Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 13, 2021
[
Sunday, December 12, 2021 |
Index |
Today |
Tuesday, December 14, 2021 ]
DAY 74
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/14/2021 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.63°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.05°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.247
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 35
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.58 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.36 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.83 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 70 in
SWE DAY: 19
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 23.30 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 154
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-14 07:00:03 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 26.45996 | 19.63004 | 23.045 | 69.980175 | 0.58000000000004 | 3.36 | 8.47 | 11.83 | T | T | -5.54004 | 35.45996 | 19 | 333.01651567294 | 23.304554044683 | 0.2465269767988 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-14 03:00:06 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 26.45996 | 19.63004 | 23.045 | 69.980175 | 0.58000000000004 | 3.36 | 8.47 | 11.83 | T | T | -5.54004 | 35.45996 | 19 | 333.01651567294 | 23.304554044683 | 0.2465269767988 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 31.33 | 20.77 | 26.05 | 68.947396663912 | 0.2074 | 2.9874 | 8.47 | 11.4574 | T | T | -0.67 | 40.33 | 19 | 332.32074603319 | 22.912650296397 | 0.4611369863226 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.23 | 22.28 | 25.755 | 69.210110724157 | 0.3491 | 3.1291 | 8.47 | 11.5991 | T | T | -2.77 | 38.23 | 19 | 332.49790628413 | 23.012216909475 | 0.36277094602545 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 24.45 | 21.83 | 23.14 | 70.060808653477 | 0.5085 | 3.2885 | 8.47 | 11.7585 | T | T | -7.55 | 33.45 | 19 | 333.07076076644 | 23.335206838126 | 0.17665987198814 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 28.87 | 21.77 | 25.32 | 60.904252609557 | 0.5898 | 3.0898 | 8.47 | 11.5598 | T | T | -3.13 | 41.87 | 19 | 326.83927036052 | 19.905901484761 | 0.34659919237193 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.66 | 22.74 | 26.2 | 60.655588830765 | 0.5425 | 3.0425 | 8.47 | 11.5125 | T | T | -2.34 | 42.66 | 19 | 326.66801269983 | 19.814240662484 | 0.38241049788276 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.61 | 21.9 | 25.755 | 60.68536867488 | 0.5145 | 3.0145 | 8.47 | 11.4845 | T | T | -2.39 | 42.61 | 19 | 326.68852812953 | 19.825213771394 | 0.38011012105227 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.44 | 21.99 | 25.715 | 61.972207651771 | 0.4361 | 2.9361 | 8.47 | 11.4061 | T | T | -2.56 | 42.44 | 19 | 327.57355490734 | 20.300456365946 | 0.37232094608762 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.88 | 21.69 | 25.785 | 61.799021764596 | 0.3115 | 2.9015 | 8.47 | 11.3715 | T | T | -2.12 | 41.88 | 19 | 327.45461426667 | 20.236374833983 | 0.39258049369635 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.95 | 21.68 | 25.815 | 62.7391958715 | 0.3843 | 3.0743 | 8.47 | 11.5443 | T | T | -2.05 | 40.95 | 19 | 328.09967874197 | 20.584710009968 | 0.39583220969177 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.81 | 22.22 | 26.015 | 48.57377673734 | 0.3641 | 2.2041 | 8.47 | 10.6741 | T | T | -2.19 | 44.81 | 19 | 318.21546729211 | 15.456927062616 | 0.38933625695196 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.43 | 22.88 | 26.655 | 48.745952772103 | 0.3654 | 2.2654 | 8.47 | 10.7354 | T | T | -1.57 | 42.43 | 19 | 318.337754184 | 15.517677131031 | 0.41831387848403 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.93 | 22.45 | 26.19 | 49.226130265184 | 0.4211 | 2.3511 | 8.47 | 10.8211 | T | T | -2.07 | 44.93 | 19 | 318.67851466318 | 15.687310075525 | 0.39490239731301 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.33 | 22.95 | 26.64 | 53.601173607482 | 0.4619 | 2.4019 | 8.47 | 10.8719 | T | T | -1.67 | 45.33 | 19 | 321.76421729879 | 17.246939672108 | 0.41360551471914 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.52 | 22.95 | 26.735 | 56.326530723317 | 0.4355 | 3.0055 | 8.47 | 11.4755 | T | T | -1.48 | 38.52 | 19 | 323.66914065998 | 18.231159795574 | 0.4225614558395 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.19 | 21.94 | 26.065 | 58.644401540403 | 0.4225 | 3.6725 | 8.47 | 12.1425 | T | T | -1.81 | 37.19 | 19 | 325.27890189593 | 19.075786535406 | 0.40703476157499 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.31 | 22.09 | 26.2 | 58.095299297962 | 0.3892 | 3.8892 | 8.57 | 12.4592 | T | T | -1.69 | 41.31 | 19 | 324.89840660045 | 18.875070172884 | 0.41266530756772 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.37 | 22.83 | 26.6 | 57.604075863167 | 0.4269 | 3.7469 | 8.57 | 12.3169 | T | T | -1.63 | 41.37 | 19 | 324.55756786889 | 18.695838761484 | 0.41548741031389 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.62 | 21.71 | 25.665 | 57.854660852412 | 0.4007 | 3.7107 | 8.57 | 12.2807 | T | T | -2.38 | 40.62 | 19 | 324.73149110963 | 18.787230286246 | 0.38056986029306 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.01 | 23.22 | 26.615 | 60.168734592219 | 0.3385 | 3.5285 | 8.57 | 12.0985 | T | T | -1.99 | 37.01 | 19 | 326.33239710552 | 19.635007390285 | 0.39862518456814 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 09:23:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 25.19 | 21.6 | 23.395 | 59.901893743511 | 0.3465 | 3.5265 | 8.57 | 12.0965 | T | T | -6.81 | 37.19 | 19 | 326.14827277779 | 19.536899180564 | 0.20079064450942 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.85 | 22.08 | 26.465 | 87.831014293135 | 0.3409 | 3.6809 | 8.63 | 12.3109 | T | T | -1.15 | 47.85 | 19 | 344.75842537715 | 30.280482186979 | 0.43820940744139 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 31.04 | 22.15 | 26.595 | 88.350076232728 | 0.3469 | 3.6969 | 8.68 | 12.3769 | T | T | -0.96 | 49.04 | 19 | 345.09195170345 | 30.488900240301 | 0.44726449521494 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.12 | 19.6 | 24.86 | 43.568063576653 | 0.2399 | 3.2999 | 8.17 | 11.4699 | T | T | -1.88 | 44.12 | 19 | 314.63671225512 | 13.70811228308 | 0.40375904601837 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.39 | 19.06 | 24.725 | 44.312089364612 | 0.2333 | 3.3033 | 8.19 | 11.4933 | T | T | -1.61 | 44.39 | 19 | 315.17152492943 | 13.965908777854 | 0.41642908830542 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.41 | 19.18 | 24.795 | 40.446120202977 | 0.2043 | 3.1443 | 8.2 | 11.3443 | T | T | -1.59 | 49.41 | 19 | 312.38157963055 | 12.634622918933 | 0.41737124611109 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 31.35 | 20.1 | 25.725 | 41.963736618995 | 0.2967 | 3.0767 | 8.27 | 11.3467 | T | T | -0.65 | 51.35 | 19 | 313.48006198753 | 13.154794756551 | 0.46209565208237 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:37:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.81 | 20.28 | 25.045 | 43.315554555686 | 0.3057 | 3.1457 | 8.33 | 11.4757 | T | T | -2.19 | 48.81 | 19 | 314.45497658111 | 13.620791693406 | 0.38933625695196 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:35:44 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.81 | 20.28 | 25.045 | 45.992442472352 | 0.3057 | 3.1457 | 8.26 | 11.4057 | T | T | -2.19 | 41.81 | 19 | 316.37566593244 | 14.55088961505 | 0.38933625695196 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.39 | 18.69 | 24.54 | 48.360733783085 | 0.3327 | 3.2727 | 8.33 | 11.6027 | T | T | -1.61 | 43.39 | 19 | 318.06408089548 | 15.381812342148 | 0.41642908830542 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.15 | 16.26 | 23.205 | 49.689271387603 | 0.4063 | 3.3463 | 8.36 | 11.7063 | T | T | -1.85 | 41.15 | 19 | 319.00679167471 | 15.851215046013 | 0.40516211224649 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.21 | 16.27 | 23.24 | 49.173014831959 | 0.4063 | 3.1563 | 8.42 | 11.5763 | T | T | -1.79 | 44.21 | 19 | 318.64084145772 | 15.668530823069 | 0.40797188653104 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.89 | 19.16 | 24.525 | 50.119947156341 | 0.3823 | 2.9823 | 8.44 | 11.4223 | T | T | -2.11 | 46.89 | 19 | 319.31171073542 | 16.00388606846 | 0.39304457164354 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 10:37:50 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 29.89 | 19.16 | 24.525 | 50.119947156341 | 0.3823 | 2.9823 | 8.44 | 11.4223 | T | T | -2.11 | 46.89 | 19 | 319.31171073542 | 16.00388606846 | 0.39304457164354 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.44 | 19.62 | 25.03 | 60.597697041165 | 0.3192 | 2.8192 | 8.55 | 11.3692 | T | T | -1.56 | 47.44 | 19 | 326.6281264203 | 19.792912249941 | 0.41878537099132 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.47 | 19.64 | 25.055 | 61.331599788782 | 0.3192 | 2.8192 | 8.73 | 11.5492 | T | T | -1.53 | 47.47 | 19 | 327.13333680975 | 20.063610890784 | 0.42020054590313 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 31.32 | 22.26 | 26.79 | 54.508284125452 | 0.4995 | 3.2995 | 9.06 | 12.3595 | T | T | -0.68 | 60.32 | 19 | 322.39971851006 | 17.573455458512 | 0.46065773776505 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.66 | 20.13 | 25.395 | 53.28730994675 | 0.4044 | 3.1544 | 9.04 | 12.1944 | T | T | -1.34 | 57.66 | 19 | 321.54399029791 | 17.134214272519 | 0.42918655382425 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.66 | 20.23 | 25.445 | 53.685644870498 | 0.4044 | 3.1344 | 8.97 | 12.1044 | T | T | -1.34 | 56.66 | 19 | 321.82345781068 | 17.27729986702 | 0.42918655382425 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 12:27:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 31.08 | 22.17 | 26.625 | 52.319906213546 | 0.1667 | 3.0267 | 8.89 | 11.9167 | T | T | -0.92 | 54.08 | 19 | 320.86409181275 | 16.787579190937 | 0.44917449998543 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 31.09 | 22.19 | 26.64 | 68.779107200579 | 0.1667 | 3.0267 | 8.96 | 11.9867 | T | T | -0.91 | 58.09 | 19 | 332.20719852377 | 22.84891452007 | 0.44965218701571 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 31.23 | 18.66 | 24.945 | 69.688720461065 | 0.1542 | 2.9442 | 9 | 11.9442 | T | T | -0.77 | 54.23 | 19 | 332.82035127795 | 23.193824423962 | 0.45634715480723 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 31.2 | 18.1 | 24.65 | 69.565233462465 | 0.1542 | 2.9442 | 8.94 | 11.8842 | T | T | -0.8 | 57.2 | 19 | 332.73719415609 | 23.146940593114 | 0.45491140927131 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.44 | 18.23 | 24.335 | 50.340295986221 | 0.1561 | 3.7861 | 7.9 | 11.6861 | T | T | -1.56 | 60.44 | 19 | 319.46758908292 | 16.082092992439 | 0.41878537099132 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.98 | 18.8 | 24.89 | 49.368030416007 | 0.1007 | 3.5907 | 7.81 | 11.4007 | T | T | -1.02 | 68.98 | 19 | 318.77913531896 | 15.737498048415 | 0.44440179328788 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 30.87 | 18.51 | 24.69 | 48.661692836075 | 0.0471 | 3.6671 | 7.67 | 11.3371 | T | T | -1.13 | 64.87 | 19 | 318.27791580266 | 15.487942175295 | 0.43916113711995 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 21.17 | 18.57 | 19.87 | 60.376237170085 | 0.3258 | 4.1258 | 7.63 | 11.7558 | T | T | -10.83 | 52.17 | 19 | 326.47549087622 | 19.711361667363 | 0.092658538317014 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 27.53 | 26.74 | 27.135 | 61.042628823349 | 0.2851 | 4.1751 | 8.03 | 12.2051 | T | T | -4.47 | 50.53 | 19 | 326.93452484771 | 19.956942849817 | 0.28901047610884 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 74 | 154 | 27.44 | 27.32 | 27.38 | 60.564390311945 | 0.0933 | 3.9833 | 8.16 | 12.1433 | T | T | -4.56 | 58.44 | 19 | 326.60517609528 | 19.780643362936 | 0.28530862165228 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |