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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 23, 2019

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DAY 327 OF WATER YEAR 2019, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/23/2019 12:00:11 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.49°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.682
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 552

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.71 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 234
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 42

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-08-23 12:00:11FORECAST20193274266.5952.3959.4900.01650.70650.691.3965FF34.59551.59235458.6543426933800.68208823657199233435275DRYVH
2019-08-23 08:00:11FORECAST20193274266.3749.6758.0200.0260.7160.691.406FF34.37551.37235458.6543426933800.674618937316059233435275DRYVH
2019-08-23 04:00:11FORECAST20193274262.1850.856.4900.02150.71150.691.4015FF30.18547.18235458.6543426933800.522233951882529233435275DRYVH
2019-08-23 00:00:15FORECAST20193274267.2948.1957.7400.00360.42360.691.1136FF35.29549.29234458.1242025673100.705354797672859243425255DRYH
2019-08-22 20:00:11FORECAST20193274266.5450.7458.6400.00320.43320.691.1232FF34.54560.54234458.1242025673100.680397014907289233425250DRYMH
2019-08-22 16:00:11FORECAST20193274266.8649.9958.42500.0020.4320.691.122FF34.86560.86234458.1242025673100.691154668656049233425250DRYMH
2019-08-22 12:00:11FORECAST20193274266.2451.6958.96500.0020.4320.691.122FF34.24560.24234458.1242025673100.670171836051659233425250DRYMH
2019-08-22 08:00:11FORECAST20193274265.8250.5958.20500.00230.43230.691.1223FF33.82554.82234458.1242025673100.655641909925169233425250DRYMH
2019-08-22 04:00:12FORECAST20193274265.9350.4958.2100.00180.45180.691.1418FF33.93559.93234458.1242025673100.659470702712459233425250DRYMH
2019-08-22 00:00:12FORECAST20193274265.6649.8157.73500.00080.03080.690.7208FF33.66550.66234458.1242025673100.650044275771089233415225DRYL
2019-08-21 20:00:11FORECAST20193274265.6850.357.9900.00150.31150.691.0015FF33.68558.68234458.1242025673100.650745795234739233425250DRYMH
2019-08-21 16:00:11FORECAST20193274265.5850.7258.1500.00230.32230.691.0123FF33.58559.58234458.1242025673100.647233097052029233425250DRYMH
2019-08-21 12:00:11FORECAST20193274265.7550.4558.100.00170.30170.690.9917FF33.75559.75234458.1242025673100.653197048683139233425250DRYMH
2019-08-21 08:00:11FORECAST20193274264.9151.2858.09500.00370.44370.691.1337FF32.91559.91234458.1242025673100.62338675937989233425250DRYMH
2019-08-21 04:00:11FORECAST20193274265.3251.5358.42500.00370.44370.691.1337FF33.32556.32234458.1242025673100.638041838876829233425250DRYMH
2019-08-21 00:00:13FORECAST20193274264.8150.2857.54500.00180.33180.691.0218FF32.81543.81234458.1242025673100.619784282331979233425250DRYMH
2019-08-20 20:00:12FORECAST20193274264.445057.2200.00130.35130.71.0513FF32.44556.44234458.1242025673100.606366851910249233425250DRYMH
2019-08-20 16:00:11FORECAST20193274263.7749.1656.46500.00070.36070.71.0607FF31.77554.77234458.1242025673100.581756708964789233425250DRYMH
2019-08-20 12:00:11FORECAST20193274256.9848.5852.7800.01330.42330.71.1233FF24.98550.98234458.1242025673100.331105338164429223425245DRYM
2019-08-20 08:00:11FORECAST20193274258.7148.5853.64500.00190.51190.71.2119FF26.71553.71234458.1242025673100.392438493584999223435267.5DRYH
2019-08-20 04:00:11FORECAST20193274262.9448.5855.7600.00180.50180.71.2018FF30.94558.94234458.1242025673100.550830399138659233435275DRYVH
2019-08-20 00:00:13FORECAST20193274264.3449.2956.81500.00320.52320.71.2232FF32.34544.34234458.1242025673100.602717995673279233435275DRYVH
2019-08-19 20:00:11FORECAST20193274264.3249.2756.79500.00320.58320.71.2832FF32.32557.32234458.1242025673100.60198713348059233435275DRYVH
2019-08-19 16:00:11FORECAST20193274263.8648.7756.31500.00310.47310.71.1731FF31.86557.86234458.1242025673100.585083504304059233425250DRYMH
2019-08-19 12:00:11FORECAST20193274266.651.7659.1800.00370.48370.71.1837FF34.6554.6234458.1242025673100.682426027472339233425250DRYMH
2019-08-19 08:00:11FORECAST20193274266.6151.7459.17500.00370.45370.711.1637FF34.61550.61234458.1242025673100.682763666680459233425250DRYMH
2019-08-19 04:00:12FORECAST20193274268.2250.4859.3500.00370.37370.691.0637FF36.22561.22234458.1242025673100.7349905591963692434251110DRYVH
2019-08-19 00:00:13FORECAST20193274265.4151.4358.4200.00150.67150.711.3815FF33.41551.41234458.1242025673100.641232760775849233435275DRYVH
2019-08-18 20:00:12FORECAST20193274265.4451.4258.4300.00150.74150.731.4715FF33.44560.44234458.1242025673100.642294228609679233435275DRYVH
2019-08-18 16:00:11FORECAST20193274268.1350.6159.3700.00150.55150.721.2715FF36.13571.13234458.1242025673100.7321899997236292434351165DRYVH
2019-08-18 12:00:11FORECAST20193274267.5850.7759.17500.00120.45120.721.1712FF35.58567.58234458.1242025673100.714758406431769243425255DRYH
2019-08-18 08:00:13FORECAST20193274267.5950.7959.1900.00120.37120.721.0912FF35.59568.59234458.1242025673100.715080104943259243425255DRYH
2019-08-18 04:00:13FORECAST20193274265.9150.3858.14500.00120.21120.730.9412FF33.91563.91234458.1242025673100.658775764930599233425250DRYMH
2019-08-18 00:00:13FORECAST20193274268.0651.2759.66500.0020.2220.640.862FF36.06563.06234458.1242025673100.7300015392032992434251110DRYVH
2019-08-17 20:00:11FORECAST20193274267.5851.2159.39500.00250.14250.650.7925FF35.58574.58234458.1242025673100.714758406431769243425255DRYH
2019-08-17 16:00:11FORECAST20193274264.5651.6358.09500.00250.07250.680.7525FF32.56569.56234458.1242025673100.610733158386569233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 12:00:11FORECAST20193274264.8652.158.4800.00080.03080.680.7108FF32.86569.86234458.1242025673100.621586841364969233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 08:00:11FORECAST20193274264.8652.1158.48500.00080.03080.680.7108FF32.86562.86234458.1242025673100.621586841364969233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST2019327426751.9759.48500.00080.00080.690.6908FF35579234458.1242025673100.69581081838069233415225DRYL
2019-08-17 00:00:13FORECAST20193274273.4955.3664.42500.00140.03140.640.6714FF41.49583.49234458.1242025673100.870232933247119253415160DRYH
2019-08-16 20:00:11FORECAST20193274273.5155.3664.43500.00140.03140.640.6714FF41.51594.51234458.1242025673100.870633275984139253415160DRYH
2019-08-16 16:00:11FORECAST20193274269.7453.8361.78500.02280.66280.651.3128FF37.74574.74234458.1242025673100.7799440332065992434351165DRYVH
2019-08-16 12:00:12FORECAST20193274260.152.5256.3100.01031.05030.681.7303FF28.1577.1234458.1242025673100.443821467599749223445290DRYVH
2019-08-16 08:00:11FORECAST20193274254.0652.5153.28500.00831.04830.671.7183FF22.06565.06234458.1242025673100.237762501631559213445280DRYVH
2019-08-16 04:00:12FORECAST20193274253.4852.3652.9200.00021.09020.641.7302FF21.48566.48234458.1242025673100.221101439736099213445280DRYVH