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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 26, 2024

[ Thursday, April 25, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 27, 2024 ]

DAY 209 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/26/2024 12:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.23°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.290
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 195

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.31 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 116 in
SWE DAY: 116
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.23 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -77

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024209-7737.86828.59833.233115.539659383730.3106300891.3506300890.531.880630089FF5.868194.868116434.701221604850.225231077910.29043295502854162114128DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:01FORECAST2024209-7736.51827.96832.243110.490365372340.3157482021.4657482020.531.995748202FF4.518193.518116432.5946840086147.7975446942430.24679539274748161114126DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:01FORECAST2024209-7735.29427.28431.289111.035949882490.3826773721.5326773720.532.062677372FF3.294192.294116432.8236029262348.0589798824750.21048272593587161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:01FORECAST2024209-7735.90628.50832.207112.836310968940.4208663691.5708663690.532.100866369FF3.906192.906116433.5767602395848.9232021472980.2282338679475161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2024209-7735.88828.16632.027114.437645465780.4751971071.5951971070.532.125197107FF3.888192.888116434.2437694668649.6938345359720.22770006644108161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2024209-7735.6926.9631.325114.465946434060.4401577181.5101577180.532.040157718FF3.69192.69116434.255533383749.7074706229920.22187475836876161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2024209-7735.20427.26631.235112.100592725060.4035435251.3935435250.531.923543525FF3.204188.204116433.2693983039848.5697563595060.20794224625953161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:02FORECAST2024209-7734.8827.6831.28114.215253666750.440945121.420945120.531.95094512FF2.88189.88116434.1512980109449.5867006320680.19894732847597161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2024209-7733.99827.06830.533114.17418752520.4539372531.3539372530.531.883937253FF1.998187.998116434.1342168205749.5669214823790.17567394388041161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2024209-7735.49227.89631.694113.970451744330.4866144361.3766144360.531.906614436FF3.492190.492116434.049447916749.4688116584430.21613535789596161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2024209-7734.7927.64431.217113.172070601420.5145672071.4145672070.531.944567207FF2.79188.79116433.7168401998349.0846328601180.19649089215803161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:03FORECAST2024209-7734.05226.92430.488112.481334565820.4944884561.3444884560.531.874488456FF2.052188.052116433.4285330094148.7526198318030.17704736687632161114126DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2024209-7733.45827.42830.443119.747268618380.5307089481.2807089480.531.810708948FF1.458179.458116436.4360933060452.2620300998730.16231183352255161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2024209-7733.9827.64430.812120.955044034280.5425199781.2325199780.531.762519978FF1.98180.98116436.9306651350452.8489678413350.17521763675051161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 16:00:03FORECAST2024209-7733.81827.75230.785121.380699928540.5307089481.2307089480.531.760708948FF1.818178.818116437.1046056561253.0560629765290.17114466945292161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:02FORECAST2024209-7733.5327.57230.551119.967715635980.4342522031.0542522030.531.584252203FF1.53179.53116436.5264773602352.3690843035270.16405429480645161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2024209-7733.7128.52631.118119.334351601210.4767719110.9267719110.531.456771911FF1.71181.71116436.2666596351552.0615989527850.16846319203485161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2024209-7732.97226.81629.894118.655963726460.3937010.8837010.531.413701FF0.972180.972116435.987908295651.7325654318970.15086573868487161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024209-7733.58426.36629.975119.114840515580.5933074071.1633074070.531.693307407FF1.584174.584116436.1765145194751.9550959636290.16536905415151161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 20:00:03FORECAST2024209-7733.18826.11429.651120.24665657850.5740160581.1040160580.531.634016058FF1.188174.188116436.6407716196952.5045929131230.1558850394448161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2024209-7732.66626.38429.525121.757700864990.5578743171.0978743170.531.627874317FF0.666172.666116437.2585067940353.2395904708980.14394069678622161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2024209-7733.8927.89630.893120.476280702920.5681105431.0881105430.531.618110543FF1.89175.89116436.7347978800152.6161841021260.17294736337551161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2024209-7734.5227.26630.893121.247883816410.5633861311.1733861310.531.703386131FF2.52176.52116437.0503517086952.9914302658940.18923236051166161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2024209-7735.2428.6731.955120.436382929340.5657483371.1557483370.531.685748337FF3.24179.24116436.7184645152452.5967922246710.20895626285856161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024209-7735.29427.89631.595122.893572098591.1224415511.7824415510.532.312441551FF3.294180.294116437.7213077062353.7931350876860.21048272593587161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024209-7734.26827.89631.082121.598998941930.9019689911.4419689910.531.971968991FF2.268175.268116437.1937386915153.1623209685680.18260848232231161114126DRYL
2024-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2024209-7734.0728.3131.19121.65540829250.917323331.477323330.532.00732333FF2.07176.07116437.2167629950253.1897838144820.17750667442392161114126DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:03FORECAST2024209-7737.29228.00432.648120.1105829410.3948821031.1648821030.531.694882103FF5.292178.292116436.5850264370752.4384820286680.27137919368756162114128DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2024209-7737.77828.11232.945118.340458748490.2622048660.7322048660.531.262204866FF5.778176.778116435.8581027504451.5796478287330.28741495786251162113126DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024209-7737.427.80632.603117.336810093630.2169292510.6069292510.531.136929251FF5.4176.4116435.444487610851.0936671491050.27490390160023162113126DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024209-7736.19427.89632.045119.40581779360.1358268450.2658268450.630.895826845FF4.194174.194116436.2959973235952.0962803604980.23686958325187161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 20:00:03FORECAST2024209-7735.29427.73431.514119.834674812460.1901575830.2801575830.610.890157583FF3.294173.294116436.4719362088652.3044725403530.21048272593587161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 16:00:04FORECAST2024209-7735.7828.32832.054119.714631743170.1846457690.2746457690.610.884645769FF3.78173.78116436.422707770752.2461837451270.22451203059197161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024209-7735.83428.61632.225117.95538174498000.630.63FF3.834173.834116435.6995327498551.3931047116180.22610287848865161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024209-7736.78827.78832.288118.49016834244000.620.62FF4.788163.788116435.9197094720151.6521997591270.25523373779335162111122DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024209-7735.97827.26631.622118.55979737779000.580.58FF3.978165.978116435.9483544085951.6859485658640.2303760818846161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024209-7735.99625.17830.587120.2353840489000.610.61FF3.996158.996116436.6361543430552.4991157070730.23091338359298161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:03FORECAST2024209-7737.52626.38431.955121.1597638660.0921260340.0921260340.650.742126034FF5.526162.526116437.0143455592152.9485549140070.27904433560516162112124DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:04FORECAST2024209-7737.5826.40231.991121.232301057750.0901575290.0901575290.730.820157529FF5.58161.58116437.0439851203252.9838479795850.28082803334641162112124DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024209-7736.12227.80631.964122.805785276670.4326773990.5226773990.691.212677399FF4.122169.122116437.6855873149753.7503222544970.23469398963436161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024209-7736.08628.56232.324121.407018394010.3066930790.3466930790.821.166693079FF4.086164.086116437.1153542924553.0688718588860.23361034320788161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:05FORECAST2024209-7735.8726.8731.37122.904187280130.1484252770.1484252770.921.068425277FF3.87161.87116437.7256264757953.7983123736920.22716696720864161112123DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:03FORECAST2024209-7735.8726.8731.37125.386591771350.1484252770.1484252770.921.068425277FF3.87156.87116438.7323978028455.0111600601710.22716696720864161112123DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024209-7739.30830.63234.97123.968062174310.0122047310.1422047310.850.992204731FF7.308160.308116438.15787215354.3175823372250.34060572428346162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024209-7739.90230.5635.231123.072992867160.0409449040.2009449040.770.970944904FF7.902169.902116437.7942891106753.8806534210030.36222338090549162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024209-7739.21829.8434.529123.157609571030.011811030.041811030.920.96181103FF7.218170.218116437.8286963615453.921935645490.33737342204763162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024209-7741.05427.19434.124124.1196977893100.181.021.2FF9.054167.054116438.2193856994554.3916577184330.40536703680363162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:06FORECAST2024209-7739.8327.51833.674124.0043871809600.161.051.21FF7.83163.83116438.1726101630854.3353260027530.35957788504361162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024209-7737.9427.78832.864124.78603526660.0448819140.1548819140.840.994881914FF5.94167.94116438.4894161135154.7173557431730.29285797150386162112124DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024209-7738.3928.36433.377123.2448932967300.040.690.73FF6.39169.39116437.8641803421853.9645241847340.30822265579168162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024209-7739.90228.86834.385122.5168714452300.040.650.69FF7.902176.902116437.5679722389153.6094590033430.36222338090549162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024209-7742.15229.96636.059123.90982289386000.790.79FF10.152162.152116438.13424010854.2891360955190.44759664569394162111122DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:04FORECAST2024209-7749.22632.46840.847124.158778410430.1783465530.5583465530.851.408346553FF17.226172.226116438.2352355734554.4107515052080.71308623015982164113129DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:05FORECAST2024209-7749.13630.39839.767123.882274834510.1783465530.5483465530.821.368346553FF17.136171.136116438.1230605758354.2756814015930.71007070323703164113129DRYL
2024-04-17 00:00:04FORECAST2024209-7737.29236.84237.067121.39721114725000.630.63FF5.292172.292116437.1113490316453.0640987332540.27137919368756162111122DRYL
2024-04-16 20:00:04FORECAST2024209-7737.05829.40833.233120.936229635960.0137795350.1937795350.570.763779535FF5.058180.058116436.9229724566352.839816930240.26382030794121162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024209-7737.63429.40833.521121.017691508410.0137795350.1637795350.60.763779535FF5.634179.634116436.9562772757352.8794399660190.28261721928508162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 12:00:04FORECAST2024209-7742.58437.2239.902120.5294137437400.180.650.83FF10.584195.584116436.7565469334252.6420105506240.46440387087552162112124DRYL
2024-04-16 08:00:05FORECAST2024209-7739.0236.19437.607120.7964969009800.540.641.18FF7.02190.02116436.8658281651452.7718616580940.33030470876994162113126DRYL
2024-04-16 04:00:06FORECAST2024209-7739.05637.95838.507121.596499840600.530.671.2FF7.056182.056116437.1927185703453.1611043339510.33158552908071162113126DRYL