Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 12, 2021
[
Saturday, December 11, 2021 |
Index |
Today |
Monday, December 13, 2021 ]
DAY 73
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/13/2021 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.00°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.171
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 49
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.64 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.95 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.22 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 68 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 332.40 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.46 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 153
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2021-12-13 07:00:06 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 24.18008 | 17.81996 | 21.00002 | 67.570402916667 | 0.63999999999999 | 3.27 | 8.95 | 12.22 | T | T | -7.81992 | 49.18008 | 20 | 332.4010545844 | 22.460473188193 | 0.17077513221518 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-13 03:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 24.18008 | 17.81996 | 21.00002 | 67.570402916667 | 0.63999999999999 | 3.27 | 8.95 | 12.22 | T | T | -7.81992 | 49.18008 | 20 | 332.4010545844 | 22.460473188193 | 0.17077513221518 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 27.53 | 20.67 | 24.1 | 59.67981695593 | 0.3577 | 2.9877 | 8.95 | 11.9377 | T | T | -4.47 | 52.53 | 20 | 327.02621972339 | 19.516864932882 | 0.27825061406735 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 27.34 | 19.1 | 23.22 | 60.158610531774 | 0.4508 | 3.0808 | 8.95 | 12.0308 | T | T | -4.66 | 52.34 | 20 | 327.35543876499 | 19.693248346121 | 0.27138351479859 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-12 03:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 26.32 | 20.22 | 23.27 | 60.756571326866 | 0.5473 | 3.1773 | 8.95 | 12.1273 | T | T | -5.68 | 51.32 | 20 | 327.76603547872 | 19.913940513087 | 0.23601989801114 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 27.67 | 18.55 | 23.11 | 46.625987206785 | 0.9017 | 2.3317 | 8.95 | 11.2817 | T | T | -4.33 | 54.67 | 20 | 317.89437716872 | 14.822139162978 | 0.2833641464636 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 25.5 | 21.84 | 23.67 | 46.813496861419 | 0.9621 | 2.3921 | 8.95 | 11.3421 | T | T | -6.5 | 52.5 | 20 | 318.02770496027 | 14.887988968002 | 0.20953611039545 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28 | 21.71 | 24.855 | 46.987312326157 | 0.9909 | 2.4209 | 8.95 | 11.3709 | T | T | -4 | 55 | 20 | 318.15123886659 | 14.949071627578 | 0.2955924175637 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28 | 21.82 | 24.91 | 51.063055145399 | 1.0031 | 2.4331 | 8.95 | 11.3831 | T | T | -4 | 55 | 20 | 321.03236722887 | 16.392893471266 | 0.2955924175637 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 24.27 | 21.18 | 22.725 | 53.926423604401 | 0.9941 | 3.0641 | 8.95 | 12.0141 | T | T | -7.73 | 48.27 | 20 | 323.03870844872 | 17.420322232424 | 0.17326065189914 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-11 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 24.45 | 21.54 | 22.995 | 56.268209867889 | 1.0058 | 3.7358 | 8.95 | 12.6858 | T | T | -7.55 | 47.45 | 20 | 324.6687683809 | 18.268530396806 | 0.17830475824494 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 24.17 | 21.49 | 22.83 | 55.865461958626 | 0.9905 | 4.0905 | 8.95 | 13.0405 | T | T | -7.83 | 51.17 | 20 | 324.38911536512 | 18.122147784223 | 0.17049793225335 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.72 | 21.35 | 22.535 | 55.162185314375 | 0.9314 | 3.9114 | 8.95 | 12.8614 | T | T | -8.28 | 50.72 | 20 | 323.9001000301 | 17.867037341205 | 0.1584162741078 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.73 | 21.29 | 22.51 | 55.537533467393 | 1.0269 | 3.8969 | 8.95 | 12.8469 | T | T | -8.27 | 50.73 | 20 | 324.16120274991 | 18.003113646554 | 0.15867851612469 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.93 | 21.15 | 22.54 | 58.24157702258 | 1.0045 | 3.7845 | 