Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 29, 2020

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DAY 212 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/30/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.32°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.66°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.49°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.925 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 25 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 216 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.32 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.38 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.39 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 166 in SWE DAY: 119 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.04 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 75.80 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -74 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 16.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-30 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	212	-74	57.32006	37.65992	47.48999	166.21193791667	0.31999999999999	1.01	2.38	3.39	T	F	25.32006	216.32006	119	456.03706149133	75.798803752296	0.92536904558707	91	5	1	2	4	1	2	16	DRY	L
2020-04-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-73	40.37	40.37	40.37	166.954244	0.0161	0.7061	2.38	3.0861	F	F	8.37	199.37	120	456.8413287122	76.271598663102	0.38398829691276	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-73	58.33	40	49.165	166.85588133333	0.2402	0.9302	2.38	3.3102	T	F	26.33	217.33	120	456.80608204541	76.220781418114	0.93893334693458	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-73	55.56	40.83	48.195	166.44763066667	0.2315	0.9215	2.38	3.3015	T	F	23.56	214.56	120	456.65969787889	76.009924732898	0.89643195765808	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-73	51.56	40.93	46.245	166.18304825	0.2525	0.9425	2.38	3.3225	T	F	19.56	210.56	120	456.5647469379	75.87332136963	0.8027091621807	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	57.47	40.97	49.22	165.88368933333	0.2648	0.9548	2.38	3.3348	T	F	25.47	210.47	119	455.9187337464	75.629481590034	0.92751649501547	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-28 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	56.39	40.78	48.585	166.96038666667	0.2915	0.9915	2.38	3.3715	T	F	24.39	217.39	119	456.30649523841	76.185108883516	0.91095475311554	91	5	1	2	4	1	2	16	DRY	L
2020-04-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	56.52	41.49	49.005	166.913264	0.2827	0.9827	2.38	3.3627	T	F	24.52	217.52	119	456.28954667477	76.160777564566	0.91308531720913	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	57.06	41.6	49.33	165.77996933333	0.1926	0.8926	2.38	3.2726	F	F	25.06	218.06	119	455.88132402462	75.575991916442	0.92153019297506	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-28 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	56.89	40.71	48.8	165.59989733333	0.1973	0.9073	2.38	3.2873	T	F	24.89	220.89	119	455.81635225624	75.483141136488	0.91894128295876	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	56.38	41.65	49.015	165.95258513043	0.1962	0.9062	2.38	3.2862	T	F	24.38	219.38	119	455.94357763033	75.665015381373	0.91078927282231	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	54.56	39.84	47.2	166.68556	0.2353	0.2453	2.38	2.6253	F	F	22.56	212.56	119	456.20762000784	76.043222617274	0.87675043345361	91	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	54.76	38.93	46.845	166.83162933333	0.3059	0.3859	2.38	2.7659	F	F	22.76	221.76	119	456.26018041202	76.118629298059	0.8808822188889	91	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-27 16:01:19	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	54.35	39.79	47.07	166.89455066667	0.2997	0.3797	2.38	2.7597	F	F	22.35	221.35	119	456.28281550561	76.15111547073	0.87230540364567	91	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	53.17	39.65	46.41	166.652104	0.3487	0.4187	2.38	2.7987	F	F	21.17	220.17	119	456.19557872715	76.025953030377	0.84527145771305	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	53.07	38.85	45.96	166.46033333333	0.4161	0.7861	2.38	3.1661	F	F	21.07	220.07	119	456.12653804535	75.926975565207	0.84281868630636	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-27 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	53.23	37.72	45.475	166.2114755	0.47	1.05	2.38	3.43	T	F	21.23	218.23	119	456.03689486777	75.798565178411	0.84673094878405	91	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-27 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	50.92	39.78	45.35	167.68345298779	0.4921	1.3721	2.36	3.7321	T	F	18.92	202.92	119	456.56630557928	76.558614637414	0.78399398966441	91	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-26 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	50.14	38.94	44.54	168.49559333333	0.5661	1.5161	2.36	3.8761	T	F	18.14	221.14	119	456.85755337809	76.978484525256	0.75985325563431	91	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	49.67	38.55	44.11	168.65609466667	0.5416	1.3516	2.36	3.7116	T	F	17.67	217.67	119	456.9150409111	77.061506394526	0.7446267160541	91	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	50.93	38.19	44.56	167.83604	0.5882	1.5082	2.36	3.8682	T	F	18.93	220.93	119	456.62107180853	76.637472472899	0.78429408979911	91	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	