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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 19, 2021

[ Sunday, April 18, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 20, 2021 ]

DAY 201 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/19/2021 12:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.722
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 171

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 186 in
SWE DAY: 108
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.85 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 85.26 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -83

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-19 11:59:38FORECAST2021201-8347.3537.7142.53186.222421333330.00830.00831.061.0683FF15.35171.35109457.8450645341885.2610165130710.72234394878955894111123DRYL
2021-04-19 08:02:01FORECAST2021201-8347.8736.442.135186.109425333330.0110.0111.061.071FF15.87171.87109457.8048616205285.2017997110010.73905227616616894111123DRYL
2021-04-19 04:00:07FORECAST2021201-8350.235.5642.88186.118212666670.0070.0071.061.067FF18.2174.2109457.8079884848385.2064045613190.80708977599391894111123DRYL
2021-04-19 00:00:06FORECAST2021201-8448.4433.3840.91189.881574666670.00940.00941.061.0694FF16.44158.44108458.6124512512387.0820544053230.75675507373605894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2021201-8448.4632.6240.54190.87367927560.01020.02021.061.0802FF16.46176.46108458.9630064361787.6039576898610.75736423177725894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2021201-8448.336.6942.495190.784322666670.00650.01651.061.0765FF16.3176.3108458.9314689132987.5569294470410.75246794982407894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 12:00:06FORECAST2021201-8448.936.7542.825189.625881333330.00360.01361.061.0736FF16.9176.9108458.5219600291686.9476307812170.77055480938363894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 08:00:06FORECAST2021201-8447.9237.142.51189.3992880.00580.01581.061.0758FF15.92170.92108458.4417183178786.8285350389020.74063120009208894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 03:59:44FORECAST2021201-8448.8237.243.01189.085686666670.00570.01571.061.0757FF16.82169.82108458.3305889340286.6637541289260.76818678331552894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 00:00:06FORECAST2021201-8448.8734.2241.545189.705294666670.00360.00361.061.0636FF16.87168.87108458.5500711197886.9893763611990.7696683892749894111123DRYL
2021-04-17 20:00:06FORECAST2021201-8449.2436.5542.895190.668121333330.00740.01741.061.0774FF17.24182.24108458.8904461049787.4957792566490.78046650118488894111123DRYL
2021-04-17 15:56:09FORECAST2021201-8449.3336.5842.955190.630674666670.00470.01471.061.0747FF17.33182.33108458.877223647387.4760747330520.78304849162177894111123DRYL
2021-04-17 12:00:06FORECAST2021201-8449.437.2843.34189.153526666670.00520.01521.061.0752FF17.4182.4108458.3546365697686.6993959711880.78504453746839894111123DRYL
2021-04-17 08:00:06FORECAST2021201-8449.7634.8142.285188.887190666670.00580.01581.061.0758FF17.76183.76108458.2602031086186.5594823595210.79514038702027894111123DRYL
2021-04-17 03:59:44FORECAST2021201-8450.0337.5443.785188.251936916670.00430.00431.061.0643FF18.03186.03108458.0347062031486.2259206177970.80252420260407894111123DRYL
2021-04-17 00:00:06FORECAST2021201-8449.8937.1843.535190.2044040.00440.01441.061.0744FF17.89172.89108458.7266183476187.2518230417430.79871580408865894111123DRYL
2021-04-16 20:00:06FORECAST2021201-8452.0337.2844.655191.2368760.00610.00611.071.0761FF20.03185.03108459.0911194445487.7951514819160.85208430805456895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-16 16:00:06FORECAST2021201-8451.8137.7644.785191.109721333330.00620.00621.071.0762FF19.81184.81108459.0462807038687.7282067844170.84707960826249894111123DRYL
2021-04-16 12:00:06FORECAST2021201-8445.6935.2940.49190.2609120.00760.00761.071.0776FF13.69179.69108458.7465925141387.2815450686310.66577425577731893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-16 08:00:06FORECAST2021201-8450.8937.9344.41189.8328720.00840.00841.071.0784FF18.89186.89108458.5952196507987.056447631780.82495135681112894111123DRYL
2021-04-16 04:00:08FORECAST2021201-8447.236.4641.83189.549737416670.01150.01151.071.0815FF15.2183.2108458.4950009359886.9076070342690.71742903881868894111123DRYL
2021-04-15 23:59:43FORECAST2021201-8451.9839.145.54191.289157333330.01210.01211.081.0921FF19.98182.98108459.109551288687.8226791896820.85095659103363895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-15 20:00:06FORECAST2021201-8451.7140.1445.925192.424621333330.03010.03011.071.1001FF19.71180.71108459.5092571774188.4208948115250.84476815278165894111123DRYL
2021-04-15 16:00:07FORECAST2021201-8451.8938.4845.185192.240230666670.010.011.071.08FF19.89184.89108459.4444263749988.3237025048430.84891230221166894111123DRYL
2021-04-15 12:00:06FORECAST2021201-8452.3839.3345.855191.545253333330.00860.00861.071.0786FF20.38176.38108459.1998028758687.9575425724720.85981858464421895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-15 08:00:06FORECAST2021201-8446.6838.3442.51191.700397333330.00950.00951.071.0795FF14.68169.68108459.2544491066488.0392603708430.70007477792357894111123DRYL
2021-04-15 04:00:09FORECAST2021201-8451.6238.0944.855190.921483250.01380.01381.071.0838FF19.62186.62108458.9798754328487.6291185995380.84266827821358894111123DRYL
2021-04-15 00:00:07FORECAST2021201-8447.3235.0241.17191.2279680.00780.00781.061.0678FF15.32172.32108459.0879786748587.790461295220.72136431198172894111123DRYL
2021-04-14 20:00:07FORECAST2021201-8447.3635.1541.255192.5799120.00780.00781.081.0878FF15.36180.36108459.5638330217288.5027625217050.72267012054064894111123DRYL
2021-04-14 16:00:07FORECAST2021201-8447.3534.7741.06192.456310666670.04560.04561.071.1156FF15.35181.35108459.5203959254988.4376000759050.72234394878955894111123DRYL
2021-04-14 12:00:06FORECAST2021201-8453.2737.1845.225191.339646814990.00440.00441.071.0744FF21.27184.27108459.1273490902187.8492648180240.878234683297895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-14 08:00:06FORECAST2021201-8454.6237.5946.105191.398755597120.00440.00441.071.0744FF22.62182.62108459.1481823395287.8803907344640.90281769740344895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-14 03:59:47FORECAST2021201-8454.6337.5946.11191.770299856950.00440.00441.071.0744FF22.63189.63108459.2790637730788.0760837777790.90298513166791895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 23:56:33FORECAST2021201-8456.8740.2948.58192.990965386430.00290.00291.081.0829FF24.87191.87108459.70819106588.7195275896840.93539501342425895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 20:00:06FORECAST2021201-8456.5740.3448.455193.217296771640.00290.00291.081.0829FF24.57192.57108459.7876121785388.8389195142240.9316181105376895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 16:00:07FORECAST2021201-8451.540.0845.79193.238483064790.0020.0021.081.082FF19.5183.5108459.7950442459888.85009687080.83983960861139894111123DRYL
2021-04-13 12:00:06FORECAST2021201-8458.4541.4849.965192.473669523810.01560.01561.071.0856FF26.45196.45108459.526497154988.4467511508270.95268584832068895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 08:00:06FORECAST2021201-8458.4841.5850.03192.818430347460.01560.01561.071.0856FF26.48181.48108459.6476167529488.6285319752510.95297428039756895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 04:00:08FORECAST2021201-8458.5441.7650.15192.565507995550.01590.02591.071.0959FF26.54197.54108459.5587717384388.495168333620.95354692786653895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 00:00:07FORECAST2021201-8458.8441.850.32195.852981971950.00280.00281.061.0628FF26.84179.84108460.7091368710290.2312582779120.95632697472674895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-12 20:00:06FORECAST2021201-8459.8443.4851.66196.12215759090.00240.00241.081.0824FF27.84193.84108460.8029030392890.3736595682150.96464057818766895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-12 12:00:07FORECAST2021201-8449.8242.8146.315197.0245911770.00030.00031.071.0703FF17.82180.82108461.1167945568490.8513479324090.7967952403175894111123DRYL
2021-04-12 07:59:48FORECAST2021201-8444.3942.9543.67198.17003874974001.081.08FF12.39167.39108461.5141782913891.4582825955560.61858598532405893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-12 03:56:31FORECAST2021201-8444.3942.9443.665198.2570661642001.081.08FF12.39177.39108461.5443229953291.5044233817950.61858598532405893111122.5DRYL