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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 3, 2021

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DAY 307 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/03/2021 12:00:04 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 77.24°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 59.45°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 68.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.924
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 45
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 660

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 214
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 22

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-08-03 12:00:04FORECAST20213072277.2459.4568.34500.06090.06090.040.1009FF45.24660.24215447.6591471522300.923899387404329552515160DRYH
2021-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20213072272.9358.6665.79500.05120.05120.040.0912FF40.93655.93215447.6591471522300.835480119787229542515155DRYH
2021-08-03 04:00:07FORECAST20213072273.959.166.500.07150.07150.040.1115FF41.9656.9215447.6591471522300.859607114344949552515160DRYH
2021-08-03 00:00:04FORECAST20213072273.359.6466.4700.01790.01790.040.0579FF41.3646.3214447.0871457971400.844982039832419542515155DRYH
2021-08-02 20:00:03FORECAST20213072272.9959.8566.4200.02420.02420.040.0642FF40.99654.99214447.0871457971400.837046028253239542515155DRYH
2021-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20213072273.2960.8367.0600.01120.01120.040.0512FF41.29655.29214447.0871457971400.844730081266879542515155DRYH
2021-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20213072274.1360.8667.49500.02870.02870.040.0687FF42.13656.13214447.0871457971400.864957298390579552515160DRYH
2021-08-02 08:00:05FORECAST20213072273.9660.7267.3400.03530.03530.040.0753FF41.96654.96214447.0871457971400.861016455778769552515160DRYH
2021-08-02 04:00:07FORECAST20213072274.1961.8668.02500.04940.04940.040.0894FF42.19656.19214447.0871457971400.866329761371939552515160DRYH
2021-08-02 00:00:06FORECAST20213072274.9362.368.61500.02090.02090.040.0609FF42.93643.93214447.0871457971400.882472538826429552515160DRYH
2021-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20213072275.7962.268.99500.01980.02980.040.0698FF43.79654.79214447.0871457971400.899442697779539552515160DRYH
2021-08-01 16:00:05FORECAST20213072276.3962.369.34500.03110.04110.040.0811FF44.39656.39214447.0871457971400.910178071449559552515160DRYH
2021-08-01 12:00:06FORECAST20213072276.5762.4969.5300.02150.03150.040.0715FF44.57655.57214447.0871457971400.91322685776589552515160DRYH
2021-08-01 08:00:03FORECAST20213072276.0562.2369.1400.02230.03230.040.0723FF44.05655.05214447.0871457971400.904203988466999552515160DRYH
2021-08-01 04:00:11FORECAST20213072275.8362.2969.0600.02740.05740.040.0974FF43.83654.83214447.0871457971400.900186197686759552515160DRYH
2021-08-01 00:00:06FORECAST20213072274.0361.367.66500.01010.060100.0601FF42.03649.03214447.0871457971400.862648510102499552515160DRYH
2021-07-31 20:00:06FORECAST20213072276.1761.0468.60500.00890.03890.050.0889FF44.17651.17214447.0871457971400.906344892356469552515160DRYH
2021-07-31 16:00:05FORECAST20213072276.4259.6468.0300.00910.09910.050.1491FF44.42654.42214447.0871457971400.9106916398749195525251120DRYVH
2021-07-31 12:00:04FORECAST20213072275.9158.6967.300.0690.2190.050.269FF43.91652.91214447.0871457971400.9016611744336195525251120DRYVH
2021-07-31 08:00:04FORECAST20213072271.7258.2764.99500.08210.28210.050.3321FF39.72647.72214447.0871457971400.8018415641958895425251110DRYVH
2021-07-31 04:00:07FORECAST20213072274.4456.8565.64500.0880.2480.050.298FF42.44651.44214447.0871457971400.8719452490098895525251120DRYVH
2021-07-31 00:00:06FORECAST20213072275.2456.5165.87500.02960.17960.030.2096FF43.24642.24214447.0871457971400.8888085982872395525251120DRYVH
2021-07-30 20:00:06FORECAST20213072276.2556.4766.3600.03110.11110.060.1711FF44.25653.25214447.0871457971400.9077524685693995525251120DRYVH
2021-07-30 16:00:04FORECAST20213072276.358.1667.2300.03310.14310.010.1531FF44.3653.3214447.0871457971400.9086242425513695525251120DRYVH
2021-07-30 12:00:06FORECAST20213072272.856.864.800.1460.1860.020.206FF40.8645.8214447.0871457971400.8320540641439795425251110DRYVH
2021-07-30 08:00:05FORECAST20213072270.2456.9963.61500.17920.20920.020.2292FF38.24644.24214447.0871457971400.7554997455135595425251110DRYVH
2021-07-30 04:00:07FORECAST20213072270.2457.1263.6800.17920.18920.010.1992FF38.24644.24214447.0871457971400.7554997455135595425251110DRYVH
2021-07-30 00:00:06FORECAST20213072274.8154.1164.4600.0110.1610.030.191FF42.81633.81214447.0871457971400.8799527317939295525251120DRYVH
2021-07-29 20:00:06FORECAST20213072274.2454.7564.49500.01110.58110.030.6111FF42.24636.24214447.0871457971400.8674661520822595525351180DRYVH
2021-07-29 16:00:06FORECAST20213072274.2451.3362.78500.01110.60110.040.6411FF42.24637.24214447.0871457971400.8674661520822595525351180DRYVH
2021-07-29 12:00:06FORECAST20213072271.9354.2763.1000.640.020.66FF39.93634.93214447.0871457971400.8079593073343895425351165DRYVH
2021-07-29 08:00:06FORECAST20213072274.554.8464.67000.080.020.1FF42.5650.5214447.0871457971400.873268293309629552515160DRYH
2021-07-29 04:00:07FORECAST20213072274.6154.8664.735000.070.020.09FF42.61647.61214447.0871457971400.875669160669689552515160DRYH
2021-07-29 00:00:06FORECAST20213072269.1249.7459.43000.230.030.26FF37.12632.12214447.0871457971400.7168885338201395425251110DRYVH
2021-07-28 20:00:06FORECAST20213072266.4749.2557.8600.02660.36660.060.4266FF34.47643.47214447.0871457971400.615545219612559532525250DRYMH
2021-07-28 16:00:06FORECAST20213072266.4249.2857.8500.02660.36660.030.3966FF34.42645.42214447.0871457971400.613526425020479532525250DRYMH
2021-07-28 12:00:06FORECAST20213072273.0254.0563.53500.00180.07180.020.0918FF41.02654.02214447.0871457971400.837825346051519542515155DRYH
2021-07-28 08:00:06FORECAST20213072270.7654.762.7300.00180.06180.020.0818FF38.76653.76214447.0871457971400.772413325587399542515155DRYH
2021-07-28 04:00:08FORECAST20213072270.8354.862.81500.00180.06180.020.0818FF38.83653.83214447.0871457971400.77463883016489542515155DRYH
2021-07-28 00:00:06FORECAST20213072274.7857.0565.91500.16120.19120.070.2612FF42.78656.78214447.0871457971400.8793168924046795525251120DRYVH
2021-07-27 20:00:06FORECAST20213072277.4960.7469.11500.16150.18150.060.2415FF45.49683.49214447.0871457971400.9276158092165395525251120DRYVH
2021-07-27 16:00:06FORECAST20213072277.0260.8668.9400.14830.16830.090.2583FF45.02686.02214447.0871457971400.9205107398591895525251120DRYVH
2021-07-27 12:00:06FORECAST20213072269.3556.2462.795000.010.090.1FF37.35670.35214447.0871457971400.725050340338279542515155DRYH
2021-07-27 08:00:05FORECAST20213072258.3956.5757.48000.010.110.12FF26.39655.39214447.0871457971400.287955568357559522515222.5DRYL
2021-07-27 04:00:08FORECAST20213072257.3556.5856.965000.010.050.06FF25.35658.35214447.0871457971400.251685996281239522515222.5DRYL