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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 22, 2019

[ Monday, October 21, 2019 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 23, 2019 ]

DAY 22 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/22/2019 12:00:12 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.422
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 183

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.94 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 24 in
SWE DAY: 72
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 102

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2019-10-22 12:00:12FORECAST20202210244.5533.8239.18523.5569266666670.01762.09766.848.9376TT12.55182.5571353.304677923738.32277238883950.42196573083759025152240WETL
2019-10-22 09:12:23FORECAST20202210244.8733.8439.35523.5066880.01032.09036.848.9303TT12.87182.8771353.273464049388.30428909808790.43399882031959025152240WETL
2019-10-22 08:00:11FORECAST20202210244.5333.5939.0600.01912.09916.848.9391TT12.53182.5371338.2227037099800.4212159544549990251552100WETH
2019-10-22 04:00:12FORECAST20202210242.7733.5338.1500.28412.36416.849.2041TT10.77180.7771338.2227037099800.3566450601190990251552100WETH
2019-10-22 00:00:14FORECAST20202210243.6333.7138.6728.9514933333330.75481.27486.848.1148TT11.63180.6372357.5483885424210.351559787230.387811115611599025141216WETL
2019-10-21 20:00:11FORECAST20202210245.4633.8239.6429.0443720.87522.03526.848.8752TT13.46184.4672357.6050836391310.3864150783060.456337798481439025151220WETL
2019-10-21 16:00:11FORECAST20202210244.1434.0439.0929.0205373333331.18582.34586.849.1858TT12.14183.1472357.5905357317210.3774694922490.406655628480129025151220WETL
2019-10-21 12:01:14FORECAST20202210246.2434.7340.48528.5329106666670.95682.11686.848.9568TT14.24185.2472357.2927108213410.1946009997170.486072149158459025151220WETL
2019-10-21 09:57:41FORECAST20202210242.6935.1238.90528.64290.92992.19996.849.0399TT10.69179.6972357.3599205903510.2358244694770.353790340597979025151220WETL
2019-10-21 08:00:11FORECAST20202210242.7235.3739.04501.1142.4846.849.324TT10.72179.7272339.2076049383800.3548599079999790251552100WETH
2019-10-21 04:01:14FORECAST20202210245.0335.6340.3301.03622.72626.849.5662TT13.03182.0372339.2076049383800.4400391077562290251552100WETH
2019-10-21 00:00:13FORECAST20202210241.8135.7638.78501.45122.99126.849.8312TT9.81177.8172339.2076049383800.3229599416975990251552100WETH
2019-10-20 20:01:13FORECAST20202210244.4535.8740.1601.37583.46586.8410.3058TT12.45184.4572339.2076049383800.4182197308432890251552100WETH
2019-10-20 16:00:11FORECAST20202210244.2635.8240.0401.2633.1236.849.963TT12.26185.2672339.2076049383800.411122995300290251552100WETH
2019-10-20 12:00:12FORECAST20202210244.5634.7139.63501.11412.98416.849.8241TT12.56184.5672339.2076049383800.4223407252840890251552100WETH
2019-10-20 08:00:11FORECAST20202210243.935.139.501.07653.24656.8410.0865TT11.9182.972339.2076049383800.3977577869125390251552100WETH
2019-10-20 04:00:12FORECAST20202210243.9135.739.80501.17533.29536.8410.1353TT11.91183.9172339.2076049383800.3981275052823390251552100WETH
2019-10-20 00:01:14FORECAST20202210243.2234.4138.8152.13202048624021.19353.75354.998.7435TT11.22178.2272340.6047238070.72617624886670.372848606667759025154280WETH
2019-10-19 20:00:11FORECAST20202210243.4733.9238.6950.500761374495071.11233.69235.589.2723TT11.47175.4772339.536435393430.170026732078770.381950877355649025154280WETH
2019-10-19 16:00:12FORECAST20202210239.932.9436.420.45046012644430.68932.91935.588.4993TT7.9175.972339.503423419820.152932755041960.260279605982179025154280WETH
2019-10-19 12:00:11FORECAST20202210240.1634.0837.123.17339649267840.82074.04075.589.6207TT8.16176.1672341.284394976371.08303070202390.268431025753349025154280WETH
2019-10-19 08:00:11FORECAST20202210242.0433.6237.834.14912997520530.72993.73995.949.6799TT10.04179.0472341.919594156581.41866883722510.330911873641919025154280WETH
2019-10-19 04:00:12FORECAST20202210243.0733.0838.0755.03354878958560.70513.68516.3210.0051TT11.07184.0772342.493989220741.72396020488240.367420747955049025154280WETH
2019-10-19 00:00:13FORECAST20202210240.1133.8236.9658.04621837988181.24863.77865.469.2386TT8.11172.1172344.440943458912.77144705004290.266853544077179025153260WETH
2019-10-18 20:00:12FORECAST20202210240.0933.8536.976.71247635867151.01163.58166.249.8216TT8.09176.0972343.580842952522.30627828561130.266223863789469025154280WETH
2019-10-18 16:00:11FORECAST20202210240.6735.0537.867.82156450455640.69323.82326.410.2232TT8.67180.6772344.29627316632.69293550924860.284784004202779025153260WETH
2019-10-18 12:00:12FORECAST20202210239.9334.5937.269.1042172492290.80933.72936.6210.3493TT7.93184.9372345.121153942843.14205796280020.261213612293669025153260WETH
2019-10-18 08:00:12FORECAST20202210239.9634.6337.2958.28291979505150.80932.59936.759.3493TT7.96184.9672344.593282717622.85423852266350.262149335516719025153260WETH
2019-10-18 04:00:12FORECAST20202210239.7834.4237.19.32194734927390.80932.59936.879.4693TT7.78184.7872345.260910705263.21850403135680.256560839962669025153260WETH
2019-10-18 00:00:13FORECAST20202210238.6829.9334.30512.7845037771210.91493.08496.119.1949TT6.68173.6872347.473102291834.44227118869790.22380148504219015153252.5WETH
2019-10-17 20:00:11FORECAST20202210238.6929.9534.3211.272622318550.91492.94496.969.9049TT6.69184.6972346.509569316673.90607150467030.224088196941599015153252.5WETH
2019-10-17 16:00:12FORECAST20202210238.7930.3534.5717.0241513190430.96282.85287.2910.1428TT6.79179.7972350.155407220345.96109863770010.226966745382069015152235WETL
2019-10-17 12:00:11FORECAST20202210242.1432.1837.1618.1129953519630.30242.03247.099.1224TT10.14175.1472350.839638869546.35475674812830.334393429755339025152240WETL
2019-10-17 08:00:11FORECAST20202210242.1532.237.17521.1354814776220.30242.14247.819.9524TT10.15181.1572352.729087577077.45509909710380.334742375806859025152240WETL
2019-10-17 04:00:12FORECAST20202210238.2432.6935.46523.6300527452071.19943.05948.1311.1894TT6.24173.2472354.2776310848.37159910896170.2113938405489015152235WETL
2019-10-17 00:00:14FORECAST20202210238.6931.6735.1828.7803808514061.34675.80677.2813.0867TT6.69164.6972357.4439028496210.2873716570250.224088196941599015151217.5WETL
2019-10-16 20:00:12FORECAST20202210240.2532.8336.5424.1676788768811.45665.88667.5313.4166TT8.25175.2572354.610087525558.57010272182010.271282244200129025152240WETL
2019-10-16 16:00:12FORECAST20202210239.8133.2736.5421.2748107741620.72954.60957.0711.6795TT7.81168.8172352.815837332487.50609017737620.257487933664529025152240WETL
2019-10-16 12:00:12FORECAST20202210234.7727.7531.2625.5798428676870.71694.14697.1811.3269TT2.77176.7772355.481180076639.09315272878020.128324630044749015152235WETL
2019-10-16 08:00:12FORECAST20202210234.7927.7731.2826.7525976088960.71694.14697.6211.7669TT2.79178.7972356.202222088449.52933471492660.128727337364439015152235WETL
2019-10-16 04:00:12FORECAST20202210235.7128.8432.27525.6990676135030.82363.78367.2211.0036TT3.71177.7172355.554580860419.13742121382250.148201574423229015152235WETL
2019-10-16 00:00:13FORECAST20202210236.529.5733.03526.542691020470.76183.15187.6510.8018TT4.5166.572356.07332348139.45114420579630.166418330896139015152235WETL
2019-10-15 20:00:12FORECAST20202210236.5229.8233.1724.9650025986970.75943.14947.0710.2194TT4.52185.5272355.102300221168.86512984782470.166897485511529015152235WETL
2019-10-15 16:00:11FORECAST20202210236.2530.7733.5123.9083722397160.53983.06986.889.9498TT4.25181.2572354.449794553548.47431762847680.160503755618929015152235WETL
2019-10-15 12:00:12FORECAST20202210246.7336.1341.4321.5445806645471.042.977.2810.25TT14.73188.7372352.983715281987.6048861271640.504801684058129035152245WETL
2019-10-15 08:00:11FORECAST20202210246.7338.5642.64522.1881063121550.94162.87167.4910.3616TT14.73186.7372353.383717453387.84091549184010.504801684058129035152245WETL
2019-10-15 04:00:11FORECAST20202210246.3944.3445.36522.5327762285330.53122.44127.469.9012TT14.39187.3972353.597688390957.96753758743990.491804328272449025152240WETL