8.95 | 12.7345 | T | T | -8.07 | 46.93 | 20 | 326.03487308836 | 18.988785173023 | 0.1639829320805 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 09:23:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.77 | 21.29 | 22.53 | 57.737613707058 | 1.0067 | 3.7667 | 8.95 | 12.7167 | T | T | -8.23 | 51.77 | 20 | 325.68664472926 | 18.804369682926 | 0.15973032136842 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.56 | 21.9 | 25.23 | 85.827138931149 | 1.1396 | 3.9896 | 8.95 | 12.9396 | T | T | -3.44 | 56.56 | 20 | 344.43170171705 | 29.561587515561 | 0.31687928668404 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-10 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.62 | 21.78 | 25.2 | 86.286926564913 | 1.1483 | 4.0483 | 8.95 | 12.9983 | T | T | -3.38 | 57.62 | 20 | 344.72754456814 | 29.745480323054 | 0.31919809764071 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.75 | 21.89 | 22.82 | 41.996957596551 | 0.8164 | 3.7864 | 8.41 | 12.1964 | T | T | -8.25 | 53.75 | 20 | 314.58271452338 | 13.211516922446 | 0.15920385131441 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.67 | 20.95 | 22.31 | 42.705799532102 | 0.8887 | 3.8187 | 8.41 | 12.2287 | T | T | -8.33 | 53.67 | 20 | 315.09235661044 | 13.456271015503 | 0.15710931979846 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.59 | 19.8 | 24.195 | 39.085550736284 | 0.8326 | 3.7026 | 8.41 | 12.1126 | T | T | -3.41 | 58.59 | 20 | 312.47982490313 | 12.213446050316 | 0.31803780122872 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.8 | 19.27 | 24.035 | 40.286080746671 | 0.6305 | 3.6105 | 8.41 | 12.0205 | T | T | -3.2 | 59.8 | 20 | 313.34884419326 | 12.623596839046 | 0.32619675901025 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:37:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.66 | 19.61 | 21.635 | 41.381037503376 | 0.687 | 3.687 | 8.45 | 12.137 | T | T | -8.34 | 58.66 | 20 | 314.13913558366 | 12.999403350866 | 0.15684878008043 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-09 09:35:44 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.66 | 19.61 | 21.635 | 44.057925420043 | 0.687 | 3.687 | 8.38 | 12.067 | T | T | -8.34 | 51.66 | 20 | 316.061965147 | 13.925034488559 | 0.15684878008043 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 26.48 | 20.29 | 23.385 | 46.106810734488 | 0.7523 | 3.6223 | 8.62 | 12.2423 | T | T | -5.52 | 53.48 | 20 | 317.524887876 | 14.640059908788 | 0.24139407001094 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.69 | 17.93 | 23.31 | 46.678356599409 | 0.7543 | 3.6443 | 8.63 | 12.2743 | T | T | -3.31 | 50.69 | 20 | 317.93162055161 | 14.840525558336 | 0.32191233188963 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.72 | 17.93 | 23.325 | 46.104623280346 | 0.7257 | 3.4357 | 8.7 | 12.1357 | T | T | -3.28 | 53.72 | 20 | 317.52333007012 | 14.639293515604 | 0.32307849886834 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.53 | 20.24 | 24.385 | 47.359493275979 | 0.7179 | 3.2779 | 8.73 | 12.0079 | T | T | -3.47 | 56.53 | 20 | 318.41557149031 | 15.080000116962 | 0.31572256346637 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 10:37:50 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.53 | 20.24 | 24.385 | 47.359493275979 | 0.7179 | 3.2779 | 8.73 | 12.0079 | T | T | -3.47 | 56.53 | 20 | 318.41557149031 | 15.080000116962 | 0.31572256346637 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 22.73 | 20.71 | 21.72 | 58.305588409693 | 0.6279 | 3.1279 | 8.89 | 12.0179 | T | T | -9.27 | 56.73 | 20 | 326.07907175341 | 19.012232146669 | 0.13385614753613 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-08 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 22.75 | 20.77 | 21.76 | 59.035153754183 | 0.6279 | 3.1479 | 9.05 | 12.1979 | T | T | -9.25 | 56.75 | 20 | 326.58231559789 | 19.279837214718 | 0.13432493993651 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 29.36 | 18.29 | 23.825 | 50.923694675985 | 0.6641 | 3.4441 | 9.39 | 12.8341 | T | T | -2.64 | 69.36 | 20 | 320.93434549694 | 16.343162621123 | 0.34835518595475 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 29.13 | 20.08 | 24.605 | 50.159594170617 | 0.6285 | 3.3385 | 9.42 | 12.7585 | T | T | -2.87 | 67.13 | 20 | 320.39628435189 | 16.070947596864 | 0.33918634556657 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.79 | 20.79 | 24.79 | 50.469800361424 | 0.6133 | 3.3233 | 9.35 | 12.6733 | T | T | -3.21 | 65.79 | 20 | 320.61484999529 | 16.18136747217 | 0.3258063060434 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 12:27:39 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.87 | 21.15 | 22.51 | 51.022454745481 | 0.5875 | 3.4375 | 9.28 | 12.7175 | T | T | -8.13 | 62.87 | 20 | 321.0038137776 | 16.378402561595 | 0.16237969347316 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 27.35 | 20.23 | 23.79 | 67.4615413076 | 0.5875 | 3.4675 | 9.32 | 12.7875 | T | T | -4.65 | 67.35 | 20 | 332.32763172214 | 22.41933425508 | 0.2717428278143 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 24.02 | 19.15 | 21.585 | 68.276755290765 | 0.5962 | 3.3962 | 9.36 | 12.7562 | T | T | -7.98 | 63.02 | 20 | 332.87696848829 | 22.727759319406 | 0.16640692987262 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-07 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 27.17 | 18.67 | 22.92 | 68.1141109291 | 0.5962 | 3.3662 | 9.33 | 12.6962 | T | T | -4.83 | 66.17 | 20 | 332.7674604355 | 22.666159713699 | 0.26531160590669 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 23.37 | 18.55 | 20.96 | 48.621954202075 | 0.8577 | 4.0877 | 8.41 | 12.4977 | T | T | -8.63 | 70.37 | 20 | 319.31034506335 | 15.525492973919 | 0.1494165061059 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.79 | 17.73 | 23.26 | 48.28548339942 | 0.736 | 3.916 | 8.35 | 12.266 | T | T | -3.21 | 77.79 | 20 | 319.07215058967 | 15.406553030515 | 0.3258063060434 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 28.83 | 17.52 | 23.175 | 48.123529448867 | 0.736 | 4.006 | 8.25 | 12.256 | T | T | -3.17 | 73.83 | 20 | 318.95742752466 | 15.349357156418 | 0.32736925924925 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 24.19 | 19.6 | 21.895 | 55.97499805125 | 0.782 | 4.122 | 8.28 | 12.402 | T | T | -7.81 | 71.19 | 20 | 324.46520143676 | 18.161939018121 | 0.17104821291961 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 07:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 29.46 | 25.9 | 27.68 | 58.487372392137 | 0.7632 | 4.3432 | 8.55 | 12.8932 | T | T | -2.54 | 63.46 | 20 | 326.20455101708 | 19.078847051346 | 0.35236981957831 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-06 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 29.63 | 25.65 | 27.64 | 59.670189103581 | 0.7632 | 4.2432 | 8.78 | 13.0232 | T | T | -2.37 | 70.63 | 20 | 327.01959549318 | 19.513321103655 | 0.35923236374109 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 29.5 | 25.21 | 27.355 | 56.965457564879 | 0.5796 | 4.7496 | 8.77 | 13.5196 | T | T | -2.5 | 71.5 | 20 | 325.15223515386 | 18.522445853783 | 0.35398031774808 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 29.02 | 26.12 | 27.57 | 55.035285424957 | 0.4732 | 4.3632 | 8.91 | 13.2732 | T | T | -2.98 | 81.02 | 20 | 323.81176858032 | 17.821073107778 | 0.33483426034246 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 29.24 | 25.12 | 27.18 | 57.368059286085 | 0.4284 | 4.3184 | 8.91 | 13.2284 | T | T | -2.76 | 78.24 | 20 | 325.43100674023 | 18.669345288204 | 0.34355997963151 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 29.89 | 27.84 | 28.865 | 64.45900786647 | 1.7842 | 5.1342 | 8.95 | 14.0842 | T | T | -2.11 | 72.89 | 20 | 330.2945184848 | 21.290456965264 | 0.36981571084992 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 07:00:18 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 29.74 | 28.94 | 29.34 | 62.331576570357 | 1.4483 | 4.7983 | 9.11 | 13.9083 | T | T | -2.26 | 71.74 | 20 | 328.8445512548 | 20.497399326283 | 0.36369731186624 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2021-12-05 03:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 73 | 153 | 31.44 | 30.44 | 30.94 | 54.101504096556 | 0.7712 | 4.2012 | 9.13 | 13.3312 | T | T | -0.56 | 75.44 | 20 | 323.16091331369 | 17.483491475487 | 0.43470541545946 | 93 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |