Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 17, 2021
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021 |
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Thursday, November 18, 2021 ]
DAY 48
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/18/2021 07:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.73°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.191
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 87
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.99 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 19.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 20.93 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 15 in
SWE DAY: 45
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.75 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 128
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-18 07:00:10 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 28.90004 | 18.55004 | 23.72504 | 14.775232916667 | 0 | 0.99 | 19.94 | 20.93 | T | T | -3.09996 | 86.90004 | 45 | 321.81449998573 | 4.7548841932497 | 0.19095816601537 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 03:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 28.90004 | 18.55004 | 23.72504 | 14.775232916667 | 0 | 0.99 | 19.94 | 20.93 | T | T | -3.09996 | 86.90004 | 45 | 321.81449998573 | 4.7548841932497 | 0.19095816601537 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 27 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 35.87 | 27.04 | 31.455 | 13.939210666667 | 0.0087 | 0.9987 | 19.94 | 20.9387 | T | T | 3.87 | 93.87 | 45 | 321.22761048023 | 4.4776593344339 | 0.48730422042933 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.52 | 22.3 | 29.41 | 14.102627 | 0.0046 | 0.9946 | 19.94 | 20.9346 | T | T | 4.52 | 94.52 | 45 | 321.34242712975 | 4.5317723890856 | 0.51863826645454 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 32.28 | 21.79 | 27.035 | 14.178231 | 0.0044 | 0.9944 | 19.94 | 20.9344 | T | T | 0.28 | 90.28 | 45 | 321.39553053195 | 4.5568200742496 | 0.32069557657436 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.45 | 22.96 | 29.705 | 11.92456 | 0 | 0.55 | 19.94 | 20.49 | T | T | 4.45 | 95.45 | 45 | 319.80819037679 | 3.8135719546395 | 0.51526592702253 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.36 | 23 | 29.68 | 11.924669333333 | 0 | 0.55 | 19.94 | 20.49 | T | T | 4.36 | 95.36 | 45 | 319.80826760473 | 3.8136078412526 | 0.5109284908178 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.3 | 20.97 | 28.635 | 11.926364 | 0 | 0.55 | 19.94 | 20.49 | T | T | 4.3 | 95.3 | 45 | 319.80946463504 | 3.8141640858826 | 0.50803611674942 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.35 | 22.62 | 29.485 | 12.015956142537 | 0.0002 | 0.5502 | 19.94 | 20.4902 | T | T | 4.35 | 95.35 | 45 | 319.87274084136 | 3.8435768251428 | 0.51044646427243 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 09:30:29 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.27 | 22.52 | 29.395 | 12.039764112613 | 0.0002 | 0.5502 | 19.94 | 20.4902 | T | T | 4.27 | 99.27 | 45 | 319.88955326526 | 3.851394763403 | 0.50658976173983 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.06 | 22.89 | 29.475 | 79.778070077808 | 0.0004 | 0.5704 | 19.94 | 20.5104 | T | T | 4.06 | 99.06 | 45 | 363.83393747049 | 29.025969360205 | 0.49646391577705 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.29 | 22.94 | 29.615 | 80.054037772823 | 0.0004 | 0.6404 | 19.94 | 20.5804 | T | T | 4.29 | 94.29 | 45 | 363.99795044694 | 29.139505674309 | 0.50755400921283 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 35.7 | 22.03 | 28.865 | 8.6505365444456 | 0.0006 | 1.2906 | 19.94 | 21.2306 | T | T | 3.7 | 97.7 | 45 | 317.48593084909 | 2.7464236471574 | 0.47911423308174 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 35.91 | 21.46 | 28.685 | 8.6588752319215 | 0.0002 | 1.2902 | 19.94 | 21.2302 | T | T | 3.91 | 97.91 | 45 | 317.49187003082 | 2.7491224897463 | 0.48923218295854 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.02 | 22.04 | 29.03 | 8.8256267357007 | 0.0025 | 1.3425 | 19.94 | 21.2825 | T | T | 4.02 | 94.02 | 45 | 317.61061141511 | 2.8031127036474 | 0.49453524191643 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 14:54:21 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.02 | 22.04 | 29.03 | 8.8256267357007 | 0.0025 | 1.3425 | 19.94 | 21.2825 | T | T | 4.02 | 94.02 | 45 | 317.61061141511 | 2.8031127036474 | 0.49453524191643 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.06 | 21.92 | 28.99 | 61.413902235416 | 0.0027 | 1.3427 | 19.94 | 21.2827 | T | T | 4.06 | 95.06 | 45 | 352.65728825825 | 21.658060223699 | 0.49646391577705 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.22 | 22.11 | 29.165 | 62.166055984645 | 0.0003 | 1.4703 | 19.94 | 21.4103 | T | T | 4.22 | 99.22 | 45 | 353.12536995951 | 21.952411518501 | 0.50417898691972 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.97 | 23.1 | 30.035 | 62.030879320767 | 0.0003 | 1.4903 | 19.94 | 21.4303 | T | T | 4.97 | 102.97 | 45 | 353.04131247237 | 21.899463049219 | 0.54027537593487 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 37.29 | 22.29 | 29.79 | 40.067436307472 | 0.0003 | 1.6803 | 18.25 | 19.9303 | T | T | 5.29 | 106.29 | 45 | 338.9931346487 | 13.582585831207 | 0.55559326670394 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 37.24 | 23.48 | 30.36 | 40.890330926089 | 0.0009 | 1.6909 | 18.25 | 19.9409 | T | T | 5.24 | 103.24 | 45 | 339.53372428275 | 13.883646346489 | 0.553204720938 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.48 | 23.15 | 29.815 | 41.47828184254 | 0.0008 | 1.8108 | 18.25 | 20.0608 | T | T | 4.48 | 103.48 | 45 | 339.91927930707 | 14.099267670812 | 0.51671136315452 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 37.36 | 23.69 | 30.525 | 39.720402374889 | 0.0009 | 1.6409 | 18.25 | 19.8909 | T | T | 5.36 | 103.36 | 45 | 338.76481638822 | 13.455874817396 | 0.55893382291206 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 37.06 | 22.28 | 29.67 | 39.051873494905 | 0.0003 | 1.5403 | 18.47 | 20.0103 | T | T | 5.06 | 105.06 | 45 | 338.32441461967 | 13.212202239965 | 0.54459057948809 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.71 | 20.34 | 28.525 | 39.016742707011 | 0.0003 | 1.5503 | 18.91 | 20.4603 | T | T | 4.71 | 104.71 | 45 | 338.30125108534 | 13.199412871057 | 0.52778434550261 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.73 | 19.92 | 28.325 | 15.171035765642 | 0.0006 | 1.5706 | 19.37 | 20.9406 | T | T | 4.73 | 95.73 | 45 | 322.09192009746 | 4.8864680396229 | 0.52874632295486 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.75 | 20.07 | 28.41 | 14.780903929653 | 0.0008 | 1.4708 | 19.32 | 20.7908 | T | T | 4.75 | 104.75 | 45 | 321.8184767956 | 4.7567679883032 | 0.52970813271466 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.76 | 22.79 | 29.775 | 15.371897859715 | 0.0016 | 1.6416 | 19.13 | 20.7716 | T | T | 4.76 | 101.76 | 45 | 322.2325986548 | 4.9533265935922 | 0.53018897296289 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 35.68 | 23.67 | 29.675 | 16.882885993148 | 0.3247 | 2.0647 | 19.22 | 21.2847 | T | T | 3.68 | 96.68 | 45 | 323.28855765833 | 5.4580438618349 | 0.47815121767025 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 34.67 | 23.47 | 29.07 | 16.933835753861 | 0.4204 | 2.3304 | 19.24 | 21.5704 | T | T | 2.67 | 101.67 | 45 | 323.32409348257 | 5.4751170942997 | 0.42980429743327 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 29.11 | 23.49 | 26.3 | 17.516335284518 | 0.4211 | 2.2911 | 19.19 | 21.4811 | T | T | -2.89 | 95.11 | 45 | 323.73004155368 | 5.6705639495254 | 0.19794569523603 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 35.05 | 20.58 | 27.815 | 26.517440041607 | 0.0031 | 2.2331 | 17.2 | 19.4331 | T | T | 3.05 | 93.05 | 45 | 329.92722371971 | 8.7488253730813 | 0.44791059997599 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 35.06 | 23.15 | 29.105 | 27.640333697512 | 0.0031 | 2.1531 | 17.09 | 19.2431 | T | T | 3.06 | 94.06 | 45 | 330.69043333155 | 9.1403939278587 | 0.44838872126302 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 34.81 | 21.68 | 28.245 | 28.670769630386 | 0.0038 | 2.1638 | 17.3 | 19.4638 | T | T | 2.81 | 93.81 | 45 | 331.38888843833 | 9.5011744784852 | 0.43645996113983 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.01 | 22.59 | 29.3 | 29.640443523728 | 0.0523 | 2.2523 | 17.06 | 19.3123 | T | T | 4.01 | 96.01 | 45 | 332.04449006539 | 9.8419459551483 | 0.49405309164853 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.01 | 22.27 | 29.14 | 28.582998789052 | 0.0523 | 2.4523 | 17.95 | 20.4023 | T | T | 4.01 | 95.01 | 45 | 331.32946637747 | 9.4703897362445 | 0.49405309164853 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 36.8 | 22.33 | 29.565 | 27.739052687454 | 0.051 | 2.581 | 18.65 | 21.231 | T | T | 4.8 | 98.8 | 45 | 330.75742672468 | 9.1748976866826 | 0.5321118867827 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 38.01 | 23.42 | 30.715 | 37.316262734898 | 0.0167 | 2.8267 | 15.72 | 18.5467 | T | T | 6.01 | 96.01 | 45 | 337.17756222083 | 12.582206500145 | 0.58972277623364 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 35.65 | 24.7 | 30.175 | 36.282300284588 | 0.0254 | 2.8654 | 15.92 | 18.7854 | T | T | 3.65 | 103.65 | 45 | 336.49193618224 | 12.208701471906 | 0.47670693546219 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 35.66 | 24.71 | 30.185 | 35.155793632997 | 0.0254 | 2.2954 | 15.36 | 17.6554 | T | T | 3.66 | 104.66 | 45 | 335.74289113834 | 11.803307794605 | 0.47718832980876 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 33.66 | 21.51 | 27.585 | 36.092178967829 | 0.0199 | 1.8699 | 15.27 | 17.1399 | T | T | 1.66 | 93.66 | 45 | 336.36566961404 | 12.140169946344 | 0.38248869185161 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 33.72 | 21.52 | 27.62 | 35.971911741859 | 0.0199 | 1.8699 | 15.84 | 17.7099 | T | T | 1.72 | 96.72 | 45 | 336.2857642286 | 12.096841830875 | 0.38525844757082 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 34.86 | 21.25 | 28.055 | 36.05363496743 | 0.0004 | 1.9204 | 15.05 | 16.9704 | T | T | 2.86 | 92.86 | 45 | 336.34006368912 | 12.12628188117 | 0.43884145164792 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 33.56 | 23.4 | 28.48 | 36.154419193367 | 0.8528 | 3.0028 | 14.65 | 17.6528 | T | T | 1.56 | 105.56 | 45 | 336.40701235352 | 12.162600144217 | 0.37788582298771 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 33.37 | 23.66 | 28.515 | 34.108882263598 | 0.6057 | 2.7257 | 14.79 | 17.5157 | T | T | 1.37 | 100.37 | 45 | 335.04484709115 | 11.428005242457 | 0.36918843689584 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 32.49 | 23.19 | 27.84 | 32.15878054756 | 0.2868 | 2.5068 | 14.14 | 16.6468 | T | T | 0.49 | 103.49 | 45 | 333.73962773212 | 10.732659448262 | 0.32983419955607 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 29.72 | 25.86 | 27.79 | 26.251569506464 | 0.0485 | 1.3185 | 13.91 | 15.2285 | T | T | -2.28 | 109.72 | 45 | 329.74619759591 | 8.6563552256812 | 0.21910332899445 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 26.85 | 25.44 | 26.145 | 29.687209822869 | 0.0375 | 1.4875 | 14.28 | 15.7675 | T | T | -5.15 | 93.85 | 45 | 332.07606820873 | 9.8584119140658 | 0.13085748365174 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 48 | 128 | 26.92 | 25.73 | 26.325 | 30.501132277561 | 0.024 | 1.474 | 14.8 | 16.274 | T | T | -5.08 | 92.92 | 45 | 332.62505510597 | 10.145440804618 | 0.13266603762339 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |