MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 28, 2020

[ Tuesday, October 27, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 29, 2020 ]

DAY 28 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/28/2020 12:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.83°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.779
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 124

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 66
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 108

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20212810851.836.8344.31500.00980.00987.967.9698TT19.8123.866333.2416650586200.778751969941259045115225WETH
2020-10-27 20:00:01FORECAST20212810851.3837.4344.40500.00580.01587.967.9758TT19.38134.3866333.2416650586200.76675237517459045115225WETH
2020-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20212810851.9236.8844.400.00460.01467.967.9746TT19.92134.9266333.2416650586200.782114547163349045115225WETH
2020-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST2021281085238.5845.2900.00420.01427.967.9742TT2013566333.2416650586200.784339826456729045115225WETH
2020-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20212810852.538.8645.6800.00150.01157.967.9715TT20.5135.566333.2416650586200.797946752706839045115225WETH
2020-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20212810853.138.9646.0300.00140.01147.967.9714TT21.1131.166333.2416650586200.813579761284639045115225WETH
2020-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20212810852.7438.6845.7100.0020.0127.967.972TT20.74129.7466333.2416650586200.804291712896099045115225WETH
2020-10-26 20:00:45FORECAST20212810851.9837.0344.50500.00090.00097.967.9609TT19.98142.9866333.2416650586200.78378474306749045115225WETH
2020-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20212810852.3538.1345.2400.00020.00027.967.9602TT20.35143.3566333.2416650586200.793919502519379045115225WETH
2020-10-26 11:58:41FORECAST20212810851.9439.1745.55500.00610.00617.967.9661TT19.94143.9466333.2416650586200.782672102650819045115225WETH
2020-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20212810852.338.4645.3800.00640.00647.967.9664TT20.3143.366333.2416650586200.792566601472989045115225WETH
2020-10-26 04:00:47FORECAST20212810852.5638.3345.44500.00640.00647.967.9664TT20.56145.5666333.2416650586200.799544401155549045115225WETH
2020-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20212810853.6538.1945.9200.00640.00647.967.9664TT21.65148.6566333.2416650586200.827233377619549045115225WETH
2020-10-25 20:00:02FORECAST20212810851.2537.5344.3900.00740.00747.967.9674TT19.25152.2566333.2416650586200.762966424363999045115225WETH
2020-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20212810851.2537.5344.3900.00740.00747.967.9674TT19.25152.2566333.2416650586200.762966424363999045115225WETH
2020-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20212810854.7640.1147.43500.00880.00887.967.9688TT22.76154.7666333.2416650586200.852796550631329055115227.5WETH
2020-10-25 07:58:45FORECAST20212810854.7740.3147.5400.01260.01267.967.9726TT22.77156.7766333.2416650586200.853014715912329055115227.5WETH
2020-10-25 04:00:04FORECAST20212810854.7840.3147.54500.01290.01297.967.9729TT22.78156.7866333.2416650586200.853232664850239055115227.5WETH
2020-10-25 00:00:41FORECAST20212810852.8536.7644.80500.01220.01227.927.9322TT20.85137.8566333.2416650586200.807159028671829045115225WETH
2020-10-24 20:00:02FORECAST20212810852.8736.7444.80500.01220.01227.937.9422TT20.87142.8766333.2416650586200.807677594107779045115225WETH
2020-10-24 16:00:03FORECAST20212810852.8836.7144.79500.01220.01227.937.9422TT20.88142.8866333.2416650586200.807936557413689045115225WETH
2020-10-24 12:00:03FORECAST20212810856.9839.6548.31500.01490.01497.937.9449TT24.98152.9866333.2416650586200.895991117327269055115227.5WETH
2020-10-24 08:00:02FORECAST20212810856.9939.6448.31500.01490.01497.947.9549TT24.99153.9966333.2416650586200.89616234358239055115227.5WETH
2020-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST2021281085739.6448.3200.01490.01497.977.9849TT2515766333.2416650586200.896333365945839055115227.5WETH
2020-10-23 23:58:51FORECAST20212810852.538.9545.72500.02640.03646.166.1964TF20.5154.566333.2416650586200.797946752706839045115225WETMH
2020-10-23 20:00:02FORECAST20212810854.6240.4547.53500.01360.02366.156.1736TF22.62157.6266333.2416650586200.849719510688079055115227.5WETMH
2020-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20212810851.6739.2245.44500.01360.02366.166.1836TF19.67153.6766333.2416650586200.775075967397599045115225WETMH
2020-10-23 12:00:02FORECAST20212810845.6237.3141.46500.10130.10136.166.2613TF13.62142.6266333.2416650586200.572438495479549035125245WETMH
2020-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20212810849.3636.5842.9700.01530.01536.476.4853TF17.36146.3666333.2416650586200.704309759236689045115225WETMH
2020-10-23 04:00:04FORECAST20212810848.7537.8943.3200.01530.01536.626.6353TF16.75147.7566333.2416650586200.684050449463679035115222.5WETMH
2020-10-22 23:58:56FORECAST20212810852.7540.546.62500.01120.01126.556.5612TF20.75157.7566333.2416650586200.804553440122259045115225WETMH
2020-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20212810852.7540.546.62500.01120.01126.616.6212TF20.75151.7566333.2416650586200.804553440122259045115225WETMH
2020-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20212810852.7540.546.62500.01120.01126.616.6212TF20.75151.7566333.2416650586200.804553440122259045115225WETMH
2020-10-22 12:00:04FORECAST20212810852.7540.546.62500.01120.01126.746.7512TT20.75158.7566333.2416650586200.804553440122259045115225WETH
2020-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20212810857.7442.9250.330006.676.67TF25.74166.7466333.2416650586200.908429802161689055115227.5WETMH
2020-10-22 04:00:04FORECAST20212810857.743.2550.4750006.776.77TT25.7169.766333.2416650586200.907803829037269055115227.5WETH
2020-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20212810858.6643.6651.1600.00110.00116.636.6311TF26.66165.6666333.2416650586200.921973717696979055115227.5WETMH
2020-10-21 20:00:03FORECAST20212810858.6643.6651.1600.00110.00116.896.8911TT26.66173.6666333.2416650586200.921973717696979055115227.5WETH
2020-10-21 16:00:05FORECAST20212810858.7943.8951.3400.00070.00076.866.8607TT26.79176.7966333.2416650586200.923758512620469055115227.5WETH
2020-10-21 12:00:02FORECAST20212810850.2740.9645.61500.00020.01026.676.6802TF18.27163.2766333.2416650586200.733370250027479045115225WETMH
2020-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20212810843.9940.9642.475000.016.526.53TF11.99153.9966333.2416650586200.511247328516899035115222.5WETMH
2020-10-21 04:00:04FORECAST20212810842.2141.5841.895000.016.596.6TF10.21148.2166333.2416650586200.444171910826089025115220WETMH