Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 1, 2020

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DAY 214 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/02/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.38°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.85°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.61°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.505 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 204 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.03 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.35 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.07 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.42 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 164 in SWE DAY: 121 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 74.68 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -72 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-02 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	214	-72	45.37994	25.84994	35.61494	163.70538125	0.03000000000003	0.35000000000003	3.07	3.42	F	F	13.37994	204.37994	121	456.21191973602	74.684346251179	0.50489555349772	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-02 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	214	-71	36.21	36.21	36.21	164.97698533333	0.0014	0.3214	3.07	3.3914	F	F	4.21	195.21	122	457.20447627873	75.428216177371	0.19660180187644	87	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-05-01 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	214	-71	50.12	38.41	44.265	165.18470133333	0.0163	0.3363	3.07	3.4063	F	F	18.12	209.12	122	457.27868746712	75.535443415355	0.6772169976247	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-71	46.67	28.31	37.49	165.179836	0.0227	0.3427	3.07	3.4127	F	F	14.67	205.67	122	457.2769496657	75.532931552361	0.55334061449173	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-05-01 03:57:15	FORECAST	2020	214	-71	50.95	27.96	39.455	165.12074133333	0.0267	0.3467	3.07	3.4167	F	F	18.95	209.95	122	457.25584049789	75.502423362008	0.70482226831922	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-05-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	52.41	26.69	39.55	165.0957729704	0.054	0.374	3.07	3.444	F	F	20.41	211.41	121	456.71142210837	75.401125257395	0.75054997942299	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.72	26.96	39.34	165.049292	0.0217	0.3817	3.07	3.4517	F	F	19.72	226.72	121	456.69475216579	75.377145505079	0.72941594096855	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.28	26.61	38.945	165.06620667946	0.0329	0.3929	3.07	3.4629	F	F	19.28	226.28	121	456.7008186769	75.385871726399	0.71548786308697	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.44	28.91	40.175	164.77526499149	0.0446	0.4046	3.07	3.4746	F	F	19.44	226.44	121	456.59643506281	75.235798581642	0.72059201906064	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.42	29.88	40.65	164.73715918532	0.0407	0.4207	3.07	3.4907	F	F	19.42	226.42	121	456.58275780583	75.216146453929	0.71995643620199	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-30 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.33	30.3	40.815	165.06719828855	0.0705	0.5305	3.07	3.6005	T	F	19.33	223.33	121	456.701174313	75.386383298938	0.71708768249389	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	52.14	30.87	41.505	165.49485716909	0.0827	0.2627	3.07	3.3327	F	F	20.14	210.14	121	456.85446876619	75.607065055523	0.74238578524643	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.5	30.73	41.115	166.66293217142	0.0381	0.4681	3.07	3.5381	T	F	19.5	228.5	121	457.27231806737	76.21034532993	0.72249455759784	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.51	30.54	41.025	166.58861957237	0.0281	0.4381	3.07	3.5081	F	F	19.51	228.51	121	457.24577152437	76.171941883549	0.72281103144965	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.73	29.83	40.78	165.41299572083	0.0447	0.4547	3.07	3.5247	T	F	19.73	228.73	121	456.82513839069	75.56481466179	0.72972849105385	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	47.59	30.12	38.855	165.10630838281	0.047	0.467	3.07	3.537	T	F	15.59	221.59	121	456.71520025676	75.40656069671	0.58745052549976	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.87	30.61	41.24	164.63087585496	0.079	0.499	3.07	3.569	T	F	19.87	222.87	121	456.54460270136	75.161337809582	0.73408517310896	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.58	30.93	41.255	164.30076386191	0.0392	0.4992	3.07	3.5692	T	F	19.58	221.58	121	456.42602869277	74.99114516068	0.72502139724785	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-28 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.53	30.53	41.03	165.35601495029	0.0304	0.4604	3.08	3.5404	T	F	19.53	229.53	121	456.8047189851	75.535407941863	0.72344344958234	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.73	30.65	41.19	165.26814502299	0.0099	0.4499	3.08	3.5299	T	F	19.73	229.73	121	456.77322446911	75.490063504178	0.72972849105385	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.67	31.32	41.495	164.03507316561	0.0013	0.4013	3.08	3.4813	F	F	19.67	230.67	121	456.33052214231	74.854210587316	0.72785049082751	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-28 