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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 2, 2020

[ Friday, May 1, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 3, 2020 ]

DAY 215 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/03/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.38°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.396
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 199

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.86 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.89 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.28 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 122
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.62 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.59 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -71

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-05-03 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020215-7142.2000627.3799434.79163.342849166670.859999999999960.889999999999963.394.28TF10.20006199.20006122456.61927688838 74.585493671370.3960434592248791 2123127.5WETL
2020-05-03 00:00:03FORECAST2020215-7026.8926.8926.89164.083708199220.01950.04953.393.4395FF-5.11183.89123457.4197270049175.0551250104410.034235812143155911111121.5DRYL
2020-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2020215-7044.6528.436.525164.068054947870.66270.69273.394.0827TF12.65201.65123457.4141415023975.0470485019490.49418223909402912123127.5WETL
2020-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2020215-7046.4928.8937.69163.903758814970.71820.74823.394.1382TF14.49203.49123457.355502808474.9622860250090.56845365267736913123129WETL
2020-05-02 04:00:04FORECAST2020215-7045.2728.9137.09163.511750821720.74120.77123.394.1612TF13.27202.27123457.215492917674.7601057497720.51931515065267913123129WETL
2020-05-02 00:00:01FORECAST2020215-7142.0229.0635.54164.870633048120.80740.80743.394.1974TF10.02190.02122457.1664643870175.3733243918570.3890087745395912113126WETL
2020-05-01 19:57:21FORECAST2020215-7145.2829.1137.195165.873020852560.83230.85233.394.2423TF13.28207.28122457.5243253576775.8909419606080.51972015994125913123129WETL
2020-05-01 16:00:01FORECAST2020215-7144.3828.8736.625165.959079402070.82570.84573.394.2357TF12.38206.38122457.5550065427175.9354076616370.48323861086577912123127.5WETL
2020-05-01 12:00:01FORECAST2020215-7143.9528.8336.39164.837525424440.67290.69293.394.0829TF11.95205.95122457.1546291329275.3562378025980.46583925808305912123127.5WETL
2020-05-01 08:00:02FORECAST2020215-7140.129.5634.83164.895787161180.73780.75783.394.1478TF8.1199.1122457.1754557690375.3863066498060.31665928076375912123127.5WETL
2020-05-01 03:57:15FORECAST2020215-7144.9229.4237.17164.612767680810.79880.82883.394.2188TF12.92207.92122457.0742568190175.2402584506270.50513024778565913123129WETL
2020-05-01 00:00:03FORECAST2020215-7144.3729.9837.175164.821157257210.94820.99823.394.3882TF12.37208.37122457.1487775021275.3477905466190.482833482856079121241210WETL
2020-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2020215-7139.5330.4634.995164.642474552521.02711.08713.394.4771TF7.53219.53122457.0848824885375.255586133460.296324643188419121241210WETL
2020-04-30 16:00:02FORECAST2020215-7143.9730.9837.475164.592571506791.01831.08833.394.4783TF11.97222.97122457.0670325150375.2298382326240.46664734234999121241210WETL
2020-04-30 12:00:02FORECAST2020215-7139.8630.8735.365164.443255371721.05291.13293.394.5229TF7.86218.86122457.0136096536575.1528057206280.308024896053879121241210WETL
2020-04-30 08:00:02FORECAST2020215-7144.4631.4337.945164.529714445661.13411.23413.394.6241TF12.46223.46122457.0445457600275.1974086028410.486480222861649121241210WETL
2020-04-30 04:00:04FORECAST2020215-7143.9531.3537.65164.644755770541.07851.28853.394.6785TF11.95219.95122457.0856984103375.2567631809750.465839258083059121241210WETL
2020-04-30 00:00:03FORECAST2020215-7148.8532.6840.765164.853479401430.97861.21863.094.3086TF16.85211.85122457.1603324563275.3644714497370.659946458161499131241212WETL
2020-04-29 20:00:02FORECAST2020215-7147.2232.7139.965165.792735380340.89761.12763.314.4376TF15.22229.22122457.4956963152775.8494629168430.597405714714799131241212WETL
2020-04-29 16:00:03FORECAST2020215-7149.3433.0741.205165.687835844591.01291.21293.314.5229TF17.34231.34122457.4582813314475.7952726229940.678003616971269131241212WETL
2020-04-29 12:00:02FORECAST2020215-7149.5833.7141.645164.927042572680.84151.05153.314.3615TF17.58231.58122457.1866272705675.4024383395120.686700311749429131241212WETL
2020-04-29 08:00:03FORECAST2020215-7147.7233.7740.745164.717264270980.91051.15053.34.4505TF15.72222.72122457.111630016375.2941771627350.61694204656739131241212WETL
2020-04-29 04:00:03FORECAST2020215-7146.1934.740.445164.039345701210.84511.09513.324.4151TF14.19222.19122456.8689958306874.9444911472340.556438627558019131241212WETL
2020-04-29 00:00:04FORECAST2020215-7150.2935.242.745163.335679723030.49560.73563.334.0656TF18.29225.29122456.6167040883374.5817997351590.711813290437259141231210.5WETL
2020-04-28 20:00:01FORECAST2020215-7150.7333.4742.1164.441425206430.51060.68063.374.0506TF18.73233.73122457.0129547248675.1518616127580.726884356462629141231210.5WETL
2020-04-28 16:00:02FORECAST2020215-7149.7935.0442.415164.276088751890.41490.58493.363.9449TF17.79232.79122456.9537761375975.0665790842930.69422595463081913123129DRYL
2020-04-28 12:00:03FORECAST2020215-7146.1734.1340.15163.162451266330.61170.82173.274.0917TF14.17230.17122456.5545257203274.4925555532610.55563565175301913123129WETL
2020-04-28 08:00:01FORECAST2020215-7144.636.140.35163.19838617320.56560.81563.294.1056TF12.6226.6122456.5674263921574.5110671664480.49215506513922912123127.5WETL
2020-04-28 04:00:04FORECAST2020215-7142.334.7438.52163.414543035460.6410.9413.294.231TF10.3229.3122456.6450021085274.6224343489930.39996278900898912123127.5WETL
2020-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2020215-7138.6930.5434.615164.682099409580.55770.73772.633.3677FF6.69221.69122457.0990544137575.2760319189880.26750085488343912123127.5DRYL
2020-04-27 20:00:02FORECAST2020215-7138.7330.5834.655164.913948042630.55770.67772.773.4477TF6.73230.73122457.1819470509975.3956798619950.26884075181553912123127.5DRYL
2020-04-27 16:01:19FORECAST2020215-7146.8834.9440.91164.519453305540.44820.59822.763.3582FF14.88231.88122457.0408745547975.192114820040.58397739548892913123129DRYL
2020-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2020215-7147.6634.741.18164.004534975010.45560.63562.83.4356TF15.66231.66122456.8565254245374.9265420025470.61461225454385913123129DRYL
2020-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2020215-7147.7134.7541.23163.839472964680.45560.58563.173.7556TF15.71231.71122456.7973794912974.8414419074990.61655403890582913123129DRYL
2020-04-27 04:00:03FORECAST2020215-7147.8833.1340.505163.842393194980.40140.51143.433.9414TF15.88230.88122456.7984260998674.8429473398990.62313397504883913123129DRYL
2020-04-27 00:00:02FORECAST2020215-7144.2635.339.78165.298349305090.26180.48183.734.2118TF12.26214.26122457.319274179375.5941211272390.47837833640148912122125WETL
2020-04-26 20:00:02FORECAST2020215-7144.3135.3639.835166.111997668010.26180.48183.884.3618TF12.31232.31122457.6095076926676.0144294747010.48040310161955912122125WETL
2020-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2020215-7148.8235.4842.15166.167139036850.28910.55913.714.2691TF16.82234.82122457.6291552735776.0429274716610.65882837516296913123129WETL
2020-04-26 12:00:03FORECAST2020215-7150.7436.5543.645164.846312121680.20460.33463.874.2046TF18.74241.74122457.1577702827575.360772488880.72722229433561914122127WETL
2020-04-26 08:00:02FORECAST2020215-7154.8135.5945.2165.083780605430.30850.39853.644.0385TF22.81230.81122457.2426361693975.4833430328370.8457274421696914122127WETL
2020-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2020215-7152.6136.3744.49165.009632225730.22420.41423.734.1442TF20.61235.61122457.2161427049475.4450675554070.78656089322546914122127WETL
2020-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2020215-7159.5737.5148.54164.821649460730.2010.3313.163.491FF27.57236.57122457.1489534687575.3480445599660.93356895965982915122128DRYL
2020-04-25 20:00:03FORECAST2020215-7159.6237.5648.59165.137665869860.01640.14643.473.6164FF27.62243.62122457.2618864244675.5111606153820.93422361845399915122128DRYL
2020-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2020215-7151.9737.5644.765165.594502052680.21950.31953.423.7395TF19.97238.97122457.4249831709475.7470623146470.76714456938618914122127DRYL
2020-04-25 11:57:34FORECAST2020215-7144.5335.1739.85165.889064554350.15960.28963.173.4596FF12.53232.53122457.5300456905975.8992312851220.48931737367696912122125DRYL
2020-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2020215-7136.6235.235.91165.922993463610.10520.23523.523.7552TF4.62224.62122457.5421421719375.9167618649180.20303203507862911122124DRYL
2020-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2020215-7136.635.3935.995166.493001963510.03850.10853.483.5885FF4.6227.6122457.7452082715776.2113738595450.20245802271999911122124DRYL