Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 16, 2021
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Monday, November 15, 2021 |
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021 ]
DAY 47
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/17/2021 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.31°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.80°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.078
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 98
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.47 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.17 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 17.76 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 20.93 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 14 in
SWE DAY: 46
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 322.45 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.57 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 127
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-17 07:00:05 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 25.30994 | 20.28992 | 22.79993 | 14.179761666667 | 0.46999999999991 | 3.1699999999999 | 17.76 | 20.93 | T | T | -6.69006 | 98.30994 | 46 | 322.44532462046 | 4.5721978536491 | 0.077755944533829 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 03:00:13 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 25.30994 | 20.28992 | 22.79993 | 14.179761666667 | 0.46999999999991 | 3.1699999999999 | 17.76 | 20.93 | T | T | -6.69006 | 98.30994 | 46 | 322.44532462046 | 4.5721978536491 | 0.077755944533829 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 25.68 | 20.94 | 23.31 | 12.087460142537 | 0.0268 | 2.7268 | 17.76 | 20.4868 | T | T | -6.32 | 98.68 | 46 | 320.97753887882 | 3.8798032078474 | 0.084635246715658 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 09:30:28 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 29.64 | 21.12 | 25.38 | 12.109464112613 | 0.0342 | 2.7342 | 17.76 | 20.4942 | T | T | -2.36 | 102.64 | 46 | 320.99301566593 | 3.8870534036062 | 0.18802514757624 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 30.07 | 21.2 | 25.635 | 79.843287411141 | 0.0481 | 2.7481 | 17.76 | 20.5081 | T | T | -1.93 | 103.07 | 46 | 364.76032394847 | 29.123663381198 | 0.20267609903732 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 03:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 24.87 | 21.16 | 23.015 | 80.123027106156 | 0.1233 | 2.8233 | 17.76 | 20.5833 | T | T | -7.13 | 97.87 | 46 | 364.92591990188 | 29.238969372037 | 0.070137977745316 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 30.37 | 21.14 | 25.755 | 8.7064605444456 | 0.1967 | 3.4667 | 17.76 | 21.2267 | T | T | -1.63 | 102.37 | 46 | 318.589160358 | 2.773783954545 | 0.21328951267487 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 30.2 | 21.19 | 25.695 | 8.7184618985882 | 0.2033 | 3.4733 | 17.76 | 21.2333 | T | T | -1.8 | 102.2 | 46 | 318.59767458332 | 2.7776816868334 | 0.20723604146498 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 25.61 | 20.95 | 23.28 | 8.8878374023673 | 0.2477 | 3.5177 | 17.76 | 21.2777 | T | T | -6.39 | 97.61 | 46 | 318.71780844891 | 2.8327120587328 | 0.083300231314437 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 14:54:20 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 25.61 | 20.95 | 23.28 | 8.8878374023673 | 0.2477 | 3.5177 | 17.76 | 21.2777 | T | T | -6.39 | 97.61 | 46 | 318.71780844891 | 2.8327120587328 | 0.083300231314437 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 27.34 | 21.04 | 24.19 | 61.477916902082 | 0.2522 | 3.5222 | 17.76 | 21.2822 | T | T | -4.66 | 99.34 | 46 | 353.62716347267 | 21.740261370292 | 0.12113776203236 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 28.78 | 21.26 | 25.02 | 62.232803984645 | 0.3277 | 3.6477 | 17.76 | 21.4077 | T | T | -3.22 | 102.78 | 46 | 354.09508668689 | 22.036330121711 | 0.16074318472651 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 31.21 | 21.38 | 26.295 | 62.116596654101 | 0.3351 | 3.6651 | 17.76 | 21.4251 | T | T | -0.79 | 106.21 | 46 | 354.02311299319 | 21.990710916027 | 0.24467151716415 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 31.25 | 22.56 | 26.905 | 40.157964307472 | 0.3113 | 2.1713 | 17.76 | 19.9313 | T | T | -0.75 | 109.25 | 46 | 340.03441451412 | 13.65508988137 | 0.24622537934121 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 27.99 | 23.36 | 25.675 | 40.973006893672 | 0.2874 | 2.1774 | 17.76 | 19.9374 | T | T | -4.01 | 105.99 | 46 | 340.56769776155 | 13.954082628146 | 0.1380771003851 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 27.7 | 23.28 | 25.49 | 41.540955693616 | 0.3456 | 2.2956 | 17.76 | 20.0556 | T | T | -4.3 | 106.7 | 46 | 340.93865512104 | 14.162917566624 | 0.13033030165991 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 27.66 | 23.58 | 25.62 | 39.806927214648 | 0.2747 | 2.1347 | 17.76 | 19.8947 | T | T | -4.34 | 105.66 | 46 | 339.80439020149 | 13.526568627969 | 0.12928578045969 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 31.09 | 21.89 | 26.49 | 39.138988798104 | 0.2132 | 2.2532 | 17.76 | 20.0132 | T | T | -0.91 | 108.09 | 46 | 339.36614293821 | 13.282447666914 | 0.2400417338034 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 31.12 | 22.05 | 26.585 | 39.094144441299 | 0.2264 | 2.6964 | 17.76 | 20.4564 | T | T | -0.88 | 108.12 | 46 | 339.33669304829 | 13.266077692263 | 0.24119468965294 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 25.93 | 22.79 | 24.36 | 15.240226400086 | 0.1769 | 3.2069 | 17.73 | 20.9369 | T | T | -6.07 | 98.93 | 46 | 323.1862855745 | 4.9254321615583 | 0.089533797452417 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.53 | 22.37 | 27.45 | 14.848257398192 | 0.1765 | 3.0565 | 17.73 | 20.7865 | T | T | 0.53 | 107.53 | 46 | 322.91264405664 | 4.7946900560836 | 0.29860720631919 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.16 | 22.6 | 27.38 | 15.435580763022 | 0.1944 | 3.0444 | 17.73 | 20.7744 | T | T | 0.16 | 105.16 | 46 | 323.32256472843 | 4.990671560373 | 0.28295609484651 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.26 | 23.28 | 27.77 | 15.470288844499 | 0.1364 | 3.2264 | 17.73 | 20.9564 | T | T | 0.26 | 101.26 | 46 | 323.34677000369 | 5.0022679288927 | 0.28714714083758 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.84 | 23.27 | 28.055 | 14.953896060418 | 0.1715 | 3.4315 | 17.72 | 21.1515 | T | T | 0.84 | 106.84 | 46 | 322.98641937131 | 4.8299053442052 | 0.31201530344436 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.94 | 23.27 | 28.105 | 14.899445042545 | 0.1397 | 3.3497 | 17.71 | 21.0597 | T | T | 0.94 | 105.94 | 46 | 322.94839465815 | 4.8117518577873 | 0.31639532015848 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.46 | 21.32 | 26.89 | 26.537429352263 | 0.1794 | 3.8094 | 15.62 | 19.4294 | T | T | 0.46 | 98.46 | 46 | 330.95714174803 | 8.7827517677655 | 0.29561617804203 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.45 | 22.22 | 27.335 | 27.662150049947 | 0.1336 | 3.6636 | 15.58 | 19.2436 | T | T | 0.45 | 99.45 | 46 | 331.71865333132 | 9.1760511628174 | 0.29519001386849 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.51 | 22.24 | 27.375 | 28.680267660144 | 0.2666 | 3.8166 | 15.64 | 19.4566 | T | T | 0.51 | 98.51 | 46 | 332.40611400315 | 9.5334963214786 | 0.29775122447755 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 30.13 | 21.08 | 25.605 | 29.358566732734 | 0.419 | 3.659 | 15.6 | 19.259 | T | T | -1.87 | 100.13 | 46 | 332.86313420659 | 9.7723845384713 | 0.20477320744943 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 29.98 | 21.73 | 25.855 | 28.312267964674 | 0.2981 | 3.9781 | 16.37 | 20.3481 | T | T | -2.02 | 98.98 | 46 | 332.15783574624 | 9.4041416522137 | 0.19955456279952 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 31.64 | 21.89 | 26.765 | 27.476832089316 | 0.2395 | 4.1295 | 17.05 | 21.1795 | T | T | -0.36 | 101.64 | 46 | 331.59333025019 | 9.1111342572216 | 0.26164842027078 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 30.88 | 23.65 | 27.265 | 37.294986847909 | 0.5286 | 4.4986 | 14.03 | 18.5286 | T | T | -1.12 | 97.88 | 46 | 338.15239087342 | 12.611388970213 | 0.23205566073548 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 30.33 | 24.32 | 27.325 | 36.170197852404 | 0.5117 | 4.5617 | 14.2 | 18.7617 | T | T | -1.67 | 108.33 | 46 | 337.40924022058 | 12.204158976008 | 0.21185598376788 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 31.97 | 24.32 | 28.145 | 35.040112784519 | 0.5612 | 3.6912 | 13.94 | 17.6312 | T | T | -0.030000000000001 | 108.97 | 46 | 336.66044920022 | 11.796620110063 | 0.27507489444718 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 28.18 | 23.27 | 25.725 | 35.955332556479 | 0.701 | 3.151 | 13.97 | 17.121 | T | T | -3.82 | 100.18 | 46 | 337.26703654229 | 12.126548459216 | 0.14331910686729 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 28.49 | 23.34 | 25.915 | 35.831937142032 | 0.701 | 3.461 | 14.23 | 17.691 | T | T | -3.51 | 103.49 | 46 | 337.18533502147 | 12.082003729704 | 0.1521561922293 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 28.06 | 22.14 | 25.1 | 36.082368151766 | 0.806 | 3.176 | 13.79 | 16.966 | T | T | -3.94 | 98.06 | 46 | 337.3511215214 | 12.172427363146 | 0.1399929903878 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.33 | 25.13 | 28.73 | 28.647695154218 | 0.5786 | 3.4586 | 13.34 | 16.7986 | T | T | 0.33 | 112.33 | 46 | 332.3841476795 | 9.5220397368169 | 0.29009823122946 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 32.48 | 24.9 | 28.69 | 28.726487186685 | 0.5786 | 3.2286 | 13.68 | 16.9086 | T | T | 0.48 | 107.48 | 46 | 332.43728051802 | 9.5497552791774 | 0.29646935289077 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 34.58 | 23.18 | 28.88 | 29.714670012261 | 0.9003 | 3.1103 | 13.25 | 16.3603 | T | T | 2.58 | 110.58 | 46 | 333.10275228534 | 9.8980383643349 | 0.39151262982909 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 38.23 | 25.69 | 31.96 | 25.873713618657 | 0.7947 | 2.0647 | 13.12 | 15.1847 | T | T | 6.23 | 120.23 | 46 | 330.50673979786 | 8.5514367345658 | 0.56951073202849 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 33 | 23.14 | 28.07 | 29.409217773385 | 0.3404 | 2.8204 | 12.91 | 15.7304 | T | T | 1 | 107 | 46 | 332.89722997165 | 9.790247132393 | 0.31903578889626 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-10 03:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 33.07 | 22.94 | 28.005 | 30.318668680244 | 0.3404 | 2.6504 | 13.6 | 16.2504 | T | T | 1.07 | 106.07 | 46 | 333.50868127606 | 10.111539209594 | 0.32212796495134 | 89 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 38.17 | 24.27 | 31.22 | 28.837256927412 | 1.0235 | 3.4235 | 13.24 | 16.6635 | T | T | 6.17 | 113.17 | 46 | 332.51195931289 | 9.5887328021427 | 0.56659942364092 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 37.24 | 32.21 | 34.725 | 25.002584053978 | 0.8463 | 2.3363 | 12.92 | 15.2563 | T | T | 5.24 | 110.24 | 46 | 329.91443194601 | 8.2487133153506 | 0.5211086682056 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 15:00:08 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 37.27 | 32.7 | 34.985 | 24.790095221369 | 0.6129 | 2.2229 | 12.67 | 14.8929 | T | T | 5.27 | 111.27 | 46 | 329.76975529806 | 8.1750236349666 | 0.52258365467216 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 39.45 | 38.07 | 38.76 | 29.105121221961 | 0.203 | 0.693 | 13.02 | 13.713 | T | T | 7.45 | 111.45 | 46 | 332.69246137131 | 9.6830544178446 | 0.62767802742929 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 38.88 | 37.8 | 38.34 | 28.189011510967 | 0.0375 | 0.5275 | 12.44 | 12.9675 | T | T | 6.88 | 118.88 | 46 | 332.07462645231 | 9.3608554675642 | 0.60077597428157 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-09 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 47 | 127 | 29.77 | 29.15 | 29.46 | 30.026090069897 | 0.0413 | 1.8513 | 13 | 14.8513 | T | T | -2.23 | 101.77 | 46 | 333.31212592875 | 10.008059914525 | 0.19238414529009 | 89 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |