Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 15, 2021
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Tuesday, December 14, 2021 |
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Thursday, December 16, 2021 ]
DAY 76
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/16/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.14°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.069
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -3
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.31 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.80 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.13 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 74 in
SWE DAY: 17
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.71 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 156
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-12-16 07:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 22.13006 | 18.15008 | 20.14007 | 74.05004875 | 0.31000000000006 | 1.3300000000001 | 7.8 | 9.1300000000001 | T | T | -9.86994 | -2.86994 | 17 | 333.74063714884 | 24.713510450727 | 0.069286072154777 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-16 03:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 22.13006 | 18.15008 | 20.14007 | 74.05004875 | 0.31000000000006 | 1.3300000000001 | 7.8 | 9.1300000000001 | T | T | -9.86994 | -2.86994 | 17 | 333.74063714884 | 24.713510450727 | 0.069286072154777 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-15 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.19 | 19.67 | 22.93 | 74.086883900333 | 0.2135 | 1.2335 | 7.8 | 9.0335 | T | T | -5.81 | 1.19 | 17 | 333.76535108129 | 24.727634815513 | 0.17616821880093 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-15 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.22 | 18.22 | 22.22 | 73.736204595426 | 0.2347 | 1.2547 | 7.8 | 9.0547 | T | T | -5.78 | 1.22 | 17 | 333.52997481912 | 24.59323446197 | 0.17722334244438 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-15 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 23.87 | 17.87 | 20.87 | 73.924028430041 | 0.268 | 1.288 | 7.8 | 9.088 | T | T | -8.13 | -1.13 | 17 | 333.65606841823 | 24.665200687605 | 0.10659870201198 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-14 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 25.99 | 18.31 | 22.15 | 71.303431004802 | 0.2595 | 1.0295 | 7.8 | 8.8295 | T | T | -6.01 | 0.98999999999999 | 17 | 331.89131004258 | 23.664989126714 | 0.16923575487539 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-14 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 25.98 | 18.06 | 22.02 | 71.430701576274 | 0.2875 | 1.0575 | 7.8 | 8.8575 | T | T | -6.02 | 0.98 | 17 | 331.97728804298 | 23.713370592299 | 0.16889378020827 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-14 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.1 | 18.18 | 22.14 | 71.274888185104 | 0.242 | 1.012 | 7.8 | 8.812 | T | T | -5.9 | 1.1 | 17 | 331.87202404277 | 23.654141405412 | 0.17302670864791 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-14 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 25.92 | 20.52 | 23.22 | 72.85154170556 | 0.3154 | 1.0854 | 7.8 | 8.8854 | T | T | -6.08 | 0.92 | 17 | 332.93525587943 | 24.254846678951 | 0.16685124033498 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-14 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 25.81 | 19.65 | 22.73 | 73.340449738171 | 0.3905 | 1.1605 | 7.8 | 8.9605 | T | T | -6.19 | 2.81 | 17 | 333.26409187363 | 24.441738379595 | 0.16314805112891 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-14 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.16 | 19.88 | 23.02 | 73.958376878085 | 0.4894 | 1.2894 | 7.8 | 9.0894 | T | T | -5.84 | 2.16 | 17 | 333.67912138973 | 24.67836621609 | 0.17511707044689 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-13 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.27 | 18.43 | 22.35 | 72.371918718745 | 0.5459 | 0.9859 | 7.8 | 8.7859 | T | T | -5.73 | 8.27 | 17 | 332.61226789833 | 24.071788017195 | 0.17899070915111 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-13 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.66 | 18.78 | 22.72 | 73.194623011264 | 0.6382 | 1.1182 | 7.8 | 8.9182 | T | T | -5.34 | 5.66 | 17 | 333.16605260759 | 24.385963620763 | 0.19315334466563 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-13 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.87 | 20.27 | 23.57 | 74.036369547904 | 0.7034 | 1.2834 | 7.8 | 9.0834 | T | T | -5.13 | 8.87 | 17 | 333.73145872654 | 24.708265608039 | 0.20105437777921 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-13 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 27.04 | 19.09 | 23.065 | 75.707058716405 | 0.8254 | 1.3854 | 7.8 | 9.1854 | T | T | -4.96 | 7.04 | 17 | 334.85009609302 | 25.350515886109 | 0.2075899570673 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-13 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.61 | 17.99 | 22.3 | 74.605122473814 | 0.6868 | 1.2668 | 7.8 | 9.0668 | T | T | -5.39 | 6.61 | 17 | 334.11280964645 | 24.926527083744 | 0.19130040129775 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-13 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.43 | 18.01 | 22.22 | 75.12723720357 | 0.6445 | 1.3645 | 7.8 | 9.1645 | T | T | -5.57 | 1.43 | 17 | 334.46240481477 | 25.127236422196 | 0.18472029387647 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-12 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.67 | 16.8 | 21.735 | 66.486464174321 | 0.6729 | 1.4829 | 7.52 | 9.0029 | T | T | -5.33 | 10.67 | 17 | 328.61667637281 | 21.848560880745 | 0.1935252409732 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-12 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 29.39 | 18.66 | 24.025 | 65.111842217159 | 0.5879 | 1.2979 | 7.52 | 8.8179 | T | T | -2.61 | 14.39 | 17 | 327.67481963035 | 21.335511154307 | 0.30985609137574 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-12 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 28.6 | 17.66 | 23.13 | 65.764311757993 | 0.5651 | 1.3151 | 7.52 | 8.8351 | T | T | -3.4 | 15.6 | 17 | 328.1222855378 | 21.578736280853 | 0.27314238483503 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-12 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 27.58 | 17.75 | 22.665 | 66.72460735792 | 0.3768 | 1.1368 | 7.52 | 8.6568 | T | T | -4.42 | 13.58 | 17 | 328.77951220894 | 21.93768385947 | 0.22916395958248 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-12 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 23.96 | 16.5 | 20.23 | 67.187296916337 | 0.4329 | 1.0729 | 7.61 | 8.6829 | T | T | -8.04 | 9.96 | 17 | 329.09560530001 | 22.111044147154 | 0.10886161825965 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-12 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 27.8 | 16.51 | 22.155 | 67.248498184361 | 0.3971 | 1.0271 | 7.71 | 8.7371 | T | T | -4.2 | 9.8 | 17 | 329.13738802365 | 22.133995040914 | 0.23830077794756 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-11 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 22.74 | 16.52 | 19.63 | 52.428459147207 | 0.3484 | 0.8884 | 6.86 | 7.7484 | T | T | -9.26 | 12.74 | 17 | 318.827555512 | 16.715637469165 | 0.08101728033388 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-11 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 27.27 | 18.3 | 22.785 | 54.305603446911 | 0.4365 | 1.2265 | 6.92 | 8.1465 | T | T | -4.73 | 15.27 | 17 | 320.15499091761 | 17.386209978321 | 0.21662878720228 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-11 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 27.29 | 19.19 | 23.24 | 55.019652218635 | 0.3587 | 1.2787 | 6.95 | 8.2287 | T | T | -4.71 | 17.29 | 17 | 320.65827602538 | 17.642506827943 | 0.21742536725311 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-11 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 27.62 | 16.65 | 22.135 | 57.802366587259 | 0.2406 | 1.0606 | 6.96 | 8.0206 | T | T | -4.38 | 16.62 | 17 | 322.61093780053 | 18.647675691806 | 0.23081046567909 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-11 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 26.81 | 17.08 | 21.945 | 60.990446538735 | 0.2433 | 1.1033 | 7.59 | 8.6933 | T | T | -5.19 | 7.81 | 17 | 324.83115092458 | 19.811596944581 | 0.19877743384789 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-11 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 28.85 | 16.59 | 22.72 | 62.882675270248 | 0.2448 | 1.0448 | 8.27 | 9.3148 | T | T | -3.15 | 10.85 | 17 | 326.14044216012 | 20.50858351685 | 0.2845252792723 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-10 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 29.18 | 16.09 | 22.635 | 63.306267149681 | 0.3065 | 1.1165 | 8.62 | 9.7365 | T | T | -2.82 | 15.18 | 17 | 326.4326773809 | 20.665234280661 | 0.29988838934395 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-10 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 29.24 | 16.85 | 23.045 | 62.252941632053 | 0.332 | 1.042 | 8.44 | 9.482 | T | T | -2.76 | 15.24 | 17 | 325.70540854656 | 20.276119787493 | 0.30272149588099 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-10 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 29.15 | 16.87 | 23.01 | 62.77748342752 | 0.4263 | 1.0463 | 8.43 | 9.4763 | T | T | -2.85 | 15.15 | 17 | 326.06782176171 | 20.469717276894 | 0.2984763472256 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-10 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 27.75 | 15.84 | 21.795 | 65.428562956081 | 0.452 | 0.972 | 8.31 | 9.282 | T | T | -4.25 | 8.75 | 17 | 327.89212044632 | 21.453510245425 | 0.23620690049139 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-10 09:23:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 27.75 | 15.85 | 21.8 | 64.678258763353 | 0.452 | 0.912 | 8.3 | 9.212 | T | T | -4.25 | 9.75 | 17 | 327.37705617249 | 21.174177952309 | 0.23620690049139 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-10 07:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 28.2 | 16.01 | 22.105 | 92.69323185018 | 0.4564 | 0.9064 | 8.52 | 9.4264 | T | T | -3.8 | 21.2 | 17 | 345.95800483149 | 32.067965552271 | 0.25541157455496 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-10 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 28.22 | 16.04 | 22.13 | 93.327867494171 | 0.4551 | 0.9151 | 8.58 | 9.4951 | T | T | -3.78 | 22.22 | 17 | 346.36380175716 | 32.325394995169 | 0.25628363108744 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-09 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 28.15 | 15.65 | 21.9 | 46.280215500742 | 0.1308 | 0.5408 | 7.78 | 8.3208 | T | T | -3.85 | 17.15 | 17 | 314.43520242654 | 14.55212892932 | 0.25323822675691 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-09 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 28.57 | 16.74 | 22.655 | 46.806327806276 | 0.1328 | 0.5028 | 7.81 | 8.3128 | T | T | -3.43 | 15.57 | 17 | 314.81375060666 | 14.735275608818 | 0.27179173623742 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-09 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 28.54 | 16.66 | 22.6 | 42.948226686077 | 0.1328 | 0.4728 | 7.69 | 8.1628 | T | T | -3.46 | 20.54 | 17 | 312.02598801443 | 13.400962865191 | 0.270444415431 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-09 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 29.01 | 14.53 | 21.77 | 45.702331331561 | 0.1767 | 0.7367 | 7.6 | 8.3367 | T | T | -2.99 | 29.01 | 17 | 314.01881997249 | 14.351392154728 | 0.29192714771285 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-09 09:37:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 29.01 | 14.54 | 21.775 | 47.084800815748 | 0.1767 | 0.7467 | 7.72 | 8.4667 | T | T | -2.99 | 27.01 | 17 | 315.01391278353 | 14.832367337602 | 0.29192714771285 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-09 09:35:44 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 29.01 | 14.54 | 21.775 | 49.761688732415 | 0.1767 | 0.7467 | 7.65 | 8.3967 | T | T | -2.99 | 20.01 | 17 | 316.93081465326 | 15.771012548486 | 0.29192714771285 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-08 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 29.94 | 16.92 | 23.43 | 51.991510734557 | 0.2785 | 0.6785 | 7.82 | 8.4985 | T | T | -2.06 | 18.94 | 17 | 318.51765530805 | 16.560214095094 | 0.336617173278 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-08 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 30.22 | 16.96 | 23.59 | 53.25388788346 | 0.2623 | 0.7323 | 7.85 | 8.5823 | T | T | -1.78 | 16.22 | 17 | 319.41204279764 | 17.009933115772 | 0.35057681814326 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-08 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 30.24 | 17.88 | 24.06 | 52.763109192962 | 0.2473 | 0.7173 | 7.72 | 8.4373 | T | T | -1.76 | 19.24 | 17 | 319.06466940304 | 16.834843991329 | 0.35158197119665 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-08 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 25.3 | 20.94 | 23.12 | 62.596761613592 | 0.827 | 1.737 | 7.59 | 9.327 | T | T | -6.7 | 19.3 | 17 | 325.94301306721 | 20.402977088584 | 0.14668040029654 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-08 10:37:50 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 25.3 | 20.94 | 23.12 | 62.596761613592 | 0.827 | 1.737 | 7.59 | 9.327 | T | T | -6.7 | 19.3 | 17 | 325.94301306721 | 20.402977088584 | 0.14668040029654 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-08 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 24.69 | 24.24 | 24.465 | 69.150128234832 | 0.6209 | 1.6809 | 7.6 | 9.2809 | T | T | -7.31 | 19.69 | 17 | 330.4324190459 | 22.84944414997 | 0.12849469945474 | 96 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2021-12-08 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 76 | 156 | 24.73 | 24.37 | 24.55 | 67.690295689514 | 0.3235 | 1.3835 | 7.78 | 9.1635 | T | T | -7.27 | 17.73 | 17 | 329.43881504117 | 22.29981080174 | 0.12963712079088 | 96 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |