Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 30, 2020

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DAY 213 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/01/2020 12:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.19°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.19°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.19°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.038 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 203 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.32 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.07 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.39 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 164 in SWE DAY: 120 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 75.87 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -72 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-72	27.19	27.19	27.19	166.00340363707	0.0008	0.3208	3.07	3.3908	F	F	-4.81	203.19	121	457.03654079403	75.869621358322	0.037815214245231	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-72	42.96	29.88	36.42	165.69485118131	0.0445	0.3645	3.07	3.4345	F	F	10.96	218.96	121	456.92609955569	75.710302066734	0.44497652397633	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-72	42.79	31.32	37.055	165.65376279158	0.0623	0.3823	3.07	3.4523	F	F	10.79	218.79	121	456.91138611589	75.689090372415	0.43801530056759	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	213	-72	40.1	31.54	35.82	165.95568752593	0.1359	0.4559	3.07	3.5259	T	F	8.1	216.1	121	457.01946725996	75.84497990186	0.33173613724659	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	43.35	32.08	37.715	166.39756933195	0.1582	0.1782	3.07	3.2482	F	F	11.35	202.35	120	456.6417372148	75.984075128061	0.46100717842352	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	43.57	31.4	37.485	167.61209748099	0.19	0.43	3.07	3.5	F	F	11.57	220.57	120	457.07683358158	76.611606786577	0.47007985120668	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	44.16	31.37	37.765	167.53140952308	0.1708	0.4108	3.07	3.4808	F	F	12.16	221.16	120	457.04796928018	76.569890513171	0.494474867919	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	43.62	30.65	37.135	166.32339414675	0.1655	0.4055	3.07	3.4755	F	F	11.62	220.62	120	456.61512094874	75.945776734925	0.47214416133892	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	43.05	30.74	36.895	165.91710003597	0.1869	0.4169	3.07	3.4869	F	F	11.05	218.05	120	456.46924152452	75.736052809367	0.4486688987341	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	43.74	30.87	37.305	165.56375607934	0.1717	0.4217	3.07	3.4917	F	F	11.74	214.74	120	456.34225133898	75.553737189383	0.47710145430842	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	44.35	31.26	37.805	165.19204403189	0.1956	0.4556	3.07	3.5256	T	F	12.35	214.35	120	456.20853667536	75.362020678202	0.50233969386287	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-28 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	44.87	30.73	37.8	166.25646863186	0.1397	0.4397	3.07	3.5097	F	F	12.87	221.87	120	456.59110177655	75.911224190098	0.52385078833908	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	44.27	30.99	37.63	166.16460513967	0.1573	0.4473	3.07	3.5173	T	F	12.27	222.27	120	456.55812586219	75.8638007072	0.4990281225546	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.33	31.91	38.62	164.97190760249	0.2132	0.4132	3.07	3.4832	F	F	13.33	223.33	120	456.12928823154	75.248518792921	0.54282405794888	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-28 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.33	31.89	38.61	164.86788547357	0.2261	0.4461	3.07	3.5161	T	F	13.33	226.33	120	456.09182516279	75.194894796372	0.54282405794888	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.53	32.49	39.01	165.16456892912	0.2732	0.4932	3.07	3.5632	T	F	13.53	224.53	120	456.19864814203	75.347853066424	0.55104551093269	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.67	31.41	38.54	165.85112493087	0.1695	0.4195	2.38	2.7995	F	F	13.67	218.67	120	456.44553902933	75.70200611769	0.55678772847951	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.8	31.02	38.41	166.08302545839	0.1246	0.4446	2.45	2.8946	F	F	13.8	227.8	120	456.52883503997	75.821690132434	0.56210915692652	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-27 16:01:19	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	40.24	31.7	35.97	166.36273308462	0.1465	0.4565	2.45	2.9065	F	F	8.24	221.24	120	456.62923755603	75.966087966167	0.33702463519788	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	39.16	30.8	34.98	166.28763961288	0.1794	0.5294	2.45	2.9794	F	F	7.16	219.16	120	456.6022893656	75.927316940444	0.29713278130806	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	39.22	30.84	35.03	166.13074993888	0.1338	0.5638	2.74	3.3038	F	F	7.22	219.22	120	456.54597103946	75.846324550359	0.29929168834951	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-27 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	44.87	30.33	37.6	165.83749798509	