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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 26, 2022

[ Friday, February 25, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 27, 2022 ]

DAY 149 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/27/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -88

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.09 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 132 in
SWE DAY: 57
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 401.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 52.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -135

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-27 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022149-1350NAN002.522.52FF-32-8857NAN NAN0.0001413486843996316 1111527.5DRYL
2022-02-27 03:00:05OBSERVATION2022149-1350NAN002.522.52FF-32-8857NAN NAN0.0001413486843996316 1111527.5DRYL
2022-02-26 11:00:01FORECAST2022149-13539.2629.8734.5650.267452780584040.19120.19122.522.7112FF7.26-48.7457324.219775231690.0867134804060490.740876656394081641124224DRYL
2022-02-26 07:00:05FORECAST2022149-13539.8324.1231.975NAN0.17010.17012.522.6901FF7.83-48.1757NANNAN0.760517843851751641125230DRYL
2022-02-26 03:00:06FORECAST2022149-13535.5425.6430.59NAN0.18240.18242.522.7024FF3.54-52.4657NANNAN0.595610563232291631125225DRYL
2022-02-25 23:00:01FORECAST2022149-13535.5124.4629.98500.16290.16292.522.6829FF3.51-16.4957324.0337928628900.594347702884121631125225DRYL
2022-02-25 19:00:02FORECAST2022149-13539.7525.3832.56500.16570.16572.522.6857FF7.75-12.2557324.0337928628900.757811064727121641125230DRYL
2022-02-25 15:00:01FORECAST2022149-13539.1724.2431.70500.20260.20262.522.7226FF7.17-12.8357324.0337928628900.737701113392761641125230DRYL
2022-02-25 11:00:02FORECAST2022149-13539.4425.6232.5300.1530.1532.522.673FF7.44-12.5657324.0337928628900.747167671142111641125230DRYL
2022-02-25 07:00:06FORECAST2022149-13539.8724.932.385NAN0.08380.08382.522.6038FF7.87-12.1357NANNAN0.761865023606471641115215DRYL
2022-02-25 03:00:07FORECAST2022149-13539.7126.5733.14NAN0.13350.13352.522.6535FF7.71-13.2957NANNAN0.756451491070671641125230DRYL
2022-02-24 23:00:02FORECAST2022149-13539.5524.8132.1800.11860.13862.522.6586FF7.5513.5557324.0337928628900.750972278228941641125230DRYL
2022-02-24 19:00:02FORECAST2022149-13538.826.132.4500.11350.13352.522.6535FF6.812.857324.0337928628900.724440230744381641125230DRYL
2022-02-24 15:00:02FORECAST2022149-13539.2525.8832.56500.06280.08282.522.6028FF7.2513.2557324.0337928628900.740524801043111641115215DRYL
2022-02-24 11:00:02FORECAST2022149-13539.4226.5332.97500.10240.12242.522.6424FF7.4213.4257324.0337928628900.746472656317811641125230DRYL
2022-02-24 07:00:05FORECAST2022149-13539.7226.8233.27NAN0.08090.09092.522.6109FF7.7214.7257NANNAN0.756791769870091641125230DRYL
2022-02-24 03:00:05FORECAST2022149-13540.7224.9932.855NAN0.01960.06962.522.5896FF8.7214.7257NANNAN0.789491687457991641115215DRYL
2022-02-23 23:00:02FORECAST2022149-13540.5224.7132.6150.0994609659002310.01970.07972.522.5997FF8.5239.5257324.102971177860.0322355945644840.783165791694221641114212DRYL
2022-02-23 19:00:03FORECAST2022149-13539.6924.4832.08500.11620.14622.522.6662FF7.6938.6957324.0337928628900.755770163939621641125230DRYL
2022-02-23 15:00:01FORECAST2022149-13540.7725.0832.9250.0470159149074950.12060.17062.522.6906FF8.7739.7757324.066496128670.0152362828063560.791056103467781641124224DRYL
2022-02-23 11:00:02FORECAST2022149-13534.6525.6530.150.311001471932430.05290.12292.522.6429FF2.6533.6557324.250046333180.100842241683780.557778278291051631124220DRYL
2022-02-23 07:00:05FORECAST2022149-13535.3623.9729.665NAN0.05030.12032.532.6503FF3.3636.3657NANNAN0.588018916491011631125225DRYL
2022-02-23 03:00:09FORECAST2022149-13540.9223.7332.325NAN0.05050.11052.522.6305FF8.9240.9257NANNAN0.795708154173371641125230DRYL
2022-02-22 23:00:03FORECAST2022149-13541.0823.7132.395126.985777212820.02090.07092.532.6009FF9.0861.0857399.5375688310650.7355887037330.80060187577371164111123DRYL
2022-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2022149-13540.8823.2332.055126.878477587420.01850.04852.532.5785FF8.8861.8857399.4834995583750.685858245260.79447366394816164111123DRYL
2022-02-22 15:00:03FORECAST2022149-13540.5723.7932.18126.830347108430.02470.04472.532.5747FF8.5762.5757399.4592413773450.6635542395580.78475746645273164111123DRYL
2022-02-22 11:00:02FORECAST2022149-13540.4123.9432.175127.004418599460.02690.04692.532.5769FF8.4159.4157399.5469608956750.7442294717360.77964029897007164111123DRYL
2022-02-22 07:00:06FORECAST2022149-13535.7923.4429.615127.032902073890.01050.04052.542.5805FF3.7953.7957399.5613108272150.7574328708260.60609450603486163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-22 03:00:06FORECAST2022149-13541.0323.4832.255126.847894286790.01050.03052.542.5705FF9.0361.0357399.4680856517250.6716854996960.79908020662409164111123DRYL
2022-02-21 23:00:03FORECAST2022149-13543.2223.9733.595120.9108013133700.032.672.7FF11.2272.2257396.453012654247.9354514431210.85911517188656165111123.5DRYL
2022-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2022149-13543.6925.0134.35120.938787553890.00020.03022.672.7002FF11.6967.6957396.467332014647.9482784385720.87022442789043165111123.5DRYL
2022-02-21 15:00:03FORECAST2022149-13543.7926.0634.925120.982388808130.00020.04022.672.7102FF11.7973.7957396.4896388804747.9682636494320.87250784094251165111123.5DRYL
2022-02-21 11:00:03FORECAST2022149-13541.3423.2932.315121.841489372750.14270.17272.672.8427FF9.3463.3457396.9286603660748.3623791537320.80840232849446164112126DRYL
2022-02-21 07:00:07FORECAST2022149-13541.4223.3432.38122.006197379790.14270.15272.742.8927FF9.4267.4257397.0127208167648.4380123782560.81076443062234164112126DRYL
2022-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2022149-13541.5623.732.63122.805811103090.08540.09542.862.9554FF9.5663.5657397.4203126155348.8055238395950.81485483327589164112126DRYL
2022-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2022149-13539.220.0529.625112.2932549221500.022.442.46FF7.259.257391.9950150024144.0183961478760.73876183527737164111123DRYL
2022-02-20 19:00:04FORECAST2022149-13538.6124.2431.425112.631307397080.1460.1662.482.646FF6.6162.6157392.1717401107944.1708158128650.71750492280919164112126DRYL
2022-02-20 15:00:04FORECAST2022149-13538.722.3430.52112.383979756870.1460.1662.442.606FF6.762.757392.0424585028944.0592917202220.72080050536831164112126DRYL
2022-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2022149-13538.8124.1731.49114.625027263680.19120.23122.512.7412FF6.8161.8157393.2109245277945.0718129443750.72480291741124164112126DRYL
2022-02-20 07:00:08FORECAST2022149-13539.1424.0431.59115.586384461530.19120.24122.622.8612FF7.1456.1457393.710134245545.5075309433010.73663819281493164112126DRYL
2022-02-20 03:00:09FORECAST2022149-13539.1623.4831.32116.140016876620.23460.28462.783.0646FF7.1665.1657393.9970696166145.758826314610.73734705050217164112126DRYL
2022-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2022149-13537.4528.1832.815119.652256644540.8821.4823.024.502TF5.4564.4557395.8080159907147.3593223112890.673446392200461631141210WETL
2022-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2022149-13537.6628.2732.965120.044943233460.79551.40553.134.5355TF5.6664.6657396.0094868801647.5389363724410.681628968397381631141210WETL
2022-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2022149-13534.7927.3331.06120.744198174870.7561.3763.194.566TF2.7964.7957396.367747895847.8591059020560.56377376278941631141210WETL
2022-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2022149-13529.624.827.2126.437397928720.45861.75863.114.8686TF-2.454.657399.2610805839150.4815321232390.343421441798341621151210WETL
2022-02-19 07:00:06FORECAST2022149-13531.3230.4330.875124.622945607110.31231.56233.034.5923TF-0.6852.3257398.3434988192349.6427401862940.414364369414441621151210WETL
2022-02-19 03:00:06FORECAST2022149-13531.3630.7631.06124.223251667780.0461.2962.924.216TF-0.6463.3657398.1408016741349.4583450055760.41605824142125162114128WETL