Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 20, 2021
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Friday, November 19, 2021 |
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Sunday, November 21, 2021 ]
DAY 51
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/21/2021 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.84°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.264
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 68
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.53 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 19.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 21.11 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 42
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 323.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.80 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 131
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-21 07:00:12 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 30.27002 | 23.41004 | 26.84003 | 21.035562173913 | 0.069999999999936 | 1.5299999999999 | 19.58 | 21.11 | T | T | -1.72998 | 68.27002 | 42 | 323.05443335391 | 6.7956316183744 | 0.26434220167266 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-21 03:00:07 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 30.27002 | 23.41004 | 26.84003 | 21.035562173913 | 0.069999999999936 | 1.5299999999999 | 19.58 | 21.11 | T | T | -1.72998 | 68.27002 | 42 | 323.05443335391 | 6.7956316183744 | 0.26434220167266 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 35.92 | 28.01 | 31.965 | 45.955490071211 | 0.0046 | 1.4646 | 19.58 | 21.0446 | T | T | 3.92 | 73.92 | 42 | 339.91208384086 | 15.620826394033 | 0.49894483508408 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 36.01 | 24.82 | 30.415 | 45.826723654378 | 0.0055 | 1.4655 | 19.58 | 21.0455 | T | T | 4.01 | 74.01 | 42 | 339.82769078448 | 15.573189675686 | 0.50293154371166 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 32.5 | 24.28 | 28.39 | 45.890435283865 | 0.0064 | 1.4664 | 19.58 | 21.0464 | T | T | 0.5 | 70.5 | 42 | 339.8694506121 | 15.596757028277 | 0.35108585096489 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 35.3 | 24.68 | 29.99 | 13.97317865106 | 0.007 | 0.737 | 19.58 | 20.317 | T | T | 3.3 | 75.3 | 42 | 318.07964212837 | 4.444583664725 | 0.47150492322344 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.96 | 24.25 | 29.605 | 13.99497737711 | 0.0108 | 0.7408 | 19.58 | 20.3208 | T | T | 2.96 | 74.96 | 42 | 318.09513500686 | 4.4517342181898 | 0.45650616756284 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.23 | 24.95 | 29.59 | 14.003308017416 | 0.0106 | 0.7406 | 19.58 | 20.3206 | T | T | 2.23 | 74.23 | 42 | 318.10105556658 | 4.4544670617641 | 0.42453848375996 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.08 | 24.96 | 29.52 | 14.111193975776 | 0.0121 | 0.7421 | 19.58 | 20.3221 | T | T | 2.08 | 74.08 | 42 | 318.17771846039 | 4.4898675039645 | 0.41802377065166 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 07:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.23 | 25.06 | 29.645 | 14.499212655184 | 0.0138 | 0.8038 | 19.58 | 20.3838 | T | T | 2.23 | 73.23 | 42 | 318.45326782636 | 4.6173216509527 | 0.42453848375996 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.22 | 25.16 | 29.69 | 15.359583384345 | 0.0156 | 1.0956 | 19.58 | 20.6756 | T | T | 2.22 | 71.22 | 42 | 319.06328761611 | 4.9006791710229 | 0.42410350696247 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.4 | 25.66 | 30.03 | 16.731855916526 | 0.025 | 1.755 | 19.58 | 21.335 | T | T | 2.4 | 74.4 | 42 | 320.03350126084 | 5.3547544315578 | 0.43194672827893 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.26 | 26.15 | 30.205 | 16.992765024911 | 0.0291 | 1.8491 | 19.58 | 21.4291 | T | T | 2.26 | 74.26 | 42 | 320.21758492425 | 5.4413821774624 | 0.42584396352565 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.39 | 26.28 | 30.335 | 16.668112003391 | 0.029 | 1.699 | 19.58 | 21.279 | T | T | 2.39 | 74.39 | 42 | 319.98850838174 | 5.3336042975047 | 0.43151025958473 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.28 | 26.25 | 30.265 | 17.458374992646 | 0.0353 | 1.7253 | 19.58 | 21.3053 | T | T | 2.28 | 74.28 | 42 | 320.54579172804 | 5.5962086343028 | 0.42671473600748 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.02 | 25.62 | 29.82 | 18.055573347156 | 0.0418 | 1.6918 | 19.58 | 21.2718 | T | T | 2.02 | 73.02 | 42 | 320.96618691317 | 5.7952285297676 | 0.41542406438577 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.06 | 25.88 | 29.97 | 17.065828203103 | 0.0388 | 1.7088 | 19.58 | 21.2888 | T | T | 2.06 | 73.06 | 42 | 320.26911257666 | 5.4656576539936 | 0.41715679797373 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.6 | 25.8 | 30.2 | 14.712281279644 | 0.0398 | 1.6098 | 19.59 | 21.1998 | T | T | 2.6 | 83.6 | 42 | 318.60446189031 | 4.6873984602799 | 0.44069285151027 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.27 | 25.49 | 29.88 | 14.538009870122 | 0.0558 | 1.6658 | 19.59 | 21.2558 | T | T | 2.27 | 83.27 | 42 | 318.48080452706 | 4.6300770796587 | 0.4262793048479 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.7 | 25.51 | 30.105 | 14.535889628667 | 0.1001 | 1.4801 | 19.59 | 21.0701 | T | T | 2.7 | 81.7 | 42 | 318.47929973516 | 4.6293799499655 | 0.44507706200797 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 35.08 | 24.88 | 29.98 | 13.930096510379 | 0.0978 | 1.2978 | 19.59 | 20.8878 | T | T | 3.08 | 86.08 | 42 | 318.04902009248 | 4.4304535449198 | 0.46179388513922 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 29.2 | 25.19 | 27.195 | 14.517782663205 | 0.0613 | 1.0013 | 19.58 | 20.5813 | T | T | -2.8 | 83.2 | 42 | 318.46644840878 | 4.6234266835214 | 0.22697383741861 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.84 | 24.38 | 29.61 | 14.397662156602 | 0.0078 | 0.8778 | 19.58 | 20.4578 | T | T | 2.84 | 83.84 | 42 | 318.38117852382 | 4.5839446454068 | 0.45122614045321 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.28 | 22.78 | 28.53 | 12.472199595887 | 0.0045 | 0.9945 | 19.14 | 20.1345 | T | T | 2.28 | 86.28 | 42 | 317.01079451852 | 3.9538219032856 | 0.42671473600748 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 33.96 | 22.96 | 28.46 | 12.486260688342 | 0.0061 | 1.3261 | 19.14 | 20.4661 | T | T | 1.96 | 82.96 | 42 | 317.02082634646 | 3.9584046813956 | 0.41282805457279 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 33.96 | 22.96 | 28.46 | 12.10504890478 | 0.0073 | 1.1073 | 19.14 | 20.2473 | T | T | 1.96 | 83.96 | 42 | 316.74872552819 | 3.8342588130456 | 0.41282805457279 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.85 | 24.01 | 29.43 | 12.627675748764 | 0.039 | 0.849 | 19.14 | 19.989 | T | T | 2.85 | 84.85 | 42 | 317.12169841414 | 4.004509980471 | 0.45166582638764 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 09:30:30 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 33.64 | 23.47 | 28.555 | 12.75617191413 | 0.0473 | 0.8573 | 19.14 | 19.9973 | T | T | 1.64 | 83.64 | 42 | 317.21332395602 | 4.0464276938354 | 0.39904960556213 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 33.65 | 23.48 | 28.565 | 79.978278868573 | 0.0473 | 0.7573 | 19.16 | 19.9173 | T | T | 1.65 | 85.65 | 42 | 361.27068057056 | 28.893807237712 | 0.39947837984378 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 30.47 | 23.43 | 26.95 | 80.599417175268 | 0.0475 | 0.9475 | 19.23 | 20.1775 | T | T | -1.53 | 74.47 | 42 | 361.64371424555 | 29.14827259329 | 0.2716575228174 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 37.02 | 22.76 | 29.89 | 8.9438704410189 | 0.0075 | 1.4675 | 19.88 | 21.3475 | T | T | 5.02 | 90.02 | 42 | 314.48216398953 | 2.8126877307336 | 0.54755840363458 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 36.82 | 