Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 1, 2020

[ Sunday, May 31, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, June 2, 2020 ]

DAY 245 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/01/2020 08:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.528
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 248

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.37 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.53 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 118 in
SWE DAY: 152
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.86 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -40

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-06-01 08:00:03FORECAST2020245-4052.6731.8642.265117.868181333330.01471.37472.163.5347TF20.67247.67153456.9430518582953.8590464954390.527857117221729031241212DRYL
2020-06-01 04:02:17FORECAST2020245-4052.8531.4942.17117.692857583330.00691.36692.163.5269TF20.85247.85153456.8802666036253.7715441500150.534655132930539031241212DRYL
2020-06-01 00:00:02FORECAST2020245-4153.8134.8344.32117.631474666670.01111.35112.163.5111TF21.81249.81152456.3212999796453.6777474384160.570692968550069031241212DRYL
2020-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2020245-4153.7631.6642.71118.717246666670.00411.36412.163.5241TF21.76261.76152456.7112164230854.2194981355320.568827824936329031241212DRYL
2020-05-31 16:00:01FORECAST2020245-4153.6432.4143.025118.656840.00711.36712.163.5271TF21.64261.64152456.6895517518754.1893390718930.564345291359479031241212DRYL
2020-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2020245-4153.9434.9544.445117.9119520.00311.36312.163.5231TF21.94261.94152456.422126485653.8176238699070.575534861702199031241212DRYL
2020-05-31 07:59:09FORECAST2020245-4153.8335.4144.62117.9693520.00021.36022.163.5202TF21.83256.83152456.4427518900553.8462556655670.57143858680179031241212DRYL
2020-05-31 04:00:02FORECAST2020245-4153.8734.9144.39117.798862916670.00181.40182.163.5618TF21.87261.87152456.3814816566553.7612195953770.57292905608729031241212DRYL
2020-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2020245-4154.5433.9844.26121.711653333330.00160.08162.162.2416FF22.54234.54152457.7809956587555.7172818462060.59772372561308903121123DRYL
2020-05-30 20:00:01FORECAST2020245-4153.8333.4643.645122.8315920.00150.76152.162.9215FF21.83260.83152458.1790179892756.2788582006180.5714385868017903123129DRYL
2020-05-30 16:00:01FORECAST2020245-4153.3333.3843.355122.754293333330.00220.78222.162.9422FF21.33260.33152458.1515826721956.2400737704730.55272847327583903123129DRYL
2020-05-30 12:00:02FORECAST2020245-4153.8133.8143.81121.6514480.00440.89442.163.0544FF21.81259.81152457.7595668054655.6871141377370.57069296855006903123129DRYL
2020-05-30 08:00:02FORECAST2020245-4154.2435.1844.71120.915798666670.00320.94322.163.1032FF22.24262.24152457.4974626952255.3186710897650.58666388881001903123129DRYL
2020-05-30 03:55:51FORECAST2020245-4154.5935.2344.91120.3094360.00790.95792.163.1179FF22.59261.59152457.2810535489255.0152256459560.59955970683541903123129DRYL
2020-05-30 00:00:02FORECAST2020245-4154.935.1645.03119.912173333330.00441.31442.163.4744TF22.9258.9152457.1390907869754.8165418918890.610892271199639031241212DRYL
2020-05-29 20:00:03FORECAST2020245-4154.3835.144.74122.126357333330.00461.33462.183.5146TF22.38276.38152457.9285120474555.9251410954290.59183427638919031241212DRYL
2020-05-29 16:00:01FORECAST2020245-4155.6935.1245.405121.9547040.00321.28322.183.4632TF23.69279.69152457.8674712474555.8390919272110.639328502887369031241212DRYL
2020-05-29 12:00:02FORECAST2020245-4151.1537.0944.12119.411720.00551.27552.183.4555TF19.15277.15152456.9600485854.5663853722210.470324220732599021241210DRYL
2020-05-29 07:55:42FORECAST2020245-4150.6336.1543.39118.7411240.0060.9362.193.126FF18.63276.63152456.7197790410154.2314199163610.45072332693459902123127.5DRYL
2020-05-29 04:00:04FORECAST2020245-4151.7537.2844.515118.589947250.00120.87122.183.0512FF19.75274.75152456.6655569872454.1559443140090.49302728433231902123127.5DRYL
2020-05-29 00:00:02FORECAST2020245-4157.534.5746.035119.652546666670.00151.10152.183.2815TF25.5271.5152457.0462351478654.6867459798540.701440661784759041241214DRYL
2020-05-28 20:00:02FORECAST2020245-4157.3734.9746.17121.767346666670.00161.05162.23.2516TF25.37291.37152457.8008156406555.7451906223980.697143647405759031241212DRYL
2020-05-28 16:00:03FORECAST2020245-4157.8336.3847.105121.529382666670.00221.02222.193.2122FF25.83293.83152457.7161100957555.6259562965240.712222009321339041241214DRYL
2020-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020245-4156.8937.1747.03119.2482520.02731.23732.183.4173TF24.89292.89152456.9015169325954.4847072303590.681043813439329031241212DRYL
2020-05-28 08:00:02FORECAST2020245-4156.937.247.05118.921782666670.02731.02732.173.1973FF24.9286.9152456.7845479729354.3216327395280.681382875096249031241212DRYL
2020-05-28 04:00:04FORECAST2020245-4156.3236.746.51118.137603416670.02741.05742.173.2274TF24.32292.32152456.5031919456253.9301930485140.661474450910479031241212DRYL
2020-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2020245-4157.0337.1147.07118.784934666670.00480.88482.173.0548FF25.03280.03152456.7354885739154.25329517020.68577678736775903123129DRYL
2020-05-27 20:00:01FORECAST2020245-4157.0437.1247.08120.844630666670.00481.26482.183.4448TF25.04294.04152457.4720802949955.283044583560.686113703999239031241212DRYL
2020-05-27 16:00:03FORECAST2020245-4155.9536.346.125120.8749160.0051.0752.183.255TF23.95289.95152457.4828822616655.2982049648160.648529893898829031241212DRYL
2020-05-27 12:00:03FORECAST2020245-4157.0638.6647.86118.319194666670.00730.60732.172.7773FF25.06291.06152456.56839502254.0208048092560.68678707212431903123129DRYL
2020-05-27 07:59:12FORECAST2020245-4157.0738.6847.875117.9975360.00730.62732.182.8073FF25.07292.07152456.4528780785453.8603149133760.68712352315504903123129DRYL
2020-05-27 04:00:02FORECAST2020245-4157.3637.6747.515117.514669833330.00580.73582.182.9158FF25.36296.36152456.2792895738353.6195100660560.69681196490987903123129DRYL
2020-05-27 00:00:02FORECAST2020245-4157.338.5747.935119.3085720.00250.66252.12.7625FF25.3297.3152456.9231180501554.5148447283510.69481847171293903123129DRYL
2020-05-26 20:00:03FORECAST2020245-4157.3138.647.955120.2410040.00250.50252.112.6125FF25.31311.31152457.2566094217854.9809938025110.69515112402823903123129DRYL
2020-05-26 16:00:02FORECAST2020245-4158.0139.0748.54120.1968880.0070.4472.12.547FF26.01315.01152457.2408487942854.958927091550.71802424969587904122127DRYL
2020-05-26 11:55:51FORECAST2020245-4155.6736.5446.105119.701662666670.01820.43822.12.5382FF23.67306.67152457.0638062125354.7112975483950.63861727171884903122126DRYL
2020-05-26 08:00:03FORECAST2020245-4157.2236.9847.1119.643934666670.01360.42362.112.5336FF25.22297.22152457.043154011354.6824412583750.69215148076969903122126DRYL
2020-05-26 04:00:04FORECAST2020245-4156.7236.746.71119.280191166670.01380.56382.122.6838FF24.72301.72152456.9129550387154.5006646235440.67525678889129903123129DRYL
2020-05-26 00:00:03FORECAST2020245-4156.3737.9547.16118.9129320.00160.52161.862.3816FF24.37304.37152456.7813755640754.3172126513170.66320959167865903123129DRYL
2020-05-25 20:00:02FORECAST2020245-4156.3837.9847.18120.206273333330.00140.52142.062.5814FF24.38310.38152457.2442018921854.9636215127330.66355620508771903123129DRYL
2020-05-25 16:00:03FORECAST2020245-4154.8737.8146.34120.597249333330.0040.3542.092.444FF22.87308.87152457.3838148822955.1592299643910.60979951550137903122126DRYL
2020-05-25 12:00:03FORECAST2020245-4150.9238.6244.77119.5706640.00390.37392.092.4639FF18.92297.92152457.0169370572654.6458186231830.46164287270042902122125DRYL
2020-05-25 08:00:03FORECAST2020245-4140.4238.6839.55119.696397333330.00330.37332.22.5733FF8.42284.42152457.0619226641954.708665501150.13706092308533901122124DRYL
2020-05-25 04:00:04FORECAST2020245-4140.539.5240.01119.828368250.00340.44342.332.7734FF8.5291.5152457.1091245391954.7746405057180.13873614808898901122124DRYL