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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 25, 2022

[ Thursday, February 24, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 26, 2022 ]

DAY 148 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/26/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -51

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 403.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.69 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -136

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-26 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022148-1360NAN002.522.52FF-32-5156NAN NAN0.0001390111512701916 1111527.5DRYL
2022-02-26 03:00:05OBSERVATION2022148-1360NAN002.522.52FF-32-5156NAN NAN0.0001390111512701916 1111527.5DRYL
2022-02-25 11:00:01FORECAST2022148-13635.9424.6130.27500.00430.00432.522.5243FF3.94-15.0656322.9911214547700.61023886372791631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-25 07:00:05FORECAST2022148-13636.2315.8726.05NAN0.00280.00282.522.5228FF4.23-14.7756NANNAN0.622262715779761631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-25 03:00:07FORECAST2022148-13635.1614.0624.61NAN0.00360.00362.522.5236FF3.16-15.8456NANNAN0.577402195538621631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-24 23:00:02FORECAST2022148-13636.114.7925.445000.022.522.54FF4.111.156322.9911214547700.616886574957721631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-24 19:00:02FORECAST2022148-13636.2715.6525.96000.022.522.54FF4.2711.2756322.9911214547700.623912215410571631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-24 15:00:02FORECAST2022148-13636.415.7926.09500.00170.02172.522.5417FF4.411.456322.9911214547700.629257338360711631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-24 11:00:02FORECAST2022148-13636.2315.9326.080.00863329724429190.00190.02192.522.5419FF4.2311.2356322.997149748640.00278853040283910.622262715779761631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-24 07:00:04FORECAST2022148-13636.4515.7826.115NAN0.00060.01062.522.5306FF4.4512.4556NANNAN0.631306597424561631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-24 03:00:05FORECAST2022148-13636.0515.8825.965NAN0.00160.05162.522.5716FF4.0511.0556NANNAN0.614812757017641631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-23 23:00:02FORECAST2022148-13636.116.1226.110.33223163256690.00160.06162.522.5816FF4.136.156323.223010499940.107384908461580.616886574957721631114210DRYL
2022-02-23 19:00:03FORECAST2022148-13636.4715.9626.2150.147367567388990.00160.03162.522.5516FF4.4736.4756323.094004336160.0476135774569860.632125260907151631114210DRYL
2022-02-23 15:00:01FORECAST2022148-13636.2615.8126.0350.30039591490750.00160.05162.522.5716FF4.2636.2656323.200798472610.0970881995560130.623500051263861631114210DRYL
2022-02-23 11:00:02FORECAST2022148-13636.4816.6226.550.404317471932430.00060.07062.522.5906FF4.4836.4856323.273298712170.130705042878560.63253436804891631114210DRYL
2022-02-23 07:00:05FORECAST2022148-13636.5516.4826.515NAN0.00160.08162.522.6016FF4.5537.5556NANNAN0.635393885754521631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-23 03:00:09FORECAST2022148-13636.7616.8926.825NAN0.00160.06162.522.5816FF4.7636.7656NANNAN0.643926800606221631115212.5DRYL
2022-02-22 23:00:03FORECAST2022148-13636.8115.4826.145127.241289212820.00210.05212.532.5821FF4.8156.8156398.9115431202750.75801902850.64594805842182163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2022148-13637.3216.9627.14127.124313587420.00120.03122.532.5612FF5.3258.3256398.8524112661950.7038390049020.66632178328404163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-22 15:00:03FORECAST2022148-13637.5216.4827127.066124441770.00120.02122.532.5512FF5.5258.5256398.8229897727950.6768916487070.67418355926134163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-22 11:00:02FORECAST2022148-13634.6816.5425.61127.230738599460.00080.02082.532.5508FF2.6855.6856398.9062104451350.7531317868460.55690843473647163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-22 07:00:06FORECAST2022148-13634.2817.9326.105127.157487407220.0010.0312.542.571FF2.2855.2856398.8691826084550.7192030646620.53971078633356163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-22 03:00:05FORECAST2022148-13637.1816.2126.695127.099306286790.00150.02152.542.5615FF5.1857.1856398.839767651750.6922577881160.66077452778818163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-21 