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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 27, 2024

[ Friday, April 26, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 28, 2024 ]

DAY 210 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/28/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.146
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 194

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.70 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 116 in
SWE DAY: 117
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.58 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -76

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-28 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024210-7632.8899230.5299431.70993116.1611850.570000000000051.55000000000010.151.7FF0.88992193.88992117435.57665834941 50.5971007922070.1460470355197116 1115127.5DRYL
2024-04-28 00:00:01FORECAST2024210-7531.67627.19429.435117.406403941570.440945121.420945120.151.57094512FF-0.324192.676118436.7029667089451.2717249119110.12134006663567161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2024210-7532.59427.98630.29116.276265781780.4074805351.3874805350.151.537480535FF0.594193.594118436.2395776430250.7243090745520.1397342687167161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 08:00:01FORECAST2024210-7531.83827.53629.687116.421014278260.4437010271.4237010270.151.573701027FF-0.162192.838118436.2990029799750.794372455520.12445632363957161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 04:00:03FORECAST2024210-753227.26629.633116.019556340650.4708663961.4508663960.151.600866396FF0193118436.1341338879250.6000887186880.12762794023874161114126DRYL
2024-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2024210-7632.05427.03229.543111.169313542210.5094490941.4494490940.151.599449094FF0.054000000000002191.054117433.5053999591248.1924977302980.12869748784015161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 20:00:01FORECAST2024210-7632.03626.8729.453110.700569564080.4944884561.4244884560.151.574488456FF0.036000000000001191.036117433.309553587847.9676143797290.1283402852013161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 16:00:02FORECAST2024210-7631.33426.6929.012110.595855686130.4578742631.3878742630.151.537874263FF-0.666190.334117433.2657711096247.9173986953790.11494195356686161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 12:00:02FORECAST2024210-7631.56827.6829.624110.881473287640.429134091.359134090.151.50913409FF-0.432190.568117433.385164777548.0543855715340.11929319523622161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 08:00:03FORECAST2024210-7632.57628.27430.425110.590374426210.3842521761.3242521760.151.474252176FF0.576191.576117433.2634789900447.9147703667120.13935634133827161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2024210-7633.09828.79630.947110.910875280280.3811025681.3411025680.151.491102568FF1.098193.098117433.3974504612348.0684905748980.15059864781882161114126DRYL
2024-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024210-7633.78228.70631.244116.745052551910.3566931061.6666931060.151.816693106FF1.782193.782117435.8172092775250.879503000130.16621806474774161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 20:00:01FORECAST2024210-7633.04428.41830.731111.65385482530.3342521491.7642521490.151.914252149FF1.044192.044117433.7076016701648.4251255935120.14940847908319161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 16:00:01FORECAST2024210-7632.3626.79829.579112.211752148070.3216537171.8116537170.151.961653717FF0.36189.36117433.9401072427748.6931797610330.13487529004065161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024210-7632.86427.69830.281113.932981143810.3098426871.8398426870.151.989842687FF0.864190.864117434.6553623885249.5215812070660.1454865770363161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2024210-7634.05227.60830.83115.546034501380.322834821.882834820.152.03283482FF2.052192.052117435.3228327592950.2998270532460.17266109917292161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 04:00:03FORECAST2024210-7633.3527.5930.47115.669900760760.3287403351.7987403350.151.948740335FF1.35191.35117435.3739747906550.3596644578530.15623583532291161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-25 00:00:02FORECAST2024210-7633.92627.87830.902113.162927022240.2929135441.5829135440.211.792913544FF1.926186.926117434.3357536197549.1507051900240.16963483056309161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-24 20:00:03FORECAST2024210-7634.48428.27431.379115.273328375470.2956694511.6056694510.221.825669451FF2.484189.484117435.2101808431150.1681260886770.18329552167413161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-24 16:00:02FORECAST2024210-7633.67427.06830.371115.183225346630.2673229791.5073229790.221.727322979FF1.674186.674117435.1729431146550.1246231715310.16368479679877161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-24 12:00:02FORECAST2024210-7634.0727.57230.821114.81613935120.2311024871.5011024870.221.721102487FF2.07189.07117435.021145905849.9474485090380.17309620922709161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-24 08:00:02FORECAST2024210-7634.71827.24830.983114.263892923690.2988190591.5888190590.231.818819059FF2.718188.718117434.7925144581149.6810853160640.18922235583672161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2024210-7633.83626.40230.119113.677705330090.2960631521.5160631520.231.746063152FF1.836186.836117434.5494801496249.3985877557920.16749412047198161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2024210-7633.7127.530.605120.689167258550.2311024871.4011024870.221.621102487FF1.71177.71117437.432856667152.793407202680.16452642717485161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2024210-7634.66427.51831.091121.750413337540.2011812111.3511812110.191.541181211FF2.664180.664117437.8648238294953.3102232872110.18784427980391161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 16:00:03FORECAST2024210-7633.90827.51830.713122.216953261770.2074804271.3574804270.191.547480427FF1.908177.908117438.0543550183753.5376686333960.16920529393252161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 12:00:03FORECAST2024210-7633.76427.8630.812120.866537711060.2279528791.2079528790.181.387952879FF1.764178.764117437.5051341943752.8797308008850.16579410841413161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 08:00:02FORECAST2024210-7633.22427.87830.551120.494906218040.2976379561.2276379560.111.337637956FF1.224180.224117437.3536589435752.698888118520.15340013482436161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2024210-7631.8226.65429.237119.331547252120.2779529061.1579529060.111.267952906FF-0.18177.82117436.8785538534152.1333937925950.12410734342326161114126DRYL
2024-04-23 00:00:04FORECAST2024210-7633.02626.20429.615120.047057458360.2066930251.3666930250.111.476693025FF1.026173.026117437.170927813252.4810834903170.14901315142151161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 20:00:03FORECAST2024210-7633.58426.18629.885121.300206347450.2303150851.3303150850.111.440315085FF1.584172.584117437.6817148088853.0908823208230.16159294056054161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2024210-7634.23225.86230.047122.76446678460.2196851581.3196851580.111.429685158FF2.232172.232117438.276495355653.8047802565550.17704350535526161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 12:00:03FORECAST2024210-7634.86227.531.181121.468367596480.2385828061.3285828060.111.438582806FF2.862175.862117437.7501341635453.1727942119840.1929274815651161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 08:00:03FORECAST2024210-7634.35827.55430.956121.458283117240.0574803461.2274803460.111.337480346FF2.358176.358117437.7460319398953.1678814808030.18015252921066161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024210-7635.27628.65231.964120.598329363670.0578740471.2178740470.111.327874047FF3.276179.276117437.3958280918552.7492061385150.20382349589811161114126DRYL
2024-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024210-7633.8925.41229.651124.241153658630.2590552582.0390552580.112.149055258FF1.89178.89117438.874087328254.5262229205310.16877645450701161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-21 20:00:04FORECAST2024210-7634.86225.53830.2122.803654588620.2358268991.6758268990.111.785826899FF2.862174.862117438.2923830132153.8239064123780.1929274815651161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2024210-7634.725.53830.119122.884028698420.2393702081.7193702080.111.829370208FF2.7175.7117438.3249636205653.8631374087850.18876230860703161115127.5DRYL
2024-04-21 12:00:03FORECAST2024210-7639.228.0433.62119.85188934101.160.111.27FF7.2182.2117437.0912303170552.3862097678810.32370309474113162114128DRYL
2024-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2024210-7634.98827.87831.433118.826955590810.2137796430.9437796430.111.053779643FF2.988176.988117436.6720463444851.8884098587260.19620546687202161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024210-7635.76228.23832118.365217129450.2488190320.8588190320.110.968819032FF3.762176.762117436.4828447428551.6643866912670.2170707356767161113124.5DRYL
2024-04-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024210-7639.36227.82433.593119.092905793600.270.210.48FF7.362178.362117436.7809212288152.0175091043450.32922017263563162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 20:00:03FORECAST2024210-7640.87428.02234.448119.4067332124600.280.190.47FF8.874178.874117436.9093015595852.1699124093670.38237048764279162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 16:00:04FORECAST2024210-7640.11828.41834.268119.2587445431700.270.190.46FF8.118179.118117436.8487751945952.0980364849280.35544400249227162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024210-7635.7826.2431.01118.47202948580.1185040010.1185040010.210.328504001FF3.78174.78117436.5266318234351.7161959967240.21757072493364161112123DRYL
2024-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024210-7639.70428.0433.872118.341964938190.0732283860.0732283860.20.273228386FF7.704168.704117436.473311072851.6531092754320.34098893198874162111122DRYL
2024-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024210-7639.36227.7733.566118.755558360410.122047310.122047310.160.28204731FF7.362170.362117436.6428051705751.8537601320850.32922017263563162112124DRYL
2024-04-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024210-7638.55224.04431.298119.9744272489000.190.19FF6.552162.552117437.1412736610852.4457739343440.30202914008119162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 20:00:03FORECAST2024210-7639.12828.0433.584120.78299026600.090.230.32FF7.128167.128117437.4710931062152.8390667803030.32126334044079162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 16:00:04FORECAST2024210-7639.14628.05833.602120.8553306577500.090.310.4FF7.146166.146117437.500568342752.874275850010.32187256216395162111122DRYL
2024-04-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024210-7638.49826.67232.585122.515702076670.0251968640.5451968640.270.815196864FF6.498172.498117438.1756033999853.6833916834180.30025270202659162113126DRYL
2024-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024210-7639.84826.56433.206121.084659994010.0673228710.4173228710.40.817322871FF7.848168.848117437.5939732458552.98591746590.34599167403155162112124DRYL
2024-04-19 04:00:05FORECAST2024210-7637.6727.80632.738124.764367245190.4637797780.6137797780.51.113779778FF5.67164.67117439.0852864353154.7821979287740.27362599173719162113126DRYL
2024-04-19 00:00:03FORECAST2024210-7637.6727.80632.738127.537326050380.4637797780.6137797780.51.113779778FF5.67159.67117440.1999385165156.1419230859370.27362599173719162113126DRYL
2024-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024210-7640.29829.334.799124.208466952890.2027560150.3427560150.430.772756015FF8.298165.298117438.8608837757454.5102375793760.36179572931211162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024210-7640.22629.31834.772123.316016723240.2027560150.4027560150.350.752756015FF8.226175.226117438.499961237154.0740685530550.35925035430869162112124DRYL
2024-04-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024210-7640.4630.25435.357122.7171711710300.040.50.54FF8.46175.46117438.2573184951153.7816983707230.36754506430301162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024210-7643.19630.93837.067123.4884617893100.020.760.78FF11.196175.196117438.5697648341854.1583056466720.4681367455517162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 04:00:06FORECAST2024210-7640.60428.29234.448123.6346983809600.020.770.79FF8.604169.604117438.6289356170454.2297561561730.37268066325175162111122DRYL
2024-04-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024210-7629.69624.02626.861124.786035266600.040.530.57FF-2.304162.696117439.0940268443454.7928027191530.087609025957588161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-17 20:00:05FORECAST2024210-7630.16424.54827.356123.2448932967300.040.270.31FF-1.836164.164117438.4711624604554.0393316311330.094871570091866161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024210-7630.36224.54827.455122.5168714452300.040.230.27FF-1.638172.362117438.1760778120653.6839621956740.098073838786415161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024210-7633.33228.05830.695123.90254129386000.370.37FF1.332160.332117438.7372542167554.3606607577460.15582863999215161111121.5DRYL
2024-04-17 08:00:04FORECAST2024210-7640.0135.29437.652123.9462344104300.510.480.99FF8.01177.01117438.7549172002854.3820198160360.35165200774506162113126DRYL
2024-04-17 04:00:05FORECAST2024210-7637.43636.71637.076123.7990284345100.50.450.95FF5.436173.436117438.6954012220154.3100644499740.26631825625397162113126DRYL