0.1101	0.5901	2.95	3.5401	T	F	12.87	222.87	120	456.44064286023	75.694974190646	0.52385078833908	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-27 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	43.1	30.94	37.02	167.21201187601	0.2239	0.7339	3.22	3.9539	T	F	11.1	206.1	120	456.93365388585	76.404795560111	0.45072216174421	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	43.17	31	37.085	168.03661846447	0.2183	0.8183	3.28	4.0983	T	F	11.17	224.17	120	457.22859901213	76.831147643246	0.45359893454255	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-04-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	42.73	29.87	36.3	168.26479764359	0.2604	0.8404	3.13	3.9704	T	F	10.73	220.73	120	457.31010503382	76.949192283883	0.43556285635895	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.3	30.52	37.91	167.19185047325	0.1215	0.7715	3.22	3.9915	T	F	13.3	226.3	120	456.92643481963	76.394376167637	0.54158917007116	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	41.61	30.72	36.165	167.54840450924	0.0865	0.5465	3.18	3.7265	T	F	9.61	211.61	120	457.05404934587	76.578676742389	0.39033659612065	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	43.73	30.52	37.125	167.28917755906	0.1861	0.7561	3.16	3.9161	T	F	11.73	219.73	120	456.96128069986	76.444676824613	0.47668820055404	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	42.72	30.02	36.37	167.87019079406	0.1275	0.7775	2.51	3.2875	F	F	10.72	210.72	120	457.16912094311	76.745067557873	0.43515435382684	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	42.78	30.08	36.43	167.95835653652	0.1275	0.8475	2.75	3.5975	T	F	10.78	217.78	120	457.20063282637	76.790666896975	0.43760639188867	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.92	30.01	37.965	167.70534605268	0.0717	0.7617	2.73	3.4917	T	F	13.92	219.92	120	457.11018379209	76.659821557056	0.56701131855113	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-25 11:57:34	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.29	30.5	37.895	167.12216780633	0.1292	0.5592	2.74	3.2992	F	F	13.29	227.29	120	456.90148113985	76.358366002012	0.5411774509697	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.35	30.56	37.955	166.97833558113	0.1292	0.4792	3.17	3.6492	T	F	13.35	227.35	120	456.84996019723	76.284045964038	0.54364708763077	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	46.53	31.27	38.9	167.45715229698	0.0617	0.4017	3.14	3.5417	T	F	14.53	230.53	120	457.02140020065	76.531502216377	0.59175616560159	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-24 23:57:48	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.03	29.73	37.38	166.69735306643	0.3957	0.7857	2.99	3.7757	T	F	13.03	232.03	120	456.74925747495	76.13889223613	0.53045853452418	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-24 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	41.31	27.67	34.49	169.80772538066	0.3957	0.7857	2.89	3.6757	T	F	9.31	217.31	120	457.86000371669	77.748165773912	0.37844379389908	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	41.58	28.58	35.08	169.7296678923	0.3844	0.8444	2.88	3.7244	T	F	9.58	227.58	120	457.8322357913	77.707713331247	0.38914248294164	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.12	31.87	38.495	166.81822066825	0.2062	0.4762	3.16	3.6362	T	F	13.12	239.12	120	456.79258462525	76.201326181636	0.53417182594742	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	45.12	31.87	38.495	167.36792209994	0.2062	0.3962	3.14	3.5362	T	F	13.12	230.12	120	456.989467194	76.485377545817	0.53417182594742	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	44.96	31.42	38.19	167.48292360449	0.2869	0.5169	3.08	3.5969	T	F	12.96	242.96	120	457.03062168815	76.544824697109	0.52756856972083	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	52.29	34.1	43.195	167.80041757311	0.1408	0.2608	2.57	2.8308	F	F	20.29	240.29	120	457.14417784625	76.708983933714	0.79667342538924	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	52.29	37.12	44.705	168.08589920101	0.1254	0.2454	2.72	2.9654	F	F	20.29	247.29	120	457.24620618137	76.856639722246	0.79667342538924	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-23 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	46.6	35.2	40.9	168.08629193557	0.0501	0.2101	2.74	2.9501	F	F	14.6	238.6	120	457.2463464899	76.856842882575	0.5945744270433	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-23 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	40.95	35.99	38.47	168.24277896166	0.2481	0.3681	2.86	3.2281	F	F	8.95	229.95	120	457.30224197933	76.937800016	0.36432382082896	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-23 08:01:13	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	40.95	36.61	38.78	168.46159913128	0.1803	0.3003	2.96	3.2603	F	F	8.95	221.95	120	457.38036495497	77.051027691561	0.36432382082896	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	213	-73	41.56	39.98	40.77	168.39638722538	0.1429	0.2729	3.04	3.3129	F	F	9.56	231.56	120	457.35708760204	77.017281224104	0.38834698783234	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L