23:00:02FORECAST2022148-13636.6515.5326.09121.279527980040.00170.03172.672.7017FF4.6565.6556395.875355801248.01157629050.63946584708841163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2022148-13636.8315.1726121.332387553890.00180.03182.672.7018FF4.8360.8356395.9024784793348.0357929524010.64675541581281163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-21 15:00:03FORECAST2022148-13637.5518.0427.795121.381728808130.00190.04192.672.7119FF5.5566.5556395.9277925931448.0583999481420.6753562864091163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-21 11:00:03FORECAST2022148-13634.9717.3426.155122.150848039410.00190.03192.672.7019FF2.9758.9756396.3219728404448.4110650791130.56931191081551163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-21 07:00:07FORECAST2022148-13635.316.9226.11122.317032046450.00190.01192.742.7519FF3.363.356396.407042457448.4873329157010.58334283645055163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2022148-13634.4616.225.33123.086961769760.00220.01222.862.8722FF2.4659.4656396.8007013673348.8409927594140.54746088386403163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-20 23:00:03FORECAST2022148-13632.9715.3824.175112.497270922150.00220.02222.442.4622FF0.9756.9756391.3181661207944.0222257508480.48303831435278162111122DRYL
2022-02-20 19:00:04FORECAST2022148-13632.7815.424.09112.805748730410.00360.02362.482.5036FF0.7860.7856391.4799665392944.161190738420.47481998531299162111122DRYL
2022-02-20 15:00:03FORECAST2022148-13632.8315.4524.14112.563067756870.00360.02362.442.4636FF0.8360.8356391.3526880101844.0518591373220.47698180819047162111122DRYL
2022-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2022148-13634.3317.1925.76114.7983752636800.042.512.55FF2.3360.3356392.5220749286145.0608964569340.54186523269274163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-20 07:00:07FORECAST2022148-13634.4117.2225.815115.769299128200.052.622.67FF2.4154.4156393.0279429747345.5005694959810.54530976394086163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-20 03:00:08FORECAST2022148-13634.4116.9625.685116.3232595432800.052.782.83FF2.4163.4156393.3160074300645.7518000148150.54530976394086163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2022148-13633.9820.1227.05119.827900644540.34760.60763.013.6176TF1.9863.9856395.1290890343447.3474892225760.52676181892708163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2022148-13633.3720.3926.88120.19183256680.34760.61763.123.7376TF1.3764.3756395.3164412388247.5138075162780.50035942698168163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 15:00:02FORECAST2022148-13633.592026.795120.76464350820.35190.64193.173.8119TF1.5966.5956395.6109738039747.7758182193690.50988783880032163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2022148-13633.4220.6427.03126.437397928720.82511.32513.084.4051TF1.4262.4256398.5048166987850.3859120854560.502525188427541631141210WETL
2022-02-19 07:00:06FORECAST2022148-13634.6222.4928.555124.622945607110.80861.28862.994.2786TF2.6257.6256397.5837414900649.5480569899860.554334805657021631141210WETL
2022-02-19 03:00:06FORECAST2022148-13633.9522.6328.29124.223251667780.80861.28862.884.1686TF1.9568.9556397.3802726304849.3638696147850.525465137363331631141210WETL
2022-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2022148-13635.1415.525.32120.4710540016400.012.92.91FF3.1468.1456395.4600671082247.6414911000880.57655206049993163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-18 19:00:05FORECAST2022148-13635.6416.9426.29122.1808147003800.013.093.1FF3.6469.6456396.3373154323448.4248160956840.5976885496169163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2022148-13634.7416.9625.85123.0322600841700.013.213.22FF2.7470.7456396.7727582307948.8158491849630.55947966531034163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2022148-13629.8625.0827.47122.334622623990.0270.0273.093.117FF-2.1472.8656396.4160449751248.4954072641270.35189759805913162111122DRYL
2022-02-18 07:00:09FORECAST2022148-13627.0325.1326.08121.848526182020.02450.02453.063.0845FF-4.9766.0356396.1671221266248.2723799529020.24588439199393161111121.5DRYL
2022-02-18 03:00:07FORECAST2022148-13626.0624.9225.49120.477358518260.00710.00712.782.7871FF-5.9474.0656395.463308848547.6443748409580.21393440071456161111121.5DRYL