44.01	38.47	41.24	168.08095595426	0.3866	1.2866	2.35	3.6366	T	F	12.01	210.01	119	456.70893219465	76.764073916127	0.53102753943681	91	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	47.27	38.41	42.84	167.59395446162	0.3882	1.3682	2.36	3.7282	T	F	15.27	216.27	119	456.53417306747	76.512367411242	0.65975847107413	91	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	47.32	36.75	42.035	168.22454619259	0.3096	1.4596	1.7	3.1596	T	F	15.32	208.32	119	456.76041789921	76.838314019831	0.66163376735171	91	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	47.35	36.79	42.07	168.32463022568	0.3061	1.5961	1.87	3.4661	T	F	15.35	215.35	119	456.79629291832	76.890067093938	0.6627570286999	91	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	46.69	37.19	41.94	168.27492830953	0.2371	1.5471	1.87	3.4171	T	F	14.69	213.69	119	456.77847845734	76.864365715747	0.63772659643265	91	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2020-04-25 11:57:34	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	49.46	37.18	43.32	167.70070536459	0.2537	1.3137	1.86	3.1737	T	F	17.46	222.46	119	456.57249883265	76.567530104308	0.73766404087157	91	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	49.49	37.22	43.355	167.56144151435	0.2537	1.2037	2.32	3.5237	T	F	17.49	222.49	119	456.52249818742	76.495567880015	0.73866462012166	91	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	49.07	36.34	42.705	168.06077944619	0.2926	1.1826	2.3	3.4826	T	F	17.07	224.07	119	456.70169620272	76.753643038224	0.72448064092494	91	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-24 23:57:48	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	49.49	39.77	44.63	167.12375739073	0.1902	1.1302	2.25	3.3802	T	F	17.49	227.49	119	456.3652389222	76.269473471198	0.73866462012166	91	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-24 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	48.11	39.34	43.725	169.5845629378	0.1902	1.0902	2.19	3.2802	T	F	16.11	216.11	119	457.247135322	77.54205559814	0.69070709380519	91	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	51.74	38.01	44.875	169.07607097656	0.2493	1.1493	2.19	3.3393	T	F	19.74	225.74	119	457.06535499472	77.278814402017	0.80779101919479	91	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	DRY	L
2020-04-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	59.33	41.34	50.335	167.58944575233	0.1564	1.0264	2.4	3.4264	T	F	27.33	234.33	119	456.53255411956	76.510037712794	0.95039063185308	91	5	1	2	4	1	2	16	DRY	L
2020-04-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	59.33	41.34	50.335	168.13790371022	0.1562	0.9462	2.38	3.3262	T	F	27.33	225.33	119	456.72935362442	76.793516081332	0.95039063185308	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	58.38	40.78	49.58	167.69209886386	0.1881	0.9181	2.39	3.3081	T	F	26.38	238.38	119	456.56940930736	76.563082523784	0.93955134886687	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	55.94	39.2	47.57	169.18375757311	0.0675	0.7075	1.98	2.6875	F	F	23.94	227.94	119	457.10387137604	77.334550560613	0.90328054148693	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	55.94	39.2	47.57	169.40823120101	0.0675	0.6975	2.14	2.8375	F	F	23.94	234.94	119	457.18412524015	77.450753990115	0.90328054148693	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	52.99	37.06	45.025	168.6613852689	0.1164	0.7164	2.18	2.8964	F	F	20.99	231.99	119	456.91693547253	77.06424328962	0.8408382086736	91	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-23 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	55.96	41.17	48.565	168.64261096166	0.0997	0.6497	2.33	2.9797	F	F	23.96	228.96	119	456.91021228943	77.054531175537	0.9036315830979	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 08:01:13	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	55.96	41.17	48.565	168.76155513128	0.0997	0.6497	2.43	3.0797	F	F	23.96	220.96	119	456.95280143522	77.116065391801	0.9036315830979	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	56.21	41.61	48.91	168.58564322538	0.1051	0.6551	2.51	3.1651	F	F	24.21	230.21	119	456.889809866	77.025062479381	0.90794111900178	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	57.91	38.54	48.225	169.51674294436	0.0404	0.7304	1.82	2.5504	F	F	25.91	226.91	119	457.22290398103	77.506937482424	0.93354609549178	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-22 19:57:50	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	57.91	42.05	49.98	171.40187812464	0.0225	0.7125	3.1	3.8125	T	F	25.91	232.91	119	457.89489005133	78.484044138475	0.93354609549178	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	57.91	41.1	49.505	170.00874499712	0.002	0.852	3.27	4.122	T	F	25.91	234.91	119	457.39859626498	77.761761314453	0.93354609549178	91	5	1	2	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-04-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	46.89	38.9	42.895	174.17806015312	0.0181	0.6481	3.14	3.7881	T	F	14.89	214.89	119	458.87866379564	79.92659550558	0.64537987127071	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-22 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	41.49	38.9	40.195	174.87475628177	0.0175	0.6475	3.17	3.8175	T	F	9.49	201.49	119	459.12445954232	80.289277965463	0.42846190998835	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	212	-74	42.51	40.3	41.405	174.10663947868	0	0.62	3.05	3.67	T	F	10.51	208.51	119	458.85344185408	79.889430774442	0.46978739087449	91	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L