Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 26, 2020

[ Saturday, January 25, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, January 27, 2020 ]

DAY 118 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/26/2020 12:00:11 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.328
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -53

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.42 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.48 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.08 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 376.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -167

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-01-26 12:00:11FORECAST2020118-16729.7627.8228.79129.537571370530.42261.482611.613.0826TT-2.24-53.2426376.1802358699648.7294741521860.32791675252295882114128WETL
2020-01-26 08:00:10FORECAST2020118-16731.0728.0829.575129.65256164840.46751.527511.613.1275TT-0.93-51.9326376.2449852815548.7811261491160.388993876477238821151210WETL
2020-01-26 04:00:11FORECAST2020118-16737.1727.932.535129.769132673230.65931.719311.613.3193TT5.17-45.8326376.3106054889648.8335008900390.684549478718388831151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 00:00:12FORECAST2020118-16738.242833.12123.811175131830.90181.391811.612.9918TT6.24-44.7626372.9317441413546.1731174861030.730459022645058841141212WETL
2020-01-25 20:00:10FORECAST2020118-16734.3827.9431.16124.904060672331.04371.583711.613.1837TT2.38-45.6226373.5553741314246.6585831149850.552409669458818831151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 16:00:10FORECAST2020118-16733.4827.9530.715125.567814937721.26521.805211.613.4052TT1.48-46.5226373.9332861181646.9539856703380.507685961552398831151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 12:00:11FORECAST2020118-16735.7327.7331.73124.867498415851.33821.878211.613.4782TT3.73-44.2726373.5345386977546.6423234191060.618094181629448831151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 08:00:11FORECAST2020118-16734.6828.0931.385125.714615951941.54092.220911.613.8209TT2.68-45.3226374.0167820439547.0193761142370.567198682667348831151212.5WETL
2020-01-25 04:00:12FORECAST2020118-16732.8827.9130.395127.041123495911.50192.471911.614.0719TT0.88-51.1226374.769848921547.6111826593780.477781336742458821151210WETL
2020-01-25 00:00:12FORECAST2020118-16733.9827.6730.825136.181422580991.46272.242711.613.8427TT1.98-48.0226379.8904479314451.7340216242340.532580635300838831151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 16:00:10FORECAST2020118-16735.3128.0431.675136.743422494211.76782.657811.614.2578TT3.31-43.6926380.2014301455551.9900447952940.59792741495738831151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 12:00:11FORECAST2020118-16735.6728.0231.845135.628609980971.60872.488711.614.0887TT3.67-43.3326379.5841161094151.4824660387730.615231355462048831151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 08:00:11FORECAST2020118-16736.6828.0832.38132.394408707751.65452.674511.614.2745TT4.68-45.3226377.7832925955150.0163956428510.662470504112188831151212.5WETL
2020-01-24 04:00:11FORECAST2020118-16733.2928.931.095130.911180730951.42992.779911.614.3799TT1.29-48.7126376.9524610644349.347291757380.498212853331758821151210WETL
2020-01-24 00:00:13FORECAST2020118-16734.0528.4531.25133.203087924611.33783.02789.0812.1078TT2.05-46.9526378.2349582345550.3820643978780.536057971408978831151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 20:00:11FORECAST2020118-16734.6727.9931.33133.232377538921.43583.175810.3613.5358TT2.67-38.3326378.2512997437350.3953199720410.566707110743738831151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 16:00:10FORECAST2020118-16737.4927.7932.64134.065334630741.5023.12210.3613.482TT5.49-38.5126378.7155216650250.7726231418750.698627053337088831151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 12:00:11FORECAST2020118-16734.0828.3731.225133.329785570481.43233.442310.3613.8023TT2.08-36.9226378.3056377121250.439409556260.537547431161778831151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 08:00:10FORECAST2020118-16735.1327.2931.21133.446212503421.49763.547610.8814.4276TT3.13-33.8726378.3705675241350.4921191588640.589200591584218831151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 04:00:12FORECAST2020118-16734.6927.7831.235133.423187887441.65973.899711.4815.3797TT2.69-38.3126378.3577285132750.481694300090.567690150631288831151212.5WETL
2020-01-23 00:00:12FORECAST2020118-16737.6127.7832.695131.582008341071.52353.623510.3613.9835TT5.61-34.3926377.3286134921149.6496567678430.703832316997028841151215WETL
2020-01-22 20:00:10FORECAST2020118-16737.1628.5332.845129.76250957251.28123.321211.4214.7412TT5.16-33.8426376.3068777310548.8305248237740.684105066707658831151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 16:00:10FORECAST2020118-16734.3828.2431.31130.04391808141.4493.53911.314.839TT2.38-39.6226376.465210940748.9570110520710.552409669458818831151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 12:00:11FORECAST2020118-16734.3828.2431.31130.770810637111.4493.67911.4715.149TT2.38-38.6226376.8736703752449.2840753827540.552409669458818831151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 08:00:10FORECAST2020118-16734.2627.831.03130.968258814341.41883.518811.5315.0488TT2.26-43.7426376.9844913481449.3730024318760.546472412719718831151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 04:00:12FORECAST2020118-16736.0427.9131.975130.019546347781.27963.349611.6414.9896TT4.04-38.9626376.4515027721948.9460536123810.632779633027178831151212.5WETL
2020-01-22 00:00:12FORECAST2020118-16736.0627.9231.99130.392824232091.27963.429610.4913.9196TT4.06-46.9426376.6613643082849.1139390712670.633720707619978831151212.5WETL
2020-01-21 20:00:11FORECAST2020118-16735.6826.8231.25129.149366012141.06283.032811.1114.1428TT3.68-53.3226375.9615031346348.5551897748060.615708934261618831151212.5WETL
2020-01-21 16:00:11FORECAST2020118-16732.8227.3430.08127.776483943370.91772.697711.2413.9377TT0.82-53.1826375.186225905647.9399767701990.474794969761028821151210WETL
2020-01-21 12:00:11FORECAST2020118-16736.327.9832.14131.145323209610.26741.917411.2213.1374TT4.3-46.726377.0838243374849.4527800198560.644949484447038831151212.5WETL
2020-01-21 08:00:12FORECAST2020118-16737.9227.6332.775131.352666973240.31141.721411.4413.1614TT5.92-41.0826377.2000872562849.5462374436540.717084736992468841151215WETL
2020-01-21 04:00:11FORECAST2020118-16736.4527.7732.11132.464884961490.41452.064511.6913.7545TT4.45-48.5526377.8226920913150.0482394437150.651904825155458831151212.5WETL
2020-01-21 00:00:13FORECAST2020118-16738.3228.4733.395137.674600619590.29732.207311.3313.5373TT6.32-45.6826380.71572071952.4148847995860.733752458749898841151215WETL
2020-01-20 20:00:11FORECAST2020118-16738.3328.4833.405138.480572034810.29732.197311.8914.0873TT6.33-36.6726381.1598785063852.7832380122820.734162703277988841151215WETL
2020-01-20 16:00:11FORECAST2020118-16738.7127.2232.965137.820244179990.05762.207611.8214.0276TT6.71-31.2926380.7960498487352.4814045729280.749511293777448841151215WETL
2020-01-20 12:00:11FORECAST2020118-16733.5426.2129.875137.414784108610.20062.440612.1914.6306TT1.54-39.4626380.5723461386552.2962667823520.510676822136758831151212.5WETL
2020-01-20 08:00:11FORECAST2020118-16734.0328.5931.31138.110892425140.28552.195512.0714.2655TT2.03-45.9726380.956266942252.6142100023390.535064716109848831151212.5WETL
2020-01-20 04:00:11FORECAST2020118-16732.6230.1631.39133.909497595041.39942.879411.6414.5194TT0.62-44.3826378.6287455612250.7019850931440.464851574083518821151210WETL
2020-01-20 00:00:13FORECAST2020118-16732.9230.2331.575138.576553716161.39942.879411.4114.2894TT0.92-51.0826381.2127118923552.8271438468340.479772951809688821151210WETL
2020-01-19 20:00:11FORECAST2020118-16732.8630.9431.9138.320168181220.83982.619811.2713.8898TT0.86-44.1426381.0715550001552.7098815766980.476785734132358821151210WETL
2020-01-19 16:00:10FORECAST2020118-16732.9530.5331.74138.068488291080.62612.316110.9413.2561TT0.95-41.0526380.9328994335152.5948295651220.481266997295838821151210WETL
2020-01-19 12:00:11FORECAST2020118-16732.9730.5631.765138.294186014790.4482.13811.0713.208TT0.97-44.0326381.0572449991952.6980015222010.482263175116238821151210WETL
2020-01-19 08:00:11FORECAST2020118-16736.132.834.45137.644682201710.3562.40610.3812.786TT4.1-38.926380.6992156544152.401222553190.635600442087278831151212.5WETL
2020-01-19 04:00:11FORECAST2020118-16736.5736.436.485137.870427581380.31932.13931012.1393TT4.57-48.4326380.8237214223752.5043293056370.657432691692158831151212.5WETL