MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 19, 2022

[ Friday, November 18, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 20, 2022 ]

DAY 50 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/20/2022 07:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.813
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 57

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 43
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 130

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-20 07:00:11OBSERVATION20235013044.1899629.9100237.0499924.5537566666670010.910.9TT12.1899657.1899643326.5327281394 8.01760515043770.8127576108783216 4411229WETL
2022-11-20 03:00:11OBSERVATION20235013044.1899629.9100237.0499924.5537566666670010.910.9TT12.1899657.1899643326.5327281394 8.01760515043770.8127576108783216 4411229WETL
2022-11-19 11:00:02FORECAST20235013045.2432.138.6724.6135066666670.00280.002810.910.9028TT13.2458.2443326.573909068438.03812908801510.84271928654567164411229WETL
2022-11-19 07:00:22FORECAST20235013044.8232.138.4624.5323730833330.00290.002910.910.9029TT12.8257.8243326.517988615268.01026111512910.83113437466909164411229WETL
2022-11-19 03:00:37FORECAST20235013045.0429.637.3224.5810661769170.00310.003110.910.9031TT13.0458.0443326.551551191088.02698529000270.83726923788862164411229WETL
2022-11-18 23:00:01FORECAST20235013045.2730.4837.87524.5869933333330010.910.9TT13.2760.2743326.555636305068.0290212527950.84352634933311164411229WETL
2022-11-18 19:00:01FORECAST20235013045.330.3637.8324.5664386666670010.910.9TT13.360.343326.541469357168.02196097908590.84433068754563164411229WETL
2022-11-18 15:00:03FORECAST20235013045.4430.8438.1424.5665480010.910.9TT13.4460.4443326.541544715228.02199853224070.84804824768271164411229WETL
2022-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20235013045.5230.8438.1824.3794706070710010.910.9TT13.5260.5243326.412570892777.95776567785870.850145942494191654112210WETL
2022-11-18 07:00:34FORECAST20235013045.6830.9738.32524.3341144023630010.910.9TT13.6860.6843326.381292446997.94219970919620.854283292125821654112210WETL
2022-11-18 03:00:23FORECAST20235013045.4731.3738.4224.2984404556690010.910.9TT13.4761.4743326.35668852687.92995856347770.84883715169828164411229WETL
2022-11-17 23:00:04FORECAST20235013045.4131.2938.3524.2696533333330010.910.9TT13.4155.4143326.336832746557.92008180065680.8472566208744164411229WETL
2022-11-17 19:00:04FORECAST20235013045.5531.2138.3824.2703093333330010.910.9TT13.5555.5543326.337285235597.9203068596680.850927588398141654112210WETL
2022-11-17 15:00:05FORECAST20235013045.3530.9538.1524.3285293333330010.910.9TT13.3555.3543326.377440634837.94028313822280.84566519712342164411229WETL
2022-11-17 11:00:08FORECAST20235013045.4230.7838.124.3283429434270010.910.9TT13.4254.4243326.377312087787.94021917742540.84752079903894164411229WETL
2022-11-17 07:00:20FORECAST20235013044.9630.937.9324.465609782210010.910.9TT12.9653.9643326.471964081257.98733567804380.83505531785379164411229WETL
2022-11-17 03:00:35FORECAST20235013044.8530.7937.8224.5017863333330010.910.9TT12.8547.8543326.496904034147.99975738113940.83197956558203164411229WETL
2022-11-16 23:00:06FORECAST20235013045.2231.3638.2925.1581333333330010.910.9TT13.2253.2243326.948988993078.22542625828620.84217973097585164411229WETL
2022-11-16 19:00:05FORECAST20235013044.230.8637.5325.3233906666670010.910.9TT12.250.243327.062697796088.2823364687840.81305979760116164411229WETL
2022-11-16 15:00:03FORECAST20235013044.0830.137.0925.4165973333330010.910.9TT12.0849.0843327.126809565768.3144503956710.80942830936297164411229WETL
2022-11-16 11:00:11FORECAST20235013045.2330.2837.75524.5134493333330010.910.9TT13.2351.2343326.50494396588.00376240098840.84244966013398164411229WETL
2022-11-16 07:00:10FORECAST20235013039.0429.3634.224.709817250010.910.9TT7.0442.0443326.640275148768.07122150541550.62234029166068163411228WETL
2022-11-16 03:00:31FORECAST20235013044.9629.3637.1624.7255065833330010.910.9TT12.9643.9643326.651084879348.07661354963720.83505531785379164411229WETL
2022-11-15 23:00:08FORECAST20235013045.1228.4836.825.4443506666670010.910.9TT13.1246.1243327.145896633878.32401491311340.83946378827832164411229WETL
2022-11-15 19:00:03FORECAST20235013045.329.0537.17525.399360010.910.9TT13.346.343327.114954090578.30851048032990.84433068754563164411229WETL
2022-11-15 15:00:04FORECAST20235013044.3230.9737.64525.3208040.00050.000510.910.9005TT12.3247.3243327.060918353048.28144540967740.81664825046816164411229WETL
2022-11-15 11:00:05FORECAST20235013044.0630.7337.39524.6844840.00050.000510.910.9005TT12.0644.0643326.62281998558.06251577396690.8088188872568164411229WETL
2022-11-15 07:00:10FORECAST20235013038.4130.5134.4624.9105658333330010.910.9TT6.4138.4143326.778555604988.14023872231940.59527034584172163411228WETL
2022-11-15 03:00:11FORECAST20235013043.7429.3636.5524.7577178333330010.910.9TT11.7443.7443326.673276628718.08768480646410.79890672401753164411229WETL
2022-11-14 23:00:03FORECAST20235013042.6229.4436.0325.5216320010.910.9TT10.6255.6243327.199038982738.3506534636710.76187138028013164411229WETL
2022-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20235013042.4929.3535.9225.5160013333330010.910.9TT10.4956.4943327.195167418788.34871232811780.75734343100257164411229WETL
2022-11-14 15:00:15FORECAST20235013046.4128.8737.6424.7793133333330010.910.9TT14.4172.4143326.688153703528.09510812290760.8721822480931654112210WETL
2022-11-14 11:00:17FORECAST20235013047.5928.0537.8224.0806186666670.00720.007210.910.9072TT15.5969.5943326.206410912057.85525218779510.897782630767561654112210WETL
2022-11-14 07:00:11FORECAST20235013047.6428.0637.8523.7373121666670.0080.00810.910.908TT15.6463.6443325.969391181787.73763719526020.898778656431651654112210WETL
2022-11-14 03:00:15FORECAST20235013047.7227.4837.623.8390137829320.00150.001510.910.9015TT15.7261.7243326.039627796937.77246318083280.900357604298321654112210WETL
2022-11-13 23:00:05FORECAST20235013048.0728.7438.40524.5615213333330010.910.9TT16.0780.0743326.538080060718.02027201955680.9070547834461654112210WETL
2022-11-13 19:00:06FORECAST20235013048.0727.5437.80524.6927213333330010.910.9TT16.0780.0743326.628495811538.06534642660010.9070547834461654112210WETL
2022-11-13 15:00:05FORECAST20235013048.0929.9439.01524.6588826666670010.910.9TT16.0975.0943326.605178965858.05371878644450.907427209764481654112210WETL
2022-11-13 11:00:05FORECAST20235013046.6129.838.20524.3306640.00280.002810.910.9028TT14.6165.6143326.378912840647.94101566501090.87680822572111654112210WETL
2022-11-13 07:00:16FORECAST20235013046.6529.8138.2324.3988672016860.00280.002810.910.9028TT14.6576.6543326.425946029577.96442330836020.877719204112141654112210WETL
2022-11-13 03:00:13FORECAST20235013046.329.8938.09524.5864360.01950.019510.910.9195TT14.367.343326.555252182478.02882980824830.86958728214951654112210WETL
2022-11-12 23:00:20FORECAST20235013046.3631.1638.7625.6295266666670.0010.00110.910.901TT14.3694.3643327.273215080698.38785759319620.871007187221161654112210WETL
2022-11-12 19:00:05FORECAST20235013046.3831.338.8425.2585586666670010.910.9TT14.3890.3843327.018094456798.26000572389830.871478104740721654112210WETL
2022-11-12 15:00:04FORECAST20235013046.2424.4635.3525.7907386666670010.910.9TT14.2484.2443327.384008239978.44347540016280.868156635122561654112210WETL
2022-11-12 11:00:04FORECAST20235013029.9521.3625.65525.9843022288800.0210.9110.93TT-2.0561.9543327.516975129678.51030006685780.24017399431119161411226WETL
2022-11-12 07:00:13FORECAST20235013026.1221.3723.74526.53796434296200.0210.9110.93TT-5.8839.1243327.896948015168.70171751459240.12826078908905161411226WETL
2022-11-12 03:00:28FORECAST20235013022.7421.2221.9826.63341528290400.0310.9110.94TT-9.2643.7443327.9624010758.73475882500870.065055095232914161411226WETL