Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 18, 2021
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021 |
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Friday, November 19, 2021 ]
DAY 49
OF WATER YEAR 2022,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/19/2021 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.08°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.462
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 81
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.68 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 20.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 21.61 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 14 in
SWE DAY: 44
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 320.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.53 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 129
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 42.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-11-19 07:00:08 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 35.27006 | 28.88996 | 32.08001 | 14.130406521739 | 0.68000000000006 | 1.1500000000001 | 20.46 | 21.61 | T | T | 3.27006 | 81.27006 | 44 | 320.30909657663 | 4.5260977472388 | 0.4617159416902 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-19 03:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 35.27006 | 28.88996 | 32.08001 | 14.130406521739 | 0.68000000000006 | 1.1500000000001 | 20.46 | 21.61 | T | T | 3.27006 | 81.27006 | 44 | 320.30909657663 | 4.5260977472388 | 0.4617159416902 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-18 11:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 36.92 | 32.54 | 34.73 | 15.527263844032 | 0.9575 | 1.4275 | 20.46 | 21.8875 | T | T | 4.92 | 82.92 | 44 | 321.29224883508 | 4.9887895187045 | 0.53514177640818 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-18 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 36.35 | 31.14 | 33.745 | 16.111731772438 | 0.9482 | 1.4182 | 20.46 | 21.8782 | T | T | 4.35 | 82.35 | 44 | 321.70258181274 | 5.1831857086676 | 0.50978404644374 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-18 03:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 35.21 | 28.4 | 31.805 | 15.033737354408 | 0.8998 | 1.3698 | 20.46 | 21.8298 | T | T | 3.21 | 81.21 | 44 | 320.94528775153 | 4.8250071611916 | 0.45905255200655 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.89 | 28.33 | 33.11 | 13.8762590778 | 0.8438 | 1.3238 | 20.46 | 21.7838 | T | T | 5.89 | 90.89 | 44 | 320.12984421891 | 4.4422046569174 | 0.57791384803905 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-17 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.87 | 29.54 | 33.705 | 13.722289159206 | 0.8532 | 1.3332 | 20.46 | 21.7932 | T | T | 5.87 | 90.87 | 44 | 320.02119162356 | 4.3914233285322 | 0.57703939902611 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-17 15:00:01 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 34.58 | 29.25 | 31.915 | 13.927145968293 | 0.7559 | 1.2359 | 20.46 | 21.6959 | T | T | 2.58 | 87.58 | 44 | 320.16574444189 | 4.4589950568894 | 0.43124803170659 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 42 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-17 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.94 | 29.34 | 33.64 | 13.685612 | 0.5695 | 1.0495 | 20.46 | 21.5095 | T | T | 5.94 | 90.94 | 44 | 319.99530323224 | 4.3793315618588 | 0.58009828195933 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-17 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.75 | 29.68 | 33.715 | 13.902328333333 | 0.4526 | 0.9226 | 20.46 | 21.3826 | T | T | 5.75 | 91.75 | 44 | 320.14823641335 | 4.450805897956 | 0.57178487899153 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-17 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 38.12 | 29.69 | 33.905 | 14.096330072726 | 0.4347 | 0.9047 | 20.46 | 21.3647 | T | T | 6.12 | 87.12 | 44 | 320.28506888364 | 4.5148440483495 | 0.58794137008505 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-16 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.32 | 29.12 | 33.22 | 11.861924650983 | 0.4846 | 0.5146 | 20.46 | 20.9746 | T | T | 5.32 | 91.32 | 44 | 318.70501647774 | 3.7804548913491 | 0.55285792734825 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-16 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.53 | 29.7 | 33.615 | 11.714257333333 | 0.4683 | 0.4983 | 20.46 | 20.9583 | T | T | 5.53 | 91.53 | 44 | 318.60027778177 | 3.7321656404071 | 0.56211912060234 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-16 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 36.99 | 29.58 | 33.285 | 11.774718666667 | 0.6561 | 0.6861 | 20.46 | 21.1461 | T | T | 4.99 | 90.99 | 44 | 318.64316704575 | 3.7519336470194 | 0.53824814574835 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-16 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 36.88 | 28.88 | 32.88 | 12.545157916647 | 0.598 | 0.628 | 20.46 | 21.088 | T | T | 4.88 | 90.88 | 44 | 319.18911476402 | 4.0042778499895 | 0.53336573389269 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-16 09:30:29 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.15 | 28.88 | 33.015 | 12.564604157037 | 0.5981 | 0.6281 | 20.46 | 21.0881 | T | T | 5.15 | 95.15 | 44 | 319.20288091638 | 4.0106578445 | 0.54533936138157 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 36 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-16 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 36.13 | 28.27 | 32.2 | 80.032070868573 | 0.5075 | 0.5575 | 20.46 | 21.0175 | T | T | 4.13 | 94.13 | 44 | 363.09433090791 | 29.059191223199 | 0.49998062370834 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-16 03:00:09 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 36.27 | 28.75 | 32.51 | 80.241430879098 | 0.623 | 0.743 | 20.46 | 21.203 | T | T | 4.27 | 89.27 | 44 | 363.21916136422 | 29.145225230571 | 0.50621953776592 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 36.95 | 28.58 | 32.765 | 8.4461925444456 | 0.8921 | 1.0921 | 21.03 | 22.1221 | T | T | 4.95 | 93.95 | 44 | 316.2721938188 | 2.6712958454478 | 0.53647335096892 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-15 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.09 | 28.62 | 32.855 | 8.6592669571084 | 0.8207 | 1.0207 | 21.03 | 22.0507 | T | T | 5.09 | 94.09 | 44 | 316.42457208649 | 2.7400048414857 | 0.54268172530582 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-15 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.74 | 28.18 | 32.96 | 8.603516069034 | 1.0016 | 1.2516 | 21.03 | 22.2816 | T | T | 5.74 | 90.74 | 44 | 316.3847103013 | 2.7220209390739 | 0.57134641386584 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-15 14:54:21 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.74 | 28.18 | 32.96 | 8.603516069034 | 1.0016 | 1.2516 | 21.03 | 22.2816 | T | T | 5.74 | 90.74 | 44 | 316.3847103013 | 2.7220209390739 | 0.57134641386584 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 48 | WET | H |
| 2021-11-15 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 35.79 | 28.29 | 32.04 | 61.291667568749 | 0.3914 | 0.6414 | 21.03 | 21.6714 | T | T | 3.79 | 89.79 | 44 | 351.64714931068 | 21.553040177048 | 0.48483201957603 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 35.42 | 27.79 | 31.605 | 62.119534651312 | 0.3617 | 0.6917 | 21.08 | 21.7717 | T | T | 3.42 | 93.42 | 44 | 352.16442142258 | 21.876289979519 | 0.46837234234726 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-15 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 36.61 | 28.56 | 32.585 | 61.930456654101 | 0.4022 | 0.7422 | 21.09 | 21.8322 | T | T | 4.61 | 98.61 | 44 | 352.04637657361 | 21.802392864625 | 0.52136183176792 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 37.64 | 27.69 | 32.665 | 39.851448307472 | 0.6776 | 0.9876 | 19.62 | 20.6076 | T | T | 5.64 | 102.64 | 44 | 337.86479822008 | 13.464401541182 | 0.56695700642038 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 38.25 | 26.95 | 32.6 | 42.54355057532 | 0.6663 | 0.9563 | 19.65 | 20.6063 | T | T | 6.25 | 100.25 | 44 | 339.63683781077 | 14.449356986644 | 0.59358425025973 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 38.26 | 26.83 | 32.545 | 43.167003798329 | 0.6676 | 1.0176 | 19.71 | 20.7276 | T | T | 6.26 | 100.26 | 44 | 340.04549226082 | 14.678745056028 | 0.59401753013417 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 34.64 | 28.14 | 31.39 | 42.956275166004 | 0.6622 | 0.9322 | 19.62 | 20.5522 | T | T | 2.64 | 96.64 | 44 | 339.90743850494 | 14.60115745939 | 0.43388366566616 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 33.64 | 27.8 | 30.72 | 43.088677714722 | 0.769 | 0.979 | 19.8 | 20.779 | T | T | 1.64 | 97.64 | 44 | 339.99418745381 | 14.649899968076 | 0.3904277005688 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-14 03:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 31.85 | 27.89 | 29.87 | 43.628174810456 | 0.8508 | 1.0808 | 20.23 | 21.3108 | T | T | -0.15 | 95.85 | 44 | 340.34735958824 | 14.848734100393 | 0.31626530936125 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 32.12 | 27.03 | 29.575 | 19.706275801146 | 0.8826 | 1.0626 | 20.76 | 21.8226 | T | T | 0.12 | 87.12 | 44 | 324.21282653181 | 6.3890273779048 | 0.3270746842184 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 33.39 | 27.44 | 30.415 | 19.855259417197 | 1.0557 | 1.2357 | 20.61 | 21.8457 | T | T | 1.39 | 97.39 | 44 | 324.31637519633 | 6.4393857627682 | 0.37975209723848 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 33.46 | 26.94 | 30.2 | 20.5517154409 | 1.0557 | 1.2457 | 20.58 | 21.8257 | T | T | 1.46 | 94.46 | 44 | 324.79991634574 | 6.6751954559657 | 0.38273243250721 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 33.28 | 25.87 | 29.575 | 18.454904602861 | 0.2459 | 0.7059 | 20.82 | 21.5259 | T | T | 1.28 | 89.28 | 44 | 323.34153258352 | 5.9672371379718 | 0.37508316874775 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 27.98 | 25.64 | 26.81 | 18.626536423433 | 0.2459 | 0.8359 | 20.98 | 21.8159 | T | T | -4.02 | 88.98 | 44 | 323.46119884051 | 6.0249618017701 | 0.1812578747932 | 91 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-13 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 32.62 | 24.58 | 28.6 | 18.883076946728 | 0.1927 | 0.7527 | 20.92 | 21.6727 | T | T | 0.62 | 86.62 | 44 | 323.63996846099 | 6.1113184274855 | 0.3474740068786 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 33.51 | 21.3 | 27.405 | 26.796197330586 | 0.0422 | 0.2222 | 19.25 | 19.4722 | T | T | 1.51 | 85.51 | 44 | 329.09738129881 | 8.818558370262 | 0.38486551312305 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 33.51 | 21.36 | 27.435 | 27.927185294356 | 0.0422 | 0.1722 | 19.11 | 19.2822 | T | T | 1.51 | 86.51 | 44 | 329.86846503578 | 9.2122977458191 | 0.38486551312305 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 33.38 | 21.15 | 27.265 | 29.053347536619 | 0.058 | 0.328 | 19.19 | 19.518 | T | T | 1.38 | 86.38 | 44 | 330.63406090441 | 9.6060262788995 | 0.37932691272078 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 34.41 | 26.85 | 30.63 | 45.985156159257 | 2.2647 | 2.7347 | 18.84 | 21.5747 | T | T | 2.41 | 89.41 | 44 | 341.88465211234 | 15.721619115839 | 0.42379738579598 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 07:00:06 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 34.31 | 26.89 | 30.6 | 45.356161393255 | 2.2647 | 2.6147 | 20.05 | 22.6647 | T | T | 2.31 | 88.31 | 44 | 341.47530312473 | 15.488008960336 | 0.41942716497698 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-12 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 36.84 | 25.87 | 31.355 | 41.277378951942 | 2.2215 | 2.5115 | 20.94 | 23.4515 | T | T | 4.84 | 94.84 | 44 | 338.80490681339 | 13.984978529314 | 0.53158902676474 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 35.22 | 26.57 | 30.895 | 39.541407778413 | 0.3154 | 0.8654 | 18 | 18.8654 | T | T | 3.22 | 90.22 | 44 | 337.65993908018 | 13.351549341603 | 0.45949588259007 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 35.95 | 26.66 | 31.305 | 37.417233612929 | 0.2524 | 0.7924 | 18.25 | 19.0424 | T | T | 3.95 | 98.95 | 44 | 336.25204457271 | 12.581621304602 | 0.49195938327204 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 30.29 | 27.12 | 28.705 | 37.212841979154 | 0.2256 | 0.8156 | 17.07 | 17.8856 | T | T | -1.71 | 94.29 | 44 | 336.11617352788 | 12.507838052131 | 0.25705523188735 | 91 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 28.03 | 23.61 | 25.82 | 36.092178967829 | 0 | 0.72 | 16.42 | 17.14 | T | T | -3.97 | 81.03 | 44 | 335.36994848662 | 12.10423220121 | 0.1827344437096 | 91 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 24.33 | 23.63 | 23.98 | 35.971911741859 | 0 | 0.72 | 16.99 | 17.71 | T | T | -7.67 | 80.33 | 44 | 335.28973888306 | 12.061012895053 | 0.093621241603827 | 91 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2021-11-11 03:00:07 | FORECAST | 2022 | 49 | 129 | 24.64 | 24.49 | 24.565 | 36.05363496743 | 0 | 0.81 | 16.16 | 16.97 | T | T | -7.36 | 76.64 | 44 | 335.34424507407 | 12.090379000329 | 0.099555523253289 | 91 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |