MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 20, 2021

[ Tuesday, January 19, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 21, 2021 ]

DAY 112 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/19/2021 11:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.625
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 53

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 111 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 360.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -172

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-19 23:00:03FORECAST2021112-17237.131.0234.06110.804129333330.18790.277910.0210.2979TT5.153.120360.0126592267739.8908892546010.62544846836992923112125WETL
2021-01-19 19:00:05FORECAST2021112-17237.1631.234.18110.699333333330.13920.229210.0210.2492TT5.1653.1620359.9493295084639.8461508103660.62761949813042923112125WETL
2021-01-19 15:01:58FORECAST2021112-17237.8731.5634.715110.732789333330.1440.23410.0210.254TT5.8753.8720359.9695492785139.8604322666720.65298563309524923112125WETL
2021-01-19 10:56:11FORECAST2021112-17237.631.5234.56110.460269883830.10830.198310.0210.2183TT5.653.620359.8047969487139.7441349764520.64341268009975923112125WETL
2021-01-19 07:00:08FORECAST2021112-17237.3431.234.27110.711714333330.1290.21910.0210.239TT5.3453.3420359.9568124016139.8514357869450.63410805488885923112125WETL
2021-01-19 03:00:07FORECAST2021112-17237.530.634.05110.6986490.12210.212110.0210.2321TT5.553.520359.9489159006539.8458586992170.63984371196506923112125WETL
2021-01-18 23:00:05FORECAST2021112-17237.3230.0433.68112.478753333330.07650.086510.0210.1065TT5.3257.3220361.0223747685740.6073466394080.63338895569278923111122.5WETL
2021-01-18 19:02:00FORECAST2021112-17236.6129.4333.02112.508218666670.00540.015410.0210.0354TT4.6156.6120361.0401024877740.619978798130.60757511296838923111122.5WETL
2021-01-18 15:00:06FORECAST2021112-17237.0929.2533.17112.4807760.00570.015710.0210.0357TT5.0957.0920361.0235917416240.6082137534040.6250862411433923111122.5WETL
2021-01-18 11:00:06FORECAST2021112-17237.0630.0833.57112.351325333330.00990.019910.0210.0399TT5.0657.0620360.9456928607840.5527269662670.62399889864899923111122.5WETL
2021-01-18 06:56:28FORECAST2021112-17237.33033.65112.52007650.00840.018410.0210.0384TT5.357.320361.0472363391140.6250626529910.63266938817467923111122.5WETL
2021-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2021112-17237.1229.333.21112.70998850.00630.016310.0210.0363TT5.1257.1220361.1614609896740.7065041147890.62617259063573923111122.5WETL
2021-01-17 22:59:19FORECAST2021112-17236.4128.7532.58112.397573333330.00920.01929.939.9492TT4.4160.4120360.9735262294640.5725483857680.60021174866022923111122.5WETL
2021-01-17 19:00:06FORECAST2021112-17237.6629.4533.555112.274409333330.00980.01989.939.9498TT5.6662.6620360.8993953716240.5197664441060.64554807558946923111122.5WETL
2021-01-17 15:00:05FORECAST2021112-17237.1628.5732.865112.336073333330.00880.00889.939.9388TT5.1663.1620360.9365130541640.5461905991290.62761949813042923111122.5WETL
2021-01-17 11:00:06FORECAST2021112-17237.631.4934.545112.309348567170.02050.02059.939.9505TT5.661.620360.9204272120140.5347380647650.64341268009975923111122.5WETL
2021-01-17 07:00:09FORECAST2021112-17238.231.4934.845112.384894880440.02440.03449.949.9744TT6.259.220360.9658962993240.5671143110240.66455418793513923111122.5WETL
2021-01-17 02:59:23FORECAST2021112-17237.3931.4134.4112.595448980770.00850.018510.0710.0885TT5.3956.3920361.0925765370240.6573807788090.63590373878197923111122.5WETL
2021-01-16 23:00:04FORECAST2021112-17237.3430.7134.025114.174968772850.05460.084610.1810.2646TT5.3467.3420362.0407399698941.3359901805610.63410805488885923111122.5WETL
2021-01-16 19:00:06FORECAST2021112-17239.1230.7834.95113.988303003140.01460.024610.2110.2346TT7.1268.1220361.9288852552941.2556594380680.69596512958292923111122.5WETL
2021-01-16 15:00:05FORECAST2021112-17239.4730.835.135113.8447580080.01650.026510.2410.2665TT7.4770.4720361.8428334886341.1939098154430.70756123958487924111123WETL
2021-01-16 11:00:06FORECAST2021112-17240.3832.6136.495113.491533613670.01290.012910.2810.2929TT8.3866.3820361.6309503329641.0420511554550.73670834081964924111123WETL
2021-01-16 07:00:09FORECAST2021112-17240.3832.6136.495113.182311482480.01290.012910.2910.3029TT8.3865.3820361.4453060052840.9092152081690.73670834081964924111123WETL
2021-01-16 03:00:08FORECAST2021112-17238.0533.1635.605113.078539182880.0130.01310.2810.293TT6.0565.0520361.3829726744240.8646586355910.65931426198769923111122.5WETL
2021-01-15 22:59:19FORECAST2021112-17238.531.2634.88115.844809786480.06890.06899.99.9689TT6.569.520363.0389940411442.0561832097710.67493779021851923111122.5WETL
2021-01-15 19:00:04FORECAST2021112-17238.530.9234.71116.098975050460.1540.1549.910.054TT6.567.520363.190566624142.1660525330530.67493779021851923112125WETL
2021-01-15 15:00:06FORECAST2021112-17237.9129.2333.57115.726121120770.02780.02789.929.9478TT5.9171.9120362.9681800054142.004899562290.65439576151983923111122.5WETL
2021-01-15 10:59:22FORECAST2021112-17239.2327.3533.29115.504135006720.02510.04519.929.9651TT7.2368.2320362.8356775849841.9090210890290.69963166617944924111123WETL
2021-01-15 06:56:39FORECAST2021112-17235.8327.3531.59115.410791657360.02510.04511010.0451TT3.8361.8320362.779939082141.8687199668750.57866465214283923111122.5WETL
2021-01-15 03:00:10FORECAST2021112-17234.5826.3130.445115.617555927020.05610.076110.2310.3061TT2.5858.5820362.9033873092241.958002678330.53150205569628923111122.5WETL
2021-01-14 23:00:06FORECAST2021112-17232.8723.7928.33118.047828133150.09250.242510.4910.7325TT0.8763.8720364.3495278532543.0106704444150.46639418332998922112124WETL
2021-01-14 19:00:06FORECAST2021112-17232.8723.8328.35118.089416595680.09250.242510.3910.6325TT0.8759.8720364.3741975830943.0287364151050.46639418332998922112124WETL
2021-01-14 14:56:38FORECAST2021112-17231.8324.8728.35118.846670137210.15760.317610.410.7176TT-0.1763.8320364.822935020543.3579910168690.42712250224855922112124WETL
2021-01-14 11:00:06FORECAST2021112-17232.0324.628.315119.080484182690.30330.373310.4310.8033TT0.03000000000000162.0320364.9613155215343.4597701602570.43463112007664922112124WETL
2021-01-14 07:00:11FORECAST2021112-17232.0224.628.31118.091979003180.30330.373310.3210.6933TT0.02000000000000362.0220364.3757174843443.0298495784290.43425510528008922112124WETL
2021-01-14 03:00:10FORECAST2021112-17233.3127.2830.295119.578129261720.40560.475610.3410.8156TT1.3160.3120365.2555683185843.6765775619640.4831309674461922112124WETL
2021-01-13 23:00:06FORECAST2021112-17230.825.2828.04123.193791744860.08170.161710.2210.3817TT-1.248.820367.3823433592645.259223898540.38892676927416922112124WETL
2021-01-13 19:01:52FORECAST2021112-17230.8125.2828.045123.644026129580.05470.134710.0810.2147TT-1.1945.8120367.645811597345.4572083355670.38929312248118922112124WETL
2021-01-13 15:00:04FORECAST2021112-17234.1428.4331.285124.19612769170.17750.257510.0810.3375TT2.1452.1420367.9684794903445.7002602653030.51475989888489923112125WETL
2021-01-13 11:00:05FORECAST2021112-17230.9827.2729.125125.9704070510.22610.496110.0310.5261TT-1.0242.9820369.0023734185846.4833791823230.39553593032526922113126WETL
2021-01-13 07:00:09FORECAST2021112-17232.9830.6331.805125.33807790710.220.4910.0610.55TT0.9849.9820368.6344418810546.2039323957260.4705739728873922112124WETL
2021-01-13 02:56:35FORECAST2021112-17228.6427.3628125.669664480990.05720.317210.2110.5272TT-3.3646.6420368.8274548965346.3504225082240.31259747163481922112124WETL