25.09 | 30.955 | 9.3150578349548 | 0.0094 | 1.3994 | 19.88 | 21.2794 | T | T | 4.82 | 88.82 | 42 | 314.74924892875 | 2.9319074572799 | 0.53875105812307 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 36.79 | 25.11 | 30.95 | 8.481500069034 | 0.0094 | 1.5294 | 19.93 | 21.4594 | T | T | 4.79 | 85.79 | 42 | 314.1491166729 | 2.6644557547482 | 0.5374282081999 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 14:54:21 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 36.79 | 25.11 | 30.95 | 8.481500069034 | 0.0094 | 1.5294 | 19.93 | 21.4594 | T | T | 4.79 | 85.79 | 42 | 314.1491166729 | 2.6644557547482 | 0.5374282081999 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 37.02 | 24.09 | 30.555 | 61.097874235416 | 0.0097 | 0.8497 | 19.93 | 20.7797 | T | T | 5.02 | 88.02 | 42 | 349.6463287203 | 21.362647419028 | 0.54755840363458 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 37.11 | 24.09 | 30.6 | 62.003750651312 | 0.0097 | 0.8397 | 20.06 | 20.8997 | T | T | 5.11 | 87.11 | 42 | 350.21688541495 | 21.714760437148 | 0.55151435041744 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 37.64 | 24.17 | 30.905 | 61.780287320767 | 0.003 | 0.873 | 20.08 | 20.953 | T | T | 5.64 | 94.64 | 42 | 350.07626135183 | 21.627812010496 | 0.57469397387639 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 33.8 | 24.97 | 29.385 | 39.87235191522 | 0.2613 | 1.7213 | 18.58 | 20.3013 | T | T | 1.8 | 94.8 | 42 | 335.89491338113 | 13.392920192865 | 0.40592426626127 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 33.96 | 26.2 | 30.08 | 46.548607643429 | 0.1777 | 1.4077 | 18.59 | 19.9977 | T | T | 1.96 | 91.96 | 42 | 340.30045482624 | 15.840512352587 | 0.41282805457279 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 33.92 | 26.26 | 30.09 | 47.270355646954 | 0.1777 | 1.4077 | 18.71 | 20.1177 | T | T | 1.92 | 91.92 | 42 | 340.77226399629 | 16.108426113722 | 0.41109948916253 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 35.39 | 25.08 | 30.235 | 49.135862923065 | 0.1191 | 1.6491 | 18.54 | 20.1891 | T | T | 3.39 | 89.39 | 42 | 341.98775309481 | 16.803863357434 | 0.47548284006749 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 34.8 | 24.59 | 29.695 | 49.606030963592 | 0.1191 | 1.7591 | 18.66 | 20.4191 | T | T | 2.8 | 88.8 | 42 | 342.29318794884 | 16.979806480016 | 0.4494680003477 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 35.03 | 22.08 | 28.555 | 51.503113631879 | 0.0161 | 2.0161 | 19.11 | 21.1261 | T | T | 3.03 | 85.03 | 42 | 343.52188968919 | 17.6924469197 | 0.45958979435779 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 35.09 | 24.56 | 29.825 | 23.249606934167 | 0.5806 | 1.7106 | 19.59 | 21.3006 | T | T | 3.09 | 78.09 | 42 | 324.5957371792 | 7.5467233019228 | 0.46223484632473 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 30.92 | 28.27 | 29.595 | 23.089633051716 | 0.2274 | 1.5074 | 19.44 | 20.9474 | T | T | -1.08 | 84.92 | 42 | 324.48466189212 | 7.4922317739992 | 0.28847811855488 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 30.94 | 28.28 | 29.61 | 22.859618661475 | 0.1059 | 1.3859 | 19.42 | 20.8059 | T | T | -1.06 | 81.94 | 42 | 324.3248759861 | 7.4139429874723 | 0.28923693863254 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 29.75 | 27.99 | 28.87 | 22.853802054225 | 0.3445 | 0.7745 | 19.93 | 20.7045 | T | T | -2.25 | 79.75 | 42 | 324.32083410746 | 7.4119641447529 | 0.24580004069144 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 28.05 | 27.06 | 27.555 | 22.561046566761 | 0.2583 | 0.6883 | 20.22 | 20.9083 | T | T | -3.95 | 78.05 | 42 | 324.1173252751 | 7.3124260686257 | 0.1903553185967 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 51 | 131 | 29.99 | 29.43 | 29.71 | 21.587898458765 | 0.1893 | 0.5193 | 20.13 | 20.6493 | T | T | -2.01 | 78.99 | 42 | 323.43975323664 | 6.9823845504004 | 0.25427003825238 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |