MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 14, 2021

[ Monday, December 13, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 15, 2021 ]

DAY 75 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/15/2021 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 20.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.057
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 20

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.66 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 73 in
SWE DAY: 18
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.20 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 155

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-12-15 07:00:05OBSERVATION20227515520.8999415.1599218.0299372.519540.439999999999941.65999999999999.9611.62TT-11.1000619.8999418333.71752424734 24.2010413483560.0570805915759916 12151210WETL
2021-12-15 03:00:07OBSERVATION20227515520.8999415.1599218.0299372.519540.439999999999941.65999999999999.9611.62TT-11.1000619.8999418333.71752424734 24.2010413483560.0570805915759916 12151210WETL
2021-12-14 11:00:02FORECAST20227515520.7816.4218.671.1815895703660.19331.41339.9611.3733TT-11.2219.7818332.8182008205523.6905285723560.055266478174577161214128WETL
2021-12-14 07:00:04FORECAST20227515522.5716.5919.5871.1523374364210.19331.41339.9611.3733TT-9.4321.5718332.7985043997623.6793914833880.08745962001789161214128WETL
2021-12-14 03:00:07FORECAST20227515521.6416.8419.2471.3064895679330.21561.43569.9611.3956TT-10.3620.6418332.902283621223.7380932141760.06932649493116161214128WETL
2021-12-13 23:00:02FORECAST20227515522.9414.718.8269.4246734673780.22741.07749.9611.0374TT-9.0626.9418331.6326121404523.0234858089840.095581064166387161214128WETL
2021-12-13 19:00:01FORECAST20227515520.3914.9817.68569.6806038289730.26781.11789.9611.0778TT-11.6124.3918331.8056465012223.1204178020680.049679848441024161214128WETL
2021-12-13 15:00:02FORECAST20227515523.4916.9820.23570.2226546417450.36651.21659.9611.1765TT-8.5127.4918332.1717555301723.3259824703370.10865531478897161214128WETL
2021-12-13 11:00:02FORECAST20227515521.0817.8619.4771.1017200672310.34641.19649.9611.1564TT-10.9225.0818332.7644186083323.6601225402240.059891349864298161214128WETL
2021-12-13 07:00:07FORECAST20227515523.2516.8220.03570.6327149313380.23111.22119.9611.1811TT-8.7525.2518332.4483815310523.4817317620680.10280060517611161214128WETL
2021-12-13 03:00:07FORECAST20227515523.0916.0319.5671.3508110147670.20971.35979.9611.3197TT-8.9120.0918332.9321144508323.7549763789280.099026550631193161214128WETL
2021-12-12 23:00:02FORECAST20227515523.4215.5819.562.3166501292970.22491.17499.9611.1349TT-8.5829.4218326.7816610425220.3639384398570.10692352845662161214128WETL
2021-12-12 19:00:03FORECAST20227515523.417.0320.21561.6696814337380.16781.06789.9611.0278TT-8.630.418326.3357658746220.1250227219230.10643239793091161214128WETL
2021-12-12 15:00:01FORECAST20227515524.7118.1821.44562.2106012054150.2431.1139.9611.073TT-7.2931.7118326.708621613320.3247397695560.14211058254063161214128WETL
2021-12-12 11:00:04FORECAST20227515524.917.4721.18564.060615391790.32361.12369.9611.0836TT-7.130.918327.9799702763121.0105987320820.14788796626706161214128WETL
2021-12-12 07:00:06FORECAST20227515525.4517.2521.3564.0467772117780.33221.09229.9611.0522TT-6.5531.4518327.970482696621.0054524373080.16548489682076161214128WETL
2021-12-12 03:00:14FORECAST20227515521.7116.7619.23564.4765009685780.24561.17569.9611.1356TT-10.2926.7118328.2649495829721.1653753397370.070581987828331161214128WETL
2021-12-11 23:00:02FORECAST20227515525.6417.1221.3849.7662439745290.17961.43968.7610.1996TT-6.3634.6418317.9997100804315.8256511556920.17186557739552161214128WETL
2021-12-11 19:00:03FORECAST20227515526.8118.622.70551.3759651485450.421.758.7610.51TT-5.1932.8118319.1417996783616.3962179777190.21453474196991612151210WETL
2021-12-11 15:00:03FORECAST20227515526.3617.5521.95552.6325066202580.50441.91448.7610.6744TT-5.6435.3618320.0300703629516.8439847970590.197442294531411612151210WETL
2021-12-11 11:00:06FORECAST20227515525.4814.3719.92556.0408992667330.36051.82058.7610.5805TT-6.5234.4818322.4252954462818.0690035031520.166482081036191612151210WETL
2021-12-11 07:00:05FORECAST20227515523.1318.2320.6859.3179790439460.41621.84629.411.2462TT-8.8726.1318324.7087702499619.2610680290730.0999604557835731612151210WETL
2021-12-11 03:00:04FORECAST20227515526.2417.922.0761.2390925639130.37561.805610.0611.8656TT-5.7627.2418326.0385947537419.9663076835320.193026992795621612151210WETL
2021-12-10 23:00:05FORECAST20227515525.7317.9421.83560.9990748374010.42131.801310.4312.2313TT-6.2730.7318325.8728052692219.8779396360910.174941980699111612151210WETL
2021-12-10 19:00:04FORECAST20227515526.2816.6321.45559.6944819897390.28271.642710.3111.9527TT-5.7231.2818324.9699029162219.3989100168390.194492030427491612151210WETL
2021-12-10 15:00:03FORECAST20227515526.2917.1321.7159.5203231587270.22051.650510.211.8505TT-5.7131.2918324.8491419139619.3351259045540.194859342330421612151210WETL
2021-12-10 11:00:02FORECAST20227515525.3413.919.6261.4891507638180.17821.518210.1111.6282TT-6.6626.3418326.2112121101620.0584504022890.161861602748451612151210WETL
2021-12-10 09:23:04FORECAST20227515526.0516.721.37560.7155241596170.10711.467110.0911.5571TT-5.9527.0518325.6768156215619.7736385670980.1861603269177161214128WETL
2021-12-10 07:00:09FORECAST20227515526.0616.8121.43588.655558712220.10711.587110.1811.7671TT-5.9438.0618344.3262841963930.5264391047330.186517920340741612151210WETL
2021-12-10 03:00:09FORECAST20227515526.1116.7421.42589.1744599946870.10611.606110.2311.8361TT-5.8939.1118344.6602765504130.7348940430020.188312246664891612151210WETL
2021-12-09 23:00:02FORECAST20227515526.1616.4421.344.91238349960.17171.23179.7610.9917TT-5.8434.1618314.5275137811414.1261803201140.19011715909225161214128WETL
2021-12-09 19:00:04FORECAST20227515524.0317.3720.745.4315903951410.14161.26169.7210.9816TT-7.9732.0318314.9009749994714.3064521112060.12269311269723161214128WETL
2021-12-09 15:00:04FORECAST20227515524.0417.5220.7841.5415200990130.14161.17169.6610.8316TT-7.9637.0418312.0908641238312.9647289047180.12296451067071161214128WETL
2021-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20227515530.1113.7221.91543.644453223990.25661.18669.7710.9566TT-1.8945.1118313.6134293986613.6874866498050.362854187062371622141210WETL
2021-12-09 09:37:03FORECAST20227515530.1213.7321.92545.0054789634190.25661.25669.8311.0866TT-1.8843.1218314.5945128197614.1584767287170.363354361937361622141210WETL
2021-12-09 09:35:44FORECAST20227515530.1213.7321.92547.6823668800850.25661.25669.7611.0166TT-1.8836.1218316.5142566411215.0921489079390.363354361937361622141210WETL
2021-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST20227515527.516.4321.96549.057791450550.07451.15459.8711.0245TT-4.534.518317.4955846274815.5756321771250.24234367022725161214128WETL
2021-12-08 19:00:05FORECAST20227515525.6716.2520.9650.3425008933990.06311.22319.911.1231TT-6.3330.6718318.4090983738316.0295103193510.1728871937486161214128WETL
2021-12-08 15:00:02FORECAST20227515525.716.1320.91549.8428935015990.06311.20319.7910.9931TT-6.333.718318.054198507215.8527415439310.17391266214999161214128WETL
2021-12-08 11:00:02FORECAST20227515527.6918.9623.32555.1000443371720.53441.63449.6711.3044TT-4.3138.6918321.7661865964617.7293311476680.250330035852261622151212.5WETL
2021-12-08 10:37:50FORECAST20227515527.6918.9623.32555.1000443371720.53441.63449.6711.3044TT-4.3138.6918321.7661865964617.7293311476680.250330035852261622151212.5WETL
2021-12-08 07:00:07FORECAST20227515528.5421.3724.95566.8614119082540.74081.69089.7711.4608TT-3.4639.5418329.8933735496522.0571367347070.287694948530659222151212.5WETL
2021-12-08 03:00:13FORECAST20227515527.0522.0324.5467.6902956895140.74081.69089.9511.6408TT-4.9538.0518330.457031707122.3687341889330.223991129994719212151210WETL
2021-12-07 23:00:03FORECAST20227515526.0618.9122.48556.577452854650.24291.402910.5511.9529TT-5.9450.0618322.8004693664718.263228337040.18651792034074921214128WETL
2021-12-07 19:00:03FORECAST20227515529.5618.9924.27554.0187328538370.06411.094110.5111.6041TT-2.4451.5618321.0067340188217.3403770092450.335725659206959222141210WETL
2021-12-07 15:00:03FORECAST20227515528.8219.5524.18554.2781768766180.05041.060410.4411.5004TT-3.1849.8218321.1891431986317.4335611253850.300555265303529222141210WETL
2021-12-07 12:27:39FORECAST20227515526.2524.9225.58552.9517933932390.08840.848410.5111.3584TT-5.7544.2518320.255328300416.9580939772470.19339262037545921213126WETL
2021-12-07 11:00:04FORECAST20227515526.2524.9125.5869.3800564017180.08410.844110.5811.4241TT-5.7548.2518331.6024350539423.0065956469890.19339262037545921213126WETL
2021-12-07 07:00:16FORECAST20227515525.1823.7224.4570.2606677317140.06990.819910.5411.3599TT-6.8243.1818332.197411216823.3404119308390.15668410575466921213126WETL
2021-12-07 03:00:09FORECAST20227515524.6523.7224.18570.0851906434140.05950.809510.4811.2895TT-7.3545.6518332.0789580405323.2738170829360.14031822703164921213126WETL