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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 4, 2020

[ Monday, August 3, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 5, 2020 ]

DAY 309 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/04/2020 12:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.788
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 602

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 6 in
SWE DAY: 216
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.55 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 23

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 1
HSdry: 33.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20203092371.5555.2163.385.64813066666670.02680.026800.0268FF39.55601.55217450.920453135842.54685763958370.788403514247499542513133DRYL
2020-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20203092371.4151.2261.3155.1524680.02720.027200.0272FF39.41601.41217450.735291826482.32239916760660.784035319243379542514144DRYM
2020-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20203092371.6647.4759.5655.13322766666670.02620.026200.0262FF39.66601.66217450.728099645722.31368995124550.791799162373659542514144DRYM
2020-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20203092371.1347.5559.341.32847733333330.00890.008900.0089FF39.13588.13216448.733167677740.596131841974740.775144226094239542414140DRYM
2020-08-03 19:58:25FORECAST20203092371.3549.860.5753.4193880.00750.047500.0475FF39.35603.35216449.523279795071.53709450865190.782147387637749542514144DRYM
2020-08-03 15:52:40FORECAST20203092371.5649.9560.7553.398560.00480.044800.0448FF39.56603.56216449.5154299961.52770515976720.788713540180259542514144DRYM
2020-08-03 11:58:24FORECAST20203092371.3551.7561.551.544540.00290.042900.0429FF39.35603.35216448.815007853040.693212732229340.782147387637749542514144DRYM
2020-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20203092371.1852.0361.6051.30356933333330.0020.04200.042FF39.18598.18216448.723730142660.584942493752910.776746947490549542414140DRYM
2020-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20203092371.3352.0661.6950.685232750.00280.032800.0328FF39.33603.33216448.489253550980.307319524556190.7815159720879542514144DRYM
2020-08-03 00:04:00FORECAST20203092371.3852.461.8900.00160.031600.0316FF39.38588.38216448.2289790267900.78309253856459542415150DRYMH
2020-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20203092371.4552.0561.7500.00130.041300.0413FF39.45604.45216448.2289790267900.785288666646629542515155DRYH
2020-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20203092371.0349.3760.200.0050.05500.055FF39.03605.03216448.2289790267900.771919329576559542515155DRYH
2020-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20203092370.9152.5361.7200.0040.03400.034FF38.91604.91216448.2289790267900.768015408051449542515155DRYH
2020-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20203092371.0452.0261.5300.00250.032500.0325FF39.04604.04216448.2289790267900.772242983092069542515155DRYH
2020-08-02 03:52:45FORECAST20203092371.4352.4361.9300.00140.021400.0214FF39.43605.43216448.2289790267900.784662521044029542515155DRYH
2020-08-02 00:00:05FORECAST20203092372.0753.1262.59500.00210.022100.0221FF40.07609.07216448.2289790267900.804169875273779542515155DRYH
2020-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20203092372.0653.5362.79500.00160.02160.010.0316FF40.06625.06216448.2289790267900.80387354892319542515155DRYH
2020-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20203092372.2853.2562.76500.00070.00070.010.0107FF40.28626.28216448.2289790267900.810329928513819542515155DRYH
2020-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20203092367.7153.3460.52500.00150.00150.010.0115FF35.71621.71216448.2289790267900.651566659389269532515225DRYL
2020-08-01 08:00:04FORECAST20203092367.7153.3760.5400.0020.0020.020.022FF35.71616.71216448.2289790267900.651566659389269532515225DRYL
2020-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20203092373.2353.5163.3700.00050.00050.020.0205FF41.23627.23216448.2289790267900.836684514406249542515155DRYH
2020-07-31 23:52:33FORECAST20203092372.2849.9261.100.00050.01050.030.0405FF40.28624.28216448.2289790267900.810329928513819542515155DRYH
2020-07-31 19:52:12FORECAST20203092372.2850.1961.23500.00040.01040.030.0404FF40.28622.28216448.2289790267900.810329928513819542515155DRYH
2020-07-31 16:00:04FORECAST20203092372.3951.4261.90500.00040.01040.020.0304FF40.39624.39216448.2289790267900.813508617982919542515155DRYH
2020-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20203092369.8149.7359.7700.00130.05130.020.0713FF37.81613.81216448.2289790267900.730554017861989542515155DRYH
2020-07-31 08:03:55FORECAST20203092369.8149.7359.7700.00130.07130.010.0813FF37.81611.81216448.2289790267900.730554017861989542515155DRYH
2020-07-31 04:00:03FORECAST20203092369.7848.7159.24500.00060.07060.020.0906FF37.78613.78216448.2289790267900.729491512381919542515155DRYH
2020-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20203092369.9349.9759.9500.00260.05260.040.0926FF37.93606.93216448.2289790267900.734783038201919542515155DRYH
2020-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20203092369.9349.9759.9500.00260.05260.050.1026FF37.93619.93216448.2289790267900.734783038201919542515155DRYH
2020-07-30 16:00:03FORECAST20203092369.8351.2960.5600.00270.05270.050.1027FF37.83622.83216448.2289790267900.731261192260099542515155DRYH
2020-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20203092366.7348.3157.5200.01220.10220.040.1422FF34.73614.73216448.2289790267900.612020399973979532525250DRYMH
2020-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20203092366.7348.3157.5200.01220.10220.040.1422FF34.73613.73216448.2289790267900.612020399973979532525250DRYMH
2020-07-30 03:52:17FORECAST20203092368.9848.9158.94500.00730.06730.040.1073FF36.98620.98216448.2289790267900.700411134755259542515155DRYH
2020-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20203092362.9847.1355.05500.00880.17880.090.2688FF30.98617.98216448.2289790267900.453407255504419522525245DRYM
2020-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20203092362.9847.1355.05500.00880.17880.070.2488FF30.98634.98216448.2289790267900.453407255504419522525245DRYM
2020-07-29 15:58:27FORECAST20203092365.1846.5255.8500.00040.02040.120.1404FF33.18635.18216448.2289790267900.547193884611489532515225DRYL
2020-07-29 11:52:57FORECAST20203092365.8348.3157.0700.00080.07080.10.1708FF33.83631.83216448.2289790267900.574637502177979532515225DRYL
2020-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20203092365.8348.3157.0700.00080.07080.110.1808FF33.83631.83216448.2289790267900.574637502177979532515225DRYL
2020-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20203092363.2145.2854.24500.0040.0740.10.174FF31.21634.21216448.2289790267900.463180909144659522515222.5DRYL
2020-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20203092367.8448.9458.3900.00960.05960.080.1396FF35.84622.84216448.2289790267900.656701554845179532515225DRYL
2020-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20203092367.8448.9458.3900.00930.05930.080.1393FF35.84638.84216448.2289790267900.656701554845179532515225DRYL
2020-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20203092366.3247.3956.85500.00380.05380.060.1138FF34.32637.32216448.2289790267900.595096609729149532515225DRYL
2020-07-28 11:58:30FORECAST20203092354.346.4550.37500.00280.01280.060.0728FF22.3627.3216448.2289790267900.147565071046619512515220DRYL
2020-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20203092348.6446.4547.54500.00250.01250.060.0725FF16.64614.64216448.2289790267900.04902135377179512515220DRYL
2020-07-28 04:00:03FORECAST20203092347.8646.5947.22500.00410.02410.080.1041FF15.86610.86216448.2289790267900.0410810164721319512515220DRYL