Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 14, 2021
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Monday, December 13, 2021 |
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Wednesday, December 15, 2021 ]
DAY 75
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/15/2021 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 20.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.03°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.057
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 20
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.66 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.62 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 73 in
SWE DAY: 18
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.20 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 155
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-15 07:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 20.89994 | 15.15992 | 18.02993 | 72.51954 | 0.43999999999994 | 1.6599999999999 | 9.96 | 11.62 | T | T | -11.10006 | 19.89994 | 18 | 333.71752424734 | 24.201041348356 | 0.05708059157599 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-15 03:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 20.89994 | 15.15992 | 18.02993 | 72.51954 | 0.43999999999994 | 1.6599999999999 | 9.96 | 11.62 | T | T | -11.10006 | 19.89994 | 18 | 333.71752424734 | 24.201041348356 | 0.05708059157599 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-14 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 20.78 | 16.42 | 18.6 | 71.181589570366 | 0.1933 | 1.4133 | 9.96 | 11.3733 | T | T | -11.22 | 19.78 | 18 | 332.81820082055 | 23.690528572356 | 0.055266478174577 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-14 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 22.57 | 16.59 | 19.58 | 71.152337436421 | 0.1933 | 1.4133 | 9.96 | 11.3733 | T | T | -9.43 | 21.57 | 18 | 332.79850439976 | 23.679391483388 | 0.08745962001789 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-14 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 21.64 | 16.84 | 19.24 | 71.306489567933 | 0.2156 | 1.4356 | 9.96 | 11.3956 | T | T | -10.36 | 20.64 | 18 | 332.9022836212 | 23.738093214176 | 0.06932649493116 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 22.94 | 14.7 | 18.82 | 69.424673467378 | 0.2274 | 1.0774 | 9.96 | 11.0374 | T | T | -9.06 | 26.94 | 18 | 331.63261214045 | 23.023485808984 | 0.095581064166387 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 20.39 | 14.98 | 17.685 | 69.680603828973 | 0.2678 | 1.1178 | 9.96 | 11.0778 | T | T | -11.61 | 24.39 | 18 | 331.80564650122 | 23.120417802068 | 0.049679848441024 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 23.49 | 16.98 | 20.235 | 70.222654641745 | 0.3665 | 1.2165 | 9.96 | 11.1765 | T | T | -8.51 | 27.49 | 18 | 332.17175553017 | 23.325982470337 | 0.10865531478897 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 21.08 | 17.86 | 19.47 | 71.101720067231 | 0.3464 | 1.1964 | 9.96 | 11.1564 | T | T | -10.92 | 25.08 | 18 | 332.76441860833 | 23.660122540224 | 0.059891349864298 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 23.25 | 16.82 | 20.035 | 70.632714931338 | 0.2311 | 1.2211 | 9.96 | 11.1811 | T | T | -8.75 | 25.25 | 18 | 332.44838153105 | 23.481731762068 | 0.10280060517611 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 23.09 | 16.03 | 19.56 | 71.350811014767 | 0.2097 | 1.3597 | 9.96 | 11.3197 | T | T | -8.91 | 20.09 | 18 | 332.93211445083 | 23.754976378928 | 0.099026550631193 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 23.42 | 15.58 | 19.5 | 62.316650129297 | 0.2249 | 1.1749 | 9.96 | 11.1349 | T | T | -8.58 | 29.42 | 18 | 326.78166104252 | 20.363938439857 | 0.10692352845662 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 23.4 | 17.03 | 20.215 | 61.669681433738 | 0.1678 | 1.0678 | 9.96 | 11.0278 | T | T | -8.6 | 30.4 | 18 | 326.33576587462 | 20.125022721923 | 0.10643239793091 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 24.71 | 18.18 | 21.445 | 62.210601205415 | 0.243 | 1.113 | 9.96 | 11.073 | T | T | -7.29 | 31.71 | 18 | 326.7086216133 | 20.324739769556 | 0.14211058254063 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 24.9 | 17.47 | 21.185 | 64.06061539179 | 0.3236 | 1.1236 | 9.96 | 11.0836 | T | T | -7.1 | 30.9 | 18 | 327.97997027631 | 21.010598732082 | 0.14788796626706 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 25.45 | 17.25 | 21.35 | 64.046777211778 | 0.3322 | 1.0922 | 9.96 | 11.0522 | T | T | -6.55 | 31.45 | 18 | 327.9704826966 | 21.005452437308 | 0.16548489682076 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 21.71 | 16.76 | 19.235 | 64.476500968578 | 0.2456 | 1.1756 | 9.96 | 11.1356 | T | T | -10.29 | 26.71 | 18 | 328.26494958297 | 21.165375339737 | 0.070581987828331 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 25.64 | 17.12 | 21.38 | 49.766243974529 | 0.1796 | 1.4396 | 8.76 | 10.1996 | T | T | -6.36 | 34.64 | 18 | 317.99971008043 | 15.825651155692 | 0.17186557739552 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.81 | 18.6 | 22.705 | 51.375965148545 | 0.42 | 1.75 | 8.76 | 10.51 | T | T | -5.19 | 32.81 | 18 | 319.14179967836 | 16.396217977719 | 0.2145347419699 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.36 | 17.55 | 21.955 | 52.632506620258 | 0.5044 | 1.9144 | 8.76 | 10.6744 | T | T | -5.64 | 35.36 | 18 | 320.03007036295 | 16.843984797059 | 0.19744229453141 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 25.48 | 14.37 | 19.925 | 56.040899266733 | 0.3605 | 1.8205 | 8.76 | 10.5805 | T | T | -6.52 | 34.48 | 18 | 322.42529544628 | 18.069003503152 | 0.16648208103619 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 23.13 | 18.23 | 20.68 | 59.317979043946 | 0.4162 | 1.8462 | 9.4 | 11.2462 | T | T | -8.87 | 26.13 | 18 | 324.70877024996 | 19.261068029073 | 0.099960455783573 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.24 | 17.9 | 22.07 | 61.239092563913 | 0.3756 | 1.8056 | 10.06 | 11.8656 | T | T | -5.76 | 27.24 | 18 | 326.03859475374 | 19.966307683532 | 0.19302699279562 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 25.73 | 17.94 | 21.835 | 60.999074837401 | 0.4213 | 1.8013 | 10.43 | 12.2313 | T | T | -6.27 | 30.73 | 18 | 325.87280526922 | 19.877939636091 | 0.17494198069911 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.28 | 16.63 | 21.455 | 59.694481989739 | 0.2827 | 1.6427 | 10.31 | 11.9527 | T | T | -5.72 | 31.28 | 18 | 324.96990291622 | 19.398910016839 | 0.19449203042749 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.29 | 17.13 | 21.71 | 59.520323158727 | 0.2205 | 1.6505 | 10.2 | 11.8505 | T | T | -5.71 | 31.29 | 18 | 324.84914191396 | 19.335125904554 | 0.19485934233042 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 25.34 | 13.9 | 19.62 | 61.489150763818 | 0.1782 | 1.5182 | 10.11 | 11.6282 | T | T | -6.66 | 26.34 | 18 | 326.21121211016 | 20.058450402289 | 0.16186160274845 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 09:23:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.05 | 16.7 | 21.375 | 60.715524159617 | 0.1071 | 1.4671 | 10.09 | 11.5571 | T | T | -5.95 | 27.05 | 18 | 325.67681562156 | 19.773638567098 | 0.1861603269177 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.06 | 16.81 | 21.435 | 88.65555871222 | 0.1071 | 1.5871 | 10.18 | 11.7671 | T | T | -5.94 | 38.06 | 18 | 344.32628419639 | 30.526439104733 | 0.18651792034074 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.11 | 16.74 | 21.425 | 89.174459994687 | 0.1061 | 1.6061 | 10.23 | 11.8361 | T | T | -5.89 | 39.11 | 18 | 344.66027655041 | 30.734894043002 | 0.18831224666489 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.16 | 16.44 | 21.3 | 44.9123834996 | 0.1717 | 1.2317 | 9.76 | 10.9917 | T | T | -5.84 | 34.16 | 18 | 314.52751378114 | 14.126180320114 | 0.19011715909225 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 24.03 | 17.37 | 20.7 | 45.431590395141 | 0.1416 | 1.2616 | 9.72 | 10.9816 | T | T | -7.97 | 32.03 | 18 | 314.90097499947 | 14.306452111206 | 0.12269311269723 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 24.04 | 17.52 | 20.78 | 41.541520099013 | 0.1416 | 1.1716 | 9.66 | 10.8316 | T | T | -7.96 | 37.04 | 18 | 312.09086412383 | 12.964728904718 | 0.12296451067071 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 30.11 | 13.72 | 21.915 | 43.64445322399 | 0.2566 | 1.1866 | 9.77 | 10.9566 | T | T | -1.89 | 45.11 | 18 | 313.61342939866 | 13.687486649805 | 0.36285418706237 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:37:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 30.12 | 13.73 | 21.925 | 45.005478963419 | 0.2566 | 1.2566 | 9.83 | 11.0866 | T | T | -1.88 | 43.12 | 18 | 314.59451281976 | 14.158476728717 | 0.36335436193736 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:35:44 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 30.12 | 13.73 | 21.925 | 47.682366880085 | 0.2566 | 1.2566 | 9.76 | 11.0166 | T | T | -1.88 | 36.12 | 18 | 316.51425664112 | 15.092148907939 | 0.36335436193736 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 27.5 | 16.43 | 21.965 | 49.05779145055 | 0.0745 | 1.1545 | 9.87 | 11.0245 | T | T | -4.5 | 34.5 | 18 | 317.49558462748 | 15.575632177125 | 0.24234367022725 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 25.67 | 16.25 | 20.96 | 50.342500893399 | 0.0631 | 1.2231 | 9.9 | 11.1231 | T | T | -6.33 | 30.67 | 18 | 318.40909837383 | 16.029510319351 | 0.1728871937486 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 25.7 | 16.13 | 20.915 | 49.842893501599 | 0.0631 | 1.2031 | 9.79 | 10.9931 | T | T | -6.3 | 33.7 | 18 | 318.0541985072 | 15.852741543931 | 0.17391266214999 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 27.69 | 18.96 | 23.325 | 55.100044337172 | 0.5344 | 1.6344 | 9.67 | 11.3044 | T | T | -4.31 | 38.69 | 18 | 321.76618659646 | 17.729331147668 | 0.25033003585226 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 10:37:50 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 27.69 | 18.96 | 23.325 | 55.100044337172 | 0.5344 | 1.6344 | 9.67 | 11.3044 | T | T | -4.31 | 38.69 | 18 | 321.76618659646 | 17.729331147668 | 0.25033003585226 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 28.54 | 21.37 | 24.955 | 66.861411908254 | 0.7408 | 1.6908 | 9.77 | 11.4608 | T | T | -3.46 | 39.54 | 18 | 329.89337354965 | 22.057136734707 | 0.28769494853065 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 27.05 | 22.03 | 24.54 | 67.690295689514 | 0.7408 | 1.6908 | 9.95 | 11.6408 | T | T | -4.95 | 38.05 | 18 | 330.4570317071 | 22.368734188933 | 0.22399112999471 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.06 | 18.91 | 22.485 | 56.57745285465 | 0.2429 | 1.4029 | 10.55 | 11.9529 | T | T | -5.94 | 50.06 | 18 | 322.80046936647 | 18.26322833704 | 0.18651792034074 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 29.56 | 18.99 | 24.275 | 54.018732853837 | 0.0641 | 1.0941 | 10.51 | 11.6041 | T | T | -2.44 | 51.56 | 18 | 321.00673401882 | 17.340377009245 | 0.33572565920695 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 28.82 | 19.55 | 24.185 | 54.278176876618 | 0.0504 | 1.0604 | 10.44 | 11.5004 | T | T | -3.18 | 49.82 | 18 | 321.18914319863 | 17.433561125385 | 0.30055526530352 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 12:27:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.25 | 24.92 | 25.585 | 52.951793393239 | 0.0884 | 0.8484 | 10.51 | 11.3584 | T | T | -5.75 | 44.25 | 18 | 320.2553283004 | 16.958093977247 | 0.19339262037545 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 26.25 | 24.91 | 25.58 | 69.380056401718 | 0.0841 | 0.8441 | 10.58 | 11.4241 | T | T | -5.75 | 48.25 | 18 | 331.60243505394 | 23.006595646989 | 0.19339262037545 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 25.18 | 23.72 | 24.45 | 70.260667731714 | 0.0699 | 0.8199 | 10.54 | 11.3599 | T | T | -6.82 | 43.18 | 18 | 332.1974112168 | 23.340411930839 | 0.15668410575466 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 75 | 155 | 24.65 | 23.72 | 24.185 | 70.085190643414 | 0.0595 | 0.8095 | 10.48 | 11.2895 | T | T | -7.35 | 45.65 | 18 | 332.07895804053 | 23.273817082936 | 0.14031822703164 | 92 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |