20235313333.4929.5931.5429.3342747986681.63991.84991.793.6399TF1.4961.4940326.734147907689.58450928083250.378217811265761624152235DRYL
2022-11-16 03:00:34FORECAST20235313340.0830.0335.05527.3781502094961.77452.15451.793.9445TF8.0875.0840325.383492437098.90839813163310.64070104925261634152240DRYM
2022-11-15 23:00:11FORECAST20235313341.2130.1735.6925.5455530708710.61051.50051.793.2905TF9.2179.2140324.112026576428.27962097581560.682716258139711634152240DRYM
2022-11-15 19:00:03FORECAST20235313341.1630.3235.7425.395599752430.58611.47611.793.2661TF9.1679.1640324.007725960088.22837052517720.680901257235981634142232DRYL
2022-11-15 15:00:05FORECAST20235313339.1930.5434.86524.9814338092120.58811.50811.793.2981TF7.1978.1940323.71944474938.08697588175940.606335166574441634152240DRYM
2022-11-15 11:00:05FORECAST20235313334.3831.3932.88523.7549076143930.12720.38721.792.1772FF2.3868.3840322.863937158957.66960299923020.413086772106631624122214DRYL
2022-11-15 07:00:10FORECAST20235313333.2131.7932.523.9888858333330.12340.38341.792.1734FF1.2161.2140323.027343815727.74906607184020.367435355588661624122214DRYL
2022-11-15 03:00:12FORECAST20235313333.6933.4833.58523.7613631666670.00350.03351.791.8235FF1.6968.6940322.868446916577.67179442224220.38597859594614162411227DRYL