Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 21, 2021

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DAY 52 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/22/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.25°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.72°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.48°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.786 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 64 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.85 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 19.99 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 20.84 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 22 in SWE DAY: 41 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 322.49 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 7.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 132 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 27.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-11-22 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2022	52	132	45.24998	23.72	34.48499	21.71747625	0	0.85	19.99	20.84	T	T	13.24998	64.24998	41	322.48548161892	7.0035707880287	0.7862918180626	90	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2021-11-22 03:00:09	OBSERVATION	2022	52	132	45.24998	23.72	34.48499	21.71747625	0	0.85	19.99	20.84	T	T	13.24998	64.24998	41	322.48548161892	7.0035707880287	0.7862918180626	90	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2021-11-21 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	52	132	46.13	38.31	42.22	20.292668	0.004	0.854	19.99	20.844	T	T	14.13	65.13	41	321.48694714414	6.5238278847296	0.80980831889193	90	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2021-11-21 07:00:14	FORECAST	2022	52	132	45.56	30.9	38.23	20.316695507246	0.0004	0.8504	19.99	20.8404	T	T	13.56	64.56	41	321.50381608162	6.5318951357481	0.79476298230742	90	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2021-11-21 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	52	132	41.46	29.95	35.705	20.427614173913	0.0038	0.8538	19.99	20.8438	T	T	9.46	60.46	41	321.58167515369	6.5691463854401	0.6677841429112	90	3	4	1	3	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-11-20 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	45.48	29.85	37.665	45.289442666667	0	0.78	19.99	20.77	T	T	13.48	70.48	41	338.49137850124	15.330085879793	0.7925962951406	90	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2021-11-20 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	52	132	45.21	30.34	37.775	45.283429333333	0	0.78	19.99	20.77	T	T	13.21	70.21	41	338.48741629829	15.327870996166	0.7851847760934	90	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2021-11-20 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	45.55	28.96	37.255	45.281297333333	0	0.78	19.99	20.77	T	T	13.55	70.55	41	338.48601150271	15.327085730028	0.79449288267217	90	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2021-11-20 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	45.55	30.67	38.11	45.244003404545	0	0.78	19.99	20.77	T	T	13.55	70.55	41	338.46143693908	15.313350405179	0.79449288267217	90	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2021-11-20 07:00:17	FORECAST	2022	52	132	44.85	30.94	37.895	45.132839654378	0	0.79	19.99	20.78	T	T	12.85	69.85	41	338.3881725807	15.272419134023	0.77506771026361	90	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2021-11-20 03:00:10	FORECAST	2022	52	132	44.95	29.86	37.405	45.196879283865	0	0.79	19.99	20.78	T	T	12.95	66.95	41	338.43038151258	15.295997099216	0.77790472675522	90	4	4	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2021-11-19 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	44.49	29.14	36.815	13.31143865106	0	0.06	19.99	20.05	T	T	12.49	70.49	41	316.54178672213	4.2136265744485	0.76468642104787	90	4	4	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2021-11-19 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	44.19	28.5	36.345	13.356142710444	0	0.06	19.99	20.05	T	T	12.19	70.19	41	316.57373265825	4.2282039517613	0.7558374505343	90	4	4	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2021-11-19 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	44.01	28.86	36.435	13.37660935075	0	0.06	19.99	20.05	T	T	12.01	69.01	41	316.58835709906	4.2348787779097	0.75044329126386	90	4	4	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2021-11-19 11:00:05	FORECAST	2022	52	132	43.81	28.56	36.185	13.510024642443	0	0.06	19.99	20.05	T	T	11.81	68.81	41	316.68367038674	4.2784041907842	0.74437643151138	90	4	4	1	1	3	2	13.5	WET	H
2021-11-19 07:00:10	FORECAST	2022	52	132	44.13	28.63	36.38	13.905477988518	0	0.12	19.99	20.11	T	T	12.13	68.13	41	316.96599673528	4.4075636907109	0.75404640238868	90	4	4	1	2	3	2	27	WET	H
2021-11-19 03:00:14	FORECAST	2022	52	132	44.33	28.96	36.645	14.747371384345	0	0.42	19.99	20.41	T	T	12.33	66.33	41	317.56610673053	4.6832653150356	0.75998911204831	90	4	4	1	2	3	2	27	WET	H
2021-11-18 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	44.47	29.25	36.86	16.116746583193	0	0.8	20.27	21.07	T	T	12.47	69.47	41	318.53947395328	5.1338199784486	0.76410204229653	90	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2021-11-18 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	44.06	29.45	36.755	16.443419691578	0	0.89	20.27	21.16	T	T	12.06	69.06	41	318.77117712354	5.2416882510207	0.75194798188809	90	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2021-11-18 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	43.32	27.86	35.59	16.200165336724	0	0.74	20.27	21.01	T	T	11.32	68.32	41	318.59865960627	5.1613509616803	0.72919390944208	90	4	4	1	3	2	2	27	WET	L
2021-11-18 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	52	132	42.02	27.61	34.815	17.045805659313	0	0.77	20.27	21.04	T	T	10.02	67.02	41	319.19793450468	5.4409859584208	0.68685782297329	90	3	4	1	3	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-11-18 07:00:14	FORECAST	2022	52	132	39.18	27.56	33.37	17.728557347156	0	0.74	20.26	21	T	T	7.18	63.18	41	319.68083779707	5.6674800656722	0.58603977227317	90	3	4	1	3	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-11-18 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	52	132	41.56	26.81	34.185	16.727988203103	0	0.81	20.21	21.02	T	T	9.56	65.56	41	318.97285966135	5.3357742335251	0.67122403040167	90	3	4	1	3	2	2	24	WET	L
2021-11-17 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	41.32	26.32	33.82	14.342570612978	0	0.77	20.16	20.93	T	T	9.32	76.32	41	317.277720882	4.5505781156748	0.66294452620374	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-17 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	41	26.02	33.51	14.164417870122	0	0.82	20.17	20.99	T	T	9	75	41	317.1507083301	4.4922551605925	0.65178191031802	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-17 15:00:05	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.98	25.84	33.41	14.137205628667	0	0.72	20.08	20.8	T	T	8.98	73.98	41	317.13130252296	4.4833504350542	0.65107974002779	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-17 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.07	25.69	32.88	13.554645843713	0.0002	0.7302	19.89	20.6202	T	T	8.07	77.07	41	316.71554103516	4.2929669919314	0.61861818420991	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-17 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	52	132	36.69	25.04	30.865	14.218537329872	0	0.55	19.76	20.31	T	T	4.69	70.69	41	317.18929843765	4.5099678804715	0.49242232219635	90	2	4	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	L
2021-11-17 03:00:16	FORECAST	2022	52	132	36.73	25.04	30.885	14.097487489936	0	0.45	19.74	20.19	T	T	4.73	71.73	41	317.10297600454	4.4703552372454	0.49393689430773	90	2	4	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2021-11-16 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	39.67	25.87	32.77	12.04082492922	0.0085	0.5185	19.35	19.8685	T	T	7.67	76.67	41	315.6322759321	3.8004729765097	0.60406502080034	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-16 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.14	24.82	32.48	12.037064688342	0.0085	0.8685	19.34	20.2085	T	T	8.14	74.14	41	315.62957997685	3.7992536717357	0.6211484789554	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-16 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.18	27.24	33.71	11.723803571447	0.0088	0.4588	19.53	19.9888	T	T	8.18	75.18	41	315.40489275729	3.6977450081598	0.62259204252797	90	3	4	1	2	3	2	24	WET	H
2021-11-16 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.48	27.79	34.135	12.201057082097	0.0224	0.2724	19.47	19.7424	T	T	8.48	76.48	41	315.74713260517	3.8524487884242	0.63336297275023	90	3	4	1	2	3	2	24	WET	H
2021-11-16 09:30:30	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.49	27.49	33.99	12.33288791413	0.0224	0.2824	19.47	19.7524	T	T	8.49	75.49	41	315.84159576484	3.8952389991876	0.6337202557357	90	3	4	1	2	3	2	24	WET	H
2021-11-16 07:00:17	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.51	27.52	34.015	79.55521353524	0.0224	0.2724	19.4	19.6724	T	T	8.51	77.51	41	360.11439469767	28.648977567287	0.63443447393553	90	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-11-16 03:00:09	FORECAST	2022	52	132	39.78	26.32	33.05	80.147214508601	0.0233	0.3533	19.58	19.9333	T	T	7.78	64.78	41	360.47168005535	28.890801065672	0.60808257328267	90	3	4	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-11-15 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	41.87	27.51	34.69	8.5277477743523	0.0942	0.6742	20.5	21.1742	T	T	9.87	82.87	41	313.10226895597	2.6700571772339	0.68179485694559	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-15 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.95	29.06	35.005	8.9497751682882	0.1003	0.6803	20.43	21.1103	T	T	8.95	80.95	41	313.40739419567	2.8049257141303	0.65002551501176	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-15 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.89	29.09	34.99	8.1174747357007	0.1003	0.6303	20.66	21.2903	T	T	8.89	77.89	41	312.80532839341	2.5391893504261	0.64791360113931	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-15 14:54:21	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.89	29.09	34.99	8.1174747357007	0.1003	0.6303	20.66	21.2903	T	T	8.89	77.89	41	312.80532839341	2.5391893504261	0.64791360113931	90	3	4	1	3	3	2	36	WET	H
2021-11-15 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	52	132	36.83	25.56	31.195	60.852694235416	0.1165	0.5765	20.05	20.6265	T	T	4.83	75.83	41	348.54593140687	21.209958990901	0.497723659231	90	2	4	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2021-11-15 07:00:13	FORECAST	2022	52	132	36.91	25.29	31.1	61.755235984645	0.1165	0.5965	20.15	20.7465	T	T	4.91	74.91	41	349.11690992664	21.55979715875	0.50075323522879	90	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-11-15 03:00:10	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.55	26.08	33.315	61.409701987434	0.2359	0.7059	20.21	20.9159	T	T	8.55	86.55	41	348.8984680227	21.425750945146	0.6358615113149	90	3	4	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-11-14 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	52	132	40.47	30.18	35.325	39.53877591522	1.5935	2.6335	18.99	21.6235	T	T	8.47	86.47	41	334.67446790443	13.232618791019	0.63300557421977	90	3	4	1	5	1	2	20	WET	L
2021-11-14 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	52	132	36.75	27.77	32.26	51.230916245314	1.4883	2.2283	18.99	21.2183	T	T	4.75	79.75	41	342.3768110181	17.540277729606	0.49469421450562	90	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2021-11-14 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	52	132	35.6	27.88	31.74	52.27538993736	1.2137	1.9537	19.11	21.0637	T	T	3.6	78.6	41	343.05380621081	17.933271489166	0.45126556363634	90	2	4	1	5	1	2	17.5	WET	L
2021-11-14 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	52	132	30.08	28.7	29.39	50.146066079636	0.3352	1.3252	18.93	20.2552	T	T	-1.92	70.08	41	341.67174093736	17.133493698589	0.25898607781164	90	2	4	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2021-11-14 07:00:13	FORECAST	2022	52	132	28.5	25.29	26.895	50.318538668198	0.0809	1.0709	19.16	20.2309	T	T	-3.5	68.5	41	341.78396492581	17.198069655289	0.21287305322451	90	1	4	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-11-14 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	52	132	27.92	27.8	27.86	51.699487835197	0.0232	1.1932	19.69	20.8832	T	T	-4.08	63.92	41	342.68074661799	17.716419091133	0.19722649958721	90	1	4	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L