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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 27, 2022

[ Saturday, February 26, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, February 28, 2022 ]

DAY 150 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/28/2022 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -136

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.92 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.92 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 58
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 405.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -134

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-28 07:00:03OBSERVATION2022150-1340NAN002.522.52FF-32-13658NAN NAN4.5444787165061E-516 1111527.5DRYL
2022-02-28 03:00:04OBSERVATION2022150-1340NAN002.522.52FF-32-13658NAN NAN4.5444787165061E-516 1111527.5DRYL
2022-02-27 11:00:01FORECAST2022150-13433.1129.7431.4252.63807500758031.20991.20992.523.7299TF1.11-102.8958326.894536418480.862372306640150.463124346639121621144232DRYL
2022-02-27 07:00:05FORECAST2022150-13435.3529.4432.395NAN1.33661.33662.523.8566TF3.35-100.6558NANNAN0.565544641871861631145250DRYMH
2022-02-27 03:00:05FORECAST2022150-13434.9829.6632.32NAN1.57811.57812.524.0981TF2.98-101.0258NANNAN0.548744895576241631155262.5WETM
2022-02-26 23:00:02FORECAST2022150-13435.3828.8532.1152.58469640684561.60171.79172.524.3117TF3.38-61.6258326.857790560710.844828156811750.566902027642551631154250WETM
2022-02-26 19:00:02FORECAST2022150-13432.3729.3730.873.6184752857061.36271.55272.524.0727TF0.37-64.6358327.568559171751.18529873573730.429491784447331621154240WETL
2022-02-26 15:00:01FORECAST2022150-13434.530.1732.3352.36997683062671.23491.42492.523.9449TF2.5-62.558326.709927149330.774294957679640.526824292782191631144240DRYM
2022-02-26 11:00:02FORECAST2022150-13434.0630.232.132.70289037043731.35551.54552.524.0655TF2.06-62.9458326.939148652440.883680676611660.506657136173211631154250WETM
2022-02-26 07:00:06FORECAST2022150-13435.4329.9432.685NAN1.3031.4732.523.993TF3.43-60.5758NANNAN0.569162576728411631145250DRYMH
2022-02-26 03:00:06FORECAST2022150-13435.3228.4831.9NAN1.28361.46362.523.9836TF3.32-64.6858NANNAN0.56418648304851631145250DRYMH
2022-02-25 23:00:02FORECAST2022150-13433.9829.9331.9552.86332598715431.14191.30192.523.8219TF1.98-30.0258327.04954445650.936449459729260.502987036925081631144240DRYM
2022-02-25 19:00:03FORECAST2022150-13434.7928.5431.6652.69535240110911.17721.34722.523.8672TF2.79-25.2158326.933960666530.881202235886620.540081993447181631144240DRYM
2022-02-25 15:00:02FORECAST2022150-13433.7229.2431.480.946219281018021.11721.31722.523.8372TF1.72-27.2858325.727435064770.308209579414830.491059077397811621144232DRYL
2022-02-25 11:00:02FORECAST2022150-13434.0729.0631.5651.06333759210920.92851.07852.523.5985TF2.07-26.9358325.808389056530.346444307908360.507115865331611631144240DRYM
2022-02-25 07:00:06FORECAST2022150-13433.7729.1631.465NAN0.80560.88562.523.4056TF1.77-26.2358NANNAN0.493352624119451621135230DRYL
2022-02-25 03:00:07FORECAST2022150-13434.2827.0930.685NAN0.75940.88942.523.4094TF2.28-26.7258NANNAN0.516746070250331631135237.5DRYL
2022-02-24 23:00:03FORECAST2022150-13431.228.0229.611.31163921466990.85340.97342.543.5134TF-0.8-2.858325.979939356390.427568071655560.377435603021581621134224DRYL
2022-02-24 19:00:03FORECAST2022150-13432.0429.9230.980.476188059602450.74220.85222.543.3922TF0.039999999999999-2.9658325.402299825310.154952689743990.414642217856241621134224DRYL
2022-02-24 15:00:03FORECAST2022150-13434.0527.1430.5950.94169066041180.65150.71152.543.2515FF2.05-0.9558325.72430432840.306731535255180.506198398211041631134230DRYL
2022-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2022150-13432.2327.5129.870.826402953998950.74090.84092.543.3809TF0.23-2.7758325.644591238040.269113652152890.423178499614151621134224DRYL
2022-02-24 07:00:05FORECAST2022150-13432.9429.5531.245NAN0.72370.80372.533.3337FF0.94-0.06000000000000258NANNAN0.455365648072991621135230DRYL
2022-02-24 03:00:05FORECAST2022150-13432.0129.7630.885NAN0.57870.59872.573.1687FF0.009999999999998-0.9900000000000158NANNAN0.413297951530021621135230DRYL
2022-02-23 23:00:02FORECAST2022150-13435.1527.6831.4150.0848932479130010.53770.55772.583.1377FF3.1527.1558325.131332773920.0276014548374610.556476408442021631134230DRYL
2022-02-23 19:00:03FORECAST2022150-13433.6927.6930.690.246725749251680.5520.6722.553.222FF1.6924.6958325.243432535470.0802459295815010.489683086390291621134224DRYL
2022-02-23 15:00:02FORECAST2022150-13434.4827.4330.9550.0133412482408290.43810.55812.573.1281FF2.4826.4858325.081754724130.00433699638833890.525908702656591631135237.5DRYL
2022-02-23 11:00:02FORECAST2022150-13434.1428.2331.1850.420714464714150.55210.60212.593.1921FF2.1420.1458325.36390139550.136885299612920.510326671992061631134230DRYL
2022-02-23 07:00:05FORECAST2022150-13431.4728.2729.87NAN0.62040.67042.63.2704FF-0.5319.4758NANNAN0.389289381848231621135230DRYL
2022-02-23 03:00:09FORECAST2022150-13431.528.2929.895NAN0.60930.65932.583.2393FF-0.524.558NANNAN0.390613075635031621135230DRYL
2022-02-22 23:00:03FORECAST2022150-13431.4326.8729.15127.44574095730.37010.39012.582.9701FF-0.5744.4358400.520650319151.0446510486160.38752645520569162112124DRYL
2022-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2022150-13434.1126.1430.125126.958992667670.49170.51172.563.0717FF2.1148.1158400.2764712913850.8186975837250.50895068179767163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-22 15:00:03FORECAST2022150-13434.1726.2430.205126.909739091140.48180.50182.553.0518FF2.1749.1758400.251746234250.7958446853560.51170253929393163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-22 11:00:02FORECAST2022150-13435.8827.3531.615126.994995443160.39080.42082.552.9708FF3.8846.8858400.2945425537450.8354036075320.58939703515763163112125DRYL
2022-02-22 07:00:07FORECAST2022150-13437.0127.2632.135127.046096490740.30190.31192.572.8819FF5.0143.0158400.3201894178150.8591174119660.63906066137784163112125DRYL
2022-02-22 03:00:06FORECAST2022150-13437.1429.1733.155126.836071040690.29520.30522.562.8652FF5.1450.1458400.2147594555950.761667661840.64464392032151163112125DRYL
2022-02-21 23:00:03FORECAST2022150-13441.0430.3835.71120.614617313370.05720.05722.72.7572FF9.0465.0458397.0660265414347.8919668394370.79374239026651164111123DRYL
2022-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2022150-13442.6631.3537.005120.495932887220.00520.00522.72.7052FF10.6662.6658397.0054743180847.8375449892920.84276428186012164111123DRYL
2022-02-21 15:00:03FORECAST2022150-13442.7531.4137.08120.534504808130.00520.00522.712.7152FF10.7568.7558397.0251555288547.8552305180420.84524298270588164111123DRYL
2022-02-21 11:00:04FORECAST2022150-13437.2529.633.425121.617082706080.73650.87652.73.5765TF5.2552.2558397.5767519795848.3521247275160.64934415653816163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-21 07:00:08FORECAST2022150-13437.7330.434.065121.736690713120.73650.87652.753.6265TF5.7356.7358397.6376018076248.4070857471610.66957994861359163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2022150-13436.9130.7533.83122.641592436430.68630.77632.873.6463TF4.9152.9158398.0973664168148.8232949621050.63474552701686163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-20 23:00:04FORECAST2022150-13433.4328.3830.905113.098656277190.30380.30382.462.7638FF1.4344.4358393.1951664842844.4698449840590.47776472476838162112124DRYL
2022-02-20 19:00:04FORECAST2022150-13432.5928.4430.515113.612334212090.37840.52842.53.0284FF0.5947.5958393.4620793048444.7021452537660.43944858244745162113126DRYL
2022-02-20 15:00:04FORECAST2022150-13432.6428.4930.565112.937202368040.26730.41732.462.8773FF0.6447.6458393.1112012638844.3968792902810.44171707789417162112124DRYL
2022-02-20 11:00:04FORECAST2022150-13433.3431.8132.575114.591079263680.52520.71522.553.2652FF1.3447.3458393.9696833007245.14541120660.47364322520091162113126DRYL
2022-02-20 07:00:08FORECAST2022150-13433.3231.9732.645115.567305794860.35210.54212.673.2121FF1.3241.3258394.4747256381845.5883812461720.47272770381177162113126DRYL
2022-02-20 03:00:09FORECAST2022150-13432.1531.8632.005116.138595543280.19890.42892.833.2589FF0.1549.1558394.7696970989145.8479981841150.41957963547395162112124DRYL