MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 16, 2021

[ Wednesday, December 15, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, December 17, 2021 ]

DAY 77 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/17/2021 07:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.49°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.153
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -19

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.99 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 74 in
SWE DAY: 16
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 332.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.62 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 157

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-17 07:00:10OBSERVATION20227715725.4899420.3500422.9199974.0073979166670.240000000000010.990000000000018.039.02TT-6.51006-18.5100616332.70619420589 24.6227197039350.1527889806912916 1214128WETL
2021-12-17 03:00:09OBSERVATION20227715725.4899420.3500422.9199974.0073979166670.240000000000010.990000000000018.039.02TT-6.51006-18.5100616332.70619420589 24.6227197039350.1527889806912916 1214128WETL
2021-12-16 11:00:02FORECAST20227715730.3521.826.07574.5899323130380.14690.89698.038.9269TT-1.65-13.6516333.0982947155624.8457792564220.34798538804124162213127.5WETL
2021-12-16 07:00:08FORECAST20227715727.3118.7623.03574.9952772405570.21410.96418.038.9941TT-4.69-16.6916333.3707879264525.0012346644470.21560079634223161213126WETL
2021-12-16 03:00:06FORECAST20227715727.5718.9723.2774.9789461016180.21410.96418.038.9941TT-4.43-16.4316333.3598147380424.9949675816890.22565546922023161213126WETL
2021-12-15 23:00:02FORECAST20227715727.4621.1624.3173.9851859932460.2070.8578.038.887TT-4.54-12.5416332.6912320039824.6142226781360.22136959985744161213126WETL
2021-12-15 19:00:02FORECAST20227715726.9620.3423.6573.946537020390.19170.84178.038.8717TT-5.04-13.0416332.6651956079724.599439202420.2024837443788161213126WETL
2021-12-15 15:00:01FORECAST20227715727.8320.4524.1473.9427596184050.19250.84258.038.8725TT-4.17-12.1716332.6626507736424.5979944201760.23596973834678161213126WETL
2021-12-15 11:00:01FORECAST20227715728.1220.4524.28575.109223738840.21020.86028.038.8902TT-3.88-11.8816333.4473379788225.0449707133720.24777371684843161213126WETL
2021-12-15 07:00:07FORECAST20227715728.1620.724.4374.7126593474030.20020.87028.038.9002TT-3.84-11.8416333.1808276041224.8928256738730.24942620171116162213127.5WETL
2021-12-15 03:00:08FORECAST20227715727.5521.7724.6675.0116449606940.22250.93258.038.9625TT-4.45-14.4516333.3817852377325.0075161106150.22487275225318161213126WETL
2021-12-14 23:00:02FORECAST20227715728.2122.4725.3472.4657759616390.23950.68958.038.7195TT-3.79-11.7916331.6657338325924.0344147620650.25150000404745162213127.5WETL
2021-12-14 19:00:02FORECAST20227715727.821.9724.88572.7685274227180.2680.7488.038.778TT-4.2-12.216331.8703862824.1497193048040.23476654871665161213126WETL
2021-12-14 15:00:01FORECAST20227715727.7221.0624.3972.5548721412490.24740.67748.038.7074TT-4.28-12.2816331.7259769739324.0683358452740.23157465812555161213126WETL
2021-12-14 11:00:03FORECAST20227715727.9121.1824.54574.285530297680.27230.78238.038.8123TT-4.09-12.0916332.8934758659224.7291683873380.23919476827023161213126WETL
2021-12-14 07:00:05FORECAST20227715728.0321.4824.75575.4549021272620.39270.97278.039.0027TT-3.97-9.9716333.6794316199725.1777488547650.24407706806695161213126WETL
2021-12-14 03:00:08FORECAST20227715728.620.9424.7776.3306877747710.45671.16678.039.1967TT-3.4-10.416334.2665358496725.5147945814960.267982747759891622141210WETL
2021-12-13 23:00:03FORECAST20227715723.3920.1421.76575.3865304581780.50921.28927.668.9492TT-8.61-9.6116333.6335420241925.1514751776760.097030497353692161214128WETL
2021-12-13 19:00:02FORECAST20227715725.2619.5922.42575.9061392744620.48411.39417.669.0541TT-6.74-9.7416333.9820925247925.3512912303630.14581611287429161214128WETL
2021-12-13 15:00:04FORECAST20227715728.1721.7724.9776.6191218617630.47261.54267.669.2026TT-3.83-3.8316334.4596089451225.6260015356030.249840234893021622151212.5WETL
2021-12-13 11:00:03FORECAST20227715723.9619.3221.6478.8545546589980.52451.70457.669.3645TT-8.04-10.0416335.9511847120226.4912810576290.110433261512671612151210WETL
2021-12-13 07:00:08FORECAST20227715723.5518.4821.01576.1875977765020.26311.18317.88.9831TT-8.45-10.4516334.1707012229525.4596629734650.10066640849331161214128WETL
2021-12-13 03:00:07FORECAST20227715728.8817.7223.377.25262539320.36211.21217.969.1721TT-3.12-11.1216334.8831697399725.8706040624090.280142602849281622141210WETL
2021-12-12 23:00:02FORECAST20227715728.6517.7723.2168.8438244334120.40911.29917.769.0591TT-3.35-1.3516329.205142242522.6637410151190.270134537566881622141210WETL
2021-12-12 19:00:04FORECAST20227715729.8317.8623.84567.2036332310540.3451.1057.718.815TT-2.172.8316328.0834014385922.0483965794760.323275406227991622141210WETL
2021-12-12 15:00:01FORECAST20227715730.2518.8324.5467.5144163933230.27911.08917.688.7691TT-1.755.2516328.2963077121422.1647336192680.343179008188331622141210WETL
2021-12-12 11:00:04FORECAST20227715730.1919.1424.66568.2997954596220.22390.92397.618.5339TT-1.813.1916328.8335940118822.4592672112640.34030724301184162213127.5WETL
2021-12-12 07:00:06FORECAST20227715725.0320.4622.74568.9351091067820.23770.99777.578.5677TT-6.97-5.9716329.2674354351822.6980865870350.13905807239761161214128WETL
2021-12-12 03:00:15FORECAST20227715730.2121.4425.82569.0726004150040.2840.9347.748.674TT-1.79-0.7916329.361233048422.7498368425450.34126348013471162213127.5WETL
2021-12-11 23:00:02FORECAST20227715729.0719.1524.1153.6572405819910.16010.69016.877.5601TT-2.931.0716318.6380302547517.0972374479510.28854323395721162213127.5WETL
2021-12-11 19:00:04FORECAST20227715728.3619.1623.7655.8898675598050.22321.08326.948.0232TT-3.642.3616320.2172073977117.8968973118290.257775586316731622141210WETL
2021-12-11 15:00:03FORECAST20227715728.9719.3124.1456.6704877864150.23181.09187.028.1118TT-3.034.9716320.7672445208718.1780362129020.284107074889181622141210WETL
2021-12-11 11:00:06FORECAST20227715729.621.2725.43561.7801432367440.56991.16997.078.2399TT-2.45.616324.3407791081920.0378197908210.312581817026641622141210WETL
2021-12-11 07:00:05FORECAST20227715726.4722.0924.2865.3032643936890.61941.27947.688.9594TT-5.53-6.5316326.7778654219821.3396613436570.18494170859588161214128WETL
2021-12-11 03:00:05FORECAST20227715726.6322.2624.44567.2841839243080.61941.23948.349.5794TT-5.37-3.3716328.1385999333622.0785379105810.19056325912696161214128WETL
2021-12-10 23:00:05FORECAST20227715731.520.7726.13567.0162684078570.50151.23158.669.8915TT-0.55.516327.9549633649721.9783178505560.404839764415981622141210WETL
2021-12-10 19:00:04FORECAST20227715731.4420.5525.99566.1080748404650.50151.11158.529.6315TT-0.565.4416327.3315322139221.6392574292420.401811262109781622141210WETL
2021-12-10 15:00:03FORECAST20227715731.4822.0426.7666.9471989499640.54541.19548.489.6754TT-0.525.4816327.907601018921.9524954026180.403829620646351622141210WETL
2021-12-10 11:00:03FORECAST20227715727.8116.4822.14568.9219748220750.33350.96358.39.2635TT-4.19-4.1916329.2584734123722.6931442144820.23516723527716161213126WETL
2021-12-10 09:23:04FORECAST20227715727.8116.4922.1568.1972751338830.33350.89358.39.1935TT-4.19-3.1916328.7635195585322.4207761973170.23516723527716161213126WETL
2021-12-10 07:00:10FORECAST20227715729.116.4422.7796.0233228659650.33640.90648.519.4164TT-2.99.116347.1289298230933.332473304520.28988041088102162213127.5WETL
2021-12-10 03:00:10FORECAST20227715729.1216.4422.7897.1619131081280.33640.90648.589.4864TT-2.8810.1216347.8531168904333.79807431770.2907734720543162213127.5WETL
2021-12-09 23:00:03FORECAST20227715732.617.1824.8946.527961830530.0210.3217.677.991TT0.68.616313.5349872855114.5881439209560.46119104119193162212125WETL
2021-12-09 19:00:04FORECAST20227715735.4220.5127.96546.9873453284040.0210.2917.697.981TT3.4210.4216313.8666005683514.7477583479570.60649945874859163212126WETL
2021-12-09 15:00:04FORECAST20227715735.3520.6427.99543.0836207620040.0210.2917.547.831TT3.3515.3516311.036269817113.4005686920280.60298499332465163212126WETL
2021-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20227715725.1618.0521.60547.7858965245730.15580.59587.558.1458TT-6.8413.1616314.4421273304115.0258989595780.14285125256274161213126WETL
2021-12-09 09:37:03FORECAST20227715722.4818.0620.2749.1398334813590.14950.58957.688.2695TT-9.528.4816315.415264649115.4994535823350.078162752559372161213126WETL
2021-12-09 09:35:45FORECAST20227715722.4818.0620.2751.8167213980250.14950.58957.618.1995TT-9.521.4816317.3294468653216.442971539610.078162752559372161213126WETL