Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 19, 2021
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Thursday, November 18, 2021 |
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Saturday, November 20, 2021 ]
DAY 50
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/20/2021 07:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.53°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.38°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.338
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 77
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.78 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.46 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 20.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 21.72 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 18 in
SWE DAY: 43
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 329.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.93 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 130
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-20 07:00:14 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 32.52992 | 24.24002 | 28.38497 | 45.86605 | 0.78000000000009 | 1.4600000000001 | 20.26 | 21.72 | T | T | 0.52992 | 76.52992 | 43 | 340.83218414381 | 15.632625999549 | 0.33834940762236 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-20 03:00:09 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 32.52992 | 24.24002 | 28.38497 | 45.86605 | 0.78000000000009 | 1.4600000000001 | 20.26 | 21.72 | T | T | 0.52992 | 76.52992 | 43 | 340.83218414381 | 15.632625999549 | 0.33834940762236 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.56 | 25.27 | 29.915 | 14.095391439121 | 0.0453 | 0.7253 | 20.26 | 20.9853 | T | T | 2.56 | 78.56 | 43 | 319.22746083371 | 4.4996360185677 | 0.42474660941038 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.11 | 25.47 | 29.79 | 14.474837389051 | 0.1133 | 0.7933 | 20.26 | 21.0533 | T | T | 2.11 | 78.11 | 43 | 319.49591400884 | 4.6246514017441 | 0.40511521244922 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-19 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 32.45 | 25.99 | 29.22 | 15.328132485377 | 0.4035 | 1.0835 | 20.26 | 21.3435 | T | T | 0.45 | 76.45 | 43 | 320.09866511778 | 4.9065147473177 | 0.3350841875386 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 32.89 | 26.71 | 29.8 | 16.664793733764 | 0.7712 | 1.7312 | 20.26 | 21.9912 | T | T | 0.89 | 78.89 | 43 | 321.04023459174 | 5.3500692897107 | 0.3532089311858 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 32.86 | 26.38 | 29.62 | 16.912574479804 | 0.8639 | 1.8239 | 20.26 | 22.0839 | T | T | 0.86 | 78.86 | 43 | 321.21442509028 | 5.4325628883266 | 0.35196195194057 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.06 | 26.53 | 29.795 | 16.588191755049 | 0.7087 | 1.6687 | 20.26 | 21.9287 | T | T | 1.06 | 79.06 | 43 | 320.98636101597 | 5.3245833072884 | 0.36030458337849 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.1 | 26.52 | 29.81 | 17.350466090718 | 0.7271 | 1.6871 | 20.26 | 21.9471 | T | T | 1.1 | 79.1 | 43 | 321.52199607344 | 5.5785564902922 | 0.36198126931647 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 32.99 | 26.67 | 29.83 | 17.901979175108 | 0.6961 | 1.6461 | 20.26 | 21.9061 | T | T | 0.99 | 77.99 | 43 | 321.90888728013 | 5.762806196371 | 0.35737685206463 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.69 | 26.35 | 30.02 | 16.926308148226 | 0.7734 | 1.6734 | 20.26 | 21.9334 | T | T | 1.69 | 77.69 | 43 | 321.22407668811 | 5.4371377066522 | 0.38700447127015 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.54 | 26.3 | 29.92 | 14.750711946311 | 0.7284 | 1.5784 | 20.26 | 21.8384 | T | T | 1.54 | 87.54 | 43 | 319.69092936921 | 4.7156688109736 | 0.38059327756611 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.57 | 26.22 | 29.895 | 14.570099203455 | 0.7623 | 1.6223 | 20.26 | 21.8823 | T | T | 1.57 | 87.57 | 43 | 319.56326990668 | 4.6560685443208 | 0.38187295934194 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 35.34 | 25.9 | 30.62 | 14.571368295334 | 0.6222 | 1.3922 | 20.26 | 21.6522 | T | T | 3.34 | 86.34 | 43 | 319.56416712184 | 4.6564871731239 | 0.45919254734774 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 35.59 | 27.31 | 31.45 | 13.974923177046 | 0.6305 | 1.2105 | 20.26 | 21.4705 | T | T | 3.59 | 89.59 | 43 | 319.14217694733 | 4.4599874053942 | 0.47031089632783 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 37.61 | 26.46 | 32.035 | 14.498991243054 | 0.4941 | 0.9441 | 20.26 | 21.2041 | T | T | 5.61 | 92.61 | 43 | 319.51299379529 | 4.6326160990798 | 0.56024413170806 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-17 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 37.65 | 26.21 | 31.93 | 14.433632823269 | 0.4446 | 0.8746 | 20.26 | 21.1346 | T | T | 5.65 | 87.65 | 43 | 319.46677482455 | 4.6110661270514 | 0.56200909564161 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 37.25 | 25.35 | 31.3 | 12.498439595887 | 0.5111 | 0.9911 | 19.82 | 20.8111 | T | T | 5.25 | 91.25 | 43 | 318.09479757198 | 3.9756886132191 | 0.54430971007366 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.36 | 25.65 | 29.505 | 12.507416688342 | 0.85 | 1.32 | 19.82 | 21.14 | T | T | 1.36 | 88.36 | 43 | 318.10117756565 | 3.978623976866 | 0.37294304169906 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.78 | 25.51 | 30.145 | 12.126314238114 | 0.4359 | 1.0959 | 19.82 | 20.9159 | T | T | 2.78 | 88.78 | 43 | 317.83020111151 | 3.854108893041 | 0.43441576973923 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.58 | 25.19 | 29.885 | 12.665778415431 | 0.207 | 0.807 | 19.82 | 20.627 | T | T | 2.58 | 88.58 | 43 | 318.2137008724 | 4.030424224004 | 0.42562384651583 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 09:30:30 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 30.71 | 24.77 | 27.74 | 12.772681247463 | 0.2086 | 0.8086 | 19.82 | 20.6286 | T | T | -1.29 | 88.71 | 43 | 318.2896346766 | 4.0654120480957 | 0.26740834156148 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.99 | 24.77 | 29.38 | 79.994952201907 | 0.2003 | 0.7103 | 19.84 | 20.5503 | T | T | 1.99 | 90.99 | 43 | 362.17814877736 | 28.97242370002 | 0.39991809238082 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 30.85 | 24.72 | 27.785 | 80.599417175268 | 0.2824 | 0.9024 | 19.91 | 20.8124 | T | T | -1.15 | 82.85 | 43 | 362.53978451962 | 29.220495335129 | 0.2725896580685 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 35.18 | 25.87 | 30.525 | 9.0158664410189 | 0.5698 | 1.4598 | 20.56 | 22.0198 | T | T | 3.18 | 92.18 | 43 | 315.60873535788 | 2.8454862056055 | 0.45209296636846 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.15 | 25.13 | 29.64 | 9.3812045016215 | 0.5674 | 1.3874 | 20.56 | 21.9474 | T | T | 2.15 | 91.15 | 43 | 315.87056848153 | 2.9632463989686 | 0.40685135926325 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.17 | 25.14 | 29.655 | 8.5467174023673 | 0.5238 | 1.5238 | 20.61 | 22.1338 | T | T | 2.17 | 88.17 | 43 | 315.27214569551 | 2.6945419340975 | 0.40772012177978 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 14:54:21 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.17 | 25.14 | 29.655 | 8.5467174023673 | 0.5238 | 1.5238 | 20.61 | 22.1338 | T | T | 2.17 | 88.17 | 43 | 315.27214569551 | 2.6945419340975 | 0.40772012177978 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 37.31 | 27.8 | 32.555 | 61.177414235416 | 0.445 | 0.835 | 20.61 | 21.445 | T | T | 5.31 | 90.31 | 43 | 350.63786235971 | 21.451117752201 | 0.54697111031801 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.49 | 28.53 | 31.01 | 62.084274651312 | 0.4694 | 0.8294 | 20.74 | 21.5694 | T | T | 1.49 | 89.49 | 43 | 351.20675680744 | 21.80441674903 | 0.37846338046956 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.3 | 29.07 | 31.685 | 61.870651320767 | 0.4696 | 0.8696 | 20.76 | 21.6296 | T | T | 2.3 | 96.3 | 43 | 351.0728639275 | 21.721106752241 | 0.41337795827953 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.58 | 26.9 | 30.24 | 39.889462581887 | 0.7788 | 1.4588 | 19.26 | 20.7188 | T | T | 1.58 | 99.58 | 43 | 336.89998701983 | 13.438759426066 | 0.38229980761327 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.3 | 27.21 | 30.755 | 45.246559557978 | 0.5556 | 1.2256 | 19.27 | 20.4956 | T | T | 2.3 | 97.3 | 43 | 340.42736805774 | 15.40316718399 | 0.41337795827953 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 34.37 | 27.2 | 30.785 | 45.922722178465 | 0.5556 | 1.2256 | 19.39 | 20.6156 | T | T | 2.37 | 97.37 | 43 | 340.86918570718 | 15.653640914431 | 0.41643203137188 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 32.74 | 26.15 | 29.445 | 48.246762630377 | 0.8694 | 1.5294 | 19.22 | 20.7494 | T | T | 0.74 | 92.74 | 43 | 342.3819852638 | 16.51882237194 | 0.34699004735959 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 31.76 | 25.35 | 28.555 | 48.623794900371 | 0.8694 | 1.6394 | 19.34 | 20.9794 | T | T | -0.24 | 92.76 | 43 | 342.62656801559 | 16.659803970608 | 0.30743136333469 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 30.19 | 24.26 | 27.225 | 51.409167316141 | 1.1466 | 1.9966 | 19.79 | 21.7866 | T | T | -1.81 | 89.19 | 43 | 344.42621460075 | 17.706664894475 | 0.24860786609291 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 31.89 | 25.67 | 28.78 | 21.351170496569 | 0.2481 | 1.1281 | 20.27 | 21.3981 | T | T | -0.11 | 81.89 | 43 | 324.31626963177 | 6.9245319677194 | 0.31256452565828 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.3 | 28.6 | 30.95 | 21.195233543541 | 0.2234 | 1.2834 | 20.12 | 21.4034 | T | T | 1.3 | 93.3 | 43 | 324.20788716332 | 6.8716618850847 | 0.37040388478425 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 33.36 | 28.55 | 30.955 | 21.935339125407 | 0.2234 | 1.2834 | 20.1 | 21.3834 | T | T | 1.36 | 90.36 | 43 | 324.72190895881 | 7.1228851944611 | 0.37294304169906 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 36.73 | 25.41 | 31.07 | 19.769912144476 | 0.1809 | 0.7509 | 20.29 | 21.0409 | T | T | 4.73 | 88.73 | 43 | 323.21523936603 | 6.3899368860222 | 0.52117364154023 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 36.67 | 25.42 | 31.045 | 20.04931984861 | 0.1809 | 0.8509 | 20.48 | 21.3309 | T | T | 4.67 | 88.67 | 43 | 323.41011276481 | 6.4841527930968 | 0.51849800326429 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 38.23 | 25.4 | 31.815 | 19.850376577852 | 0.1384 | 0.7484 | 20.39 | 21.1384 | T | T | 6.23 | 88.23 | 43 | 323.27137360768 | 6.4170585029519 | 0.58744526785583 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 43.53 | 27.82 | 35.675 | 26.459270405585 | 0.0045 | 0.0445 | 18.76 | 18.8045 | T | T | 11.53 | 92.53 | 43 | 327.84297370879 | 8.6744858919319 | 0.79223784876964 | 89 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 43.57 | 27.78 | 35.675 | 27.606085570446 | 0.001 | 0.041 | 18.57 | 18.611 | T | T | 11.57 | 93.57 | 43 | 328.62848104962 | 9.0721459687415 | 0.79351806574959 | 89 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 41.78 | 27.04 | 34.41 | 28.965183002428 | 0.0101 | 0.0701 | 18.79 | 18.8601 | T | T | 9.78 | 90.78 | 43 | 329.55643265771 | 9.5456623815581 | 0.73181353658244 | 89 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 29.76 | 25.65 | 27.705 | 51.427772502367 | 0.546 | 2.856 | 18.59 | 21.446 | T | T | -2.24 | 81.76 | 43 | 344.43819277225 | 17.713689019018 | 0.23360919079791 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 29.38 | 26.4 | 27.89 | 48.801628261766 | 0.3462 | 2.6562 | 19.68 | 22.3362 | T | T | -2.62 | 80.38 | 43 | 342.74184815431 | 16.726360263377 | 0.22078259813137 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 50 | 130 | 25.77 | 25.03 | 25.4 | 43.304618506445 | 0.1751 | 2.4451 | 20.51 | 22.9551 | T | T | -6.23 | 83.77 | 43 | 339.15423921473 | 14.686944944038 | 0.12022341710984 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |