Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 20, 2022

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DAY 51 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/21/2022 07:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.73°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.49°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.11°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.774 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 73 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.68 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.68 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 24 in SWE DAY: 42 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 325.31 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 7.90 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 131 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-21 07:00:11	OBSERVATION	2023	51	131	42.72998	33.49004	38.11001	24.28636875	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	10.72998	72.72998	42	325.31450299032	7.9007079793458	0.77444097922364	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-21 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2023	51	131	42.72998	33.49004	38.11001	24.28636875	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	10.72998	72.72998	42	325.31450299032	7.9007079793458	0.77444097922364	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-20 11:00:01	FORECAST	2023	51	131	44.86	32.92	38.89	24.581854666667	0.0033	0.0033	10.68	10.6833	T	T	12.86	74.86	42	325.51901098125	8.0018610191781	0.83895543757182	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-20 07:00:13	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.46	34.73	39.095	23.922411333333	0.0088	0.0088	10.68	10.6888	T	T	11.46	73.46	42	325.06239431329	7.7762763057608	0.79803916203041	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-20 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.97	30.19	37.08	23.94726921156	0.0128	0.0128	10.68	10.6928	T	T	11.97	73.97	42	325.07962046597	7.7847691864904	0.81361359945932	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-19 23:00:01	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.71	30.16	36.935	24.43035955138	0.0063	0.0063	10.68	10.6863	T	T	11.71	74.71	42	325.41417926414	7.9499854025402	0.80576861106369	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-19 19:00:01	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.73	31.18	37.455	24.454153333333	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	11.73	74.73	42	325.43064677575	7.9581309356201	0.80637910196054	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-19 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.69	30.37	37.03	24.447210666667	0.0131	0.0131	10.68	10.6931	T	T	11.69	74.69	42	325.42584190709	7.9557541134801	0.80515695186414	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-19 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.69	30.91	37.3	24.206404	0.0135	0.0135	10.68	10.6935	T	T	11.69	74.69	42	325.25913240029	7.8733539635708	0.80515695186414	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-19 07:00:23	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.29	31.38	37.335	24.004730416667	0.0046	0.0046	10.68	10.6846	T	T	11.29	74.29	42	325.1194360933	7.8044044166384	0.79267971781059	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-19 03:00:38	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.44	31.56	37.5	24.021388843583	0.004	0.004	10.68	10.684	T	T	11.44	74.44	42	325.13097785064	7.8100976440448	0.79741296890787	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-18 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.19	31.44	37.315	24.004793333333	0.0136	0.0136	10.68	10.6936	T	T	11.19	76.19	42	325.11947968591	7.804425918501	0.78948827804134	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-18 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.16	31.31	37.235	24.035953333333	0.0043	0.0043	10.68	10.6843	T	T	11.16	76.16	42	325.14106842773	7.8150755474791	0.78852526371955	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-18 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	51	131	42.97	30.39	36.68	24.014688	0.0002	0.0002	10.68	10.6802	T	T	10.97	75.97	42	325.12633524345	7.8078075014549	0.78236665804715	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-18 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	51	131	42.89	31.02	36.955	23.833897273737	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	10.89	76.89	42	325.00104650848	7.7460415563403	0.77974296919866	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-18 07:00:35	FORECAST	2023	51	131	42.75	30.88	36.815	23.894758402363	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	10.75	76.75	42	325.0432299512	7.7668294500075	0.77510822792232	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-18 03:00:24	FORECAST	2023	51	131	41.45	31.13	36.29	23.871056455669	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	9.45	75.45	42	325.0268026757	7.7587331562772	0.72953299081377	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-17 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	51	131	42.96	31.45	37.205	23.885237333333	0.0008	0.0008	10.68	10.6808	T	T	10.96	70.96	42	325.03663123552	7.7635770790876	0.78203968471912	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-17 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.67	30.41	37.04	23.73802	0.0014	0.0014	10.68	10.6814	T	T	11.67	72.67	42	324.93457980408	7.7133035540808	0.80454412514011	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-17 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.66	30.95	37.305	23.947255590636	0.0019	0.0019	10.68	10.6819	T	T	11.66	71.66	42	325.07961102716	7.7847645325719	0.80423727420315	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-17 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	51	131	38.07	30.12	34.095	24.123670943427	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	6.07	65.07	42	325.2018330927	7.8450620117276	0.59331596312834	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-17 07:00:21	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.13	29.85	36.49	24.123779115544	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	11.13	70.13	42	325.20190801847	7.8450989969909	0.78755967957213	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-17 03:00:37	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.12	29.68	36.4	24.173950333333	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	11.12	64.12	42	325.23665705653	7.8622547942638	0.78723724778143	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-16 23:00:07	FORECAST	2023	51	131	44.56	30.98	37.77	24.510770666667	0.0065	0.0065	10.68	10.6865	T	T	12.56	70.56	42	325.46982723847	7.9775162943617	0.83067604860993	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-16 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	51	131	42.62	30.55	36.585	24.75852	0.0455	0.0455	10.68	10.7255	T	T	10.62	65.62	42	325.6412090689	8.0623943875566	0.77075556026426	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-16 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	51	131	42.61	31.27	36.94	24.851672	0.0455	0.0455	10.68	10.7255	T	T	10.61	64.61	42	325.70561953392	8.0943292252137	0.7704187977289	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-16 11:00:12	FORECAST	2023	51	131	44.5	30.83	37.665	24.104652	0.0007	0.0007	10.68	10.6807	T	T	12.5	68.5	42	325.18865923974	7.8385594653205	0.82898803041631	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-16 07:00:11	FORECAST	2023	51	131	39.71	31.77	35.74	24.28686125	0.0002	0.0002	10.68	10.6802	T	T	7.71	54.71	42	325.31484398093	7.9008764783303	0.66209407202631	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-16 03:00:32	FORECAST	2023	51	131	44.13	29.87	37	24.17944125	0.0037	0.0037	10.68	10.6837	T	T	12.13	61.13	42	325.24045984611	7.864132590972	0.81834249194588	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-15 23:00:09	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.93	30.89	37.41	24.865813333333	0.0235	0.0235	10.68	10.7035	T	T	11.93	62.93	42	325.71539630465	8.0991782443042	0.81241959230594	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-15 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.9	31.6	37.75	24.815028	0.0235	0.0235	10.68	10.7035	T	T	11.9	62.9	42	325.68028365603	8.0817653579722	0.81152099963885	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-15 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	51	131	44.53	31.71	38.12	24.694214666667	0.0147	0.0147	10.68	10.6947	T	T	12.53	64.53	42	325.59673589852	8.0403556910441	0.82983337742484	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-15 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	51	131	44.09	30.29	37.19	24.197513333333	0.0229	0.0229	10.68	10.7029	T	T	12.09	61.09	42	325.25297547472	7.8703132107559	0.81716734831077	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-15 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	51	131	44.06	30.28	37.17	24.4261645	0.0229	0.0229	10.68	10.7029	T	T	12.06	55.06	42	325.41127579494	7.9485493527222	0.81628289115876	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-15 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	51	131	43.06	30.08	36.57	24.323883166667	0.0219	0.0219	10.68	10.7019	T	T	11.06	60.06	42	325.3404755031	7.9135437155252	0.7852966779012	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-14 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	51	131	42.95	31.92	37.435	24.985024	0.1123	0.1123	10.68	10.7923	T	T	10.95	71.95	42	325.79779999079	8.140065851917	0.78171242884977	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-14 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	51	131	44.2	31.62	37.91	24.921173333333	0.0853	0.0853	10.68	10.7653	T	T	12.2	73.2	42	325.75366668864	8.1181635915166	0.82038761729746	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-14 15:00:16	FORECAST	2023	51	131	48.81	33.52	41.165	23.777656	0.0853	0.0853	10.68	10.7653	T	T	16.81	93.81	42	324.96205933458	7.7268360599092	0.92355721263434	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-14 11:00:18	FORECAST	2023	51	131	41.26	33.5	37.38	23.304297333333	0.1872	0.1972	10.68	10.8772	T	T	9.26	84.26	42	324.63370022519	7.565360274468	0.72250585483233	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-14 07:00:11	FORECAST	2023	51	131	41.23	33.51	37.37	22.981108166667	0.185	0.195	10.68	10.875	T	T	9.23	78.23	42	324.40928368841	7.4552848387141	0.7213882136694	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-14 03:00:15	FORECAST	2023	51	131	40.94	33.29	37.115	23.128183116265	0.1652	0.1652	10.68	10.8452	T	T	8.94	75.94	42	324.51143263593	7.5053598373253	0.71047292783223	16	4	4	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-13 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	51	131	46.76	29.01	37.885	24.097565333333	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	14.76	99.76	42	325.18375035506	7.8361366695195	0.88519463325728	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2022-11-13 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	51	131	46.76	28.09	37.425	24.29278	0	0	10.68	10.68	T	T	14.76	99.76	42	325.31894189315	7.902901485243	0.88519463325728	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2022-11-13 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	51	131	46.38	29.59	37.985	24.383854666667	0.0729	0.0729	10.68	10.7529	T	T	14.38	94.38	42	325.38199068201	7.9340671719409	0.87679489152305	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2022-11-13 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	51	131	39.47	33.13	36.3	24.053941333333	0.2058	0.2058	10.68	10.8858	T	T	7.47	78.47	42	325.1535303677	7.8212239437908	0.6522993231106	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-13 07:00:16	FORECAST	2023	51	131	40.35	33.87	37.11	24.158005868353	0.1329	0.1329	10.68	10.8129	T	T	8.35	90.35	42	325.22561425626	7.8568022977414	0.68766800481018	16	3	4	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-13 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	51	131	33.56	33.25	33.405	24.555276	0.0254	0.0454	10.68	10.7254	T	T	1.56	73.56	42	325.50062197081	7.9927576106649	0.39562383541161	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L