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	46.53	31.43	38.98	164.09311550653	0.0228	0.4528	3.09	3.5428	T	F	14.53	228.53	121	456.35139184459	74.884121653519	0.54810864571678	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	52.64	31.91	42.275	164.17391770213	0.0266	0.4966	3.09	3.5866	T	F	20.64	233.64	121	456.38043995695	74.925764790354	0.75739483600006	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	54.73	28.8	41.765	164.79738265701	0.0052	0.4152	2.39	2.8052	F	F	22.73	229.73	121	456.6043731145	75.247205599013	0.8147121214205	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	54.77	27.45	41.11	165.02475566591	0.0035	0.4335	2.46	2.8935	F	F	22.77	238.77	121	456.68595165736	75.364487588309	0.81572026460048	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-27 16:01:19	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	55.31	29.53	42.42	165.27344508462	0.0043	0.4543	2.46	2.9143	F	F	23.31	232.31	121	456.77512432706	75.492798426489	0.82899521632702	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	56.33	30.56	43.445	165.09491630834	0.0043	0.5343	2.45	2.9843	F	F	24.33	231.33	121	456.71111489276	75.400683290308	0.85235885703763	87	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	56.37	30.58	43.475	164.93439163135	0.0043	0.5543	2.75	3.3043	F	F	24.37	231.37	121	456.65353583267	75.317873118865	0.85322941038859	87	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-27 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.49	30.48	40.985	164.76934624662	0.0027	0.5827	2.96	3.5427	T	F	19.49	230.49	121	456.59431074388	75.232746081194	0.72217790746656	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-27 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	54.83	29.51	42.17	166.18476930509	0.002	0.712	3.24	3.952	T	F	22.83	216.83	121	457.10141724986	75.963293574697	0.81722608000254	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	54.88	29.57	42.225	167.00470433467	0.002	0.792	3.31	4.102	T	F	22.88	234.88	121	457.39434416695	76.387007211953	0.81847505434924	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-04-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	55.65	29.12	42.385	167.16245503685	0.006	0.806	3.17	3.976	T	F	23.65	232.65	121	457.45063164868	76.468570644552	0.83703218394863	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	55.96	30.2	43.08	166.04783078834	0.0056	0.7156	3.28	3.9956	T	F	23.96	237.96	121	457.0524356292	75.892565492758	0.84414293543937	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	55.49	29.9	42.695	166.4361792721	0.0013	0.4813	3.25	3.7313	T	F	23.49	223.49	121	457.19129989241	76.093173150538	0.83328108575286	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	54.07	29.93	42	166.26046022573	0.001	0.581	3.34	3.921	T	F	22.07	230.07	121	457.12848387079	76.002392110646	0.79758794261993	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	57.23	28.87	43.05	166.63117079406	0.0007	0.4407	2.85	3.2907	F	F	25.23	224.23	121	457.2609726264	76.193931227169	0.87111687253922	87	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	57.28	28.92	43.1	166.71458053652	0.0007	0.4407	3.16	3.6007	T	F	25.28	231.28	121	457.29076535957	76.237038130146	0.8721083313521	87	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	57.98	29.02	43.5	166.41428338601	0.0253	0.3353	3.18	3.5153	F	F	25.98	233.98	121	457.18347408296	76.081860215443	0.88543582058508	87	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-25 11:57:34	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	52.33	29.8	41.065	166.23876722102	0.0007	0.3807	2.92	3.3007	F	F	20.33	235.33	121	457.1207271139	75.991186146592	0.74814536060399	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	52.38	29.86	41.12	166.09021879694	0.0007	0.3807	3.27	3.6507	T	F	20.38	235.38	121	457.06759924222	75.914457563134	0.74964967751082	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	51.19	30.8	40.995	166.58145263017	0.0068	0.3568	3.19	3.5468	F	F	19.19	238.19	121	457.24321102682	76.168238298133	0.71259735943709	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-24 23:57:48	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	54.25	29.61	41.93	165.67738299173	0.0672	0.6572	3.19	3.8472	T	F	22.25	242.25	121	456.91984451752	75.701284076652	0.80234935406554	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	50.17	27.9	39.035	169.07037094551	0.0241	0.6141	3.09	3.7041	T	F	18.17	223.17	121	458.12961768453	77.456144403048	0.67890997182245	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	49.82	28.77	39.295	169.22917216609	0.003	0.633	3.09	3.723	T	F	17.82	233.82	121	458.18598341264	77.538434671028	0.66698296334707	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	45.3	31.63	38.465	166.5686656327	0.0011	0.3711	3.27	3.6411	T	F	13.3	240.3	121	457.2386425645	76.161630567674	0.5018838149058	87	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	34.38	31.63	33.005	167.3090120996	0.0009	0.3709	3.17	3.5409	F	F	2.38	220.38	121	457.50290488969	76.544359049792	0.15226804543351	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	214	-72	33.67	31.31	32.49	167.47395012629	0.0007	0.4807	3.12	3.6007	T	F	1.67	232.67	121	457.561710893	76.629667149793	0.13700616954028	87	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L